5 ms·

This has massive strategic implications for the US. The US couldn't protect its bases in the middle east from a middle power like Iran and in fact its bases wer

by statguy 5mo ago

This has massive strategic implications for the US. The US couldn't protect its bases in the middle east from a middle power like Iran and in fact its bases were the reason that its "allies" in the gulf were attacked. Iran would have no reason to attack those allies otherwise. The US has also shown that Israel is the only ally that it really cares about. Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Australia are taking notes. Prediction: there is not going to be a war over Taiwan - Taiwan will gradually come to a Hong Kong like agreement with China.

actionfromafar 5mo ago
That's a pretty wild prediction - Taiwan is also a middle power and could beef up if it wants to.
peruvia 5mo ago
[dead]
nradov 5mo ago
Nah. Seeing how China reneged on the "one country, two systems" promise and wrecked Hong Kong has turned the Taiwanese people more firmly against reunification. Iran would be attacking other nearby states regardless of whether they host US military bases. Iran has a long history of aggression, including sponsoring terrorist groups. Personally I favor a less interventionist US foreign policy but even if we completely disengaged from the Middle East it would still be a violent neighborhood — probably even more so.
- pazimzadeh 5mo ago
  > Iran has a long history of aggression, including sponsoring terrorist groups The US has a longer history of aggression and sponsoring terrorist groups: Exclusive: CIA Files Prove America Helped Saddam as He Gassed Iran https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-prove-america-helped-saddam-as-he-gassed-iran/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-pro... During the Iran–Iraq War, which began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran on 22 September 1980,[1] the United States adopted a policy of providing support to Iraq in the form of several billion dollars' worth of economic aid, dual-use technology, intelligence sharing (e.g., IMINT), and special operations training.[2] This U.S. support, along with support from most of the Arab world, proved vital in helping Iraq sustain military operations against Iran.[3] The documented sale of dual-use technology, with one notable example being Iraq's acquisition of 45 Bell helicopters in 1985,[4][5] was effectively a workaround for a ban on direct arms transfers; U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East dictated that Iraq was a state sponsor of terrorism because of the Iraqi government's historical ties with groups like the Palestinian Liberation Front and the Abu Nidal Organization, among others.[6] However, this designation was removed in 1982 to facilitate broader support for the Iraqis as the conflict dragged on in Iran's favour. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq_during_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq...
  - _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
    [flagged]
    - NomDePlum 5mo ago
      [dead]
    - Muehe 5mo ago
      > [...] Iran targeted Americans for acts of violence. Remind me, what happened in Iran in 1953?
    - bigyabai 5mo ago
      > Iran has been calling for the death and destruction of me, my family, and my country my entire life. America has been kidnapping, killing and torturing Iranian civilians since before you were born: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAVAK https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAVAK
      - _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
        [flagged]
        bigyabai 5mo ago
        If 10 year old you was born in Shahist Iran, then you, your parents, your grandparents, your friends and your political leadership might be tortured or executed by the American regime for exercising free speech or opposing domestic policy. You are indeed luckier than those 10 year olds, for enduring death threats and not summary executions. Your fears are the ones lucky enough to be considered silly, theirs are mortal panic.
        _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
        [flagged]
- oa335 5mo ago
  [flagged]
  - seanmcdirmid 5mo ago
    The KMT is not in power right now because they are pro-one china/unification. If it was just western-filtered copium, the KMT would not keep losing popular elections. The DPP remains in power because it isn’t the KMT. Your view, as a matter of fact, is mainland-filtered copium. Yes, the rich Taiwanese mainlanders who used to dominate Taiwan politics want a return to the past, but native Taiwanese are more populous and have less vested interest in unification with the mainland do not.
    - oa335 5mo ago
      > Your view, as a matter of fact, is mainland-filtered copium. Yes, the rich Taiwanese mainlanders who used to dominate Taiwan politics want a return to the past, but native Taiwanese are more populous and have less vested interest in unification with the mainland do not. Fair enough, and it seems that polls of Taiwanese support this view as well.
  - Saline9515 5mo ago
    Maybe because the PCC is an authoritarian regime, with no respect for human rights (including using prisoners as living organ banks)?
    - dualvariable 5mo ago
      > an authoritarian regime, with no respect for human rights I mean Alex Pretti was murdered because he was exercising his 2nd amendment rights and was getting beaten after having been disarmed and never displaying his firearm. Headlines are full of people who are dying without medical care because they're being incarcerated and shipped overseas due to legal technicalities.
      - Saline9515 5mo ago
        Nice whataboutism, nothing has changed since the USSR, I see! The US also has its problems; this doesn't give the PCC a free pass. And those issues will likely go after the elections, something people in China haven't been able to do since the PCC took over the country. Anyway, shall I discuss the cultural genocide being committed on the Uighurs, or the Tibetans? Or, in a quite bizarre fashion, the descendants of the Mongols? [1] The goulags created during covid? And let's not talk about all the horrors of the Mao-era PCC. Etc, etc... [1]: https://www.economist.com/china/2023/12/20/why-chinas-rulers-fear-genghis-khan https://www.economist.com/china/2023/12/20/why-chinas-rulers...
- statguy 5mo ago
  The Taiwanese know they can't take on China directly, they now know that Western support is meaningless - in fact it pushes them more into conflict with China. Given a choice, I think the Taiwanese would prefer a Hong Kong like outcome to a Ukraine/UAE like outcome. AFAIK Iran never directly attacked several countries (e.g. UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi, Bahrain) before this war.
  - fragmede 5mo ago
    The question you have to ask is, in the story of offense vs defense, can Taiwan mine that srait and deny China access, or does China posses anti-mine technology that counteracts that.
    - maxglute 5mo ago
      TW gets most of energy and calories from strait shipping. It would be PRC mining/denying TW for lulz if anything. Ultimately TW going to have to look to see if they want to be HKers, who got less retarded after kissing PRC boot (see HK kids going to SZ to party) or whether TW wants to be Gaza who capitulates to Israeli demand, because reality is with sufficient force asymmetry, one can destroy civic life enough to force capitulation. And PRC can do that to TW, trivially, with mainland fires alone. The only hold back is the "family across the strait" narrative. TW forceful reunification even if depopulated husk basically done deal, the real question is whether PRC wants to do an Iran and push US security out of east Asia, which is ultimate grand strategic goal. And to be blunt TW is perfect casus belli to spark this. PRC would be net worse off long run getting TW peacefully and but still deal with US security in region. Hence whether Iran can squeeze US out of CENTOM (even marginally) will set huge precedence.
      - statguy 5mo ago
        The down votes to this suggest that many in the west are in denial. China doesn’t need to fight a hot war with Taiwan, they can incrementally pressure Taiwan while their western allies issue impotent statements.
- tim333 5mo ago
  I think an EU type agreement might be the way to go. Separate countries but in a union. I know Xi would hate it as he wants to be the ruler of all but compare say France and Germany - years of peace under the EU arrangement with Ukraine / Russia with both countries getting wrecked.
  - watwut 5mo ago
    EU style union is voluntary one. So no that cant happen.
  - Sabinus 5mo ago
    That'll be far too close to the 'one country two systems' promise that China broke when it got control of Hong Kong to get Taiwan to voluntarily to sign up to it.
_DeadFred_ 5mo ago
[flagged]
- watwut 5mo ago
  China not intervening in Venezuela or Iran situation does not make them paper tigers. It makes them ... not idiots. They are not interrupting the ennemy while that ennemy makes a mistake. And also, saying that "US struck and removed most military threats in Iran in a few weeks" is massive overstatement. Iran military targets went from being obliterated, to almost half destroyed, to 60% remain working and active, to "a lot more then we think is still functional" which only god and Iran knows what it means.
  - AnimalMuppet 5mo ago
    China-supplied hardware doing nothing useful may make them a paper tiger. May. The problem is that China probably doesn't sell their top-of-the-line stuff, so we don't really know.
Balgair 5mo ago
> Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Australia are taking notes. Donny also goes back on his word constantly. Look at all the trade agreements that he signed before 'liberation day'. Look at really everything afterwards too. Even if Iran wanted to sign something, they can't. It will mean nothing. They know that.
aaron695 5mo ago
[dead]

by statguy 5mo ago

actionfromafar 5mo ago

That's a pretty wild prediction - Taiwan is also a middle power and could beef up if it wants to.

peruvia 5mo ago

[dead]

nradov 5mo ago

Nah. Seeing how China reneged on the "one country, two systems" promise and wrecked Hong Kong has turned the Taiwanese people more firmly against reunification. Iran would be attacking other nearby states regardless of whether they host US military bases. Iran has a long history of aggression, including sponsoring terrorist groups. Personally I favor a less interventionist US foreign policy but even if we completely disengaged from the Middle East it would still be a violent neighborhood — probably even more so.

pazimzadeh 5mo ago
> Iran has a long history of aggression, including sponsoring terrorist groups The US has a longer history of aggression and sponsoring terrorist groups: Exclusive: CIA Files Prove America Helped Saddam as He Gassed Iran https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-prove-america-helped-saddam-as-he-gassed-iran/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-pro... During the Iran–Iraq War, which began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran on 22 September 1980,[1] the United States adopted a policy of providing support to Iraq in the form of several billion dollars' worth of economic aid, dual-use technology, intelligence sharing (e.g., IMINT), and special operations training.[2] This U.S. support, along with support from most of the Arab world, proved vital in helping Iraq sustain military operations against Iran.[3] The documented sale of dual-use technology, with one notable example being Iraq's acquisition of 45 Bell helicopters in 1985,[4][5] was effectively a workaround for a ban on direct arms transfers; U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East dictated that Iraq was a state sponsor of terrorism because of the Iraqi government's historical ties with groups like the Palestinian Liberation Front and the Abu Nidal Organization, among others.[6] However, this designation was removed in 1982 to facilitate broader support for the Iraqis as the conflict dragged on in Iran's favour. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq_during_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq...
- _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
  [flagged]
  - NomDePlum 5mo ago
    [dead]
  - Muehe 5mo ago
    > [...] Iran targeted Americans for acts of violence. Remind me, what happened in Iran in 1953?
  - bigyabai 5mo ago
    > Iran has been calling for the death and destruction of me, my family, and my country my entire life. America has been kidnapping, killing and torturing Iranian civilians since before you were born: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAVAK https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAVAK
    - _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
      [flagged]
      - bigyabai 5mo ago
        If 10 year old you was born in Shahist Iran, then you, your parents, your grandparents, your friends and your political leadership might be tortured or executed by the American regime for exercising free speech or opposing domestic policy. You are indeed luckier than those 10 year olds, for enduring death threats and not summary executions. Your fears are the ones lucky enough to be considered silly, theirs are mortal panic.
        _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
        [flagged]
oa335 5mo ago
[flagged]
- seanmcdirmid 5mo ago
  The KMT is not in power right now because they are pro-one china/unification. If it was just western-filtered copium, the KMT would not keep losing popular elections. The DPP remains in power because it isn’t the KMT. Your view, as a matter of fact, is mainland-filtered copium. Yes, the rich Taiwanese mainlanders who used to dominate Taiwan politics want a return to the past, but native Taiwanese are more populous and have less vested interest in unification with the mainland do not.
  - oa335 5mo ago
    > Your view, as a matter of fact, is mainland-filtered copium. Yes, the rich Taiwanese mainlanders who used to dominate Taiwan politics want a return to the past, but native Taiwanese are more populous and have less vested interest in unification with the mainland do not. Fair enough, and it seems that polls of Taiwanese support this view as well.
- Saline9515 5mo ago
  Maybe because the PCC is an authoritarian regime, with no respect for human rights (including using prisoners as living organ banks)?
  - dualvariable 5mo ago
    > an authoritarian regime, with no respect for human rights I mean Alex Pretti was murdered because he was exercising his 2nd amendment rights and was getting beaten after having been disarmed and never displaying his firearm. Headlines are full of people who are dying without medical care because they're being incarcerated and shipped overseas due to legal technicalities.
    - Saline9515 5mo ago
      Nice whataboutism, nothing has changed since the USSR, I see! The US also has its problems; this doesn't give the PCC a free pass. And those issues will likely go after the elections, something people in China haven't been able to do since the PCC took over the country. Anyway, shall I discuss the cultural genocide being committed on the Uighurs, or the Tibetans? Or, in a quite bizarre fashion, the descendants of the Mongols? [1] The goulags created during covid? And let's not talk about all the horrors of the Mao-era PCC. Etc, etc... [1]: https://www.economist.com/china/2023/12/20/why-chinas-rulers-fear-genghis-khan https://www.economist.com/china/2023/12/20/why-chinas-rulers...
statguy 5mo ago
The Taiwanese know they can't take on China directly, they now know that Western support is meaningless - in fact it pushes them more into conflict with China. Given a choice, I think the Taiwanese would prefer a Hong Kong like outcome to a Ukraine/UAE like outcome. AFAIK Iran never directly attacked several countries (e.g. UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi, Bahrain) before this war.
- fragmede 5mo ago
  The question you have to ask is, in the story of offense vs defense, can Taiwan mine that srait and deny China access, or does China posses anti-mine technology that counteracts that.
  - maxglute 5mo ago
    TW gets most of energy and calories from strait shipping. It would be PRC mining/denying TW for lulz if anything. Ultimately TW going to have to look to see if they want to be HKers, who got less retarded after kissing PRC boot (see HK kids going to SZ to party) or whether TW wants to be Gaza who capitulates to Israeli demand, because reality is with sufficient force asymmetry, one can destroy civic life enough to force capitulation. And PRC can do that to TW, trivially, with mainland fires alone. The only hold back is the "family across the strait" narrative. TW forceful reunification even if depopulated husk basically done deal, the real question is whether PRC wants to do an Iran and push US security out of east Asia, which is ultimate grand strategic goal. And to be blunt TW is perfect casus belli to spark this. PRC would be net worse off long run getting TW peacefully and but still deal with US security in region. Hence whether Iran can squeeze US out of CENTOM (even marginally) will set huge precedence.
    - statguy 5mo ago
      The down votes to this suggest that many in the west are in denial. China doesn’t need to fight a hot war with Taiwan, they can incrementally pressure Taiwan while their western allies issue impotent statements.
tim333 5mo ago
I think an EU type agreement might be the way to go. Separate countries but in a union. I know Xi would hate it as he wants to be the ruler of all but compare say France and Germany - years of peace under the EU arrangement with Ukraine / Russia with both countries getting wrecked.
- watwut 5mo ago
  EU style union is voluntary one. So no that cant happen.
- Sabinus 5mo ago
  That'll be far too close to the 'one country two systems' promise that China broke when it got control of Hong Kong to get Taiwan to voluntarily to sign up to it.

_DeadFred_ 5mo ago

[flagged]

watwut 5mo ago
China not intervening in Venezuela or Iran situation does not make them paper tigers. It makes them ... not idiots. They are not interrupting the ennemy while that ennemy makes a mistake. And also, saying that "US struck and removed most military threats in Iran in a few weeks" is massive overstatement. Iran military targets went from being obliterated, to almost half destroyed, to 60% remain working and active, to "a lot more then we think is still functional" which only god and Iran knows what it means.
- AnimalMuppet 5mo ago
  China-supplied hardware doing nothing useful may make them a paper tiger. May. The problem is that China probably doesn't sell their top-of-the-line stuff, so we don't really know.

Balgair 5mo ago

> Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Australia are taking notes. Donny also goes back on his word constantly. Look at all the trade agreements that he signed before 'liberation day'. Look at really everything afterwards too. Even if Iran wanted to sign something, they can't. It will mean nothing. They know that.

aaron695 5mo ago

[dead]