GMoromisato

4 ms·

1.
by GMoromisato 16d ago
The counterfactual does not sound appealing in the least. That's basically, AI tells human coders what to do, tells us to re-do our architecture when they don't like it, and generally removes all control and initiative from us. Bu
2.
by GMoromisato 16d ago
You're absolutely right that all apps have evolved in the same direction, not necessarily because they were inspired by Live Mesh, but mostly because it's a pretty obvious/useful direction. I think Live Mesh wanted to be the
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by GMoromisato 16d ago
I appreciate this--thanks! Yes, I think the Tailscale-style connectivity was a big benefit of Live Mesh; I wish we had pushed it further.
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by GMoromisato 16d ago
I worked on both Lotus Notes and Groove. What's great about Ray is that he has the capacity and drive to be involved in every part of the project. He drove high-level business requirements and wrote code and also cared about icons and
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by GMoromisato 18d ago
Just to clarify because my own mental parser failed: He's not predicting that thousands will die because of mass surveillance--he's saying that the deaths of thousands in the 9/11 attacks are going to let the government depri
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by GMoromisato 20d ago
Please share what you think is really exciting. Maybe I'll have something new to be excited about.
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by GMoromisato 20d ago
One of my favorite SF books. I feel that applies more to Russia's space program--some cosmonauts (not all, of course) support Putin's war.
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by GMoromisato 20d ago
Is that your litmus test--it has to have "value"? What's the value of Hubble? Of the Nancy Grace Roman observatory? Are you against those too? Maybe you prefer if they had left it as a spy satellite--at least that has real va
9.
by GMoromisato 20d ago
But we are going back to the moon. By 2030, I would bet, humans will land on the moon again. Probably Americans first, but if not, definitely Chinese. And this time, both countries are planning ambitious missions--not just flags-and-footp
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by GMoromisato 21d ago
My worry is that the frontier of math is too far away for most humans to reach. AI is only going to make that worse. If today it takes twenty years of math study to reach the frontier (in a narrow field), what's it going to be like whe
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by GMoromisato 22d ago
And yet, US median wages have gone up from 2000 to 2023: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/central.html In 2000, median wages were ~$21,000. In 2023, it was ~$43,000 (adjusted for inflation, that's ~$24,000 in ye
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by GMoromisato 22d ago
How much do you think it will cost to provide for "economically useless people"? If AI does all the work, then the cost of everything drops down to energy cost. And if robots are generating energy (via solar power or whatever) the
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by GMoromisato 22d ago
I think your argument is you can't create good architecture without writing code. I sort of agree. You can't be a good software architect without knowing how to code, and you can't be a good architect of a specific code base
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by GMoromisato 22d ago
This article acknowledges that "human-made" objects will have value in an AI-does-everything economy, but it then dismisses it as too small a part of the economy. But that's like dismissing non-farm labor as too small a part
15.
by GMoromisato 22d ago
I'm one of (if not the) original architecture astronaut, so you may not want to listen to me, but you're sliding from "architecture astronauts are bad" (true) to "architecture doesn't matter" (false). Argu
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by GMoromisato 23d ago
I actually think we agree. My point isn't that "we're all screwed". I do use and like AI, and I don't want to go backwards. My point is that every bubble in the Venn diagram is changing. You're absolutely right
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by GMoromisato 23d ago
Yes--I very much agree with you, and that's what I mean about finding a new intersection. The job-part of the Venn diagram is, I think, hardest for people because we can't control what companies pay for. I agree that software engi
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by GMoromisato 23d ago
Think of the classic Venn diagram, the intersection of: 1. Things I enjoy doing. 2. Things I am good at doing. 3. Things people value me doing. The problem with AI is that it potentially changes all three of those bubbles. 1. Sure, AI is po
19.
by GMoromisato 23d ago
I believe my job as a programmer is to produce value, but your retort is very strong. Cleaning bathrooms would not be fullfilling for me. Ultimately, I like the creation part of programming: creating something that doesn't exist that i
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by GMoromisato 24d ago
I love Tom Standage’s book, A History of the World in Six Glasses. It talks about: beer (Mesopotamia), wine (Greece/Rome), spirits (Spanish colonization), tea (British colonization), coffee (world wars), and Coca-Cola (American empire
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by GMoromisato 24d ago
I think there's a difference between "photography will change art--we need to be ready" and "photography will change art, therefore stop photography." There is no doubt that AI has changed the practice of mathematic
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by GMoromisato 25d ago
Ironically, I think he was right! In fact some of his initial experiments, like copycat, were about predicting patterns. You can see next-token-prediction from there. But I think he always held out for an algorithmic/logical method rat
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by GMoromisato 25d ago
That's absolutely fair. I'm comparing it against v11, where I couldn't go a block before disengaging. And my routes and neighborhoods are relatively easy. But still, even v12 can handle things like manual traffic signalers, c
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by GMoromisato 25d ago
I used to think that I would only use FSD on long trips, where it's tiring, but now that it is so good, I end up using it on any trip that I nav (restaurants, stores, etc.). And since I can't look at my phone (or sleep or read) I
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by GMoromisato 25d ago
Because once the software gets to an acceptable level, it becomes table-stakes--it's not a differentiator. After that, the only thing that matters is who deploys the most cars, and the unit economics of each car. That depends on manufa
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by GMoromisato 26d ago
I think this article is underestimating Tesla and very much underestimating how hard Level 4 autonomy is. The long-tail of edge conditions to handle is really long, and Rivian is only at the beginning. What Rivian is going to release at the
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by GMoromisato 26d ago
I have a 2020 M3 on HW3 with v14 lite and it's very good. But even v12 was pretty good. I drove an HW4 as a loaner and did not notice a significant difference. I think the big difference would be on the long-tail of edge conditions, bu
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by GMoromisato 26d ago
The problem isn't the mental model of AI--it's the mental model of intelligence. If you think intelligence is some non-algorithmic, non-computable process then of course you won't believe that an AI can be intelligent. But si
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by GMoromisato 26d ago
I18n code is no joke--there's a lot of complexity there. Glad to hear you have fond memories!
30.
by GMoromisato 26d ago
Those were the days! Send me an email--I'd love to reconnect!

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