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The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculat

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they can while the 'grabbing is still good.' Without this immoral looting, our government could do a better job of protecting US citizens as our empire collapses.

jmull 7mo ago
"for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up" That's quite a claim. A "whopper" one might say.
smitty1e 7mo ago
Depending upon which party controls the White House, numbers seem to be released to support a predictable narrative, then adjusted later. But that's probably just my lying' eyes.
- cyanydeez 7mo ago
  Now they just stop releasing. Thats a sizeable change. Even if you have a known bias, we can adjusy for that bias. But if you just stop collecting data? No, these are not your father's red versus blue stats.
  - smitty1e 7mo ago
    One is safe to assume partisan shenanigans with every single government program and number until proven otherwise.
    - cyanydeez 7mo ago
      Thats great; that assumption can be used to adjust expectations of results. But you can't gaze into an abyss of "I told the guys to just not collect the data" That's beyond partisan, that's anti-social nonsense. All this bothsides stuff is the difference between a black hole and a mobius strip.
      - smitty1e 7mo ago
        Look, it's all a bunch of rectal sunshine: https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/01/22/the-truth-behind-obamas-job-numbers/ https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/01/22/the-truth-behind-oba...
- whateveracct 7mo ago
  this admin is different
- kenferry 7mo ago
  Oh yeah? Like when inflation numbers were very high under Biden? Please give specifics. Otherwise this is just grouchiness.
cyanydeez 7mo ago
Sure, but thetes a sizeable diffetence when skewed data becomes no-data. Context has power. Removing it is thining the herd of power.
- pocksuppet 7mo ago
  I say removing skewed data forces people to confront reality as it actually is. Instead of "This economy sucks!" "Yeah, but look at the data, it's getting better..." Now we just have "This economy sucks!" "Yeah"
  - cyanydeez 7mo ago
    what. People absolutely have no idea what's going on without large, organized data. The point is, the argument isn't "this data is right leaning" vs "this data is left leaning" or whatever your skew-scope is. The argument at present: "We don't need to know to know X" versus "Of course we need to know X". And ther'es clearly a fascist convincing people it's all useless while they ply their grift of choice.
quacked 7mo ago
The frustrating thing about the empire collapse is that it doesn't need to happen. There are still tons of highly energized and ostensibly disciplined and competitive people here. It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands and the aesthetic and moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued, for reasons unclear.
- input_sh 7mo ago
  I would argue the empire already collapsed, about a year ago when DOGE was tasked with killing every form of soft power that were put in place to present the country in the best possible light across the world. Even with tons of talented and well-intentioned people and everyone fully aligned to re-build everything broken, it'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 7mo ago
    > It'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks. There is some truth to this. Other examples of crossing the line and breaking long-term trust would be: To Canada: Statements about Canada last year. To Europe: The idiocy around Greenland earlier this year To the Middle East: Current events.
    - input_sh 7mo ago
      If I may go a step further in history: tearing up the JCPOA (AKA the Iran deal) was like shouting from a megaphone "the US word means nothing now". Even the Palestine situation could've been predicted 6 years before Oct 7th when the US was the very first nation to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, before 5 others followed (none of them "significant"). Things have definitely accelerated in the second term, but it's not like there weren't signs that political leaders definitely noticed were disruptive, even if the wider public weren't as aware at the time.
    - MSFT_Edging 7mo ago
      I do wonder how far certain acts could go in rebuilding the trust. Ie real actual legal liability. Line up anyone who did insider trading, the doge guys, the big mouths in the big house, and put them through a zero tolerance military tribunal. No bullshit kangaroo court where they're let off with a slap on the wrist because they're rich. I mean strip every last one of these motherfuckers of everything they're worth. 180 the kangaroo court. Make a public mockery of them. Posters everywhere. Think of it as a peace offering for the rest of the world. We could even include the war on terror guys in there, all the liars who claimed WMDs could go to the same federal prison. No cushions.
culi 7mo ago
I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prepper-bunkers-apocalypse-survival-richest-rushkoff https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected by the coming climate crisis? It only got worse from there. Which was the greater threat: global warming or biological warfare? How long should one plan to be able to survive with no outside help? Should a shelter have its own air supply? What was the likelihood of groundwater contamination? Finally, the CEO of a brokerage house explained that he had nearly completed building his own underground bunker system, and asked: “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?” The event. That was their euphemism for the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, solar storm, unstoppable virus, or malicious computer hack that takes everything down.
- iugtmkbdfil834 7mo ago
  As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.
  - mentalgear 7mo ago
    Exactly: The 0.01% Elite bleeding out the planet and their biggest worries are: 1. How do I keep my doomsday bunker servants in line? 2. Or is a ticket to Mars the better option?
    - abirch 7mo ago
      Mars isn't a good option due to lack of magnetosphere. Personally if you want to propagate life by shooting containers of RNA at different extraterrestrial plants.
      - 7mo ago
jeffbee 7mo ago
Your comment is broadly misleading. In fact, I would say that "shadow stats" guys like you have enabled the destruction of the system by creating the space to cast doubt on the valid methods used by BLS. BLS unemployment metrics have a valid basis and where they differ from Eurostat those differences are minor and with rational basis (such as 16 vs. 15 year old starting age).
- iugtmkbdfil834 7mo ago
  I don't say stuff like this very often, but are you actually blaming a victim for dealing with the reality of government bsing its own stats instead of the government that allowed this bs to continue? BLS had only one thing going for it and it is mostly that it was used for long enough time that changing methodology would prevent us from being able to compare it prior time ranges. That is it. Otherwise, the methodology itself is seriously flawed ( and likely was from get go, but these days, it is absolutely the worst possible mix of options ). Honestly, your comment made me mildly angry. That said, can you say why you believe parent's comment is misleading?
  - jeffbee 7mo ago
    Do you have a substantive complaint to make about the BLS methodology? So far all I see in your remark is shadowstats vibes.
    - iugtmkbdfil834 7mo ago
      I can't tell if you are serious or not. Lets assume for a moment that there was once a benefit to BLS survey methodology ( I would argue otherwise, but w/e ). Is it a good methodology today? So my main argument ( and frankly the only argument that should matter ) is that is a bad fit for the goal of estimating values ( even though we do know its failure modes ). Is that not enough?
      - patmorgan23 7mo ago
        What are the alternatives, and do other countries labor statistics agencies use them?
gruez 7mo ago
>Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries Source? For unemployment, isn't the U-3 definition used for "headline unemployment" consistent to most other countries?
- malfist 7mo ago
  It is. Just fox news screams about the "true unemployment" U6 number when Democratics are in charge and then go back to reporting on U3 when a Republican is in office. That said, measurement is not as easy today with so many gig workers. Government data is often driven by proxies because its too hard to measure directly and the number of people getting an llc for their uber/doordash/lyft/etc job is throwing off our math. Government currently uses number of new businesses as a proxy since generally people starting businesses are hiring people.
  - kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 7mo ago
    > Just fox news screams about the "true unemployment" U6 number when Democratics are in charge and then go back to reporting on U3 when a Republican is in office. To be fair, CNN and MSNBC do the same in reverse.
    - rkuykendall-com 7mo ago
      CNN and MSNBC are not propaganda networks in the way that Fox is.
      - kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 7mo ago
        Or, you've bought into the propaganda and you have lost your objectivity.
varispeed 7mo ago
[flagged]
- tehjoker 7mo ago
  We are tightly integrated with Israel, joined at the hip, but you realize we are at war with Russia right? If we were controlled by Russia, we would not be at war with them.
  - pocksuppet 7mo ago
    Are you? You're about to remove sanctions on them, not because they agreed to peace, because you destroyed your own other options (the Persian Gulf).
    - sieabahlpark 7mo ago
      [dead]
  - whattheheckheck 7mo ago
    You would think...
  - PaulDavisThe1st 7mo ago
    Many parents that nominally "control" their children might take issue with this claim. I don't have a particular position on the actual "controlled by Russia" claim.
- PaulDavisThe1st 7mo ago
  Actual evidence of kompromats? Israel? Bribes? We pay them ... If one was to really think about national level bribes then presumably Saudi Arabia would be worthy of mention, given their involvement with the Trump (extended) family.
  - wood_spirit 7mo ago
    [flagged]
Aurornis 7mo ago
> Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. This is a big claim. What other countries? What are their methods and how do they differ?
throw0101c 7mo ago
> Calculation of unemployment […] Define "unemployment". There are six (U-1 to -6) ways of classification in the US: * https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm * https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-... * https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemployment.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemployment.asp And the fact that they're different between the US and other countries, and between other countries and other-other countries is well recognized; "International unemployment rates: how comparable are they?": * https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2000/06/art1full.pdf https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2000/06/art1full.pdf And this isn't something new; from 1957, "International Comparison of Unemployment Rates": * https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/measurement-and-behavior-unemployment/international-comparison-unemployment-rates https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/measurement-and-beha... Just because they're different does not mean that they are "misleading" or 'manipulated'. > The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they can while the 'grabbing is still good.' How is this new? Is greed something discovered recently and especially in the US? * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman_doctrine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman_doctrine * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilded_Age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilded_Age Even stacking government with loyalist appointees is, to a certain extent, returning to 'the old ways' before reforms were enacted to clamp down on the practice: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_service_reform_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_service_reform_in_the_Un...
- tomrod 7mo ago
  Kudos to this point. For those not realizing that unemployment has several definitions - isn't it wonderful that all were published AND all are well-documented? It's these points of reliability and trustworthiness that, complexity aside, we are losing from chaotic administration.
  - indymike 7mo ago
    I worked on a couple of projects with state workforce development agencies and federal agencies. I was always impressed with how much focus there was on the integrity of unemployment numbers, and especially with the emphasis on making sure methodologies ensure that data from the late 1800s can be compared against modern data.
JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up This is a myth. But a self-fulfilling one, given we’re cutting budgets to those agencies because so many Americans believe it.
- gwerbin 7mo ago
  Yes, it's the classic "both sides" myth. It is promulgated in order to manufacture consent for doing the thing that "both sides" are supposedly already doing.
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    > It is promulgated in order to manufacture consent for doing the thing that "both sides" are supposedly already doing Manufacturing consent is horseshit because it gets the direction of causation wrong. Nobody is master planning any of this. Storytellers sell stories. And then politicians sense the vacuum of attention. Fox News and Shadowstats don’t whip their flock up so DOGE could cut budgets. They did it to sell ads. DOGE then cut, mostly randomly. And there was no fury about these cuts so they stuck.
    - genthree 7mo ago
      Right-wing media strategy has been a lot more heavily-planned and intentional than you’re suggesting.
      - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
        > Right-wing media strategy has been a lot more heavily-planned and intentional than you’re suggesting It’s opinionated. That isn’t the same as planned. A lot more of society is motivated by what sells ads right now than anyone is comfortable admitting outside those firms.
    - gwerbin 7mo ago
      The whole point of the manufacturing consent propaganda model is that you don't need some vast conspiracy, you just need industry consolidation and the leaders of those consolidated industries to either be willingly part of the conspiracy, or under pressure/threat. And just look how consolidated the media is in the USA right now, and look at who makes decisions for those companies. > Fox News and Shadowstats don’t whip their flock up so DOGE could cut budgets. They did it to sell ads. There are a million things that could've done to sell ads. Funny how they chose the one thing that just so happens to align with the particular political agenda of the president, who just so happens to be the current figurehead of the entire political movement with which Fox just coincidentally happens to have been tightly aligned for my entire adult life. Must be a coincidence. > And there was no fury about these cuts so they stuck. There was plenty of it, you just didn't see anything about it in the news except as page 10 human interest stories in the liberal-aligned media like NPR and the Boston Globe. Must be another editorial coincidence. There is no way you can earnestly believe that the right-wing media doesn't favorably report on right-wing politicians and their causes. The Manufacturing Consent model is extremely successful among social science models in that it implies clear and testable predictions that have been corroborated again and again and again around the world, pretty much since the dawn of news media. If you don't agree with that assessment, then in my opinion you are ignoring reality or at best ignorant of it.
gigatexal 7mo ago
We’ve never doubted the BLS numbers before until this admin. Think about how that screws things.
asdff 7mo ago
Calculating unemployment seems like it is always going to be a challenge no matter how it is done. For example, the current system in the US does not track unemployed graduates, as they have not been laid off and are not filing for unemployment benefits.
- kasey_junk 7mo ago
  That’s just not true. Most of the six unemployment numbers capture unemployed graduates but m3 the headline number certainly does.
  - asdff 7mo ago
    How is this information collected? When I was looking for work after grad school I didn't report to anyone as such. The school had no idea whether or not I was actively looking. I was denied unemployment. I'm not sure what my info might have looked like on the IRS end if that is what is being abrogated.
    - gruez 7mo ago
      https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.faq.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.faq.htm It also specifically says unemployment figures isn't solely from state unemployment insurance figures.
      - asdff 7mo ago
        I see, so they don't capture that data well as they admit. household survey has a high margin of error. You have to also consider signal to noise ratio of some of these data and whether the survey even has the power to detect the signal. My grad school cohort for example was 15 people for the entire department. That is about as large as they get for PhD in most STEM fields. What are the odds this sort of employment sector is captured well in the household survey data?
        kasey_junk 7mo ago
giardini 7mo ago
mark_l_watson says"The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they can while the 'grabbing is still good.' " (1)This is normal human behavior usually described as "capitalism". It has been well-studied & the literature awaits you, e.g., The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776 by Scottish economist Adam Smith. Go ahead: if you read the entire tome you may be the first man to do so. Perhaps you could write a usefully shortened version or versions of it. mark_l_watson says"Without this immoral looting, our government could do a better job of protecting US citizens as our empire collapses." (2)the behavior isn't immoral, as you will find by merely educating yourself [see (1)]. (3)There was/is no [US]"empire". And certainly none in the sense of the Persian, Mongol, Roman, incan, Spanish, British, French, or even, God forbid, Belgian empire, all of which were true empires.
gcanyon 7mo ago
> for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. That’s a bold claim, do you have sources to back it up? If true, we’d all (I’d, at least) learn an important lesson.
e40 7mo ago
I think the real issue now is that it's 10x worse. The people controlling things are actively and shamelessly making things worse, for their own purposes (so there is less accountability, IMO). The problem is the new, unintended side effects of what they are doing. Because they aren't really that smart, they don't even understand this.
like_any_other 7mo ago
It's worse - important metrics like inflation are distorted by "hedonic adjustment" - i.e. pretending cars are getting cheaper because, even though they're getting more expensive, you get "more car" (ABS, airbags, remote unlock, heated seats (if you pay the subscription), hidden GPS tracking..): https://wolfstreet.com/2019/12/05/what-worries-me-about-hedonic-quality-adjustments-cpi/ https://wolfstreet.com/2019/12/05/what-worries-me-about-hedo...
h0dl0n 7mo ago
[dead]

jmull 7mo ago

"for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up" That's quite a claim. A "whopper" one might say.

smitty1e 7mo ago

Depending upon which party controls the White House, numbers seem to be released to support a predictable narrative, then adjusted later. But that's probably just my lying' eyes.

cyanydeez 7mo ago
Now they just stop releasing. Thats a sizeable change. Even if you have a known bias, we can adjusy for that bias. But if you just stop collecting data? No, these are not your father's red versus blue stats.
- smitty1e 7mo ago
  One is safe to assume partisan shenanigans with every single government program and number until proven otherwise.
  - cyanydeez 7mo ago
    Thats great; that assumption can be used to adjust expectations of results. But you can't gaze into an abyss of "I told the guys to just not collect the data" That's beyond partisan, that's anti-social nonsense. All this bothsides stuff is the difference between a black hole and a mobius strip.
    - smitty1e 7mo ago
      Look, it's all a bunch of rectal sunshine: https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/01/22/the-truth-behind-obamas-job-numbers/ https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/01/22/the-truth-behind-oba...
whateveracct 7mo ago
this admin is different
kenferry 7mo ago
Oh yeah? Like when inflation numbers were very high under Biden? Please give specifics. Otherwise this is just grouchiness.

cyanydeez 7mo ago

Sure, but thetes a sizeable diffetence when skewed data becomes no-data. Context has power. Removing it is thining the herd of power.

pocksuppet 7mo ago
I say removing skewed data forces people to confront reality as it actually is. Instead of "This economy sucks!" "Yeah, but look at the data, it's getting better..." Now we just have "This economy sucks!" "Yeah"
- cyanydeez 7mo ago
  what. People absolutely have no idea what's going on without large, organized data. The point is, the argument isn't "this data is right leaning" vs "this data is left leaning" or whatever your skew-scope is. The argument at present: "We don't need to know to know X" versus "Of course we need to know X". And ther'es clearly a fascist convincing people it's all useless while they ply their grift of choice.

quacked 7mo ago

The frustrating thing about the empire collapse is that it doesn't need to happen. There are still tons of highly energized and ostensibly disciplined and competitive people here. It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands and the aesthetic and moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued, for reasons unclear.

input_sh 7mo ago
I would argue the empire already collapsed, about a year ago when DOGE was tasked with killing every form of soft power that were put in place to present the country in the best possible light across the world. Even with tons of talented and well-intentioned people and everyone fully aligned to re-build everything broken, it'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks.
- SideburnsOfDoom 7mo ago
  > It'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks. There is some truth to this. Other examples of crossing the line and breaking long-term trust would be: To Canada: Statements about Canada last year. To Europe: The idiocy around Greenland earlier this year To the Middle East: Current events.
  - input_sh 7mo ago
    If I may go a step further in history: tearing up the JCPOA (AKA the Iran deal) was like shouting from a megaphone "the US word means nothing now". Even the Palestine situation could've been predicted 6 years before Oct 7th when the US was the very first nation to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, before 5 others followed (none of them "significant"). Things have definitely accelerated in the second term, but it's not like there weren't signs that political leaders definitely noticed were disruptive, even if the wider public weren't as aware at the time.
  - MSFT_Edging 7mo ago
    I do wonder how far certain acts could go in rebuilding the trust. Ie real actual legal liability. Line up anyone who did insider trading, the doge guys, the big mouths in the big house, and put them through a zero tolerance military tribunal. No bullshit kangaroo court where they're let off with a slap on the wrist because they're rich. I mean strip every last one of these motherfuckers of everything they're worth. 180 the kangaroo court. Make a public mockery of them. Posters everywhere. Think of it as a peace offering for the rest of the world. We could even include the war on terror guys in there, all the liars who claimed WMDs could go to the same federal prison. No cushions.

culi 7mo ago

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prepper-bunkers-apocalypse-survival-richest-rushkoff https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected by the coming climate crisis? It only got worse from there. Which was the greater threat: global warming or biological warfare? How long should one plan to be able to survive with no outside help? Should a shelter have its own air supply? What was the likelihood of groundwater contamination? Finally, the CEO of a brokerage house explained that he had nearly completed building his own underground bunker system, and asked: “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?” The event. That was their euphemism for the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, solar storm, unstoppable virus, or malicious computer hack that takes everything down.

iugtmkbdfil834 7mo ago
As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.
- mentalgear 7mo ago
  Exactly: The 0.01% Elite bleeding out the planet and their biggest worries are: 1. How do I keep my doomsday bunker servants in line? 2. Or is a ticket to Mars the better option?
  - abirch 7mo ago
    Mars isn't a good option due to lack of magnetosphere. Personally if you want to propagate life by shooting containers of RNA at different extraterrestrial plants.
    - 7mo ago

jeffbee 7mo ago

Your comment is broadly misleading. In fact, I would say that "shadow stats" guys like you have enabled the destruction of the system by creating the space to cast doubt on the valid methods used by BLS. BLS unemployment metrics have a valid basis and where they differ from Eurostat those differences are minor and with rational basis (such as 16 vs. 15 year old starting age).

iugtmkbdfil834 7mo ago
I don't say stuff like this very often, but are you actually blaming a victim for dealing with the reality of government bsing its own stats instead of the government that allowed this bs to continue? BLS had only one thing going for it and it is mostly that it was used for long enough time that changing methodology would prevent us from being able to compare it prior time ranges. That is it. Otherwise, the methodology itself is seriously flawed ( and likely was from get go, but these days, it is absolutely the worst possible mix of options ). Honestly, your comment made me mildly angry. That said, can you say why you believe parent's comment is misleading?
- jeffbee 7mo ago
  Do you have a substantive complaint to make about the BLS methodology? So far all I see in your remark is shadowstats vibes.
  - iugtmkbdfil834 7mo ago
    I can't tell if you are serious or not. Lets assume for a moment that there was once a benefit to BLS survey methodology ( I would argue otherwise, but w/e ). Is it a good methodology today? So my main argument ( and frankly the only argument that should matter ) is that is a bad fit for the goal of estimating values ( even though we do know its failure modes ). Is that not enough?
    - patmorgan23 7mo ago
      What are the alternatives, and do other countries labor statistics agencies use them?

gruez 7mo ago

>Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries Source? For unemployment, isn't the U-3 definition used for "headline unemployment" consistent to most other countries?

malfist 7mo ago
It is. Just fox news screams about the "true unemployment" U6 number when Democratics are in charge and then go back to reporting on U3 when a Republican is in office. That said, measurement is not as easy today with so many gig workers. Government data is often driven by proxies because its too hard to measure directly and the number of people getting an llc for their uber/doordash/lyft/etc job is throwing off our math. Government currently uses number of new businesses as a proxy since generally people starting businesses are hiring people.
- kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 7mo ago
  > Just fox news screams about the "true unemployment" U6 number when Democratics are in charge and then go back to reporting on U3 when a Republican is in office. To be fair, CNN and MSNBC do the same in reverse.
  - rkuykendall-com 7mo ago
    CNN and MSNBC are not propaganda networks in the way that Fox is.
    - kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 7mo ago
      Or, you've bought into the propaganda and you have lost your objectivity.

varispeed 7mo ago

[flagged]

tehjoker 7mo ago
We are tightly integrated with Israel, joined at the hip, but you realize we are at war with Russia right? If we were controlled by Russia, we would not be at war with them.
- pocksuppet 7mo ago
  Are you? You're about to remove sanctions on them, not because they agreed to peace, because you destroyed your own other options (the Persian Gulf).
  - sieabahlpark 7mo ago
    [dead]
- whattheheckheck 7mo ago
  You would think...
- PaulDavisThe1st 7mo ago
  Many parents that nominally "control" their children might take issue with this claim. I don't have a particular position on the actual "controlled by Russia" claim.
PaulDavisThe1st 7mo ago
Actual evidence of kompromats? Israel? Bribes? We pay them ... If one was to really think about national level bribes then presumably Saudi Arabia would be worthy of mention, given their involvement with the Trump (extended) family.
- wood_spirit 7mo ago
  [flagged]

Aurornis 7mo ago

> Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. This is a big claim. What other countries? What are their methods and how do they differ?

throw0101c 7mo ago

> Calculation of unemployment […] Define "unemployment". There are six (U-1 to -6) ways of classification in the US: * https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm * https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-... * https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemployment.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemployment.asp And the fact that they're different between the US and other countries, and between other countries and other-other countries is well recognized; "International unemployment rates: how comparable are they?": * https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2000/06/art1full.pdf https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2000/06/art1full.pdf And this isn't something new; from 1957, "International Comparison of Unemployment Rates": * https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/measurement-and-behavior-unemployment/international-comparison-unemployment-rates https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/measurement-and-beha... Just because they're different does not mean that they are "misleading" or 'manipulated'. > The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they can while the 'grabbing is still good.' How is this new? Is greed something discovered recently and especially in the US? * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman_doctrine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman_doctrine * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilded_Age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilded_Age Even stacking government with loyalist appointees is, to a certain extent, returning to 'the old ways' before reforms were enacted to clamp down on the practice: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_service_reform_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_service_reform_in_the_Un...

tomrod 7mo ago
Kudos to this point. For those not realizing that unemployment has several definitions - isn't it wonderful that all were published AND all are well-documented? It's these points of reliability and trustworthiness that, complexity aside, we are losing from chaotic administration.
- indymike 7mo ago
  I worked on a couple of projects with state workforce development agencies and federal agencies. I was always impressed with how much focus there was on the integrity of unemployment numbers, and especially with the emphasis on making sure methodologies ensure that data from the late 1800s can be compared against modern data.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago

> for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up This is a myth. But a self-fulfilling one, given we’re cutting budgets to those agencies because so many Americans believe it.

gwerbin 7mo ago
Yes, it's the classic "both sides" myth. It is promulgated in order to manufacture consent for doing the thing that "both sides" are supposedly already doing.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > It is promulgated in order to manufacture consent for doing the thing that "both sides" are supposedly already doing Manufacturing consent is horseshit because it gets the direction of causation wrong. Nobody is master planning any of this. Storytellers sell stories. And then politicians sense the vacuum of attention. Fox News and Shadowstats don’t whip their flock up so DOGE could cut budgets. They did it to sell ads. DOGE then cut, mostly randomly. And there was no fury about these cuts so they stuck.
  - genthree 7mo ago
    Right-wing media strategy has been a lot more heavily-planned and intentional than you’re suggesting.
    - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
      > Right-wing media strategy has been a lot more heavily-planned and intentional than you’re suggesting It’s opinionated. That isn’t the same as planned. A lot more of society is motivated by what sells ads right now than anyone is comfortable admitting outside those firms.
  - gwerbin 7mo ago
    The whole point of the manufacturing consent propaganda model is that you don't need some vast conspiracy, you just need industry consolidation and the leaders of those consolidated industries to either be willingly part of the conspiracy, or under pressure/threat. And just look how consolidated the media is in the USA right now, and look at who makes decisions for those companies. > Fox News and Shadowstats don’t whip their flock up so DOGE could cut budgets. They did it to sell ads. There are a million things that could've done to sell ads. Funny how they chose the one thing that just so happens to align with the particular political agenda of the president, who just so happens to be the current figurehead of the entire political movement with which Fox just coincidentally happens to have been tightly aligned for my entire adult life. Must be a coincidence. > And there was no fury about these cuts so they stuck. There was plenty of it, you just didn't see anything about it in the news except as page 10 human interest stories in the liberal-aligned media like NPR and the Boston Globe. Must be another editorial coincidence. There is no way you can earnestly believe that the right-wing media doesn't favorably report on right-wing politicians and their causes. The Manufacturing Consent model is extremely successful among social science models in that it implies clear and testable predictions that have been corroborated again and again and again around the world, pretty much since the dawn of news media. If you don't agree with that assessment, then in my opinion you are ignoring reality or at best ignorant of it.

gigatexal 7mo ago

We’ve never doubted the BLS numbers before until this admin. Think about how that screws things.

asdff 7mo ago

Calculating unemployment seems like it is always going to be a challenge no matter how it is done. For example, the current system in the US does not track unemployed graduates, as they have not been laid off and are not filing for unemployment benefits.

kasey_junk 7mo ago
That’s just not true. Most of the six unemployment numbers capture unemployed graduates but m3 the headline number certainly does.
- asdff 7mo ago
  How is this information collected? When I was looking for work after grad school I didn't report to anyone as such. The school had no idea whether or not I was actively looking. I was denied unemployment. I'm not sure what my info might have looked like on the IRS end if that is what is being abrogated.
  - gruez 7mo ago
    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.faq.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.faq.htm It also specifically says unemployment figures isn't solely from state unemployment insurance figures.
    - asdff 7mo ago
      I see, so they don't capture that data well as they admit. household survey has a high margin of error. You have to also consider signal to noise ratio of some of these data and whether the survey even has the power to detect the signal. My grad school cohort for example was 15 people for the entire department. That is about as large as they get for PhD in most STEM fields. What are the odds this sort of employment sector is captured well in the household survey data?
      - kasey_junk 7mo ago

giardini 7mo ago

mark_l_watson says"The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they can while the 'grabbing is still good.' " (1)This is normal human behavior usually described as "capitalism". It has been well-studied & the literature awaits you, e.g., The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776 by Scottish economist Adam Smith. Go ahead: if you read the entire tome you may be the first man to do so. Perhaps you could write a usefully shortened version or versions of it. mark_l_watson says"Without this immoral looting, our government could do a better job of protecting US citizens as our empire collapses." (2)the behavior isn't immoral, as you will find by merely educating yourself [see (1)]. (3)There was/is no [US]"empire". And certainly none in the sense of the Persian, Mongol, Roman, incan, Spanish, British, French, or even, God forbid, Belgian empire, all of which were true empires.

gcanyon 7mo ago

> for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. That’s a bold claim, do you have sources to back it up? If true, we’d all (I’d, at least) learn an important lesson.

e40 7mo ago

I think the real issue now is that it's 10x worse. The people controlling things are actively and shamelessly making things worse, for their own purposes (so there is less accountability, IMO). The problem is the new, unintended side effects of what they are doing. Because they aren't really that smart, they don't even understand this.

like_any_other 7mo ago

It's worse - important metrics like inflation are distorted by "hedonic adjustment" - i.e. pretending cars are getting cheaper because, even though they're getting more expensive, you get "more car" (ABS, airbags, remote unlock, heated seats (if you pay the subscription), hidden GPS tracking..): https://wolfstreet.com/2019/12/05/what-worries-me-about-hedonic-quality-adjustments-cpi/ https://wolfstreet.com/2019/12/05/what-worries-me-about-hedo...

h0dl0n 7mo ago

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