3 ms·

I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b. The only next step

I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b. The only next step is the public market.

epolanski 5mo ago
Meanwhile Chinese AI companies outputting open weight models nearly as good are valued in the low single digit billions. Go figure.
- subarctic 5mo ago
  Wasn't there a Chinese ai startup that got bought recently but the government wouldn't let the founders leave china? I think stuff like that would have an effect on valuation
  - disgruntledphd2 5mo ago
    Yeah, Manus were supposed to be acquired by FB, but the Chinese government nixed it.
    - Danox 5mo ago
      long-term a very smart move to block it.
- lelanthran 5mo ago
  > Meanwhile Chinese AI companies outputting open weight models nearly as good are valued in the low single digit billions. That's surprising to me; I thought (or heard) that it was low 3-digit millions.
- pjc50 5mo ago
  That's the premium for being a Western company in a Western market, yes.
- Spooky23 5mo ago
  They are dirty communists. We prefer red blooded American scam artists here, buddy. Hell, Elon probably found some bullshit way to recognize Chinese AI as Twitter revenue, used to buy cyberattacks to sell to SpaceX.
  - HWR_14 5mo ago
    I believe that Elon is in fact selling inference data center time under SpaceX (which does own Twitter), some of which may be used to buy cybertrucks.
- svantana 5mo ago
  Current chinese AI company valuations (USD): Knowledge Atlas Technology (Z.ai): 57B MiniMax Group: 26B Deepseek: 45B (rumored)
0xDEAFBEAD 5mo ago
>the private market can't possibly go any higher Can public markets go higher? Shiller P/E is closing in on the peak of the dot-com bubble: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe This is already close to being the frothiest market in US history. Consider two competing forecasts for AI: it's a "normal technology", or it will be superintelligent. If it's a "normal technology", where's the moat? Why won't this turn into a boring commodity business, like telecom after the bubble? Sure, railroads transformed the US, but that didn't prevent investors from losing a bunch of money first: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47900502 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47900502 If it's superintelligence, we're most likely either all dead (in which case you helped cause human extinction by investing, congratulations) or else we're living on generous UBI: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/you-have-only-x-years-to-escape-permanent https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/you-have-only-x-years-to-es...
- staticman2 5mo ago
  > Can public markets go higher? Shiller P/E is closing in on the peak of the dot-com bubble: Shiller PE is near 44. Japan had an equivalent price to earnings ratio of over 70 during their 1989 bubble.
  - 0xDEAFBEAD 5mo ago
    Hm, wasn't Japan's bubble in part due to easy credit? Are we going to see easy credit in the US given recent memories of inflation?
    - pjc50 5mo ago
      Quite possible that there will be a Trump effort to drive down rates and abandon inflation control for political reasons.
      - staticman2 5mo ago
        There already was such an effort but Trump lacks enough federal reserve votes to succeed at present.
nicce 5mo ago
> I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b. How many public companies even get 122b? They definitely can go higher if they really are that valuable. With public companies come the other factors which might not be based on the actual value and can cause people to throw money.

I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b. The only next step is the public market.

epolanski 5mo ago

Meanwhile Chinese AI companies outputting open weight models nearly as good are valued in the low single digit billions. Go figure.

subarctic 5mo ago
Wasn't there a Chinese ai startup that got bought recently but the government wouldn't let the founders leave china? I think stuff like that would have an effect on valuation
- disgruntledphd2 5mo ago
  Yeah, Manus were supposed to be acquired by FB, but the Chinese government nixed it.
  - Danox 5mo ago
    long-term a very smart move to block it.
lelanthran 5mo ago
> Meanwhile Chinese AI companies outputting open weight models nearly as good are valued in the low single digit billions. That's surprising to me; I thought (or heard) that it was low 3-digit millions.
pjc50 5mo ago
That's the premium for being a Western company in a Western market, yes.
Spooky23 5mo ago
They are dirty communists. We prefer red blooded American scam artists here, buddy. Hell, Elon probably found some bullshit way to recognize Chinese AI as Twitter revenue, used to buy cyberattacks to sell to SpaceX.
- HWR_14 5mo ago
  I believe that Elon is in fact selling inference data center time under SpaceX (which does own Twitter), some of which may be used to buy cybertrucks.
svantana 5mo ago
Current chinese AI company valuations (USD): Knowledge Atlas Technology (Z.ai): 57B MiniMax Group: 26B Deepseek: 45B (rumored)

0xDEAFBEAD 5mo ago

>the private market can't possibly go any higher Can public markets go higher? Shiller P/E is closing in on the peak of the dot-com bubble: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe This is already close to being the frothiest market in US history. Consider two competing forecasts for AI: it's a "normal technology", or it will be superintelligent. If it's a "normal technology", where's the moat? Why won't this turn into a boring commodity business, like telecom after the bubble? Sure, railroads transformed the US, but that didn't prevent investors from losing a bunch of money first: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47900502 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47900502 If it's superintelligence, we're most likely either all dead (in which case you helped cause human extinction by investing, congratulations) or else we're living on generous UBI: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/you-have-only-x-years-to-escape-permanent https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/you-have-only-x-years-to-es...

staticman2 5mo ago
> Can public markets go higher? Shiller P/E is closing in on the peak of the dot-com bubble: Shiller PE is near 44. Japan had an equivalent price to earnings ratio of over 70 during their 1989 bubble.
- 0xDEAFBEAD 5mo ago
  Hm, wasn't Japan's bubble in part due to easy credit? Are we going to see easy credit in the US given recent memories of inflation?
  - pjc50 5mo ago
    Quite possible that there will be a Trump effort to drive down rates and abandon inflation control for political reasons.
    - staticman2 5mo ago
      There already was such an effort but Trump lacks enough federal reserve votes to succeed at present.

nicce 5mo ago

> I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b. How many public companies even get 122b? They definitely can go higher if they really are that valuable. With public companies come the other factors which might not be based on the actual value and can cause people to throw money.