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I hate Musk, and I'm not going to justify Tesla's crazy stock valuation, but consider the following: Outside of China, Tesla's probably the only company that c
by BeetleB 5mo ago
I hate Musk, and I'm not going to justify Tesla's crazy stock valuation, but consider the following:
Outside of China, Tesla's probably the only company that can compete on battery prices. I don't know how accurate it was, but a news report was comparing the cost the manufacturer's pay to build the battery. Chinese companies were around $6000. Tesla was at $7000. Everyone else was around $12-15K. This is why a number of companies have exited the EV market - they just can't compete. This is why Ford lost money on every EV, despite the high MSRP. This is why the Ford CEO says "We're f####d" when he saw Chinese cars.
The only hope regular Japanese/American/European auto manufacturers have is if EVs do not gain substantial market share.
If the future is EVs, Tesla is the only non-Chinese company that has a chance.
It's depressing.
- Zigurd 5mo agoIt's not depressing because it's not true. Tesla isn't investing in battery technology. Tesla also isn't developing new models at the same rate as VW, BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai Kia, etc.
- 4ndrewl 5mo agoThis. It doesn't really look like Tesla is doing anything rn but selling old cars. They don't appear to be the future any more.
- SirMaster 5mo agoIt doesn't look like they are developing self-driving? What other company is developing self-driving at a level of sophistication as Tesla that you can actually buy in a consumer vehicle?
- 4ndrewl 5mo agoI suppose, if you live in a jurisdiction/insurance regime where it's usable. But people like buying new cars, new models, new designs. Not just features - those are just options.
- Spooky23 5mo agoThe companies that have real boards would never take the risk. Once Elon’s air cover is blown, the government is going the dissect Tesla. Once someone gets the injunction to stop deletion of crash data and allow for inspection, they are cooked.
- goalieca 5mo agoI don't think self-driving is remotely close to working at any scale. I also don't think it's the killer-app. Right now, cheap electrics and moreso cheap hybrids are the killer.
- GMoromisato 5mo agoI don’t know if you’ve tried Tesla FSD, but I use it almost every day. It is not perfect, but it is amazing. Waymo, of course, is everywhere here in the Bay Area. The tech works at scale today.
- intended 5mo agoit works in the west. In specific areas and under specific conditions. Driving data is cultural data. This is one of the many blind spots from commenters, when they think about their own experience and generalize it to the larger global market.
- jmye 5mo agoIt works "at scale" if you have no idea what "at scale" actually means and have never left the Bay Area or NYC. Or if you like, don't believe weather exists.
- GMoromisato 5mo agoOkay, but do you admit it (self-driving, either Tesla or Waymo) works in the Bay Area? Because the OP said self-driving is not remotely working "at any scale".
- SirMaster 5mo agoI ride in my friends Model Y Performance with HW 4.5 from time to time and it always gets us from point A to point B without any interventions that I have seen yet and this is in Wisconsin, and yes it was working well with some snow and ice conditions this past winter. It seems really impressive to me at least.
- BeetleB 5mo ago> Tesla also isn't developing new models at the same rate as VW, BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai Kia, etc. BMW and Mercedes are not in the same class. They can afford to get away by charging a premium. VW: I'd love to know how much it costs them to make/buy a battery, and their profit margins on EVs. Ditto Hyundai and Kia. (Edit: See https://carbuzz.com/ev-profit-margins/ https://carbuzz.com/ev-profit-margins/ for VW). Look at all the companies scaling back on EVs or exiting them altogether (e.g. Honda). It's not that Honda can't make EVs. It's that they can't compete on profit with Tesla + Chinese EVs. It's likely why Hyundai is dropping the Kona and the Ioniq 6. Nissan dropped the Ariya, I believe. The Bolt is also out. The general shift is for more luxury EVs (BMW/Mercedes), and not EVs for the average Joe. See also https://www.bain.com/insights/electric-vehicles-profit-puzzle-us-manufacturers-snap-chart/ https://www.bain.com/insights/electric-vehicles-profit-puzzl...
- dalyons 5mo agoGiving up on EVs is crazy though, it seals their fate and guarantees the death of the company in exchange for a few more years of profit. The EV takeover will not stop, as of roughly this year they’re going to be cheaper than equivalent ice cars, it’s going to accelerate quickly. It’s suicide in slow motion
- notahacker 5mo agoThis assumes it is literally impossible for anyone else to reduce their battery costs to a level which makes them competitive with Tesla in an environment when battery prices are falling rapidly and the tech continues to evolve (and Tesla's EVs are not even unusually cheap or experimental in their battery supply chains) That sounds less likely than the bull case Tesla is trying to make on "we're a robotics company now" or "one day all cars will be autonomous taxis controlled by us".
- BeetleB 5mo agoTesla has vertical integration with their batteries, which is why they can make them cheaply. > This assumes it is literally impossible for anyone else to reduce their battery costs to a level which makes them competitive with Tesla in an environment when battery prices are falling rapidly and the tech continues to evolve No - it just means they can't do it as fast as the Chinese. The Chinese have been investing in battery technology for 10-15 years longer than most auto manufacturers. (And their labor is cheaper).
- FabHK 5mo agoExactly. Looking at competition from China, but also the West, I don't see Tesla having a moat in EVs, in robots, or even in batteries in the medium term (compare e.g. [1]). How can they produce the extraordinary growth and excess profits that would justify their valuation? Fundamentals will reassert themselves sooner or later, but as we see it can take a long time. [1] https://electrek.co/2026/05/07/tesla-4680-battery-cell-performance-data-shows-cant-build-own-cells/ https://electrek.co/2026/05/07/tesla-4680-battery-cell-perfo...
- BeetleB 5mo agoTheir per-car profit margin is the moat. Which non-Chinese company can compete?
- QGQBGdeZREunxLe 5mo agoTesla's moat is bipartisan support for 100%+ tariffs on Chinese EVs in the United States. How long that lasts remains to be seen. American consumers living close to either border are going to be able to see Chinese EVs themselves.
- thenthenthen 5mo agoIts interesting, practically all car makers seem to have factories in China, why cant they compete?