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Heat pump sales rise across Europe
- wxw 6mo agoThat's a neat proxy measurement to track.
- infecto 6mo agoI am probably simply confused but what’s the proxy measurement?
- comrade1234 6mo agoI assume a product related directly to another product. So when energy prices start to go up, invest in heat pump companies.
- infecto 6mo agoThats what I was guessing but was thrown off because it is a pretty natural nth order effect. Gas prices go up, more efficient cars get sold.
- hervature 6mo agoHeat pump sales for energy costs.
- NewJazz 6mo agoMore efficient hvac tech is a partial substitute for fuel.
- Marciplan 6mo ago[flagged]
- JumpCrisscross 6mo ago> our waitinglist are 80% battery and heatpump sellers in the Benelux Lean into that. You’re currently a generic sales product. Focusing on a growing space, provided it doesn’t have an existing solution, will focus your team, product and pitch to both customers and investors.
- Marciplan 6mo agoyeah, you may be completely right :) ty!
- jakozaur 6mo agoA heat pump could win as the best HVAC technology, though a better drilling for ground-sourced ones. Just a shallow drilling (up to 100m) that works in retrofit mode, such as drilling from the basement, would be a great upgrade: - No outdoor unit that looks awful in many settings - works well, even in the coldest winter, without a spike in electricity usage, COP 5 - very reliable with long durability - super quiet, no ambient noise - 20% more efficient Currently, drilling is very disruptive in retrofits, but there is progress in compact techniques that might change the equation. Disclaimer: angel investor in https://www.flexdrill.at/ https://www.flexdrill.at/
- mono442 6mo agoIt's usually so much more expensive than an air source heat pump that makes it completely not worth it.
- cenamus 6mo agoYeah, recently saw some numbers for air-to-air vs air-to-groundwater, and it break even after more than 25 years, with more than twice the initial cost
- JumpCrisscross 6mo agoWhat were the figures and where are you?
- thrownthatway 6mo agoThere’s no way the system is designed to last 25 years though?
- apelapan 6mo agoThe well that you drill will last a 100 years if you don't have bad luck. That is half the cost of installation. The water/water heatpump unit in my house is 20 years old and has not had any major failures yet. I hope it will run for another ten years before the compressor gives up, but it is indeed approaching its calculated technical lifespan. I estimate it will set me back €10k to have it replaced. Air/air is the cheaper option over time, even in most of Scandinavia with coldish winters. The main drawback of air/air systems are that they are loud and ugly and therefore annoy both yourself and your neighbours.
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- ck2 6mo agoimagine the President of the US and his "braintrust" accidentally making the world much more green and efficient by forcing a radical reduction in oil dependency while they purposely end climate-change research including destroying billions in observation satellites by deorbiting them the history written about this decade is going to be wild, if we survive it
- jochem9 6mo agoEU severely reducing its fossil fuel imports from Russia in 2022 cut down natural gas usage by 17% and overall energy consumption by 3%. So yeah, increased price due to scarcity help a lot in shifting around the energy mix. It's a bit shit that hits poorer people relatively more than richer people. Governments can reduce this impact by subsidizing sustainable alternatives (like heat pumps). It's still leading to inequality (unless you give more subsidy to the poor), but at least overall people will hopefully benefit.
- usrnm 6mo ago> overall energy consumption by 3% Is it possible that some non-trivial part of that number comes not from increased efficiency but from losing some energy-dependent industries?
- thinkcontext 6mo agoIt might be difficult to separate that out from the effect of US tariffs.
- inquirerGeneral 6mo ago[dead]
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- ejoebstl 6mo agoIn DACH, there's not really an alternative for many homes. Heat pumps are by now cheaper, more efficient, more versatile and definitely greener than other means of heating. If you get one, just make sure to get the dimensioning right. They are WAY more complex to plan, install and maintain than traditional heating.
- pimlottc 6mo ago> DACH, an acronym for Deutschland (Germany), Austria, Confoederatio Helvetica (Swiss Confederation), the three major German-speaking countries I was not familiar with this term before, had to look it up.
- ndr42 6mo agoA great acronym as it translates to roof (Dach in german).
- jmercouris 6mo agoIt doesn’t even make sense though, shouldn’t it be DÖCH?
- azepoi 6mo agoIt goes by license plate codes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_vehicle_registration_code https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_vehicle_registra... It makes for a fun acronym DACH meaning roof in german. If they used Ö why not DÖS with an S for Schweiz then ?
- ButlerianJihad 6mo agoI think you mean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_3166 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_3166 Because this consortium seemingly has nothing to do with receiving license plate assignments. And the acronym seems to derive from your general vernacular, lending its name to many other things. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographical_distribution_of_German_speakers#German-speaking_Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographical_distribution_of_G...
- ndr42 6mo ago> [it] become[s] cheaper than gas heating within 11 to 14 years This a no-brainer for buildings with high energy use. But we looked into getting a heat pump last year but it doesn't pan out because our house (15 years old) has a very low energy use and we would not recover the costs (about 20K euros after subsidies) for 20+ years.
- teachrdan 6mo agoWith any luck, oil prices will rise enough to make that conversion worthwhile!
- bluGill 6mo agoYour existing system will not last forever. When you have to spend money anyway that changes things.
- ndr42 6mo agoYes. It also depends on the age of your gas heating as in Germany you get 20% subsidies when your system is 20 years or older, unfortunately this subsidy decreases 3 percentage points every year so when we are due it will be about 5%.
- mikestorrent 6mo agoIt did for me. 40-year old furnace was starting to sound bad and subsidies locally were excellent; I now have a 3-ton heat pump and my house is fine in winter or summer for far less money than gas. It might have been harder to justify without subsidy, but we do need people to make this shift and a lot of homeowners will not consider things with 20-year ROI.
- monegator 6mo agoin my case: 3k at most for a replacement gas furnace, and heat pumps would require new wirings as well. Many things would need to break at once to make it worth considering when you have older homes New homes with mandated PV and battery, that's another story.
- seydor 6mo agoin the south, a lot of people opt for split Airconditioning instead of heatpumps. Cheaper and much easier to install/maintain
- shellfishgene 6mo agoThat's the same thing, no?
- masklinn 6mo agoIn the same way that an electric motor and a generator are the same thing.
- triceratops 6mo agoIn an EV they literally are.
- masklinn 6mo agoYes? But without the few bits and bobs of extra control for handling that condition they are, effectively, not. Same for AC and heat pumps.
- triceratops 6mo agoEVs have regenerative breaking and so come with those bits and bobs.
- masklinn 6mo agoBut not all electric motors are paired such. Which is the point: a heat pump and an AC are "the same thing" at the gross level, but that doesn't mean all ACs have all the bits and bobs necessary for them to act as heat pumps.
- gosub100 6mo ago
- pandora-health 6mo agoI run daily comparisons between a gas boiler and a heat pump in the UK. Given that gas is cheaper than electricity, a well-installed and well-controlled gas boiler can still be cheaper to run. Heat pump running costs can drop drastically when combined with solar and battery storage, but that requires a much greater upfront investment. https://x.com/AO7186252340513 https://x.com/AO7186252340513 https://bsky.app/profile/showpiece.bsky.social https://bsky.app/profile/showpiece.bsky.social
- PanMan 6mo agoI'm no expert on UK energy pricing, but the main difference between a boiler and heat pump is that heatpump can be, eg "500% efficient" - a COP of 5. So even if a KWH of energy is 2x the price for electricity a heatpump often comes out ahead.
- double0jimb0 6mo agoCOP of 5 when running in perfect conditions (load, EWT temps, variable stage compressor, infinite heat sink/source). You might want to research how realistic constant COP of 5 really is.
- zipy124 6mo agoElectricity in the UK is often 3x or more expensive than electricity for the same energy content. We have some of the most expensive electricity in the world.
- IshKebab 6mo agoYeah a COP of 5 is very good. 3 is much more typical. And OP is right. When I've looked into it you aren't going to save any money going to a heat pump; in fact it will likely increase costs slightly. So it really only makes sense to do when you need a new boiler. If you don't, it makes way more sense to get solar because that's also good for the environment but actually saves you money.
- foo42 6mo agoSeems like a decent place to point out that there are good savings to be had on heat pump running costs with a smart controller designed for heat pumps which can learn the dynamics of your building then preheat when tariffs are low or outdoor conditions are favourable. I work for homely energy which has such an offering, but fwiw I genuinely think it's a good product. It's been studied by Salford uni in their energy house lab, so if anyone's interested maybe dig into that for a more neutral verdict.
- ProllyInfamous 6mo agoFor anybody in TVA's electricity networks (mostly: Tennessee): they offer an annual promotion to single-family homeowners only to purchase an $1800 AO heatpump waterheater for only $250. Maths: 85% discount on fancy new waterheater, which also dehumidifies and cools your house (passive result of heatpump). TVA usually offers this promotion between Thanksgiving and NYE. You can order online from HomeDepot, or walk into a local store [0]. This ends up costing LESS than a new traditional resistive-type heater. [0] either method: they DO verify SFH (by more than just ZIP code) -- duplexes and contractors not authorized/allowed ---- My own $250.00 "TVA homeowner special" (as a licensed electrician): <https://i.imgur.com/4wCez9u.jpeg https://i.imgur.com/4wCez9u.jpeg> this specific design draws from both bath and bedroom [dual 6" inlets], exhausts into kitchen [single 8" outlet] | utility closet is only 5ft x 4ft (~20sqft) Don't forget to use a pressure regulator, expansion tank (coldside, only), & (preferably) a sediment filter. Whatever you do: do NOT use a water softener before the tank.
- GenerWork 6mo agoI have a heat pump hot water heater, and it's been awesome. It's ROI has definitely improved with all the energy price spikes. It's located in my garage (I live in Florida) so there's no shortage of hot air for it to use.
- ProllyInfamous 6mo agoSame — I maintain four (one RHEEM and three AO's). The AO is a much cleaner/simpler/nicer install. The Rheem stupidly requires duct adapters (for small-space, <700sqft "closet" installations). AO won't last as long, but at $250 who cares?!
- fsckboy 6mo ago>at $250 after subsidy >who cares?! fellow taxpayers, fellow ratepayers, people who care about the planet, etc. etc.
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- cassepipe 6mo agoI think there's one big issue for massive electrification and insulation of buildings: renting. As a renter, I have no incentives to invest thousands in my home's betterment because I will have lost those when I am gone. As an owner, I have no incentives to make my apartment/house better because I don't live in it and I don't pay the energy bills. Something has to be done about that if we want to combat climate change. I know in France it is now forbidden to rent again or sale when the renter leaves if the home's energy grade is F or G (A is best) but it is probably loosely enforced/easy to circumvent. And it is too damn slow ! This is for regulation but maybe there are other levers ? As a renter I would basically have to wait for energy prices to skyrocket for it to make economic sense. I hate this situation.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 6mo agoAnother big problem is NIMBYism and ideological opposition to air conditioners. Installing a heat pump can require (city) permits, permission from your landlord (if renting) or HOA/condo association (if you own a flat in a shared building) which can either be or feel impossible to get. Some cities have either actually or de facto (through requirements/regulations that are impossible or unaffordable to meet) banned air conditioners, resulting in people buying inefficient monoblock units that can't be used for heating. Edit: Other regulatory hurdles come from rules about refrigerant handling. Refrigerant must only be handled by experts who are certified in proper handling and recovery (and who, of course, are now in high demand and charging princely prices for their work). This made a lot of sense in the times where 1 kg of refrigerant had 10 tons CO2e in global warming potential, ozone depletion potential or other dangers. Nowadays, a skilled layperson can probably set up an air conditioner with quick-connect couplings by themselves, but they aren't legally allowed to. These cost something like 500 EUR, contain less than 1 kg of R32 with a GWP of 675, so let's say 500 kg CO2e of harm if it leaks. If you passed a law that landlords cannot prohibit installation, and any electrician that passes a quick online training can install them, you could have them all over the place very quickly. These could then be used for covering some or all of the heating load in winter, but they'd also alleviate suffering in summer, and that's luxury, and we can't have that (especially as it uses energy to provide the "needless" luxury!)
- ericd 6mo ago
- JoelJacobson 6mo agoShame on The Netherlands: ~89% of homes still use natural gas in some way for heating [1], and their government are now "scrapping the obligation to purchase a heat pump in 2026" [2]. [1] https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2025/50/ever-more-gas-free-homes https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2025/50/ever-more-gas-free-hom... [2] https://www.abnamro.nl/en/personal/specially-for/preferred-banking/smart/7-government-sustainability-measures.html https://www.abnamro.nl/en/personal/specially-for/preferred-b...
- bouke 6mo agoYeah big surprise that the populist government didn’t achieve anything and rolled back green initiatives. Good thing that they fell, sad that it took so long.
- enaaem 6mo agoStupid symbolic politics to own the greens. Good thing is that heatpumps are the most rational choice for new homes, so I don’t think much damage was done.
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- ericd 6mo agoAs a PSA, mini splits are pretty easy to self-install, and it can save you a bundle, even when buying all the equipment new. Lots of youtube videos on how to do it, though I'd add that most of them show using a manifold with analog gauges to do a vacuum test. You should really get a digital micron gauge and pull a deep vacuum.
- rokkamokka 6mo agoAlso, make sure that's actually legal in your jurisdiction. It is not legal here (primarily due to handling of coolant)
- bombcar 6mo agoEven where it's not legal you can often do much of the work and hire a licensed contractor for the "final step". It can be worth asking around.
- ericd 6mo agoGood point, though you generally don’t really have to handle coolant for mini splits, they come precharged. You mainly have to add more if you have a longer lineset. I’ve heard the online EPA course/test for coolant cert is pretty easy, though. The main thing is just making sure you test the lineset well, including deep vacuum decay, and ideally a nitrogen high pressure test.
- carlosjobim 6mo agoA significant proportion of the European population will only ever talk about heat pumps when they are in a social setting which allows for free conversation. And they haven't shut up about it for about 20 years now. It used to bore me to death.
- pbreit 6mo ago“ A total of around 575,000 residential heat pump units were sold across 11 European countries from January to March 2026, up from 494,000 in the same period in 2025” Not a big increase on a relatively small base. What is the takeaway here?
- adgjlsfhk1 6mo ago2.3 million a year for something with a 20-30 year lifetime is a lot. It's not quite enough for "in 20 year everyone will have one", but you only need another 5 or 10 years of similar 15% growth to get there.
- toasty228 6mo ago> with a 20-30 year lifetime More like 15-20, if you find a proper maintenance guy who won't scam you into buying another one because "yours is dead" even though it isn't
- mostafo 6mo agoThey’re pretty efficient
- AtlasBarfed 6mo agoGovernments should have been full bore pushing subsidies and cost breaks for phevs, home solar, evs,and hear pumps for the last decade. Covid was the wakeup call that globalization was dying a slow death, and the first trump that world cop America was also on the way out. Oil dependence in a top level national security concern of the last 150 years (hey, what really triggered WW1?), yet the primary means for independence has been politically suppressed for 50 years. How soon would we have has better PV, better batteries, better heat pumps with proper subsidies and research starting with the 70s oil shocks?
- secretsatan 6mo agoReading comments here i think many are missing something, all of our summers are getting longer and hotter, we didn’t need air conditioning before. It’s not just heating anymore, now places need active cooling too.
- thrownthatway 6mo agoIf governments would get their act together and build nuclear power… End users could have simple resistive heating. But no, in the name of invitation and net zero, end user are forced to bear the cost and maintenance burden of much more complicated equipment systems. It’s all arse-backwards.
- merb 6mo agoThe latest nuclear reactor built in Europe was in France and took 17 years and its costs were 23 billion euro (roughly 27 billion $) with this amount of money you can basically install around 750000 heat pumps costing 30000€. So no it is probably not arse-backwards. (Germany alone would need 20-25 of them and it is unlikely that we can build more than 3-4 at the same time and even that is unlikely…)
- thrownthatway 6mo agoNow pick the best (least costly / swiftest build) new power reactor build in the last ten years anywhere in the world. And anyway, your numbers are disingenuous, because it ignores the fact that heat pumps need electricity to power them, and that nuclear power reactors can provide district heating and that, and that the mean time between failures for the average split system heat pump is 7 to 10 years and that heat pumps sometimes fail in ways that the ozone depleting refrigerant to escape. It’s evident the average commenter on this subject hasn’t run the numbers on a full cost benefit of the various options. A mix of nuclear / hydroelectric / combined cycle gas turbine power plants provided ample electricity for end-users to make use of cheap to manufacture heating technology (resistive), low maintenance, low replacement costs. Well, that’s my argument anyway.
- ben_w 6mo ago> Now pick the best (least costly / swiftest build) new power reactor build in the last ten years anywhere in the world. Unless you can pay the workers the same rates, and it's politically acceptable to the electorate to use the same standards, this is as irrelevant as the fact (yes, I have done the maths on this) that it's *technically* possible for China to divert an affordable percentage of its aluminium output over a decade to build a genuine planet-spanning power grid with 1Ω electrical resistance so you can have your mid-winter midnight electricity supplied by the mid-summer midday on the opposite side of the planet. > and that nuclear power reactors can provide district heating and that I have a heat pump. It works both ways, which means that unlike district heating, it also cools down the building in summer. > that heat pumps sometimes fail in ways that the ozone depleting refrigerant to escape. Solved by banning such refrigerants: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kigali_Amendment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kigali_Amendment "Can" is also doing a lot of heavy lifting even if such things hadn't been banned. > A mix of nuclear / hydroelectric / combined cycle gas turbine power plants provided ample electricity for end-users to make use of cheap to manufacture heating technology (resistive), low maintenance, low replacement costs. Hydro is cheap, but nuclear isn't. Hydro also works as a buffer (and pumped hydro as storage), so if you're combining it with stuff anyway, may as well combine with PV. Even small-scale domestic rooftop PV (which is the most expensive PV) is cheaper than nuclear at this point, so cheap that it makes sense to use as a fencing material even if you never get around to using it for power generation.
- apexalpha 6mo agoRemember: every heat pump is a semi-permanent move to electricity over other fuels. People almost never go back. This isn't just a temporary improvement.
- pojzon 6mo agoInteresting looking at how EV sales plumented.
- ProllyInfamous 6mo ago>how EV sales plummeted This was because the US federal rebate disappeared, mostly (no?). ---- IMHO, hybrid electric vehicles make much more sense (range, refueling, infrastructure) – unless your local-only.
- rsynnott 6mo ago... They didn't. Globally, and in the EU and China, they're rising fairly healthily (the EU did have a ~flat year in 2024, but 2025 and so far '26 have resumed growth). They're down a little in the US, but the US is a particularly awkward market for them (preference for large cars, and domestic manufacturers are rather behind the curve).
- pojzon 6mo agoYup 0.6% in 2025 in Europe for sure makes a difference. The moment subsidiary for EVs is removed, sales will plument like in US. And those will be removed as EU is going through energy and resources crisis. EVs make sense only in China, where goverment has a working brain and invests heavly in nuclear power plants.
- rsynnott 6mo ago... Where are you getting that figure? BEV sales grew by about 30% in Europe last year. > And those will be removed as EU is going through energy and resources crisis. ... Which is making petrol cars more expensive to run. Right as EVs are starting to get cheaper than petrol cars. In Ireland, say, an id.Polo starts at at 20k EUR, after a 3500 euro subsidy. A _normal_ Polo starts at 25k. Even without the subsidy, the EV version is still cheaper. And petrol is 1.90eur/litre right now and rising. A Polo does about 20km/l, so 950eur/10,000km. The id.Polo does 13.3 kWh/100km, that is 0.133kWh per km. On a normal 24 hour tariff of 30c/kwh, that's 399eur/10,000km. If you're okay with charging it between 2am and 4am, and are on a smart meter plan with cheap early-morning energy (you probably should be if you have a BEV) it's more like 100eur/10,000km. If you have solar panels, it's likely approximately free. (If you want to get a bit weird, some providers offer free electricity on weekends in exchange for more expensive energy during the week, so if that fits your usage pattern... Some European countries, though not Ireland, have providers who'll offer tariffs based on spot price plus a margin, so in some cases you can even get paid for charging it, as spot prices can go negative! That said, if you want to do any of the seriously esoteric stuff, you're probably looking for something with more range than the base id.Polo.) So given that, if you have space for a charger at home... why are you buying the petrol version? I think 2026 will actually be a bit of a bumper year for EVs; they're finally beginning to get to the price level where they're cheaper than the equiv petrol car _even if you ignore running costs_. And this is Ireland, which has about the highest electricity costs in Europe. (This isn't just the Polo, btw; VW EVs generally come in a bit cheaper than the equivalent petrol version after subsidies, though the id.Polo may be the only one that's cheaper even _without_ subsidies right now. Which broadly makes sense as it's the newest.)
- eur0pa 6mo agoMust be nice having more than 3kW available at the breaker