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> later this year One can hope that reality intrudes before the bubble gets even more dangerously inflated, but how many years has Tesla had a ridiculous P/E r

by Zigurd 5mo ago

> later this year One can hope that reality intrudes before the bubble gets even more dangerously inflated, but how many years has Tesla had a ridiculous P/E ratio. Even after growth stagnated and market leadership was lost in Asia and Europe. Number still goes up.

hnthrow0287345 5mo ago
If anything though, this shows that at least tech driven hype bubbles can stay around way longer than we think if we are looking at it from a product POV. This just means short sellers might have a hard time sinking a hype-category stock with reasoned research because the irrationality keeps it afloat.
- ChartMaster22 5mo ago
  "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
  - devin 5mo ago
    Sometimes I wonder if Keynes would under the current conditions see fit to differentiate "merely irrational" from "absolutely insane".
BeetleB 5mo ago
I hate Musk, and I'm not going to justify Tesla's crazy stock valuation, but consider the following: Outside of China, Tesla's probably the only company that can compete on battery prices. I don't know how accurate it was, but a news report was comparing the cost the manufacturer's pay to build the battery. Chinese companies were around $6000. Tesla was at $7000. Everyone else was around $12-15K. This is why a number of companies have exited the EV market - they just can't compete. This is why Ford lost money on every EV, despite the high MSRP. This is why the Ford CEO says "We're f####d" when he saw Chinese cars. The only hope regular Japanese/American/European auto manufacturers have is if EVs do not gain substantial market share. If the future is EVs, Tesla is the only non-Chinese company that has a chance. It's depressing.
- Zigurd 5mo ago
  It's not depressing because it's not true. Tesla isn't investing in battery technology. Tesla also isn't developing new models at the same rate as VW, BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai Kia, etc.
  - 4ndrewl 5mo ago
    This. It doesn't really look like Tesla is doing anything rn but selling old cars. They don't appear to be the future any more.
    - SirMaster 5mo ago
      It doesn't look like they are developing self-driving? What other company is developing self-driving at a level of sophistication as Tesla that you can actually buy in a consumer vehicle?
      - 4ndrewl 5mo ago
        I suppose, if you live in a jurisdiction/insurance regime where it's usable. But people like buying new cars, new models, new designs. Not just features - those are just options.
      - Spooky23 5mo ago
        The companies that have real boards would never take the risk. Once Elon’s air cover is blown, the government is going the dissect Tesla. Once someone gets the injunction to stop deletion of crash data and allow for inspection, they are cooked.
      - goalieca 5mo ago
        I don't think self-driving is remotely close to working at any scale. I also don't think it's the killer-app. Right now, cheap electrics and moreso cheap hybrids are the killer.
        GMoromisato 5mo ago

by Zigurd 5mo ago

hnthrow0287345 5mo ago

If anything though, this shows that at least tech driven hype bubbles can stay around way longer than we think if we are looking at it from a product POV. This just means short sellers might have a hard time sinking a hype-category stock with reasoned research because the irrationality keeps it afloat.

ChartMaster22 5mo ago
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
- devin 5mo ago
  Sometimes I wonder if Keynes would under the current conditions see fit to differentiate "merely irrational" from "absolutely insane".

BeetleB 5mo ago

I hate Musk, and I'm not going to justify Tesla's crazy stock valuation, but consider the following: Outside of China, Tesla's probably the only company that can compete on battery prices. I don't know how accurate it was, but a news report was comparing the cost the manufacturer's pay to build the battery. Chinese companies were around $6000. Tesla was at $7000. Everyone else was around $12-15K. This is why a number of companies have exited the EV market - they just can't compete. This is why Ford lost money on every EV, despite the high MSRP. This is why the Ford CEO says "We're f####d" when he saw Chinese cars. The only hope regular Japanese/American/European auto manufacturers have is if EVs do not gain substantial market share. If the future is EVs, Tesla is the only non-Chinese company that has a chance. It's depressing.

Zigurd 5mo ago
It's not depressing because it's not true. Tesla isn't investing in battery technology. Tesla also isn't developing new models at the same rate as VW, BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai Kia, etc.
- 4ndrewl 5mo ago
  This. It doesn't really look like Tesla is doing anything rn but selling old cars. They don't appear to be the future any more.
  - SirMaster 5mo ago
    It doesn't look like they are developing self-driving? What other company is developing self-driving at a level of sophistication as Tesla that you can actually buy in a consumer vehicle?
    - 4ndrewl 5mo ago
      I suppose, if you live in a jurisdiction/insurance regime where it's usable. But people like buying new cars, new models, new designs. Not just features - those are just options.
    - Spooky23 5mo ago
      The companies that have real boards would never take the risk. Once Elon’s air cover is blown, the government is going the dissect Tesla. Once someone gets the injunction to stop deletion of crash data and allow for inspection, they are cooked.
    - goalieca 5mo ago
      I don't think self-driving is remotely close to working at any scale. I also don't think it's the killer-app. Right now, cheap electrics and moreso cheap hybrids are the killer.
      - GMoromisato 5mo ago