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The big thing I fear about this sort of destruction is that it takes a very long time for tree bearing fruit to start turning a profit. That means someone that

The big thing I fear about this sort of destruction is that it takes a very long time for tree bearing fruit to start turning a profit. That means someone that wants to plant new trees needs to do so with the notion that they won't get any sort of return on investment for a decade. My fear is that institutional farming does not have the long term fortitude to ever start growing a tree bearing crop. Once these trees are destroyed, they are gone for good regardless how the demand shifts. A downturn of 2 or 3 years or crazy political maneuvers which kill off exports puts access to these fruit in jeopardy. And once they are out of the diet, it's very hard to get them reintroduced. That's a big part of the reason why the US has such a limited fruit diet in the first place (the other being that many fruits are very hard to ship).

junofan 6mo ago
TFA mentions 20-year contracts between Del Monte and farmers. That seems to have worked so well that we have too many peach trees. Like, to me the present situation itself should assuage your fears. Are you thinking another processor/distributor won’t come along in the future with long-term contracts? Where will they get their peaches?
- cogman10 6mo ago
  > Are you thinking another processor/distributor won’t come along in the future with long-term contracts? That's exactly what I'm thinking. There are few crops where someone might want to lock in a 20 year contract. It's a major gamble for all involved. It's a gamble for the distributor because tastes might shift in 20 years (almost certainly a big part of why Del Monte went bankrupt) and it's a risk for the farmer because it's not clear that another distributor will look at these farms and think "You know what, I can pick up where that company went bankrupt". > Where will they get their peaches? Will they get peaches? That's really the question. They might just decide it's too unpopular and the price would have to be too high to support selling peaches. Del Monte was a big reason why peaches are available. Similar to how Dole is a big reason we have bananas year round. If Dole goes bankrupt, we likely won't see bananas on the shelves. And we know this because there's more than just 1 variety of banana in the world. We have access to only 1 because there's only one distributor of bananas in the US. We are moving into an era of private equity doing fast turn around profits on everything. The old way of business thinking that you can have a 20 year contract is likely dying. 1 year contracts are going to be much more likely because that's where a lot of the investment is going. And Del Monte is the poster child for why a business would shy away from doing a 20 year contract.
  - SoftTalker 6mo ago
    The bananas I buy at Aldi are not Dole. Unless Dole sells under different brand names. But Dole is obviously the big player.
  - rootusrootus 6mo ago
    > We have access to only 1 because there's only one distributor of bananas in the US. Aren't there 3, at least? Dole, Chiquita, and Del Monte?
    - ssl-3 6mo ago
      In the US, there's at least that many. I've also bought Fyffes bananas [in the US] in recent times; those probably came from Aldi. The more diverse ethnic marketplaces surely have other sources. They've got their own ways of doing stuff. :)
nradov 6mo ago
It's so weird for you to be fearful of something when you don't know how farming works. Every year farmers cut down a bunch of trees and plant new ones in response to costs and market demand. So what. This is routine and seldom makes the news. Canned fruit, like what these farmers were producing, has been losing popularity for years. You can't force consumers to like it.
- cogman10 6mo ago
  No, not typically. And I know this because I grew up around farmers and farmers that had orchards. Trees would be cut down and replaced, usually if the tree was sickly. But not because this year plums are doing better on the market. As I said, trees take a long time to bear fruit. It's not typical that a farmer will cut down a tree in their orchard in response to market pressure as that tree represents a huge investment. If that were the case, then why are there so many peach trees currently? Why hasn't the entire orchard been replaced with olive trees? Do you actually have farming experience?
  - nradov 6mo ago
    Yes, I actually have farming experience. Farmers aren't naive about this stuff. They forecast future trends as best they can and will replace trees (or other crops) when it seems profitable. Newly planted fruit trees will generally start producing within a few years and output increases as the trees grow, then eventually levels off and declines as they age. A tree is just another capital asset with a limited lifespan. Much ado about nothing.
    - cogman10 6mo ago
      Ok, then I'll just reissue my 2 questions > If that were the case, then why are there so many peach trees currently? Why hasn't the entire orchard been replaced with olive trees? I agree, that farmers forecast and switch up crops. But I disagree with you that you have a bunch of farmers that have mixed orchards setup because of that forecasting. It's not like wheat or barely where you could switch between the two even mid year if you were crazy enough. I'd also point out that the first fruiting isn't exactly a bumper crop. It takes several more years after that first fruiting before you get to the point where a tree is fully productive.
vasco 6mo ago
> That means someone that wants to plant new trees needs to do so with the notion that they won't get any sort of return on investment for a decade Peach trees take 2-3 years to bear fruit specially with grafting.
- cogman10 6mo ago
  Stone fruit (like peaches) are all typically grafted. And that 2 to 3 years is when the trees first fruit, not when you get a full harvest from the tree. The 10 to 20 years is when the tree is fully mature and producing it's max amount of fruit. That first fruiting you are looking at something like 2 or 3 lbs of fruit. Full grown you are looking at about 20 lbs of fruit yearly. You can push up maturity by using a dwarf root stock and get to full fruiting in 6 to 8 years.
  - vasco 6mo ago
    I didn't say you'd get full harvest at 2 years, otherwise I don't think anything we've both said is incompatible
    - cogman10 6mo ago
      That's fair, I was mostly trying to point out that the first fruiting is very much not something you could really count on for a profit. You wouldn't want an orchard filled with trees that are first fruiting.
  - hattmall 6mo ago
    >Full grown you are looking at about 20 lbs of fruit yearly. Just from the poorly cared peach trees that grow around my house it has to be much more than 20 lbs of fruit yearly. That's only like 100 peaches. I've been to a pick your own peaches orchard and it was easy to fill a 5 gallon bucket from a single part of a tree. I know there are a lot of varieties but it has to be a lot more than 20lbs.
ahepp 6mo ago
If you don’t trust farmers to make the decision, who do you think should be making it?
tutorialmanager 6mo ago
Peach trees last at most 15 years on commercial farms and are often replaced after only 10 years. The peak production years are from 5 to 10 years and I doubt any trees being cut down under this program are in that stage.

junofan 6mo ago

TFA mentions 20-year contracts between Del Monte and farmers. That seems to have worked so well that we have too many peach trees. Like, to me the present situation itself should assuage your fears. Are you thinking another processor/distributor won’t come along in the future with long-term contracts? Where will they get their peaches?

cogman10 6mo ago
> Are you thinking another processor/distributor won’t come along in the future with long-term contracts? That's exactly what I'm thinking. There are few crops where someone might want to lock in a 20 year contract. It's a major gamble for all involved. It's a gamble for the distributor because tastes might shift in 20 years (almost certainly a big part of why Del Monte went bankrupt) and it's a risk for the farmer because it's not clear that another distributor will look at these farms and think "You know what, I can pick up where that company went bankrupt". > Where will they get their peaches? Will they get peaches? That's really the question. They might just decide it's too unpopular and the price would have to be too high to support selling peaches. Del Monte was a big reason why peaches are available. Similar to how Dole is a big reason we have bananas year round. If Dole goes bankrupt, we likely won't see bananas on the shelves. And we know this because there's more than just 1 variety of banana in the world. We have access to only 1 because there's only one distributor of bananas in the US. We are moving into an era of private equity doing fast turn around profits on everything. The old way of business thinking that you can have a 20 year contract is likely dying. 1 year contracts are going to be much more likely because that's where a lot of the investment is going. And Del Monte is the poster child for why a business would shy away from doing a 20 year contract.
- SoftTalker 6mo ago
  The bananas I buy at Aldi are not Dole. Unless Dole sells under different brand names. But Dole is obviously the big player.
- rootusrootus 6mo ago
  > We have access to only 1 because there's only one distributor of bananas in the US. Aren't there 3, at least? Dole, Chiquita, and Del Monte?
  - ssl-3 6mo ago
    In the US, there's at least that many. I've also bought Fyffes bananas [in the US] in recent times; those probably came from Aldi. The more diverse ethnic marketplaces surely have other sources. They've got their own ways of doing stuff. :)

nradov 6mo ago

It's so weird for you to be fearful of something when you don't know how farming works. Every year farmers cut down a bunch of trees and plant new ones in response to costs and market demand. So what. This is routine and seldom makes the news. Canned fruit, like what these farmers were producing, has been losing popularity for years. You can't force consumers to like it.

cogman10 6mo ago
No, not typically. And I know this because I grew up around farmers and farmers that had orchards. Trees would be cut down and replaced, usually if the tree was sickly. But not because this year plums are doing better on the market. As I said, trees take a long time to bear fruit. It's not typical that a farmer will cut down a tree in their orchard in response to market pressure as that tree represents a huge investment. If that were the case, then why are there so many peach trees currently? Why hasn't the entire orchard been replaced with olive trees? Do you actually have farming experience?
- nradov 6mo ago
  Yes, I actually have farming experience. Farmers aren't naive about this stuff. They forecast future trends as best they can and will replace trees (or other crops) when it seems profitable. Newly planted fruit trees will generally start producing within a few years and output increases as the trees grow, then eventually levels off and declines as they age. A tree is just another capital asset with a limited lifespan. Much ado about nothing.
  - cogman10 6mo ago
    Ok, then I'll just reissue my 2 questions > If that were the case, then why are there so many peach trees currently? Why hasn't the entire orchard been replaced with olive trees? I agree, that farmers forecast and switch up crops. But I disagree with you that you have a bunch of farmers that have mixed orchards setup because of that forecasting. It's not like wheat or barely where you could switch between the two even mid year if you were crazy enough. I'd also point out that the first fruiting isn't exactly a bumper crop. It takes several more years after that first fruiting before you get to the point where a tree is fully productive.

vasco 6mo ago

> That means someone that wants to plant new trees needs to do so with the notion that they won't get any sort of return on investment for a decade Peach trees take 2-3 years to bear fruit specially with grafting.

cogman10 6mo ago
Stone fruit (like peaches) are all typically grafted. And that 2 to 3 years is when the trees first fruit, not when you get a full harvest from the tree. The 10 to 20 years is when the tree is fully mature and producing it's max amount of fruit. That first fruiting you are looking at something like 2 or 3 lbs of fruit. Full grown you are looking at about 20 lbs of fruit yearly. You can push up maturity by using a dwarf root stock and get to full fruiting in 6 to 8 years.
- vasco 6mo ago
  I didn't say you'd get full harvest at 2 years, otherwise I don't think anything we've both said is incompatible
  - cogman10 6mo ago
    That's fair, I was mostly trying to point out that the first fruiting is very much not something you could really count on for a profit. You wouldn't want an orchard filled with trees that are first fruiting.
- hattmall 6mo ago
  >Full grown you are looking at about 20 lbs of fruit yearly. Just from the poorly cared peach trees that grow around my house it has to be much more than 20 lbs of fruit yearly. That's only like 100 peaches. I've been to a pick your own peaches orchard and it was easy to fill a 5 gallon bucket from a single part of a tree. I know there are a lot of varieties but it has to be a lot more than 20lbs.

ahepp 6mo ago

If you don’t trust farmers to make the decision, who do you think should be making it?

tutorialmanager 6mo ago

Peach trees last at most 15 years on commercial farms and are often replaced after only 10 years. The peak production years are from 5 to 10 years and I doubt any trees being cut down under this program are in that stage.