8 ms·
U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years
- swarnie 7mo agoIt's been a fairly stress free quarter in rainbow bear land. Buy puts, wait for Trump to say something dumb (don't worry, it won't take long), sell, return to step one.
- sharemywin 7mo agoand you don't even need to hold them until friday. at the very least sell your bullish position on thursday nights.
- lotsofpulp 7mo agoHe says dumb things all the time, but that seems like it would have been a poor strategy from Apr 2025 to Feb 2026.
- derwiki 7mo agoThere’s a good reason common advice is to not time the market
- looksjjhg 7mo agoIs it great yet ?
- the_doctah 7mo ago[flagged]
- joe_mamba 7mo agoCrazy how for a guy so obsessed with self image and legacy, Trump is leaving behind a world where he'll be known for making everything shit that it was before him. Amazing. How does this happen?
- gilleain 7mo ago... but have you considered the new ballroom?
- ahartmetz 7mo agoStupidity - the most destructive force in the world. Evil at least benefits someone.
- citrin_ru 7mo agoTrump net worth is $3 billion more than it was before he become a president. Likely more money was made via insider trading by his friends and family. So it's not like no one did benefit. Net loss for the country and the world is orders of magnitude higher though.
- worldsayshi 7mo agoThe more I see the stock market dropping due to idiotic mistakes that should've been very preventable, the more I think how beneficial it must be to be one of the insiders that accidentally let those idiotic things slip through. Are we as small savers just idiots feeding this idiot machine?
- buellerbueller 7mo ago>Are we as small savers just idiots feeding this idiot machine? Yes. 401k should never have been the main retirement plan.
- lotsofpulp 7mo agoI assume you mean low cost broad market index funds when you write 401k, but what other mechanism has offered financial security to so many other than having lots of productive and well networked kids that believe in helping you when you are old? There is, of course, taxpayer funded retirement benefits, but that is just taking from others’ kids.
- blitzar 7mo agoI don't know why you are asking about pedophiles and sex trafficing - The Dow is over 50,000 right now, the S&P is at almost 7,000, and the Nasdaq is smashing records. Americans' 401(k) savings are booming, thats what we should be talking about.
- nine_zeros 7mo ago[dead]
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- gbil 7mo agoit was 50k in February but 45k today, S&P down to 6300 from almost 7k in February and the latest 401(k) reports are from Q4 2025 so your numbers are based on months ago before the Iran war.
- mikewarot 7mo agoIn less than a decade, the Dow will likely go over 1,000,000. (Because the Dollar is about to tank) I used to believe the unwinding of the Petrodollar would take a generation, it's now likely to happen this year. Trump's wild late night rants threatening civilian infrastructure gave all the cover Iran needed to take out the infrastructure of any of our allies that have US connections or bases. The effects of those attacks on infrastructure already completed will take years, if not decades to repair. The US, like Russia before it, has shown itself to be a paper tiger. We need to get the Epstein class out of government at all levels, deal with the consequences of the return to hard currency, and rebuild what we can of our nation.
- AnimalMuppet 7mo ago20x inflation in 10 years? I don't see it. Even unwinding the petrodollar won't do that.
- mikewarot 7mo agoAt some point, the only thing that will arrest the fall of the dollar will be backing it with gold, at a MUCH higher price, such that all the dollars outstanding match our gold reserves. It would be somewhere between $50,000 and $150,000 per ounce.
- guzfip 7mo ago> We need to get the Epstein class out of government at all levels. This won’t be achieved without extreme violence. These people are entrenched in some of the most powerful positions in our globalized world.
- fabioborellini 7mo agoThe US constitution has 2nd amendment exactly for this purpose. Just start the extreme violence already. These people are killing tens of thousands of people to gain personal wealth and to cover their existing crimes. Maybe millions, if they aren't stopped.
- 7mo ago
- wat10000 7mo agoIt certainly is interesting living in a declining empire.
- spicyusername 7mo agoThis is a common refrain you hear a lot. I get why people say it, because it feels good to say when you feel bad. But the decline of the Roman empire took nearly 500 years. Even the bronze age collapse, which you might say happened fast, took more than 100. A thought I have every time someone parrots this is, "what is reasonable to expect?". Would you have heard people saying the same thing during the civil war? During the gilded age? After the stock market crash? During the 1970s oil crisis or the severe increase in violent crime during the 1970s and 80s? Spain was an actual dictatorship in recent memory, and now you'll hear Americans fantasizing about fleeing there. Should we not expect an empire to have ups and downs?
- WillAdams 7mo agoIt would be nice if folks would learn from the lessons of the past, and work out how to avoid the mistakes which caused the bad times --- a co-worker and I were unique for having a story/tradition out of the Great Depression, the story was of my grandfather taking his year's tobacco crop in to Richmond in his truck, what it sold for wouldn't buy gas to drive it back home, so he sold it and walked back (a trip I re-created on my bicycle when I was young, my first century), the tradition is that Christmas gifts are described by a riddle, and when gifts are opened, the entire family gathers in a circle, the recipient reads the riddle out loud, and everyone makes a guess (opening presents is an all-day affair). Maybe folks would be more careful of their money or the economy if there were more oral traditions along those lines --- one of my wife's aunts just passed away, a child of the Depression, her home was filled with home goods and food stuffs purchased when on sale beyond any reasonable expectation of her individual use, but all perfectly organized and ready to prevent future need.
- haswell 7mo agoI do think your comment is bringing up valid questions/points. One thing that worries me about the current state of things is scale and speed. Modern technology, markets, communication systems and supply chains make it possible for things to go catastrophically wrong very quickly for a massive number of people. I think this is somewhat unique to the current era. I still don’t buy into the belief that we’re absolutely witnessing a collapse. Studying history shows that things have been far worse (politically, socially geopolitically, etc) and we’ve come out the other side numerous times. So I think “ups and downs” is probably the right way to look at this. I do worry about the impact of modern technology on this equation.
- commandersaki 7mo agoMeh, boom and bust cycles.
- postflopclarity 7mo agomore of a completely unforced self-inflicted error than some kind of naturally occurring "bust cycle"
- commandersaki 7mo agoEh it's all accounted for.
- bix6 7mo agoSo what does this mean for technology? Well there are 3 huge IPOs supposed to go out this year. This hurts liquidity and clogs the pipes. And then for early stage venture, where I work, it will be harder to raise funds and move new ventures forward. Especially given the extreme shifting of public assets to loyalists. Overall it’s a bleak time for American exceptionalism. The only companies that are in vogue are AI and Defense. Biotech continues to get hammered because who needs medicine when we can just bomb people with AI right?
- gadflyinyoureye 7mo agoNot even defenses. How is RTX down?
- roysting 7mo agoI suspect it’s the unwinding of the Yen carry trade and/or indirectly connected to running for shelter for several reasons including the massive bomb in private lending and subsequently private equity that is ticking down and doing so even faster now that Trump cut the wrong wire to distract from the Epstein files and him being a child rapist. This all seems structural, as indicates that in the middle of a war even military stocks are down, which indicates deep rot or deep lack of confidence in at least the stock market.
- gadflyinyoureye 7mo agoThat could be at least part of it. My understanding as to why gold dropped is that many countries essentially got market called. The Oil countries don't have cash reserves without selling, but they do have gold. Taking in London is that the Saudi's have sold a good amount of gold. China stopped buying in Q4 2025. Others followed suit. Hell, Russia is blocking gold exports at the end of the month.
- chadash 7mo agoBad quarter for certain, but to keep things in perspective, the S&P is still up 13% over the past 12 months (likely 14% as soon as the market opens in 20 minutes). There's nothing magical about a "quarter". Had Q1 2025 ended 4 days later, it would have been significantly worse than this, but then the market went on to have a huge rally after that.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- paxys 7mo agoA year ago was exactly the market bottom due to tariff drama. 13% up from that isn't exactly a shining achievement. Go back another couple months to when Trump took office and the total gains have been ~3.5%. A couple more random missile strikes and it'll go into the negative. The only people making money in today's market are those with insider info about US economic and military actions (aka Trump and his associates).
- the_doctah 7mo ago[flagged]
- zug_zug 7mo agoWell the thing is -- when you have rampant inflation, the cost of everything in USD goes up -- be it houses, eggs, or even stocks. So when you subtract out how much the value of the USD has gone down relative to other currencies it's basically another 10% drop.
- francisofascii 7mo agoEggs are pretty cheap right now. Housing and healthcare are why Americans struggle with affordability. Food, gas, etc. are all just drops in the bucket.
- bnycum 7mo ago
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- buellerbueller 7mo agoWorst President Ever.
- mindslight 7mo agoDepending on how you measure, not as bad as the one we had a few terms ago. There was a pandemic, which should have been a unifying event the president just had to straightforwardly lead us through while letting the domain experts at agencies handle the details. But instead he must have thought he was still campaigning or something, and staked out some edgelord position that we should just ignore the public health emergency. Predictably, this caused a lot of societal chaos from people who weren't good at thinking for themselves following nonsensical direction from an authority figure. I'm sure glad that guy was only around for one term. I remember him being a pretty sore loser too.
- ajam1507 7mo agoDid you mean to post this comment in 2021?
- mindslight 7mo agoDid you mean to take that course on human sarcasm? I can understand how a one or two sentence comment that is wholly sarcastic is readily misinterpreted, ala Poe's Law. But my context should have been pretty clear.
- HaZeust 7mo agoIt didn't land well; and GPs quip was astute on how the tone and narrative of your comment is 5 years outdated, regardless.
- mindslight 7mo agoYou miss 100% of the shots you don't take. And talking about what happened in the past is called historic, not outdated.
- snackoverflow 7mo agoArchive Link - http://archive.today/xoixt http://archive.today/xoixt
- shevy-java 7mo agoI think the current mafia in charge of the US government, along with their insider trading, needs to financially compensate the rest of the world. First, of course, regular US citizens who were frauded by them; but then also the rest of the world for driving up the prices - first via AI (may be legal but I find it a scam still, look at the RAM prices), now by driving the prices of energy up. Why do I have to pay the recent increase in inflation? Trump and his oligarch mafia should pay for that. The Epstein connection may indeed be much larger than we know - there must be a new, full, thorough investigation, not just by the USA; the USA covers up. ALL countries need to uncover how big and deep the kompromat reaches here.
- jmyeet 7mo agoThe point of culture war issues is to distract the population so they don't talk about economics. Your rent isn't sky high because of undocumented migrants or because there's a trans girl in Utah who wants to play hockey in college. It's sky-high because landlords have effectively colluded to raise your rent through tools like RealPage. In fact the entire goal of dynamic pricing is to raise prices. That's it. Undocumented migrants in particular are vital to the economy. The agricultural and construction secotrs would collapse without them. They are paid sub-minimum wage because they're undocumented. And if they complain about low pay or working conditions, you just call in ICE to round them up, pay a token fine and rinse and repeat [1]. While people are distracted with these culture war issues, you proceed with your actual agenda of giving all the money in the government coffers to the already-wealthy. The problem comes when these culture war issues become the goal not the distraction such as doing mass deportations. At that point you're now molesting the money and the wealthy will only put up with that for so long. So now we have what is (IMHO) the biggest geopolitical error in US history by starting a war of choice in Iran with no specific goals, no exit strategy and no path to victory (whatever that means). Sure defense contractors benefit as we have to replenish all those munitions we're using but you're spending $1-2 billion every day for a war you cannot win while strangling the global economy, destroying alliances and eroding US power. And on top of that you're insider trading, which isn't money for nothing. By manipulating SPY puts, for example, you're stealing money from your donors and from ordinary people. This could ultimately hurt the supposed "integrity" of the markets. Part of the reason the Cabinet is filled with incompetent sycophants is to mitigate the risk of being 25A'ed, meaning removed from office via the 25th Amendment. My prediction is that if a large scale ground invasion happens in Iran and it goes badly, which I think it will, to the tune of tens of thousands of casulaties, the president will be 25A'ed. [1]: https://abc7.com/post/ice-agents-arrest-680-in-largest-raids-in-at-least-10-years/5450284/ https://abc7.com/post/ice-agents-arrest-680-in-largest-raids...
- tim333 7mo agoThe markets go up and down and were expensive and due for a correction but I'm not sure the very stable genius with his tariff and oil wars is helping.
- brodouevencode 7mo agoYet earnings estimates remain solid.
- mancerayder 7mo agoDoesn't inflation paradoxically induce stock market pumping? If you're nervous about money market and bonds not delivering returns above inflation, don't you have no choice but invest? Especially in immoveable companies in the mag7?
- scoofy 7mo agoIf you're worried about inflation, you want to move into stable commodities. Normally I look at farmland, but given the fluctuations in fertilizer prices that might not be as stable. The other option is foreign bonds, but you do open yourself up to exchange rate risk, but given your bet on USD inflation, it's probably not a serious concern.