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As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them

• mdavid626 8mo ago
  [flagged]
• vondur 8mo ago
  That is probably true, but if they are selling at a loss, it can only go on for so long.
  • mdavid626 8mo ago
    Ukraine might have less time than Russia does. Russia only has to survive 1 day more.
    • dijit 8mo ago
      I agree with your point overall but realistically speaking, its not like the death of Ukraine will fix Russias economy, even if it did: not in a single day. You can exhaust yourself completely and be dead on your feet. Doomed, is the expression.
      • nradov 8mo ago
        There is a strain of thought in Russian political circles that they'll be doomed anyway due to lack of defensible borders if they fail to capture Ukraine. This could explain some of their actions that otherwise seem irrational and counterproductive.
        • gzread 8mo ago
          It doesn't seem to make any sense: nobody was invading Russia until Russia decided part of Ukraine was Russia (and then Ukraine invaded it), and why would Ukraine be a more defensible border than the actual border? Ukraine borders NATO, after all.
          • nradov 8mo ago
            From the Russian perspective it actually does make a bit of sense, in a twisted sort of way. They were invaded from the west before, most recently by Hitler and before that by Napoleon. There are no good natural defenses to protect Moscow and so they seek to establish defense in depth with additional buffer territory. (I write this not to justify recent Russian acts of aggression but to explain some of their internal strategic thinking.)
    • squidbeak 8mo ago
      Why do you imagine Ukraine's desire for sovereignty would be exhausted before Russia's stomach for economic hardship? Do you really think the Russia public has the stamina even for the 4 more years it will take them to capture the rest of Donbas?
      • mdavid626 8mo ago
        Russia doesn’t have any other choice, than to continue. Same applies for the West.
        • squidbeak 8mo ago
          Russia could end the war today if it wanted to.
          • mdavid626 8mo ago
            Same for the West. If they do, they loose. That sets their position in the world. Who’d fear them? They can’t even win over a country which is much smaller and weaker than they are.
            • squidbeak 8mo ago
              How can the West end the war today?
              • gzread 8mo ago
                It could end the war quickly by nuking Ukraine, but I don't think that was the meaning behind the GP.
            • nradov 8mo ago
              Huh? Which "West" are you referring to? No NATO member state has invaded any Russian sovereign territory.
            • AnimalMuppet 8mo ago
    • kergonath 8mo ago
      Ukraine is also very hard to completely destroy, either militarily or economically. And Ukraine is in an existential struggle, I don’t see the Ukrainians caving.
      • drysine 8mo ago
        >And Ukraine is in an existential struggle, I don’t see the Ukrainians caving. Only the current regime is in existential struggle. This why it closed the borders[0] and kidnaps men on the streets[1] to send to the front line. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_conscription_crisis#Border_crossings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_conscription_crisis#... [1] https://busification.org/ https://busification.org/
    • neocron 8mo ago
      But then what, become a part of China? I don't think Russia could defend themselves from an attack of a lesser nation right now, and I truly wish one of them would take opportunity
      • wiseowise 8mo ago
        They still have nukes.
      • ponector 8mo ago
        China doesn't need to attach Russia. Just close the borders for all trade and Russia will implode within a year.
        • nradov 8mo ago
          China doesn't want Russia to implode. That would only create problems for no real gain. But they'll take advantage of Russia's weakness to get cheap raw materials and perhaps some territorial concessions.
        • don_esteban 8mo ago
          Why would China do that? They know they are next on the chopping block. They need Russia to guard their back, the last thing they need is a USA-friendly regime in Russia. You are all talking about 'just a bit longer and Russia will implode'. Look at the state of Ukraine, who is going to implode sooner, Russia or Ukraine? Heck, look at the state of Europe and USA! USA is a political nutcase, and Europe has deep divisions and is overflowing with incompetence and impotence. Plus enormous debts, both in USA and in Europe.
    • fatbird 8mo ago
      Every day that passes, Ukraine gets stronger: more domestic defense production of what's currently the cutting edge of warfare; deeper financial integration and relationships with Europe; more aid lined up; European powers taking more responsibility for supporting Ukraine and seeing it win, not just survive. They have the largest and most competent army in Europe that's fought Russia to a standstill. Every day that passes, Russia gets weaker: more oil sold in crude form only, since they don't have refining capacity to export gasoline; foreign currency reserves shrinking, since China is their main customer; another 35k casualties every month, with mounting costs for enlistment bonuses and death benefits; outer provinces stripped of men of fighting age, North Korea unwilling to send more soldiers, African recruits drying up; inflation raging, industries shutting down, and all economic indicators heading south. It's terrible that Ukraine is trapped in this slugfest, but at this point, time favours Ukraine.
      • don_esteban 8mo ago
        Can I have the good stuff you are smoking? Ukraine domestic defense production has the slight problem of being continuously bombed, lacking manpower, reliable (or any!) electricity. Are you sure it is growing? Perhaps explosively... Their largest and most competent army is mostly dead and maimed, they rely on catching unwilling men on the streets and herding them to the front. You believe 35k Russian casualties each month, and at the same time you believe Ukrainian official figures of 55k casualties overall, right? European powers taking responsibility for supporting Ukraine by continuously arguing where/how should they get emergency funds to 'lend' to Ukraine, so its finances do not collapse within the next 2 month. Man, how can you believe this nonsense? Time does not favour Ukraine. It does not favour Russia (or Europe) either, it favours mostly China.
        • fatbird 8mo ago
          It produces its own Neptune cruise missiles (100+), and developed the Flamingo cruise missile. It has its own self-propelled howitzer, and has built more than 200 to date. It rebuilt its bullet manufacturing, replacing the loss of its luhansk facility. They've massively expanded domestic production of 155mm shells. Whether or not it's under constant bombardment, Ukraine is now supplying 50% of its consumable supplies; in 2022, it was under 5%. Ukraine actually exports some weapons and drone tech to finance other purchases. Its manpower crisis has been continually overstated by Russian propaganda. At the moment, they have 800k+ in their army. They rejected a bill recently to lower the conscription age to 25 from 27. They have an untapped pool of manpower aged 18-27 that they're avoiding if possible (as has been possible so far). Whether or not Europeans are arguing a lot, they're still providing massive material and financial aid to Ukraine, which still has a functioning economy and social welfare system. Their gov't pensions go out on time and in full. They're not experiencing hyperinflation. There's a reason that Ukrainians as a population aren't willing to accept the kind of crap settlements Trump is pushing. > Man, how can you believe this nonsense? You're the one spouting Russian disinformation, especially after looking at your other comments. If you're not getting paid for this, you should be.
• chowells 8mo ago
  As someone with no firsthand knowledge at all, I am inclined to believe your position is correct. But I also think the Economist is making an important point: Russia's continued prosecution of this war will shred their internal economy with consequences lasting for decades or centuries. What people often underestimate is just how much damage an economy can suffer before breaking down entirely. But Putin doesn't care about that, so the war will continue until something changes militarily.
  • phicoh 8mo ago
    The EU is rich enough to support Ukraine for a very long time. During that time it is likely that Ukraine develops better and better weapons. This requires Russian army to improve as well. It's not clear how the Russian army will improve when the economy declines.
    • crossbody 8mo ago
      The EU is rich enough but will they stay "willing enough"? Unfortunately, many EU parties that are gaining popularity are also against spending money on Ukraine
    • tchalla 8mo ago
      EU may be “rich enough” to support Ukraine forever, doesn’t mean it will or should do it.
      • phicoh 8mo ago
        The EU, well NATO has the problem what Russia will do when it is no longer at war with Ukraine. There is also the question what the US would if Russia attacks a NATO country. So European NATO countries basically need to keep supporting Ukraine while they try to becomes militarily independent of the US.
        • unsnap_biceps 8mo ago
          EU just needs to support Ukraine until Russia has dug themselves into a hole that will take generations to recover from. Their might be a point where the war hasn't ended but Russia is no longer seen as a threat by the EU.
• ericmay 8mo ago
  > They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Yes and no. There's a minimum price they need to sell it, and somewhere in between they may not actually make enough between the minimum and sale price to actually fund their military. Nevermind the awesome job you guys are doing blowing up refineries and other industrial facilities. It'll be good when Europe stops importing Russian gas and steps up their seizure of sanctioned ships too. Sanctions can and will work against Russia. Part of the strain they face today is due to these sanctions, it just takes awhile and in the meantime, unfortunately, there are people dying.
  • k_bx 8mo ago
    Thank you sir, I wish your words will eventually come true
  • nradov 8mo ago
    I favor harsher sanctions against Russia but let's not be too optimistic. It doesn't take much funding to recruit a poor, desperate guy from the outer provinces, hand him a surplus rifle, and send him into a human wave attack. In a perverse sort of way, killing off those guys might actually be reducing Russian government expenses.
    • neocron 8mo ago
      The bad thing is, they always did this and it worked. The good thing is, those russians stopped growing back with birthrates being one of the lowest in the world. We might just see a world without any russians in a few decades. What a dream
      • esseph 8mo ago
        What the fuck did I just read
        • ponector 8mo ago
          "I have a dream" but version for Eastern Europe.
• zh3 8mo ago
  As a strong supporter of Ukraine, I would say ultimately wars are won or lost by economic forces (the side that can't afford it any more loses). That's how the USSR lost the Cold War, and all I can hope is that all of Europe really has your back in this one.
  • shevy-java 8mo ago
    But that is historically not quite true. World War 2 was not won due to the economy. And while it is true that the USSR "lost" the Cold War, they actually spent too much and entered a recurring debt from which they could no longer get out. There was no direct war here, which is different to e. g. world war 2 (at the least USA versus Germany). USSR and USA only fought some proxy wars.
    • nradov 8mo ago
      World War 2 was won due to the economy. Only the Allied side had the economic strength to replace all of their material war losses and more. In some categories of munitions the USA out produced Japan by a factor of >1000. US Navy gunners could afford to fill the sky with steel because they had unlimited supplies. The enemy had to count every shot.
    • wiseowise 8mo ago
      > World War 2 was not won due to the economy. It was literally won due to the economy. The moment Germans failed to knock out Soviets and Japanese pulled Americans into the fight their days were numbered due to insane industrial base of the both countries. Soviet meat waves, industry + lend lease won Europe and US finished Japanese.
      • torginus 8mo ago
        > meat waves sigh
        • deleted 8mo ago
          [deleted]
• kergonath 8mo ago
  It’s very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s military force, particularly a country as huge as Russia, which has also a sizeable population. Ukraine cannot do it on its own and I see no appetite from anybody else to do it, so I think it is unlikely to happen. Of course, it is also very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s economic power. Unfortunately, in Russia’s case, they have the raw materials and a population they can basically enslave. Hitting hard at refineries is a good strategy, it’s a weak point in the whole structure. Hopefully it’ll be enough. Honestly, I don’t see an easy or clean way out of this. One possibility is that they’ll grind themselves badly enough to become completely irrelevant. Unfortunately that means a good chunk of Ukraine gets ground down along the way. One can hope for a coup, but then whatever comes after might well be worse. Then, hopefully Ukraine can rebuild as a free nation.
  • ajross 8mo ago
    That's misunderstanding the model of actors. "Russia" isn't "Putin". "Countries" act in the best interests of their power structure, not their leaders. Basically: the way this ends is when the collective will of the power centers (generally the armed forces, though not always) decide that they'll be wealthier and happier with Putin gone than by following more orders. And obviously that's an unstable/unpredictable equilibrium, because groups don't decide collectively like that and exactly how a coup works is never known until it does. But it's the way literally every other government of every other failed state has fallen[1], and there's no reason to think this one will fare any differently. [1] Well, there's "unexpected death of the leader" thing too.
    • kergonath 8mo ago
      > That's misunderstanding the model of actors. "Russia" isn't "Putin". "Countries" act in the best interests of their power structure, not their leaders. No, I am not misunderstanding. For all intents and purposes, at the moment Putin’s will is Russia’s will. And it looks like he knows his weaknesses within the country and is willing to let marginal populations bear the weight of his ambitions while keeping his power base comfortable enough. Of course he might end up like Stalin, at which point who knows? But it might not be much better for Ukraine, and in the meantime Putin keeps giving the orders. > Basically: the way this ends is when the collective will of the power centers (generally the armed forces, though not always) decide that they'll be wealthier and happier with Putin gone than by following more orders. He can get most soldiers rich enough for this to drag on for quite a long time. They probably would be happier elsewhere, but they don’t have a say. The generals is another problem, but so far Putin is quite effective at finding loyal ones.
• simonh 8mo ago
  The article is not as unrealistic as that, the author does point out that Putin is not just looking at the state of Russia, he’s also looking at the relative state of Ukraine and its support from the West. The death zone isn’t the point at which they die, it’s the point at which they are consuming their own long term strength and capacity to recover in order to sustain their effort . To our utter shame, we have never actually committed to Ukrainian victory or Russian defeat, but merely to tenuous Ukrainian survival. I firmly believe this war would already be over, or effectively so, if Ukraine’s allies had spent what we have up till now in the first 2 years. Even from a cynical financial point of view it would have been the better policy.
  • jltsiren 8mo ago
    I don't think doubling the support would have been nearly enough to ensure Ukrainian victory. The fundamental issue is that Russia has not fully committed to winning the war either. While losing the war would be an existential threat to the Putin regime, not winning it is not. As long as the war drags on, there are more effective uses for Russian resources to ensure the stability of the regime. But if the war becomes an existential threat, Russia could mobilize its entire economy. A regime change in Russia is the only way Ukraine could win the war. Maybe by a coup or by military force. Or maybe by an arrangement, where the current regime can retire comfortably in a third country without having to answer for its crimes.
    • lovegrenoble 8mo ago
      [flagged]
• sourcegrift 8mo ago
  Thank you for your esteemed presence. I've got an unsatisfied hankering for kneeling since george Floyd died, but now that you're here, take that kneel.
  • k_bx 8mo ago
    Thank you sir, appreciate the support!
• rich_sasha 8mo ago
  Some interesting entangled thoughts. As per Clausevitz, wars end either when you kill every last soldier or the ones who are still alive decide not to fight. I can't see the former happening. So it's about ratcheting the pain of continuing to something unbearable. To the level where Russia can't make enough cash selling resources to make more tanks and bombs and also feed people. The issue is of course that Russians seem incredibly resilient against the latter. They seem happy when Russia wins another 5m^2 of territory even if materially they are massively affected. But even then if Russia can no longer recruit "marginal" people and the alternative to peace is even larger losses, people might reassess. The higher the economic cost in the meantime, the sooner this moment comes.
  • red-iron-pine 8mo ago
    they are not happy, they are distracted and vaguely know it's not going well. the "russian firehose" approach and vryanyo (institutional lying) means they're bombarded with info but also know most of it is BS, but not necessarily how or why. they know it's not going well but at this point much of the economy is on war-footing and if they're not drafted they're probably getting paid okay. STFU and keep your head down and you won't get drafted.
  • benterix 8mo ago
    > They seem happy when Russia wins another 5m^2 But who? People watching the national TV and followers of war bloggers for sure. But for the rest the current situation is just a very dark fragment in the history of Russia and everybody is just waiting for it to end.
• trymas 8mo ago
  Also many westerns forget (or have no clue) that in ruzzian mindset suffering is one of the greatest virtues. The more you suffer - the better ruzzian you are. By western standards ruzzian economy is in collapse, but their citizens are willing to endure anything beyond western imagination. Not to mention that even before 2022 apart from Moscow and Saint Petersburg there are many towns that are like timecapsules 50+ years into the past. TL;DR: I will believe ruzzina state collapse/death when I will see it, but now I don't hold my breath.