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What I worry about is the shot in the arm Russian finances are about to get due to oil revenue at a point they seemed to weaken strategically. Not to mention pr

What I worry about is the shot in the arm Russian finances are about to get due to oil revenue at a point they seemed to weaken strategically. Not to mention pressure to weaken oil sanctions.

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
The cover of war is a great use for targeting fossil fuel infrastructure Russia relies on for exports. Sufficiently inhibiting their ability to export will force them to shut in wells (as we're seeing with major Middle Eastern oil exporters as shore storage reaches capacity), which will potentially take years to restart.
- thisislife2 7mo ago
  Come again - what Russian fuel infrastructure is being targeted, with the Iranian war as a cover?
  - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
    Russian shadow fleet vessels. https://fortune.com/2026/03/11/oil-situation-strait-hormuz-shadow-fleet-illegal-iran/ https://fortune.com/2026/03/11/oil-situation-strait-hormuz-s...
dmix 7mo ago
Russia's oil revenue was down but it was far from being game changing even with stricter sanctions. The oil sector hit has always been more of a big incentive to end the war then something than will impact it militarily on the ground.
- demosito666 7mo ago
  Really? Cost of extraction in Russia is about $30/barrel, sanctions introduced discount of about $20/barrel in 2025 which means 70% profit drop at market price of $60. Sounds pretty game changing to me.
  - wood_spirit 7mo ago
    But would it have got them to stop the war? Seems unlikely.
    - gzread 7mo ago
      Probably not but it changes the calculus of whether Ukraine or Russia will win.
      - throwaway27448 7mo ago
        I mean no matter how the war ends ukraine has lost
        JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
        > no matter how the war ends ukraine has lost This is nonsense. Lviv is by all accounts a thriving city. And Ukraine's defence-industrial base is now among Europe's finest.
        throwaway27448 7mo ago
        Lviv, the Polish city? Come on let's be real.
        JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
        > Lviv, the Polish city? Come on let's be real No, Lviv the Molotov city. Like, yes, if you've already carved up Ukraine in your head, it's obviously losing. By that metric China has been losing to the Mongolians its whole history.
        throwaway27448 7mo ago
        Look, ukraine's economy is destroyed, the men are either dead, disabled, or have fled, and the ones who haven't are being kidnapped off the street to be pressed into service, the grid has been set back by decades, they're deep deep in debt, and everyone knows they aren't getting the mineral-rich east back. It's beginning to look doubtful if they can even keep their black sea port. They have under half the population now than they did when the soviet republic collapsed (granted, mostly due to circumstances unrelated to the war—notably, outmigration.) So perhaps I was being a bit of a dick by calling Lviv polish, but it will probably take ukraine decades, maybe a century or more, to recover from this devastation, even if against all odds they manage to enforce their absurd demands that russia withdraw. It does matter to a nation to keep its historic lands, and ukraine has already lost about half of all traditionally ukrainian land + crimea. Far western ukraine, including Lviv, has only been considered "ukraine" for a little over a hundred years.
amelius 7mo ago
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/trump-iran-war-russia-putin-analysis https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/trump-iran-war-r...
- reactordev 7mo ago
  I was just going to post this. You don’t have to wait long to know their thoughts…
burkaman 7mo ago
> Not to mention pressure to weaken oil sanctions. The Trump administration instantly folded under that pressure and has already removed some sanctions: https://xcancel.com/SecScottBessent/status/2029714253725262232 https://xcancel.com/SecScottBessent/status/20297142537252622...
partiallypro 7mo ago
Maybe a short financial shot in the arm, but destroying their ability to get Shahed drones is substantial.
- wood_spirit 7mo ago
  Russia has been mass producing its own copies or the drones - the Russian version is called Geran 2 - for several years now. They use a lot of western and sanctioned components and they assemble them in big factories eg Kupol plant in the Russian city of Izhevsk
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- m4rtink 7mo ago
  AFAIK by this point they are now building them all themselves in the big Yelabuga factory.
GJim 7mo ago
[flagged]
- ModernMech 7mo ago
  If Putin himself were POTUS, he couldn’t have done a better job than Trump did for Russia.
- 0xy 7mo ago
  [flagged]
  - ukblewis 7mo ago
    Not sure how this got flagged. It is clearly pertinent and accurate… I’m starting to doubt that this platform really enables objective discussion
    - throwaway290 7mo ago
      the comment has good points but then ruins everything saying it was just propaganda that Trump was a Russian asset. you can say "asset" was exaggeration or whatever, but Trump to Putin was so obviously undeservedly friendly that it already begs the question, plus there's enough suspicious stuff including multiple ex KGB agents who are sure he was recruited/honeytrapped at some point. ignoring it as just democrat propaganda is republican propaganda. only one of those agents is even in US
      - 0xy 7mo ago
        Is your claim that the Steele dossier was not DNC propaganda, or that there is other evidence he's a Russian asset? The Steele dossier has been discredited repeatedly.
        throwaway290 7mo ago
        I don't know who is Steele and never heard of the dossier, so the other thing
thisislife2 7mo ago
From the American perspective it's a plus - If Russia is getting richer (when it desperately needs the cash) it has an incentive to not get involved in the Iran war (at least in the short-term). (Remember that just before the Iran invasion, US and some of its European allies were suddenly capturing Russian "shadow fleet" oil tankers and increasing pressure on India to cut down Russian oil, and its oil revenues dropped drastically). If Iran can be conquered, Americans gets richer, gain more influence in the middle-east and the Europe (to whom they'll sell the gas) while the Russians will lose much of their influence in the middle-east. As for Ukraine, nobody in the west really cares for it - that proxy war has given all the dividends it can for the west (EU has cut off all economic ties with Russia, EU is now dependent again on the US for its energy thus making the US richer, EU's next generation have now been brainwashed to hate the Russians again, Finland and Sweden have been successfully pressurised to give up neutrality and join NATO, Finland and Sweden joining NATO means the Arctic Council is now dominated by NATO - Arctic is where the west will next try to cut off Russian influence, Ukraine - which had a large territory and the one of the largest military in Europe - has been cut down in size and is now totally economically and military dependent on the west in effect a vassal state) and the Ukraine war is a stalemate now, where Russians will make slow gains as their army grinds down and keeps losing soldiers - and that's a plus too. As Russia becomes weaker, another proxy war or even a direct attack against it can be waged later in the future (maybe after Putin?). American deep state always plans long term - Death by a 1000 cuts ...
- objectivetruth 7mo ago
  [dead]
- readthenotes1 7mo ago
  EU has cut off economic ties? Sure, if 2027 is in the past and you believe they will stay the course https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_2860 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_...
throwaway27448 7mo ago
> at a point they seemed to weaken strategically They can hold out for many years. Oil prices going up just means a slightly gentler market for russians.
- euroderf 7mo ago
  > They can hold out for many years. They are running down cash, gold, and cannon fodder.
BurningFrog 7mo ago
Alternative scenario: Iran should be militarily defeated in a few weeks, so that's a brief shot in the arm. If Iran gets a half decent government and sanctions on Iran are lifted, that would lower oil prices and hit the Russian economy.
- roryirvine 7mo ago
  By way of comparison, Iraq's oil production didn't return to the pre-war level until mid 2012. It's probably reasonable to expect several years of disruption to Iranian oil even if sanctions were to be completely lifted in the very near term.
  - BurningFrog 7mo ago
    Sure, but blocking Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi, Qatar etc from exporting through Hormuz has a much bigger effect on global oil prices, and that can be resumed immediately if/when the war stops.

What I worry about is the shot in the arm Russian finances are about to get due to oil revenue at a point they seemed to weaken strategically. Not to mention pressure to weaken oil sanctions.

toomuchtodo 7mo ago

The cover of war is a great use for targeting fossil fuel infrastructure Russia relies on for exports. Sufficiently inhibiting their ability to export will force them to shut in wells (as we're seeing with major Middle Eastern oil exporters as shore storage reaches capacity), which will potentially take years to restart.

thisislife2 7mo ago
Come again - what Russian fuel infrastructure is being targeted, with the Iranian war as a cover?
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  Russian shadow fleet vessels. https://fortune.com/2026/03/11/oil-situation-strait-hormuz-shadow-fleet-illegal-iran/ https://fortune.com/2026/03/11/oil-situation-strait-hormuz-s...

dmix 7mo ago

Russia's oil revenue was down but it was far from being game changing even with stricter sanctions. The oil sector hit has always been more of a big incentive to end the war then something than will impact it militarily on the ground.

demosito666 7mo ago
Really? Cost of extraction in Russia is about $30/barrel, sanctions introduced discount of about $20/barrel in 2025 which means 70% profit drop at market price of $60. Sounds pretty game changing to me.
- wood_spirit 7mo ago
  But would it have got them to stop the war? Seems unlikely.
  - gzread 7mo ago
    Probably not but it changes the calculus of whether Ukraine or Russia will win.
    - throwaway27448 7mo ago
      I mean no matter how the war ends ukraine has lost
      - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
        > no matter how the war ends ukraine has lost This is nonsense. Lviv is by all accounts a thriving city. And Ukraine's defence-industrial base is now among Europe's finest.
        throwaway27448 7mo ago
        Lviv, the Polish city? Come on let's be real.
        JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
        > Lviv, the Polish city? Come on let's be real No, Lviv the Molotov city. Like, yes, if you've already carved up Ukraine in your head, it's obviously losing. By that metric China has been losing to the Mongolians its whole history.
        throwaway27448 7mo ago
        Look, ukraine's economy is destroyed, the men are either dead, disabled, or have fled, and the ones who haven't are being kidnapped off the street to be pressed into service, the grid has been set back by decades, they're deep deep in debt, and everyone knows they aren't getting the mineral-rich east back. It's beginning to look doubtful if they can even keep their black sea port. They have under half the population now than they did when the soviet republic collapsed (granted, mostly due to circumstances unrelated to the war—notably, outmigration.) So perhaps I was being a bit of a dick by calling Lviv polish, but it will probably take ukraine decades, maybe a century or more, to recover from this devastation, even if against all odds they manage to enforce their absurd demands that russia withdraw. It does matter to a nation to keep its historic lands, and ukraine has already lost about half of all traditionally ukrainian land + crimea. Far western ukraine, including Lviv, has only been considered "ukraine" for a little over a hundred years.

amelius 7mo ago

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/trump-iran-war-russia-putin-analysis https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/trump-iran-war-r...

reactordev 7mo ago
I was just going to post this. You don’t have to wait long to know their thoughts…

burkaman 7mo ago

> Not to mention pressure to weaken oil sanctions. The Trump administration instantly folded under that pressure and has already removed some sanctions: https://xcancel.com/SecScottBessent/status/2029714253725262232 https://xcancel.com/SecScottBessent/status/20297142537252622...

partiallypro 7mo ago

Maybe a short financial shot in the arm, but destroying their ability to get Shahed drones is substantial.

wood_spirit 7mo ago
Russia has been mass producing its own copies or the drones - the Russian version is called Geran 2 - for several years now. They use a lot of western and sanctioned components and they assemble them in big factories eg Kupol plant in the Russian city of Izhevsk
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
m4rtink 7mo ago
AFAIK by this point they are now building them all themselves in the big Yelabuga factory.

GJim 7mo ago

[flagged]

ModernMech 7mo ago
If Putin himself were POTUS, he couldn’t have done a better job than Trump did for Russia.
0xy 7mo ago
[flagged]
- ukblewis 7mo ago
  Not sure how this got flagged. It is clearly pertinent and accurate… I’m starting to doubt that this platform really enables objective discussion
  - throwaway290 7mo ago
    the comment has good points but then ruins everything saying it was just propaganda that Trump was a Russian asset. you can say "asset" was exaggeration or whatever, but Trump to Putin was so obviously undeservedly friendly that it already begs the question, plus there's enough suspicious stuff including multiple ex KGB agents who are sure he was recruited/honeytrapped at some point. ignoring it as just democrat propaganda is republican propaganda. only one of those agents is even in US
    - 0xy 7mo ago
      Is your claim that the Steele dossier was not DNC propaganda, or that there is other evidence he's a Russian asset? The Steele dossier has been discredited repeatedly.
      - throwaway290 7mo ago
        I don't know who is Steele and never heard of the dossier, so the other thing

thisislife2 7mo ago

From the American perspective it's a plus - If Russia is getting richer (when it desperately needs the cash) it has an incentive to not get involved in the Iran war (at least in the short-term). (Remember that just before the Iran invasion, US and some of its European allies were suddenly capturing Russian "shadow fleet" oil tankers and increasing pressure on India to cut down Russian oil, and its oil revenues dropped drastically). If Iran can be conquered, Americans gets richer, gain more influence in the middle-east and the Europe (to whom they'll sell the gas) while the Russians will lose much of their influence in the middle-east. As for Ukraine, nobody in the west really cares for it - that proxy war has given all the dividends it can for the west (EU has cut off all economic ties with Russia, EU is now dependent again on the US for its energy thus making the US richer, EU's next generation have now been brainwashed to hate the Russians again, Finland and Sweden have been successfully pressurised to give up neutrality and join NATO, Finland and Sweden joining NATO means the Arctic Council is now dominated by NATO - Arctic is where the west will next try to cut off Russian influence, Ukraine - which had a large territory and the one of the largest military in Europe - has been cut down in size and is now totally economically and military dependent on the west in effect a vassal state) and the Ukraine war is a stalemate now, where Russians will make slow gains as their army grinds down and keeps losing soldiers - and that's a plus too. As Russia becomes weaker, another proxy war or even a direct attack against it can be waged later in the future (maybe after Putin?). American deep state always plans long term - Death by a 1000 cuts ...

objectivetruth 7mo ago
[dead]
readthenotes1 7mo ago
EU has cut off economic ties? Sure, if 2027 is in the past and you believe they will stay the course https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_2860 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_...

throwaway27448 7mo ago

> at a point they seemed to weaken strategically They can hold out for many years. Oil prices going up just means a slightly gentler market for russians.

euroderf 7mo ago
> They can hold out for many years. They are running down cash, gold, and cannon fodder.

BurningFrog 7mo ago

Alternative scenario: Iran should be militarily defeated in a few weeks, so that's a brief shot in the arm. If Iran gets a half decent government and sanctions on Iran are lifted, that would lower oil prices and hit the Russian economy.

roryirvine 7mo ago
By way of comparison, Iraq's oil production didn't return to the pre-war level until mid 2012. It's probably reasonable to expect several years of disruption to Iranian oil even if sanctions were to be completely lifted in the very near term.
- BurningFrog 7mo ago
  Sure, but blocking Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi, Qatar etc from exporting through Hormuz has a much bigger effect on global oil prices, and that can be resumed immediately if/when the war stops.