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Claude Code is extremely easy to set up and use. I suspect its saturation among software professionals is at the majority of the addressable market. What if th

Claude Code is extremely easy to set up and use. I suspect its saturation among software professionals is at the majority of the addressable market. What if there are no other killer apps for Enterprise? Only CC will produce the level of token churn that could drive huge profits for model providers. The Enterprise market is not as substantial as the rapid success of CC makes seem.

echelon 6mo ago
Missing the Claude Code market was the biggest swing and miss ever. Too busy trying to make TikTok for preteens with $4/generation videos that lost their novelty the minute IP was off the table. Didn't even identify the professional market in video was the correct place to invest, like Kling and ByteDance did. Chasing consumer killed their ascendency. Sam is a ruthless leader and knows how to build an empire, but he's also a distracted leader who chases too many flights of fancy. Without a golden goose like Zuckerberg, every mistake is a knife wound.
- vwvcxv 6mo ago
  They get exactly what they deserve imo. Its pretty embarassing how they have blown the lead. Instead of finding a pathway toward selling tokens in volume (software production) they spread themselves thin and tried to hype up research, sora, web browser... blah blah. Again - they get what they deserve.
- Leynos 6mo ago
  It amazed me that no one picked up on Codex last summer when it was effectively unlimited. I must have burnt through £10k worth of inference whilst still paying £20 a month
  - dyauspitr 6mo ago
    It’s still great. I’ve pumped out 5 apps this month on the $200.
  - distances 6mo ago
    Last summer it was good for certain tasks, but letting it run wild was a recipe for a huge mess where you'd spend more time unraveling it than writing the whole thing by hand. That was my experience, at least.
- bickfordb 6mo ago
  What evidence is there that he knows how to build an empire outside of fundraising?
  - hedmundson 6mo ago
    The 750+ million users of ChatGPT might count for something...
    - tpm 6mo ago
      If they are able to monetise them.
TheDong 6mo ago
What about "cowork", aiming to be the claude code of excel files and pdfs and screenshotting your desktop to tell you what's wrong? Like, that feels like it's also a huge amount of token churn ("sure, I can search every xls file on your machine to find the 2023 invoice from that company"), and very early in its adaption curve. Most people are still using AI as a webpage chatbot to ask questions to and copy+paste between, but running an "openclaw" like assistant, which can access your files, email, and opens you up to wild security attacks, that seems like a really big killer app. Cowork to me also seems like it'll take longer to reach the broader market since the models are less good at "use the mouse and keyboard to do this repetitive task" than "write code", but I see it as having killer-app potential with lots of token churn.
- stingraycharles 6mo ago
  > What about "cowork", aiming to be the claude code of excel files and pdfs and screenshotting your desktop to tell you what's wrong? I’ve been using these types of functions for a while for some specific use cases, and it’s super useful for this. Eg go into my budgeting app and explain to me why a certain discrepancy between forecast and actual occurred, which would otherwise cost me a huge amount of time. I’ve also been using Cowriter AI, which actively learns from what you’re doing by taking screenshots of your screen every few seconds. These types of utilities are just starting, they’re underexplored, and will definitely burn lots of tokens (while creating value).
- dagamer34 6mo ago
  I think The Verge said it the best. Taking advantage of these tools to the maximum requires you to have "software brain" which the average person does not have. They struggle to set up a simple automation in their smart home platform of choice. There is little reason to believe they will take the leap to use such tools to simplify daily tasks because it requires people to think about which daily tasks can be simplified and automated.
  - nopinsight 6mo ago
    I don't think 'software brain' is required for non-coding tasks. Rather, it requires 'manager brain', the ability to delegate, direct, and review the output. Manager brain is more prevalent than software brain and likely learnable by many knowledge workers who don't yet have it.
groceryheist 6mo ago
Claude Code is rare product that is both beneficial and economically addictive, where its use increases demand for itself, at least in the supply / demand range for code we are accustomed to. It makes making software so much easier that Claude coding custom software becomes a solution to all sorts of past annoyances. Maintaining the software is easy enough thanks to Claude code.
- echelon 6mo ago
  > Claude Code is rare product that is both beneficial and economically addictive, I'm in the film and engineering spaces, and I can honestly say the same about image and video models. There is so much fun in all of these tools, and the productivity gains are insane. I shoot film, but I never would have been able to do anything like this before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDdsKJl92H4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDdsKJl92H4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqoCWdOwr2U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqoCWdOwr2U Today, I saw AI OR DIE with this banger: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNbmoVdirxw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNbmoVdirxw Gossip Goblin is doing incredible work as usual. Dude is a savant and would have killed it in Hollywood if he'd had a chance before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rzl7nUdEs4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rzl7nUdEs4 Corridor Crew is leaning in and building new tools: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3Dfw969itU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3Dfw969itU There's just so much incredible stuff being made by really brilliant people that never would have had the chance before. And these tools are literally brand spanking new. We're just getting started.
  - ericd 6mo ago
    Thanks, these are a real trip, especially loved Pi Hard.
  - bobajeff 6mo ago
    That's my view too. I love what people are doing with this stuff. I really want to get a decent rig to start doing this stuff locally someday.
  - dyauspitr 6mo ago
    Uh, how is this possible? Is this all Veo 3? How are they getting such fantastic continuity across clips?
gagagagaga 6mo ago
[dead]
teaearlgraycold 6mo ago
HN is a bubble. I hear people from outside of Silicon Valley that only just started trying out Claude Code recently. There's still a ton of developers yet to jump on board.
- _3u10 6mo ago
  CC kinda sucks compared to opencode & kimi / minimax. It’s slow and annoying and the UI is subpar.
timmmmmmay 6mo ago
it's been pretty funny seeing people who did not predict Claude Code's success and previously said the whole sector was a nonsense dead end now saying, well okay there's one massively successful killer app, but what if that's the only one ever?
- majormajor 6mo ago
  The scrutiny is because the actions of the company suggest that the company itself has no idea what another killer app could be. Let alone enough to reach a 1T valuation.
- jcgrillo 6mo ago
  The whole sector is still quite likely a nonsense dead end.
- Gagarin1917 6mo ago
  It’s the second killer app. The first was AI Chat. It was genuinely game changing and still is.
utopiah 6mo ago
> Only CC will produce the level of token churn that could drive huge profits for model providers. Are they actually driving any profit? I mean actual profit, not "tokens" or users or profit but ignoring inference costs, same ignoring training, R&D, etc. I'm not arguing against how useful it is, nor how popular, just the basic total spent - total earned.
operatingthetan 6mo ago
Us devs have shiny object syndrome. We will use whatever we perceive to be be best at the moment and move on. People are already souring on Opus 4.6 due to what appears to be opaque changes to it by Anthropic. For any of these companies to be successful they need to get to a point where their models stop growing and compute gets multiples cheaper.
torginus 6mo ago
What is incredibly disgusting for me, is the idea that there can be only one winner in the stock market, which spits in he face of free market competition. This is not an AI thing, this is a stocks thing, which Ive been complaining about incessantly. If a given domain, like AI, has competition, that means you have to sell things at cost + margin, and rush ahead or be crushed by competitors. Will definitely make you good money, but wont make you a king. This is not the kind of money people involved with these kinds of companies are looking for. AI right now looks like a competiton, with many horses in the race, which are more or less building the same product. It will hard to squeeze and enshittify this considering people can just jump to another vendor, thus if the current market structure were to prevail, investors would go. Thus competition has to go. Altman knows this, and tried to position OpenAI as the obvious winner in this competition, but I guess in the process he managed to alienate people, so now he's not doing so well. But who knows what the future will bring?
- tim333 6mo ago
  I don't think it's true there can only be one winner. Lots of industries have multiple successful large companies.
  - torginus 6mo ago
    Well, monopolies or cartels are better at extracting wealth from the market, while fierce competition destroys margins thus profits. That means a monopolistic company is great investment vehicle, while one that sells goods at cost is a crappy one.

echelon 6mo ago

Missing the Claude Code market was the biggest swing and miss ever. Too busy trying to make TikTok for preteens with $4/generation videos that lost their novelty the minute IP was off the table. Didn't even identify the professional market in video was the correct place to invest, like Kling and ByteDance did. Chasing consumer killed their ascendency. Sam is a ruthless leader and knows how to build an empire, but he's also a distracted leader who chases too many flights of fancy. Without a golden goose like Zuckerberg, every mistake is a knife wound.

vwvcxv 6mo ago
They get exactly what they deserve imo. Its pretty embarassing how they have blown the lead. Instead of finding a pathway toward selling tokens in volume (software production) they spread themselves thin and tried to hype up research, sora, web browser... blah blah. Again - they get what they deserve.
Leynos 6mo ago
It amazed me that no one picked up on Codex last summer when it was effectively unlimited. I must have burnt through £10k worth of inference whilst still paying £20 a month
- dyauspitr 6mo ago
  It’s still great. I’ve pumped out 5 apps this month on the $200.
- distances 6mo ago
  Last summer it was good for certain tasks, but letting it run wild was a recipe for a huge mess where you'd spend more time unraveling it than writing the whole thing by hand. That was my experience, at least.
bickfordb 6mo ago
What evidence is there that he knows how to build an empire outside of fundraising?
- hedmundson 6mo ago
  The 750+ million users of ChatGPT might count for something...
  - tpm 6mo ago
    If they are able to monetise them.

TheDong 6mo ago

What about "cowork", aiming to be the claude code of excel files and pdfs and screenshotting your desktop to tell you what's wrong? Like, that feels like it's also a huge amount of token churn ("sure, I can search every xls file on your machine to find the 2023 invoice from that company"), and very early in its adaption curve. Most people are still using AI as a webpage chatbot to ask questions to and copy+paste between, but running an "openclaw" like assistant, which can access your files, email, and opens you up to wild security attacks, that seems like a really big killer app. Cowork to me also seems like it'll take longer to reach the broader market since the models are less good at "use the mouse and keyboard to do this repetitive task" than "write code", but I see it as having killer-app potential with lots of token churn.

stingraycharles 6mo ago
> What about "cowork", aiming to be the claude code of excel files and pdfs and screenshotting your desktop to tell you what's wrong? I’ve been using these types of functions for a while for some specific use cases, and it’s super useful for this. Eg go into my budgeting app and explain to me why a certain discrepancy between forecast and actual occurred, which would otherwise cost me a huge amount of time. I’ve also been using Cowriter AI, which actively learns from what you’re doing by taking screenshots of your screen every few seconds. These types of utilities are just starting, they’re underexplored, and will definitely burn lots of tokens (while creating value).
dagamer34 6mo ago
I think The Verge said it the best. Taking advantage of these tools to the maximum requires you to have "software brain" which the average person does not have. They struggle to set up a simple automation in their smart home platform of choice. There is little reason to believe they will take the leap to use such tools to simplify daily tasks because it requires people to think about which daily tasks can be simplified and automated.
- nopinsight 6mo ago
  I don't think 'software brain' is required for non-coding tasks. Rather, it requires 'manager brain', the ability to delegate, direct, and review the output. Manager brain is more prevalent than software brain and likely learnable by many knowledge workers who don't yet have it.

groceryheist 6mo ago

Claude Code is rare product that is both beneficial and economically addictive, where its use increases demand for itself, at least in the supply / demand range for code we are accustomed to. It makes making software so much easier that Claude coding custom software becomes a solution to all sorts of past annoyances. Maintaining the software is easy enough thanks to Claude code.

echelon 6mo ago
> Claude Code is rare product that is both beneficial and economically addictive, I'm in the film and engineering spaces, and I can honestly say the same about image and video models. There is so much fun in all of these tools, and the productivity gains are insane. I shoot film, but I never would have been able to do anything like this before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDdsKJl92H4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDdsKJl92H4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqoCWdOwr2U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqoCWdOwr2U Today, I saw AI OR DIE with this banger: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNbmoVdirxw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNbmoVdirxw Gossip Goblin is doing incredible work as usual. Dude is a savant and would have killed it in Hollywood if he'd had a chance before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rzl7nUdEs4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rzl7nUdEs4 Corridor Crew is leaning in and building new tools: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3Dfw969itU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3Dfw969itU There's just so much incredible stuff being made by really brilliant people that never would have had the chance before. And these tools are literally brand spanking new. We're just getting started.
- ericd 6mo ago
  Thanks, these are a real trip, especially loved Pi Hard.
- bobajeff 6mo ago
  That's my view too. I love what people are doing with this stuff. I really want to get a decent rig to start doing this stuff locally someday.
- dyauspitr 6mo ago
  Uh, how is this possible? Is this all Veo 3? How are they getting such fantastic continuity across clips?

gagagagaga 6mo ago

[dead]

teaearlgraycold 6mo ago

HN is a bubble. I hear people from outside of Silicon Valley that only just started trying out Claude Code recently. There's still a ton of developers yet to jump on board.

_3u10 6mo ago
CC kinda sucks compared to opencode & kimi / minimax. It’s slow and annoying and the UI is subpar.

timmmmmmay 6mo ago

it's been pretty funny seeing people who did not predict Claude Code's success and previously said the whole sector was a nonsense dead end now saying, well okay there's one massively successful killer app, but what if that's the only one ever?

majormajor 6mo ago
The scrutiny is because the actions of the company suggest that the company itself has no idea what another killer app could be. Let alone enough to reach a 1T valuation.
jcgrillo 6mo ago
The whole sector is still quite likely a nonsense dead end.
Gagarin1917 6mo ago
It’s the second killer app. The first was AI Chat. It was genuinely game changing and still is.

utopiah 6mo ago

> Only CC will produce the level of token churn that could drive huge profits for model providers. Are they actually driving any profit? I mean actual profit, not "tokens" or users or profit but ignoring inference costs, same ignoring training, R&D, etc. I'm not arguing against how useful it is, nor how popular, just the basic total spent - total earned.

operatingthetan 6mo ago

Us devs have shiny object syndrome. We will use whatever we perceive to be be best at the moment and move on. People are already souring on Opus 4.6 due to what appears to be opaque changes to it by Anthropic. For any of these companies to be successful they need to get to a point where their models stop growing and compute gets multiples cheaper.

torginus 6mo ago

What is incredibly disgusting for me, is the idea that there can be only one winner in the stock market, which spits in he face of free market competition. This is not an AI thing, this is a stocks thing, which Ive been complaining about incessantly. If a given domain, like AI, has competition, that means you have to sell things at cost + margin, and rush ahead or be crushed by competitors. Will definitely make you good money, but wont make you a king. This is not the kind of money people involved with these kinds of companies are looking for. AI right now looks like a competiton, with many horses in the race, which are more or less building the same product. It will hard to squeeze and enshittify this considering people can just jump to another vendor, thus if the current market structure were to prevail, investors would go. Thus competition has to go. Altman knows this, and tried to position OpenAI as the obvious winner in this competition, but I guess in the process he managed to alienate people, so now he's not doing so well. But who knows what the future will bring?

tim333 6mo ago
I don't think it's true there can only be one winner. Lots of industries have multiple successful large companies.
- torginus 6mo ago
  Well, monopolies or cartels are better at extracting wealth from the market, while fierce competition destroys margins thus profits. That means a monopolistic company is great investment vehicle, while one that sells goods at cost is a crappy one.