7 ms·

Iran stops negotiations with U.S., vows to 'completely' block Strait of Hormuz

111 points by dgellow 5mo ago

DivingForGold 5mo ago
Here we go ...
david927 5mo ago
A CAPE ratio of 40x and record-high margin debt; what could go wrong?
barbazoo 5mo ago
I'm probably wrong but it seems glaringly obvious to me that the two supposed allies are not at all acting in a coordinated way. One hand doesn't know what the other one is doing or one hand is just ignoring it.
- LanceH 5mo ago
  What allies would those be?
  - Hugsbox 5mo ago
    The US and Israel. Nothing about their approach here seems coordinated, they're both just doing whatever.
    - favflam 5mo ago
      I don't think we got a full picture of Israel's leverage over US politicians and business people. How many people like Epstein are out there acting as "access agents" to Mossad? How many US gov employees and politicians like Shapiro of Pennsylvannia have served in the IDF? How can Shapiro with IDF experience ever be considered for VP of the US? Why are American politicians so comfortable supporting an ethno-state even though the US is not supposed to support apartheid regimes? Why is the US administration now so willing to throw US allies (Japan, South Korea, NATO members) under the bus with a 1970s style energy crisis to save 1 country of 9 million from a war they single unilaterally started? Finally, to answer the OP's question: * Israel is facing an existential threat; the US ending the war means de facto end to their state; * US - not allies as that requires mutual consent to wage war; see above text for actual real power relationship between Israel and the US
      - Supermancho 5mo ago
        > the US ending the war means de facto end to their state Every state ends, regardless. I'm not convinced Israel will cease to exist in the next 5 years without US support. There are plenty of countries Israel can, will, and still do partner with to various degrees. Notably much of Europe.
        JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
        > I'm not convinced Israel will cease to exist in the next 5 years without US support I genuinely couldn't believe people actually believed this until a friend of a friend voiced the opinion in person. Like, no. Israel doesn't poof if America stops supporting it. Destroying Israel would require American military action.
        Jensson 5mo ago
        > Destroying Israel would require American military action. Or an Iranian nuke. Iran has a big clock ticking down to year 2040 where they say Israel will be destroyed by, if the current Iranian regime isn't destroyed by then they will do everything they can to destroy Israel. That is why they can't agree to not enrich uranium for 25 years, because that would prevent them from destroying Israel. Anyway, if USA peace out and leaves Israel hanging Israel will just continue to bomb Iran now and never let Iran recover, since USA has weakened Iran enough for Israel to handle the rest now, so it wont happen. However if that happens you will see much more death in Iran and much more disruptions to global economy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine_Square_Countdown_Clock https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine_Square_Countdown_Clo...
      - zappb 5mo ago
        These are all Russian conspiracy theories. You should get help.
      - deleted 5mo ago
        [deleted]
- joxdosba 5mo ago
  This would be standard negotiations if the parties involved were competent. In theory this gives the US the opportunity to offer Iran concessions in Lebanon at zero cost.
- Danox 5mo ago
  Guess partner is the useful idiot in alliance?
  - zombot 5mo ago
    Trump doesn't mind all the world burning as long as it distracts from Epstein.
- selivanovp 5mo ago
  Quite contrary, I'm pretty sure that USA is well aware of what Israel is doing and both are acting in coordinated way. Both do not want any settlement in a region, they need more chaos and global supply interruptions. If it wasn't the case, USA could've stop weapons supply to Israel long ago.
Synaesthesia 5mo ago
I'm glad Iran is teaching the US and Israel a lesson. Their aggression and attacks have gone unchecked for far too long.
- bak3y 5mo ago
  [flagged]
- barbazoo 5mo ago
  I'm having a hard time not cheering for "the little guy" here before realizing that everyone actively involved here is actually bad.
  - spwa4 5mo ago
    Let's see ... One side is responsible for the "pax Americana" (but everyone here was born into the time period and so doesn't realize how exceptionally peaceful it is) One side is responsible for at least 20.000 but more likely 60.000 Iranian deaths, just this year (and everybody seems to be worried about the other side's "warcrimes") Not having big issues to figure out between these 2 who is the good guy ...
    - mcphage 5mo ago
      > One side is responsible for the "pax Americana" (but everyone here was born into the time period and so doesn't realize how exceptionally peaceful it is) The Pax Americana is great, but given America was one of the countries to start this war, I don't know how much credit they can get for something they just ended.
      - spwa4 5mo ago
        [flagged]
        mcphage 5mo ago
        > Iran wasn't exactly peaceful before February and attacked shipping regularly before then too. Oh and they attacked their own people, foreign nationals, Iranians abroad, and committed terror attacks abroad. None of the nations involved in this fight have been peaceful. That's why I'm talking about just this specific war. > I find declaring the Pax Americana dead somewhat premature. If America wins, then yeah, probably it'll limp on. If America loses, and Iran gets to dictate terms in the Strait of Hormuz, then I'm not sure how long it will last before other nations follow suit.
outside1234 5mo ago
Can't wait for Trump to offer them $300B of our money for this to go away so he can get back to golfing with our money.
- kashunstva 5mo ago
  I’m not sure he ever stopped golfing. But yes, getting back to some other distraction, an expensive one, no doubt - I’m sure that would ease his mind considerably.
  - kevin_thibedeau 5mo ago
    Cuba is up next but that can't get started until he has a "win" on Iran. They aren't giving him the chance to pretend he's a genius like all his lackeys do for him.
- sheikhnbake 5mo ago
  Maybe we can throw in some US treasury printing plates too
- luke5441 5mo ago
  As far as I understood he already offered the reparations. Including real estate projects & investment fund, obviously. Didn't make the problem go away.
10xDev 5mo ago
There has been a lot of posturing from both sides, this is probably going to continue for a couple of months more before they reach equilibrium.
- cdrnsf 5mo ago
  I don't think we should consider gross incompetence on the part of the US to be posturing.
  - 10xDev 5mo ago
    I'm only giving a neutral perspective. The moment the world stops relying on oil, Iran will lose its biggest leverage in this situation. Other sources of energy are going to be pushed even more.
    - dh2022 5mo ago
      There is more that goes through Hormuz than just oil- like fertilizer for example. Just been able to charge a fee for crossing the Hormuz is a strategic goal for Iran. This is an outcome of the war. Previously Iran did not know how weak US is - but now they figured out. It would be interesting to see if this war will be a net negative for Israel. If Iran emerges with more financial resources out of the war you can bet they will fund Hamas and Hezbollah more than before the war.
      - nradov 5mo ago
        Fertilizer exports are a problem but trucks are keeping it moving at a somewhat higher cost. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fertiliser-stuck-in-persian-gulf-govt-plans-to-move-it-by-road-to-port/articleshow/131379969.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fertiliser-stuck-i...
        kylehotchkiss 5mo ago
        I was wondering what the solution to this was. From a distance, a railroad here would be great. Pay Ukraine to keep the drones away from it. I've been to the region, I understand that a sandy desert is a tough place to keep a rail line open though.
outside1234 5mo ago
The craziest thing to me is that the conventional wisdom is that this will be over by July. We will be lucky if any ships get through the straight by December.
- cassianoleal 5mo ago
  > the conventional wisdom is that this will be over by July Whose "conventional" wisdom?
  - bryanlarsen 5mo ago
    Crude oil prices appear to encode an optimistic outcome.
    - cassianoleal 5mo ago
      So "the market" is conventional "wisdom"?
      - AnimalMuppet 5mo ago
        It's the "wisdom" (rough consensus) of those willing to put their money where their mouth is. So, yes.
    - jjk166 5mo ago
      By what objective standards does a price 41% higher than prewar encode an optimistic outcome? https://xkcd.com/904/ https://xkcd.com/904/
      - bryanlarsen 5mo ago
        A 10% reduction in supply of a commodity with fairly inelastic demand usually results in a lot more than a 40% increase in price.
        5mo ago
garbawarb 5mo ago
I suspect Iran's goal is to drag this out until US midterm elections.
- tim333 5mo ago
  Probably as that gets closer their leverage will increase both due to that and stocks running down.
silexia 5mo ago
[flagged]
- tim333 5mo ago
  You're not really supposed to steal oil these days and troops on the ground would be easy targets for Iranian drones. I think the military solution would to be have Ukraine help out as they have offered with land and air and marine drones controlled remotely via starlink or similar. Trump was a bit negative about that "last person we need help from is Zelensky" - but the tech is quite good - vid of them trouncing NATO in drone exercises https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tl-jU8XUdhQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tl-jU8XUdhQ also control system and a kind of amazon for drones https://youtu.be/W6pryqt1dwY https://youtu.be/W6pryqt1dwY
OutOfHere 5mo ago
What I don't understand is why the markets and people still believe Trump's repeated lies about the deal. I also don't understand why he started a ceasefire in the first place.
- Jensson 5mo ago
  Iran did this to Obama as well, said one thing in private then announced a totally different thing in public. It makes them kinda hard to talk to. So they might tell American negotiators in private they agree to everything, then they go and say in public Americans agreed to do everything Iran wants, what would you do when that keeps happening?
- jesuslop 5mo ago
  Markets are looking revenue figures and forward guidance.
  - OutOfHere 5mo ago
    Huh. The market literally jumps up and down strongly on news about Iran. I don't know what you're trying to cover up.
    - jesuslop 5mo ago
      news impact oil futures, inflation expectations, fed rates, discounted cash flows then valuations.
metalman 5mo ago
Iran has also suggested that they can shut down, Bab-el-Mandeb, which traslates as the "Gate of Grief" as a way to end the "war of choice", imposed by the zionist genocide alliance who are so deranged and puffed up with there impunity as to be threatening everybody as to who they will destroy after Iran, unless they help to do it. The whole mess serving to drive a monumental push towards renewable energy everywhere else.

111 points by dgellow 5mo ago

DivingForGold 5mo ago

Here we go ...

david927 5mo ago

A CAPE ratio of 40x and record-high margin debt; what could go wrong?

barbazoo 5mo ago

I'm probably wrong but it seems glaringly obvious to me that the two supposed allies are not at all acting in a coordinated way. One hand doesn't know what the other one is doing or one hand is just ignoring it.

LanceH 5mo ago
What allies would those be?
- Hugsbox 5mo ago
  The US and Israel. Nothing about their approach here seems coordinated, they're both just doing whatever.
  - favflam 5mo ago
    I don't think we got a full picture of Israel's leverage over US politicians and business people. How many people like Epstein are out there acting as "access agents" to Mossad? How many US gov employees and politicians like Shapiro of Pennsylvannia have served in the IDF? How can Shapiro with IDF experience ever be considered for VP of the US? Why are American politicians so comfortable supporting an ethno-state even though the US is not supposed to support apartheid regimes? Why is the US administration now so willing to throw US allies (Japan, South Korea, NATO members) under the bus with a 1970s style energy crisis to save 1 country of 9 million from a war they single unilaterally started? Finally, to answer the OP's question: * Israel is facing an existential threat; the US ending the war means de facto end to their state; * US - not allies as that requires mutual consent to wage war; see above text for actual real power relationship between Israel and the US
    - Supermancho 5mo ago
      > the US ending the war means de facto end to their state Every state ends, regardless. I'm not convinced Israel will cease to exist in the next 5 years without US support. There are plenty of countries Israel can, will, and still do partner with to various degrees. Notably much of Europe.
      - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
        > I'm not convinced Israel will cease to exist in the next 5 years without US support I genuinely couldn't believe people actually believed this until a friend of a friend voiced the opinion in person. Like, no. Israel doesn't poof if America stops supporting it. Destroying Israel would require American military action.
        Jensson 5mo ago
        > Destroying Israel would require American military action. Or an Iranian nuke. Iran has a big clock ticking down to year 2040 where they say Israel will be destroyed by, if the current Iranian regime isn't destroyed by then they will do everything they can to destroy Israel. That is why they can't agree to not enrich uranium for 25 years, because that would prevent them from destroying Israel. Anyway, if USA peace out and leaves Israel hanging Israel will just continue to bomb Iran now and never let Iran recover, since USA has weakened Iran enough for Israel to handle the rest now, so it wont happen. However if that happens you will see much more death in Iran and much more disruptions to global economy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine_Square_Countdown_Clock https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine_Square_Countdown_Clo...
    - zappb 5mo ago
      These are all Russian conspiracy theories. You should get help.
    - deleted 5mo ago
      [deleted]
joxdosba 5mo ago
This would be standard negotiations if the parties involved were competent. In theory this gives the US the opportunity to offer Iran concessions in Lebanon at zero cost.
Danox 5mo ago
Guess partner is the useful idiot in alliance?
- zombot 5mo ago
  Trump doesn't mind all the world burning as long as it distracts from Epstein.
selivanovp 5mo ago
Quite contrary, I'm pretty sure that USA is well aware of what Israel is doing and both are acting in coordinated way. Both do not want any settlement in a region, they need more chaos and global supply interruptions. If it wasn't the case, USA could've stop weapons supply to Israel long ago.

Synaesthesia 5mo ago

I'm glad Iran is teaching the US and Israel a lesson. Their aggression and attacks have gone unchecked for far too long.

bak3y 5mo ago
[flagged]
barbazoo 5mo ago
I'm having a hard time not cheering for "the little guy" here before realizing that everyone actively involved here is actually bad.
- spwa4 5mo ago
  Let's see ... One side is responsible for the "pax Americana" (but everyone here was born into the time period and so doesn't realize how exceptionally peaceful it is) One side is responsible for at least 20.000 but more likely 60.000 Iranian deaths, just this year (and everybody seems to be worried about the other side's "warcrimes") Not having big issues to figure out between these 2 who is the good guy ...
  - mcphage 5mo ago
    > One side is responsible for the "pax Americana" (but everyone here was born into the time period and so doesn't realize how exceptionally peaceful it is) The Pax Americana is great, but given America was one of the countries to start this war, I don't know how much credit they can get for something they just ended.
    - spwa4 5mo ago
      [flagged]
      - mcphage 5mo ago
        > Iran wasn't exactly peaceful before February and attacked shipping regularly before then too. Oh and they attacked their own people, foreign nationals, Iranians abroad, and committed terror attacks abroad. None of the nations involved in this fight have been peaceful. That's why I'm talking about just this specific war. > I find declaring the Pax Americana dead somewhat premature. If America wins, then yeah, probably it'll limp on. If America loses, and Iran gets to dictate terms in the Strait of Hormuz, then I'm not sure how long it will last before other nations follow suit.

outside1234 5mo ago

Can't wait for Trump to offer them $300B of our money for this to go away so he can get back to golfing with our money.

kashunstva 5mo ago
I’m not sure he ever stopped golfing. But yes, getting back to some other distraction, an expensive one, no doubt - I’m sure that would ease his mind considerably.
- kevin_thibedeau 5mo ago
  Cuba is up next but that can't get started until he has a "win" on Iran. They aren't giving him the chance to pretend he's a genius like all his lackeys do for him.
sheikhnbake 5mo ago
Maybe we can throw in some US treasury printing plates too
luke5441 5mo ago
As far as I understood he already offered the reparations. Including real estate projects & investment fund, obviously. Didn't make the problem go away.

10xDev 5mo ago

There has been a lot of posturing from both sides, this is probably going to continue for a couple of months more before they reach equilibrium.

cdrnsf 5mo ago
I don't think we should consider gross incompetence on the part of the US to be posturing.
- 10xDev 5mo ago
  I'm only giving a neutral perspective. The moment the world stops relying on oil, Iran will lose its biggest leverage in this situation. Other sources of energy are going to be pushed even more.
  - dh2022 5mo ago
    There is more that goes through Hormuz than just oil- like fertilizer for example. Just been able to charge a fee for crossing the Hormuz is a strategic goal for Iran. This is an outcome of the war. Previously Iran did not know how weak US is - but now they figured out. It would be interesting to see if this war will be a net negative for Israel. If Iran emerges with more financial resources out of the war you can bet they will fund Hamas and Hezbollah more than before the war.
    - nradov 5mo ago
      Fertilizer exports are a problem but trucks are keeping it moving at a somewhat higher cost. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fertiliser-stuck-in-persian-gulf-govt-plans-to-move-it-by-road-to-port/articleshow/131379969.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fertiliser-stuck-i...
      - kylehotchkiss 5mo ago
        I was wondering what the solution to this was. From a distance, a railroad here would be great. Pay Ukraine to keep the drones away from it. I've been to the region, I understand that a sandy desert is a tough place to keep a rail line open though.

outside1234 5mo ago

The craziest thing to me is that the conventional wisdom is that this will be over by July. We will be lucky if any ships get through the straight by December.

cassianoleal 5mo ago
> the conventional wisdom is that this will be over by July Whose "conventional" wisdom?
- bryanlarsen 5mo ago
  Crude oil prices appear to encode an optimistic outcome.
  - cassianoleal 5mo ago
    So "the market" is conventional "wisdom"?
    - AnimalMuppet 5mo ago
      It's the "wisdom" (rough consensus) of those willing to put their money where their mouth is. So, yes.
  - jjk166 5mo ago
    By what objective standards does a price 41% higher than prewar encode an optimistic outcome? https://xkcd.com/904/ https://xkcd.com/904/
    - bryanlarsen 5mo ago
      A 10% reduction in supply of a commodity with fairly inelastic demand usually results in a lot more than a 40% increase in price.
      - 5mo ago

garbawarb 5mo ago

I suspect Iran's goal is to drag this out until US midterm elections.

tim333 5mo ago
Probably as that gets closer their leverage will increase both due to that and stocks running down.

silexia 5mo ago

[flagged]

tim333 5mo ago
You're not really supposed to steal oil these days and troops on the ground would be easy targets for Iranian drones. I think the military solution would to be have Ukraine help out as they have offered with land and air and marine drones controlled remotely via starlink or similar. Trump was a bit negative about that "last person we need help from is Zelensky" - but the tech is quite good - vid of them trouncing NATO in drone exercises https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tl-jU8XUdhQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tl-jU8XUdhQ also control system and a kind of amazon for drones https://youtu.be/W6pryqt1dwY https://youtu.be/W6pryqt1dwY

OutOfHere 5mo ago

What I don't understand is why the markets and people still believe Trump's repeated lies about the deal. I also don't understand why he started a ceasefire in the first place.

Jensson 5mo ago
Iran did this to Obama as well, said one thing in private then announced a totally different thing in public. It makes them kinda hard to talk to. So they might tell American negotiators in private they agree to everything, then they go and say in public Americans agreed to do everything Iran wants, what would you do when that keeps happening?
jesuslop 5mo ago
Markets are looking revenue figures and forward guidance.
- OutOfHere 5mo ago
  Huh. The market literally jumps up and down strongly on news about Iran. I don't know what you're trying to cover up.
  - jesuslop 5mo ago
    news impact oil futures, inflation expectations, fed rates, discounted cash flows then valuations.

metalman 5mo ago

Iran has also suggested that they can shut down, Bab-el-Mandeb, which traslates as the "Gate of Grief" as a way to end the "war of choice", imposed by the zionist genocide alliance who are so deranged and puffed up with there impunity as to be threatening everybody as to who they will destroy after Iran, unless they help to do it. The whole mess serving to drive a monumental push towards renewable energy everywhere else.