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https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254 https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254 They admit no returns. But it does seem like
by tekno45 6mo ago
https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254 https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254
They admit no returns.
But it does seem like a fun project and nowhere does it say anything about returns or profits so not scammy imo just funny meme backed code
- sterlingcrispin 6mo agoYes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data
- raincole 6mo ago> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I wonder what it means exactly. Typical Polymarket looks like this: X happens before May. [Yes][No] X happens before June. [Yes][No] X happens before July. [Yes][No] ... So even if X ended up happens in December, it's still 12.5% Yes and 87.5% No?
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- traderj0e 6mo agoThat's one event containing three markets, each yes/no. And in a way each market is two separate markets, buy/sell yes and buy/sell no, but they mirror each other.
- raincole 6mo agoI understand that. That's not my question tho. I am asking for the exact meaning of the 73% number.
- lazyasciiart 6mo agoAnd how do you report it in May?
- pinkmuffinere 6mo ago> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.
- traderj0e 6mo agoIt's not. But also a lot of those stats thrown around are misleading.
- pinkmuffinere 6mo agoIf the average no costs less than 73 cents, but the 73% of all polymarkets resolve to No, that would imply that the nothing-ever-happens strategy here is profitable. Are you claiming that it is profitable? Or are one of those premises incorrect? Edit: conversely, if the average no costs _more_ than 73 cents, but the 73% of all polymarkets resolve to No, that would imply that an everything-always-happens strategy is profitable (neglecting slippage)
- traderj0e 6mo agoFrom what I've seen and tested, it's been profitable, for the reason you said. Variance and other caveats caused me to not pursue it further. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47754918 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47754918
- Majromax 6mo ago> Edit: conversely, if the average no costs _more_ than 73 cents, but the 73% of all polymarkets resolve to No, that would imply that an everything-always-happens strategy is profitable (neglecting slippage) Or just the bid-ask spread; price no at 73.25 and yes at 27.5 and you have a profitable but theoretical mid-market price.
- cheschire 6mo agoAre you willing to pay $.27 for that perspective? Sounds like we have a market!
- 6mo ago
- tekno45 6mo agoits funny, tells you it barely works, and its a good meme. Successful project imo.
- craftkiller 6mo agoIn addition, it serves as a good template for writing your own polymarket bot with whatever logic you want.
- theginger 6mo agoDoes the existence of that knowledge make a slight bias lowering the odd on no? I could fork this and with a 1 line change earn dozens of dollars as long as I don't tell anyone what that secret change is.
- zahlman 6mo agoNo, I think the bias is really just a reflection of how propositions are phrased. We could imagine a mirror-world prediction market that offers all the same propositions, but phrased oppositely: e.g. a market in "person X will die by Y date" becomes a market in "person X will survive until Y date". And in that market, we would see a bias towards propositions resolving as Yes.
- some_random 6mo agoIt doesn't matter if 99% resolve no, if they're priced appropriately betting no on every single one won't make you money.
- treyd 6mo agoThat's a massive "if".
- some_random 6mo agoTotally, that's the entire conjecture of this bot. My point is just that the odds of the underlying events are irrelevant, what matters is if they're matched with the betting price
- irishcoffee 6mo ago[flagged]
- some_random 6mo agoYou are either reading way too much into what I am saying or statistically illiterate.
- CyberDildonics 6mo agoOf course, they were just explaining the basics of statistics.
- jfengel 6mo agoIf they're appropriately priced, you can't win money at all, unless you have insider knowledge.
- okhobb 6mo agoThe purpose of prediction markets is to communicate insider knowledge.
- ryandrake 6mo agoFor the uninitiated, I believe the meme comes from Reddit, where there is one criticism subreddit, r/ThatHappened where people accuse other Redditors of making up stories of events that never actually happened, and then a meta-criticism subreddit, r/Nothingeverhapens, where people make fun of r/ThatHappened as conspiracy theorists who think everything posted online is fake. Hard to tell how much of each subreddit is trolling and how much are people earnestly criticizing each other.
- eudamoniac 6mo agoIt comes from 4chan, like all decent memes https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/nothing-ever-happens https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/nothing-ever-happens
- nicman23 6mo agoreminds me of that one story when someone won a poker bot competition by always going all in
- topspin 6mo ago"just funny meme backed code" I laughed. That's inspired. Quite the nerd-snipe as well, based on the rapidly accumulating threads on effectiveness, probabilities and markets.
- yyurgenson 6mo agoIt must be true that more markets resolve to no than yes because many markets are linked and only have one winner. (ie. if there are 10 people in the race for who will be the next president, 9 will resolve to no)
- jmcgough 6mo agoWhen people do find an edge they tend not to share it ;)
- Animats 6mo ago> They admit no returns. So it's not a useful trading strategy. Good to know. It might have worked out that the human tendency towards optimism biased the Yes side, but Polymarket is watched closely enough by traders that the pricing is apparently realistic. Now if you could bet against minor crypto coins, which almost always go down... But if you could, there would be traders pricing them realistically. Everybody has analytics now, and mispriced markets are detected and exploited quickly.
- eru 6mo agoI'm not sure the Yes side is usually the optimistic side?
- aaron695 6mo ago[dead]