6 ms·

I wonder how Germany missed the semi manufacturing train? They had literally everything: universities, manufacturing culture, expertise and supporting supply ch

I wonder how Germany missed the semi manufacturing train? They had literally everything: universities, manufacturing culture, expertise and supporting supply chains, cash. I forgot, they also had ASML, freaking next door!

deleted 3mo ago
[deleted]
zuzululu 3mo ago
[flagged]
cherryteastain 3mo ago
They had a large memory manufacturer, Infineon, who spun out their memory division as Qimonda which then went bankrupt [1]. They were the 2nd largest in the world at one time apparently. Looking back, it's easy to say the German govt should have thrown them a billion or two to keep them afloat. However, state intervention was very unpopular at the time in economic circles, and there was much furor over bailouts following the 2008 crisis. Japan has an even sadder story. They were the DRAM top dog for a very long time. South Korea entirely ate their lunch. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qimonda https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qimonda
- paulmist 3mo ago
  Even better, Qimonda was ultimately bought (alongside all their patents) by SMIC [1] who is now the Chinese memory player. For 30 million. [1] https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/chinas-cxmt-is-set-to-challenge-dram https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/chinas-cxmt-is-set-to-...
  - stogot 3mo ago
    Wow, 7000 patents and all their IP and documentation
  - cherioo 3mo ago
    It’s CXMT (memory) not SMIC (logic)
- est31 3mo ago
  Infineon still exists as a semiconductor manufacturer. Their stock has gone crazy since start of the year as well.
- rfw300 3mo ago
  Germany’s austerity policy after 2008 may be one of the largest economic blunders in history. It would be one thing if they merely committed self-harm, but they also used their pull in the EU to drag the rest of the continent down with them. Reminded of Matt Yglesias’s excellent headline from 2010: Angela Merkel Lucky the Bar for “Worst German Leader” is Very High
  - kakacik 3mo ago
    One thing that I will never understand - how can german population not see through all that socialist bullshit she produced, promises undelivered, how much long term harm she generated across whole Europe (not just EU). Hard push for (now visibly) failed immigration at all costs, nuclear energy rollback (and she was nuclear physicist at least by her studies) and subsequent buying of foreign coal-based electricity, fragmentation of EU. She literally licked putin's boots well into Ukraine war and still thinks licking his ass is the correct course to solve war in Ukraine (which started 2014 and it was pretty nasty already back then, the world just didn't care also thanks to her). She is by far the biggest catastrophe modern Europe encountered after Hitler. She helped remove any proper fighting chance for the top dog Europe had for 21st century. She singlehandedly caused proper hate against EU in large parts of (not only) eastern EU population, and hence the rise of populist left or right wing politicians whose whole success story was just point at her failings and criticize, enough to get 20-30% of the votes and even win elections, repeatedly. She literally made people like Orban or Fico. She still admits no mistakes, even wants to become german president. How effin' out of touch with reality she is.
    - tonyhart7 3mo ago
      okay, that is going too far she has its flaws but remember that people vote for her, so its not only her fault
      - kakacik 3mo ago
        Yes people voted for her, she is still very popular. Doesn't change anything I said about her negative impact on entire continent that is extremely visible. Maybe she did tons of good so it somehow averages out, but I certainly haven't heard about it (now is your time to defend her), everybody saw consequences of her disastrous policies that affected entire bloc.
- atwrk 3mo ago
  > Looking back, it's easy to say the German govt should have thrown them a billion or two to keep them afloat. However, state intervention was very unpopular at the time in economic circles, and there was much furor over bailouts following the 2008 crisis. Absolutely, Germany essentially abandoned its position in industrial leadership solely due to neoliberal ideology. Just compare the trajectories of Germany and China in the last 20 years. One country planned and implemented a proper industrial policy, the other hummed and hawed about the infallibility of the market and thus essentially just gave up.
- ksec 3mo ago
  There were plenty of other DRAM manufacture before them as well. But the Boom and bust cycle wipe out those who weren't big enough or adequately prepared. Nearly every single DRAM cycle we go through the same thing. People are saying memory are so cheap we are going to get 32GB/ 64GB / 128GB very soon. Just like they did 2-3 years before. Then every single DRAM up cycle they were earning insane amount of money, with this one being exceptionally high. Not only covering their previous lost but also extra profits. And every single time people cry out price fixing. And every single time, Interviewer, financial reporters or share holders will ask TSMC's CEO Morris Chang the same question, and this is before TSMC was even well known in Tech cycle, will they make DRAM given it is just Fabs, TSMC could do it. And every single time in the past 20 - 30 years Morris had to explain the whole thing again. Frankly speaking I have been rumpling about DRAM being commodity on HN for nearly 20 years. It is the first time I have seen a few comments finally picking this up as shown in the current top comment.
  - whatever1 3mo ago
    I don’t remember any time in recent history where demand skyrocketed so fast and so far away from supply. In previous cycles you mostly had supply driven shortages (remember all the fires?). Maybe crypto surge was the closest to what we observe today? But again completely different magnitudes of demand. No company put 1T of capex for mining
paulmist 3mo ago
IIRC Taiwan took a page out of Singapore's playbook and went all in on electrical engineering and adjecent fields. It was very much a long-term strategy. Germany probably didn't feel nearly as much pressure, and was already very strong in all industry.
gruntled-worker 3mo ago
Chip fab locations have traditionally had more political than economic importance. Matrix multiplication chips and RAM have been the recent exception, while TSMC has long been the geopolitical exception. ASML's location only matters to the extent that it gets ordered not to sell to someone.
- ETH_start 3mo ago
  According to late Intel founder Andy Grove, having domestic manufacturing, including chip fabrication, is very important for a country's ability to innovate. https://www.citizenstrade.org/ctc/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/20100701_howtomakeanamericanjob_bloombergopinion.pdf https://www.citizenstrade.org/ctc/wp-content/uploads/2011/05...
fennecbutt 3mo ago
Memory has only really recently become lucrative. Germany still has heavy machinery, trains, drilling machines etc all of which will be needed for a long time regardless of whether the "bubble pops" or not.
- tw04 3mo ago
  Most of those now need memory to function. At some point it becomes a national security issue.
  - fennecbutt 3mo ago
    That's not really a gotcha, because my train doesn't need a TB of dram.
    - Schiendelman 3mo ago
      Heavy machinery is starting to. Computer vision for robots is a big deal, and takes quite a bit of processing power. Robotic mining, earthmoving, and even construction equipment is exactly where Germany will innovate. Not to mention drones - Rheinmetall needs DRAM...
      - fennecbutt 3mo ago
        I've been involved in the train industry before, not heavy industry yet unfortunately. And I can tell you that it doesn't matter how many advancements are made, thr hardware on the trains will be at least a decade behind. Siemens do be like that.
woadwarrior01 3mo ago
The AMD spinoff GlobalFoundries has a fab in Dresden.
GuB-42 3mo ago
> I wonder how Germany missed the semi manufacturing train? My best guess is that the connecting train was operated by the Deutsche Bahn
- linzhangrun 3mo ago
  lmao
repler 3mo ago
Siemens?
jdw64 3mo ago
Realistically, when it comes to the semiconductor market, there aren't many viable options outside of East Asia. I don't mean this in the sense that East Asians were somehow "chosen," but rather that the semiconductor industry inherently requires a large number of highly educated employees working together. The problem is that the working hours inevitably end up being very long. If you actually go work at one of those facilities, you have to wear a "cleanroom suit" (bunny suit), and it's physically demanding. What I'm saying is, you need highly educated personnel who can be mobilized at any time when a problem breaks out in the middle of the night, and who can be hired at relatively low cost. East Asia has a massive educational infrastructure — schools are very large-scale and the system is extremely well-developed — making it hard for other regions to compete. And indeed, the average working hours in countries that do semiconductor manufacturing are extremely long In other words, it's an industry where you have to grind white-collar workers as if they were blue-collar laborers.
- fakedang 3mo ago
  I believe some of the earliest Intel fabs were in New Mexico (Shiprock and Rio Rancho). What combination of the above did New Mexico have? When New Mexico and Germany had fabs, South Korea was still a developing country ruled by a brutal dictatorship. What happened was simple - both Taiwan and South Korea and now China took concerted steps in investing into their semiconductors businesses. South Korea did this indirectly through favourable arrangements for the industry players via the chaebol system, while China and Taiwan did this with more direct government investment into the industry. Sure, you can't just dump money into the industry and become a semiconductor player, else the Middle Eastern countries would have tried that ages ago. Yes, the talent being locally present is important but you're once again bringing up tired tropes about Asian working culture as being relevant.
  - jdw64 3mo ago
    I'm not saying Asian culture is the main factor. Yes, it's true that authoritarian governance driven by dictatorial regimes and chaebol politics has played a strong role, but fundamentally, the long working hours are simply inherent to this business. You brought up the New Mexico story quite well, but that place is notorious for the exploitation of Navajo women's labor. In the first place, the factory was occupied and shut down by the American Indian Movement. You know full well that this is a story about the exploitation of Native Americans, so why are you bringing it up like that? The history of Shiprock itself is, at its core, a history of "cheap, obedient labor." You frame it only as state-led investment, but the reality is that the culture behind it is complex. What my post is pointing out is not that "Asian culture is superior." What I'm pointing out is the harsh working conditions in Asia — where working hours are extremely long, and even highly educated workers are inevitably subjected to grueling hours. Why do you think TSMC's Arizona fab in the U.S. keeps getting delayed? The U.S. invested money through the CHIPS Act, but American engineers refuse to accept the "military-style 24/7 on-call readiness and brutal shift work" that exists in Taiwan. TSMC founder Morris Chang himself has pointed this out before. What I'm saying is that the educational infrastructure is so well-established that it's easy to produce a large supply of highly educated workers, and that these highly educated workers then have to be submissive to inhumane working conditions. This isn't about Asian superiority — it's actually pointing out something bad about Asia. But from the context of your comment, it seems like you misunderstood me as saying "Asian work culture is superior" and replied based on that assumption. That was never my intention. Before you leave a comment, I'd ask you to show some basic respect to others.
brcmthrowaway 3mo ago
Germany is done.
throwaway219450 3mo ago
Intel was supposed to build a fab in Magdeburg, which would have been great, but apparently the reason it was canned (2025) was they couldn't secure enough customers.
neonstatic 3mo ago
The Germany fetish still going strong I see.
- tonyhart7 3mo ago
  people don't want to admit that German is fell off
dist-epoch 3mo ago
same thing that happened to Japan/US: they financialized their economy, companies moved from making things to pushing papers and outsourcing the making to China
kakacik 3mo ago
> I wonder how Germany missed the semi manufacturing train? Socialism or more its german variant, a system that can spend much more than more capitalistic power holders can ever earn and doesn't really plan well for future. Just look at it - very protected jobs, stifling bureaucracy, very hard to fire people, brilliant folks are definitely not compensated accordingly compared to (below) average peers - more often than not they earn the same. Its not agile economy nor workforce by any means, in contrary. The feeling that the German Way (TM) is The Right Way, regardless of situation. If it worked in the past, it will in future, right. That leads to stagnation, complacency and when competition leap frogs them by the mile, surprised puzzled looks and wondering how it all happened.
zipy124 3mo ago
Not just ASML, but Zeiss the optics company is German and optics are one of the most important parts of lithography. Regardless there are fabs in Germany, I know of at least 7, most located in Dresden. They mostly focus on older larger nodes, since for the German auto/industrial sectors that is all that is required. It's a much bigger industry than other European nations, especially like the UK which only really has one main fab in Newport.
luke5441 3mo ago
The whole semi manufacturing(/electronics) supply chain moved to Asia in the 1980s. E.g. Siemens tried to compete but lost back then in the manufacturing part.
sometimelurker 3mo ago
apparently bosch semiconductor exists. whatever theyre doing over there they should do more of it tho, I want cheaper ram

deleted 3mo ago

[deleted]

zuzululu 3mo ago

[flagged]

cherryteastain 3mo ago

They had a large memory manufacturer, Infineon, who spun out their memory division as Qimonda which then went bankrupt [1]. They were the 2nd largest in the world at one time apparently. Looking back, it's easy to say the German govt should have thrown them a billion or two to keep them afloat. However, state intervention was very unpopular at the time in economic circles, and there was much furor over bailouts following the 2008 crisis. Japan has an even sadder story. They were the DRAM top dog for a very long time. South Korea entirely ate their lunch. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qimonda https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qimonda

paulmist 3mo ago
Even better, Qimonda was ultimately bought (alongside all their patents) by SMIC [1] who is now the Chinese memory player. For 30 million. [1] https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/chinas-cxmt-is-set-to-challenge-dram https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/chinas-cxmt-is-set-to-...
- stogot 3mo ago
  Wow, 7000 patents and all their IP and documentation
- cherioo 3mo ago
  It’s CXMT (memory) not SMIC (logic)
est31 3mo ago
Infineon still exists as a semiconductor manufacturer. Their stock has gone crazy since start of the year as well.
rfw300 3mo ago
Germany’s austerity policy after 2008 may be one of the largest economic blunders in history. It would be one thing if they merely committed self-harm, but they also used their pull in the EU to drag the rest of the continent down with them. Reminded of Matt Yglesias’s excellent headline from 2010: Angela Merkel Lucky the Bar for “Worst German Leader” is Very High
- kakacik 3mo ago
  One thing that I will never understand - how can german population not see through all that socialist bullshit she produced, promises undelivered, how much long term harm she generated across whole Europe (not just EU). Hard push for (now visibly) failed immigration at all costs, nuclear energy rollback (and she was nuclear physicist at least by her studies) and subsequent buying of foreign coal-based electricity, fragmentation of EU. She literally licked putin's boots well into Ukraine war and still thinks licking his ass is the correct course to solve war in Ukraine (which started 2014 and it was pretty nasty already back then, the world just didn't care also thanks to her). She is by far the biggest catastrophe modern Europe encountered after Hitler. She helped remove any proper fighting chance for the top dog Europe had for 21st century. She singlehandedly caused proper hate against EU in large parts of (not only) eastern EU population, and hence the rise of populist left or right wing politicians whose whole success story was just point at her failings and criticize, enough to get 20-30% of the votes and even win elections, repeatedly. She literally made people like Orban or Fico. She still admits no mistakes, even wants to become german president. How effin' out of touch with reality she is.
  - tonyhart7 3mo ago
    okay, that is going too far she has its flaws but remember that people vote for her, so its not only her fault
    - kakacik 3mo ago
      Yes people voted for her, she is still very popular. Doesn't change anything I said about her negative impact on entire continent that is extremely visible. Maybe she did tons of good so it somehow averages out, but I certainly haven't heard about it (now is your time to defend her), everybody saw consequences of her disastrous policies that affected entire bloc.
atwrk 3mo ago
> Looking back, it's easy to say the German govt should have thrown them a billion or two to keep them afloat. However, state intervention was very unpopular at the time in economic circles, and there was much furor over bailouts following the 2008 crisis. Absolutely, Germany essentially abandoned its position in industrial leadership solely due to neoliberal ideology. Just compare the trajectories of Germany and China in the last 20 years. One country planned and implemented a proper industrial policy, the other hummed and hawed about the infallibility of the market and thus essentially just gave up.
ksec 3mo ago
There were plenty of other DRAM manufacture before them as well. But the Boom and bust cycle wipe out those who weren't big enough or adequately prepared. Nearly every single DRAM cycle we go through the same thing. People are saying memory are so cheap we are going to get 32GB/ 64GB / 128GB very soon. Just like they did 2-3 years before. Then every single DRAM up cycle they were earning insane amount of money, with this one being exceptionally high. Not only covering their previous lost but also extra profits. And every single time people cry out price fixing. And every single time, Interviewer, financial reporters or share holders will ask TSMC's CEO Morris Chang the same question, and this is before TSMC was even well known in Tech cycle, will they make DRAM given it is just Fabs, TSMC could do it. And every single time in the past 20 - 30 years Morris had to explain the whole thing again. Frankly speaking I have been rumpling about DRAM being commodity on HN for nearly 20 years. It is the first time I have seen a few comments finally picking this up as shown in the current top comment.
- whatever1 3mo ago
  I don’t remember any time in recent history where demand skyrocketed so fast and so far away from supply. In previous cycles you mostly had supply driven shortages (remember all the fires?). Maybe crypto surge was the closest to what we observe today? But again completely different magnitudes of demand. No company put 1T of capex for mining

paulmist 3mo ago

IIRC Taiwan took a page out of Singapore's playbook and went all in on electrical engineering and adjecent fields. It was very much a long-term strategy. Germany probably didn't feel nearly as much pressure, and was already very strong in all industry.

gruntled-worker 3mo ago

Chip fab locations have traditionally had more political than economic importance. Matrix multiplication chips and RAM have been the recent exception, while TSMC has long been the geopolitical exception. ASML's location only matters to the extent that it gets ordered not to sell to someone.

ETH_start 3mo ago
According to late Intel founder Andy Grove, having domestic manufacturing, including chip fabrication, is very important for a country's ability to innovate. https://www.citizenstrade.org/ctc/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/20100701_howtomakeanamericanjob_bloombergopinion.pdf https://www.citizenstrade.org/ctc/wp-content/uploads/2011/05...

fennecbutt 3mo ago

Memory has only really recently become lucrative. Germany still has heavy machinery, trains, drilling machines etc all of which will be needed for a long time regardless of whether the "bubble pops" or not.

tw04 3mo ago
Most of those now need memory to function. At some point it becomes a national security issue.
- fennecbutt 3mo ago
  That's not really a gotcha, because my train doesn't need a TB of dram.
  - Schiendelman 3mo ago
    Heavy machinery is starting to. Computer vision for robots is a big deal, and takes quite a bit of processing power. Robotic mining, earthmoving, and even construction equipment is exactly where Germany will innovate. Not to mention drones - Rheinmetall needs DRAM...
    - fennecbutt 3mo ago
      I've been involved in the train industry before, not heavy industry yet unfortunately. And I can tell you that it doesn't matter how many advancements are made, thr hardware on the trains will be at least a decade behind. Siemens do be like that.

woadwarrior01 3mo ago

The AMD spinoff GlobalFoundries has a fab in Dresden.

GuB-42 3mo ago

> I wonder how Germany missed the semi manufacturing train? My best guess is that the connecting train was operated by the Deutsche Bahn

linzhangrun 3mo ago
lmao

repler 3mo ago

Siemens?

jdw64 3mo ago

Realistically, when it comes to the semiconductor market, there aren't many viable options outside of East Asia. I don't mean this in the sense that East Asians were somehow "chosen," but rather that the semiconductor industry inherently requires a large number of highly educated employees working together. The problem is that the working hours inevitably end up being very long. If you actually go work at one of those facilities, you have to wear a "cleanroom suit" (bunny suit), and it's physically demanding. What I'm saying is, you need highly educated personnel who can be mobilized at any time when a problem breaks out in the middle of the night, and who can be hired at relatively low cost. East Asia has a massive educational infrastructure — schools are very large-scale and the system is extremely well-developed — making it hard for other regions to compete. And indeed, the average working hours in countries that do semiconductor manufacturing are extremely long In other words, it's an industry where you have to grind white-collar workers as if they were blue-collar laborers.

fakedang 3mo ago
I believe some of the earliest Intel fabs were in New Mexico (Shiprock and Rio Rancho). What combination of the above did New Mexico have? When New Mexico and Germany had fabs, South Korea was still a developing country ruled by a brutal dictatorship. What happened was simple - both Taiwan and South Korea and now China took concerted steps in investing into their semiconductors businesses. South Korea did this indirectly through favourable arrangements for the industry players via the chaebol system, while China and Taiwan did this with more direct government investment into the industry. Sure, you can't just dump money into the industry and become a semiconductor player, else the Middle Eastern countries would have tried that ages ago. Yes, the talent being locally present is important but you're once again bringing up tired tropes about Asian working culture as being relevant.
- jdw64 3mo ago
  I'm not saying Asian culture is the main factor. Yes, it's true that authoritarian governance driven by dictatorial regimes and chaebol politics has played a strong role, but fundamentally, the long working hours are simply inherent to this business. You brought up the New Mexico story quite well, but that place is notorious for the exploitation of Navajo women's labor. In the first place, the factory was occupied and shut down by the American Indian Movement. You know full well that this is a story about the exploitation of Native Americans, so why are you bringing it up like that? The history of Shiprock itself is, at its core, a history of "cheap, obedient labor." You frame it only as state-led investment, but the reality is that the culture behind it is complex. What my post is pointing out is not that "Asian culture is superior." What I'm pointing out is the harsh working conditions in Asia — where working hours are extremely long, and even highly educated workers are inevitably subjected to grueling hours. Why do you think TSMC's Arizona fab in the U.S. keeps getting delayed? The U.S. invested money through the CHIPS Act, but American engineers refuse to accept the "military-style 24/7 on-call readiness and brutal shift work" that exists in Taiwan. TSMC founder Morris Chang himself has pointed this out before. What I'm saying is that the educational infrastructure is so well-established that it's easy to produce a large supply of highly educated workers, and that these highly educated workers then have to be submissive to inhumane working conditions. This isn't about Asian superiority — it's actually pointing out something bad about Asia. But from the context of your comment, it seems like you misunderstood me as saying "Asian work culture is superior" and replied based on that assumption. That was never my intention. Before you leave a comment, I'd ask you to show some basic respect to others.

brcmthrowaway 3mo ago

Germany is done.

throwaway219450 3mo ago

Intel was supposed to build a fab in Magdeburg, which would have been great, but apparently the reason it was canned (2025) was they couldn't secure enough customers.

neonstatic 3mo ago

The Germany fetish still going strong I see.

tonyhart7 3mo ago
people don't want to admit that German is fell off

dist-epoch 3mo ago

same thing that happened to Japan/US: they financialized their economy, companies moved from making things to pushing papers and outsourcing the making to China

kakacik 3mo ago

> I wonder how Germany missed the semi manufacturing train? Socialism or more its german variant, a system that can spend much more than more capitalistic power holders can ever earn and doesn't really plan well for future. Just look at it - very protected jobs, stifling bureaucracy, very hard to fire people, brilliant folks are definitely not compensated accordingly compared to (below) average peers - more often than not they earn the same. Its not agile economy nor workforce by any means, in contrary. The feeling that the German Way (TM) is The Right Way, regardless of situation. If it worked in the past, it will in future, right. That leads to stagnation, complacency and when competition leap frogs them by the mile, surprised puzzled looks and wondering how it all happened.

zipy124 3mo ago

Not just ASML, but Zeiss the optics company is German and optics are one of the most important parts of lithography. Regardless there are fabs in Germany, I know of at least 7, most located in Dresden. They mostly focus on older larger nodes, since for the German auto/industrial sectors that is all that is required. It's a much bigger industry than other European nations, especially like the UK which only really has one main fab in Newport.

luke5441 3mo ago

The whole semi manufacturing(/electronics) supply chain moved to Asia in the 1980s. E.g. Siemens tried to compete but lost back then in the manufacturing part.

sometimelurker 3mo ago

apparently bosch semiconductor exists. whatever theyre doing over there they should do more of it tho, I want cheaper ram