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A California aquifer may have crossed the point of no return
- morkalork 3mo agoYou all knew how it was going to end, for decades, and did nothing. https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/location-maximum-land-subsidence-us-levels-1925-and-1977 https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/location-maximum-land-subs...
- toomuchtodo 3mo agoI think it’s somewhat fortunate when these aquifers permanently compress, it takes the land out of agriculture production as a sort of forced conservation, because in many ways, humans cannot be trusted to be responsible stewards of such a natural finite resource. https://uttoncenter.unm.edu/resources/2026-06-1-update-paper_final_distribution.pdf https://uttoncenter.unm.edu/resources/2026-06-1-update-paper... https://www.organicproducenetwork.com/organic-growers/california-farmers-face-water-challenges-amid-climate-change-and-regulations https://www.organicproducenetwork.com/organic-growers/califo...
- altcognito 3mo ago? The land isn't conserved if you can't use it?
- thaumasiotes 3mo agoConservation is basically defined as being unused by humans.
- Eji1700 3mo agoUh...they're just going to pave it and throw something over it. Edit- To be clear maybe not specifically in this case, but "oops we've ruined this ecosystem to the point we can't farm it" rarely ends with "better move down the road and let nature reclaim it". It's a lot more "cool now we can put strip malls/data centers/whatever here"
- toomuchtodo 3mo agoIt’s unlikely strip malls and data centers will be built on the land, but utility solar PV is an acceptable use that requires no water, is beneficial to the local environment, and gives the land 20-30 years to recover from agricultural use. It takes 600 to 3,000 years for 6 inches of topsoil to develop naturally, as it generally requires 100 to 500 years to form just a single inch. Underground water aquifers operate on similar timescales, if they can regenerate at all. The land needs time to recover from the demands of present timeline position humans. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrivoltaics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrivoltaics https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301479722019119 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014... https://cleantechnica.com/2026/01/03/21-gigawatts-of-solar-for-california-land-that-can-no-longer-be-used-for-agriculture/ https://cleantechnica.com/2026/01/03/21-gigawatts-of-solar-f... https://www.goldenstatecleanenergy.com/valley-clean-infrastructure-plan https://www.goldenstatecleanenergy.com/valley-clean-infrastr...
- notabotiswear 3mo agoPlanting more PV farms isn't better, it just convolutes the equation and hides the true sources of damage behind things with a less negative image, and would eventually just prove Jevon's law, one way or the other. Not preceding "using better" with "consuming less" (on a system-wide basis) would get you the same result as going for recycling while forgoing the first R: empty, marketing points in green-coloured font.
- toomuchtodo 3mo agoIt gives the land time to recover and requires nothing from it, nor human labor. All racking and conductors can be removed from the land in the future to return it to its original condition. All components can be recycled today, through metal and ewaste streams. It hides no externalities or harm. It quietly produces energy more efficiently than any crop, with no inputs besides the sun shining. As my links demonstrate, California plans on developing 21GW of solar on farmland that no longer has water available for it.
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- altcognito 3mo agoI don't know why you got downvoted. In any case, this makes "sense", but doesn't make sense in that if we nuke the land in some way, distort it from a peaceful balance, I don't think it is "conserved"
- toomuchtodo 3mo agoThe land is conserved by not being farmed. https://www.tuletrust.org/land-fallowing-program https://www.tuletrust.org/land-fallowing-program
- boothby 3mo agoSci-fi brings us some optimism on that front. You can build out Brawndo distribution pipes overland.
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- cryptoegorophy 3mo agoWhat can you realistically do?
- theossuary 3mo agoStart by not electing a pedophile who calls climate change a hoax
- ToucanLoucan 3mo agoRight?! Like there’s so much you can do. * Vote for fucks sake. Bare minimum and stop making fucking excuses both for yourself not doing it and for politicians you otherwise support burying their heads in the sand. * Stop buying stupid shit on the internet. Every package you don’t get delivered means less CO2. * Fix shit instead of replacing it. The greenest EV on earth is more CO2 intense than the car you’ve already got (assuming you keep it in good working order) Like yeah global policy needs to get better across the board, and the burden has been unfairly and ridiculously shifted to consumers. True. But at the same time consumers could buy less shit overall, still have very comfortable existences, and promote economic degrowth a little bit every day. Oh yeah and stop using fucking AI for anything besides code because it sucks at everything else, and only use it for code you can’t otherwise complete.
- kuerbel 3mo agoI agree but >Fix shit instead of replacing it. The greenest EV on earth is more CO2 intense than the car you’ve already got (assuming you keep it in good working order) This is not correct at all... https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/are-electric-vehicles-definitely-better-climate-gas-powered-cars https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/are-electric-vehicles-defini... one source of many. Also local pollution is reduced, e.g. nox and particles.
- ToucanLoucan 3mo agoValid pushback! That said going through the MIT study quickly (and I may be wrong, feel free to correct me further) it doesn't seem to include CO2 from overseas shipping of materials and/or finished vehicles, and it also only seems to factor in tailpipe emissions as opposed to emissions from things like tire wear which is notably worse on EVs due to their weight. But again, I'll concede the point anyway. You could however say exactly what I said about so many other classes of products. Home appliances, electronics, tools, on and on.
- bayarearefugee 3mo ago> You all knew how it was going to end, for decades, and did nothing. And the same is true for global carbon-related climate change, for which the real bill will become increasingly due over the next 10 years. We are all insanely fucked and our response is still just to mostly to ignore it and hope it goes away.
- darth_avocado 3mo ago> We are all insanely fucked and our response is still just to mostly to ignore it and hope it goes away. Correction. It’s the next generations who are insanely fucked. People don’t hope it goes away, they think they won’t be around to see the consequences.
- ares623 3mo agoMother Nature has always been historically very considerate with regards to our schedules.
- p-e-w 3mo agoDoing something about this is the job of the government, not of “you all”. If taking care of such essential matters is somehow the responsibility of society as a whole, we may as well get rid of governments altogether.
- arjie 3mo agoGovernments are just a structure for people to coordinate collective action. In democracies, it’s not that distinct from “us all”. We exercise this responsibility through representatives but they are our agents not our rulers. Outcomes depend on our ability to direct them, and the ability of our opponents to do so likewise. For the most part, I like to forward evolve solutions so I happily don’t care if Las Vegas runs out of water or whatever. I’ll find a way later. So I take responsibility for my bit. I just don’t care about this particular negative outcome.
- toomuchtodo 3mo agoFunny enough, Las Vegas has been planning for this outcome and won't run out of water. Only agriculture users will be impacted, who consume ~50% of the total annual Colorado River Basin. So, to your point, the ag users responsible for overconsumption for decades will be the ones primarily exposed to the outcome. Municipal water systems will continue to function as they do today with available water reserves and flows.
- softjobs 3mo agoThank you for posting that, saved me from doing so. Ignorance and stupidity are the greatest threats to human survival - but perhaps it's for the best.
- effnorwood 3mo ago[dead]
- LanceH 3mo agoI see parallels between water rights "xxx acre feet per year" without regard for how much water is incoming, and pension funds where they simply declare how much will be paid out. I really can't tell the difference between people being uncaring or just stupid about either.
- p-e-w 3mo agoThe whole pension fund concept only works because it declares how much is going to be paid out. Who’s going to pay in if the fund expects a guaranteed commitment but refuses to give such in return?
- JumpCrisscross 3mo ago> Who’s going to pay in if the fund expects a guaranteed commitment but refuses to give such in return? Literally defined contribution [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defined_contribution_plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defined_contribution_plan
- ericd 3mo ago401ks don’t guarantee results for a given amount of input, and people still stuff away lots into them?
- hiitsmyaccount 3mo ago[dead]
- hvb2 3mo agoThe tax code is also really powerful in sending money to certain products
- arjie 3mo agoIt’s called a defined contribution pension as opposed to a defined benefit pension. They exist.
- augment_me 3mo agoWho cares there is so much more to exploit. For example no-one has yet moved massive freshwater icebergs by boat, and its up for grabs!
- arjie 3mo agoPretty clever idea. Sadly uneconomical when compared to desalination because I love the idea of iceberg calf hunting. Ripe for a novel Moby Dick - The target is already a large white object. Call me Icemael. Got a bit of a Cold War era pykrete like project feeling.
- b3lvedere 3mo agoGiven enough solar/wind/battery power i do wonder if a desalination plant could run pretty cheaply. A quick chat with ChatGPT tells me it should be feasible. Roughly investing around 1 billion dollars and around 40 million per year for keeping it run producing around 100.000 m³ per year. Cost price of the water would be around $0.20 per m³. Could run for more than 25 years.
- peterbecich 3mo agoThey are not popular. See the canceled Poseidon facility in Huntington Beach.
- b3lvedere 3mo agoI did a little research. Although also not that popular, the one in Carlsbad in San Diego did get built. Matter of timing and costs it seems. Also didn’t help that Poseidon wanted big profit guarantees.
- augment_me 3mo agoHow bout a really big iceberg chunk, like massive. There has to be a trade-off at some size. Also nice reference and funny in probably most ways to think about it thanks for a laugh :D
- marking-time 3mo ago>In an aquifer that’s permanently collapsed, artificial recharge—pumping water forcibly back underground—is the only option, according to Shirzaei. That’s expensive and carries the risk of triggering earthquakes. I have spent most of my life in the San Joaquin Valley and what I have been wondering about over the past few years is what is the effect removing all that water from the faults. Specifically, does this water removal cause the stresses along the faults to build making the resulting earthquakes larger?
- stevenwoo 3mo agoToward the end it briefly discusses a possible solution - expensive injection of water into aquifers that might have the side effect of triggering earthquakes like fracking for petroleum or some types of geothermal - there’s no winning.
- Aquitard 3mo agoIt has more possible side effects than just earthquakes (not my expertise in a geological stable country). One such side effect of mixing two types of groundwater is the potential to release minerals in the geological medium that can be above beneficial use criteria (and ultimately contaminate the groundwater). There is a USGS program called PHREEQC that is used for this specific type of modelling.
- JumpCrisscross 3mo ago> does this water removal cause the stresses along the faults to build making the resulting earthquakes larger? Water lubricates fault zones [1]. Putting it into an inactive fault makes it active. Taking it out of an active fault makes the quakes less frequent and more powerful. [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013795219316928 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00137...
- ColdStream 3mo agoThere are some reasonable books by William T Volleman called 'Carbon Ideologies' it is all about Nuclear and Coal power. Regardless of that, they are written focusing on the people that would be reading those books in a few hundred years time. The justification being that those that read it today already understand the issues. As such they are focused on a world that is deeply resource depleted and much hotter. But it is the opening chapter that is very explicit in trying to highlight how most people live today. It isn't that we don't know what is happening or that we do not care, it is just that we have needs and wants that unfortunately have long term blow back. We are just trying to take care of others, but that is leading down a less desirable path. I thought it was a great message that needs to sent to the future. The aquifers are being drained, but it was being done to feed the people. Yes, it could have been handled much better but that core driving force behind it will probably be the same in hundred of years from now. If that message isn't sent forwards, the stories that will be made in our place will not be very kind to us. If that matters or not, that is up to you to decide. And that is the whole debate on 'What is legacy?'.
- rho138 3mo agoWe shouldn’t be thought of kindly. We’re essentially post food scarcity in the US and children are still sent to school starving. Not only did we fail the here and now, but we’ve failed our future brothers and sisters.
- voakbasda 3mo agoThe hilarity of being post food scarcity when the quality of food in stores has declined precipitously both in terms of nutrient density and taste. Most of the processed food contains high fructose corn syrup, sketchy preservatives, and worse. Even if people think we “succeeded” on this front, the truth is that we have failed. The ultimate consequences of our failure have yet to play out.
- rexpop 3mo agoBoth are true: modern food systems can improve availability and shelf-stability while still degrading average nutritional quality.
- rayiner 3mo agoMost of the southwest should not have people living in it. It's a fake place that is enabled to exist by massive and unnatural engineering projects, like dams on the Colorado river. We need to create a long term plan to relocate the population to other parts of the country.
- aesthesia 3mo agoYou can make this kind of claim about living in lots of different places. Some amount of engineering and technology has been necessary to enable humans to live in most parts of the world. What determines the line?
- rayiner 3mo agoAccess to resources that are used in prodigious volumes, like fresh water, seems like a good place to draw the line.
- JumpCrisscross 3mo ago> The only way to know for sure whether permanent compaction has occurred is through expensive core samples or other measurements at depth Wouldn't it be for rain to fall and the aquifer's levels to rebound less than expected?
- stevenwoo 3mo agoThat is what the one expert quoted said but others thought it might still come back over a longer time period - I interpreted it to mean that method as being more accurate than the one season refill rate.
- tesnorindian 3mo agoYes, looks like they are acting like a sponge whose efficiency to retain water decreases as time passes.
- aeternum 3mo ago[flagged]
- Hnrobert42 3mo agoAnyone can post stories to HN.
- rayiner 3mo agoWhy can't we work up the political outrage over water-wasting agriculture in California that we managed to gin up over data centers: https://finance.biggo.com/news/202508220112_Data_Centers_vs_Alfalfa_Water_Usage_Battle https://finance.biggo.com/news/202508220112_Data_Centers_vs_... > Alfalfa irrigation (Colorado River): 1.6 trillion gallons annually > Google data centers (global): 6.4 billion gallons in 2023 > Thermoelectric power plants: 41% of total US water use EDIT: that page has a correction to some of the other numbers on the page, but the 6.4 billion gallons number quoted above for Google's data centers is in line with other sources: https://mostpolicyinitiative.org/science-note/data-center-water-use/ https://mostpolicyinitiative.org/science-note/data-center-wa... ("Google reported their data center water consumption increased from 4.3 billion gallons in 2021 to 6.1 billion gallons in 2024.").
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- fastball 3mo agoThe thing about data centers and thermoelectric power plants is that you can make them effectively closed cycle, vs agriculture where that is somewhat intractable. Not saying that is true today though.
- darig 3mo ago[dead]
- avazhi 3mo agoProbably because food and agriculture (in the region that produces a quarter of America’s domestic food supply) are required for life, while data centers aren’t?
- scarmig 3mo agoAlthough delicious, alfalfa is not required for life. A lot of it goes to Saudi Arabia, who use it for horses and cattle, as the Saudis banned it domestically for being wasteful for water usage.
- Aquitard 3mo agoUnfortunately, determining a sustainable groundwater yield is rarely straightforward. It typically requires extensive long-term monitoring, detailed hydrogeological investigations, and often sophisticated numerical groundwater models to understand aquifer recharge, storage, hydraulic connectivity, and environmental water requirements. These assessments then inform groundwater management areas, allocation limits, and licensing frameworks designed to keep extraction within sustainable bounds. Even then, there is significant uncertainties. Many sustainable yield estimates are based on historical climate conditions and recharge rates. As rainfall declines and droughts become more frequent or prolonged, aquifer recharge may decrease, reducing the volume of groundwater that can be sustainably extracted. In some regions, the number of licensed users may ultimately exceed future sustainable allocations identified through updated modelling and monitoring. This creates a difficult policy challenge, as regulators may be required to reduce allocations or revoke licences from existing users, often with substantial social, economic and political consequences. Groundwater management is further complicated by the fact that aquifers are not homogeneous reservoirs. They are complex geological systems, with groundwater availability and flow behaviour controlled by local stratigraphy, structural features, recharge mechanisms, hydraulic connectivity, and ecological dependencies. Effective management therefore requires aquifer-specific assessments rather than broad, one size fits all approaches. There are probably very few hydrogeologists browsing HN so hello to any colleagues that are out there.
- water-data-dude 3mo agoFor anyone interested in the history of water in the American West (what's different about the west, and how did we get here?), I recommend the extremely interesting and readable book Cadillac Desert, by Marc Reisner.
- throwaway2037 3mo agoI have been reading articles like this for more than 20 years. Really, it feels like click/rage-bait at this point. The answer is pretty simple: (1) Build desalination plants (Calif already has a few) and (2) switch to more efficient uses of water in agriculture (drip irrigation, that is already widely practiced in water stressed areas of the world). Sure it costs money, but California is insanely rich and can afford to make these changes. For the last 100 years, Calif has been farming on "easy mode". Ok, so now it gets a little bit harder. > California’s Central Valley, where one-quarter of the food produced in the United States is grown I am so tired of this quote. It is 25% of total (economic) value, not by calories or volume or weight. This quote is very misleading.
- eudamoniac 3mo agoIt's not even misleading, it's just a lie. There's no way to interpret it correctly from the words.
- tesnorindian 3mo agoAs the Super El-Nino is at its peak, South India is facing an acute water crisis https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/cauvery-water-management-authority-upholds-cwrcs-order-to-karnataka-to-release-water-to-tamil-nadu/article71285829.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/cauvery-water-managem... #SaveWater #SaveElectricity #SaveFuel Interestingly none of our Govts. or Leaders are talking about conservation yet and the ancient water laws/standards don't take climate change into consideration. For eg. as per BIS IS 1172: 1993 standards an average Indian is entitled to 135 Liters of water per day when the actual supply is not even close to 50 liters per Indian per day. This is level of water crisis India is facing today.
- throwaway2037 3mo agoThe answer is desalination plants. Look at rich water-stressed countries in the Middle East and North Africa. All of them use extensive desalination plants. India has lots of very smart engineers. I am sure you can build them. Another thing: India needs to build the equivalent of the California State Water Project to move water from wet areas to dry areas. (China did the same.)
- tesnorindian 3mo ago+1 for moving water from wet areas to dry areas. But desalination plants comes at a huge cost.
- cobbzilla 3mo agoCalifornia has codified a water caste system. In 2015 (my last experience with this), citizens were ordered to cut water use 25% while ~400 pre-1914 claimants with magical "senior water rights" took 90% of the water. [1][2] We conserved, rates still rose, f*ck the poor the most, so that select farmers can use however much water they want. During a drought. As allowed and protected by law. [1]: https://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/drought/docs/tucp/curtailment_fact_sheet.pdf https://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/prog... [2]: https://archive.gov.ca.gov/archive/gov39/2015/04/01/news18913/index.html https://archive.gov.ca.gov/archive/gov39/2015/04/01/news1891...
- voakbasda 3mo agoI expect the people will realize how easy it is to disable agriculture pumps, located in the middle of nowhere, with no one around to protect them. When the law fails to protect the people, they will eventually do what it takes to protect themselves.
- euroderf 3mo agoWhen water is outlawed, only outlaws will have water.
- HenryMulligan 3mo agoTo preface this, I agree with the parent of your comment that doing water-intensive farming in California just doesn't make rational sense. However, you are seriously suggesting using guerilla tactics, against farmers of all people‽ You've got nothing on farmers. Many are hunters if you didn't know, and would start defending water pumps from hundreds of yards away (if you get my drift). Good luck ( ... not!).
- jefurii 3mo agoI took an agricultural ecology class in college in the early 90s and the professor predicted this would happen. I'd talk to farmer relatives and they'd get all angry and tell me nobody can tell me what to do on my land. More recently I'd talk to people about this and they'd tell me no way they'd eat less beef or stop drinking almond milk. Humans are idiots.
- k310 3mo ago"Farmers" in California are increasingly a few mega-businesses, with all the downside that comes with that. There were the usual signs blasting Newsom and Pelosi for "stealing" valuable water when half the central valley was underwater. Capitalism, Comrade!
- pvaldes 3mo agoDigging lots of tunnels to store rain will be maybe required. Fortunately is a solved technological problem. It just will be really expensive.
- ArekDymalski 3mo agoit's time to re-read "The water knife " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Water_Knife https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Water_Knife - but this time as a manual, not a fiction.
- NoRagrets 3mo agoAgriculture is important. Alfafa is important as it feeds most of the animals grown for food and anlso horses etc. 90% of American alfafa is used domestically and only around 3-5% of it is exported. The problem is California. 31% of California alfafa is exported and this is a state that has declared drought many times before. It’s a water thirsty state with grandfathered Ag water for farmers who essentially export water. California Ag is the problem. We need agriculture. We need alfalfa. We need to fix CA.