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Elon in shambles > Our experience as the only company operating a fully autonomous service at this scale has reinforced a fundamental truth: demonstrably safe
by tgrowazay 8mo ago
Elon in shambles
> Our experience as the only company operating a fully autonomous service at this scale has reinforced a fundamental truth: demonstrably safe AI requires equally resilient inputs. This deep understanding of real-world requirements is why the Waymo Driver utilizes a custom, multi-modal sensing suite where high-resolution cameras, advanced imaging radar, and lidar work as a unified system. Using these diverse inputs, the Waymo Driver can confidently navigate the "long tail" of one-in-a-million events we regularly encounter when driving millions of miles a week, leaving nothing to the imagination of a single lens.
- xnx 8mo agoWaymo is absolutely delighting in their luck that Elon is so stubborn that he has kept Tesla from being anywhere close to catching up.
- willio58 8mo agoElon cult members still to this day will tell me that because humans only use vision to drive all a Tesla needs is simple cameras. Meanwhile, I've been driven by Waymo and Tesla FSD and Waymo is by far my pick for safety and comfort. I actually trusted the waymo I was in, while the Tesla I rode in we had 2 _very_ scary incidents at high speeds in a 1 hour drive.
- jcalvinowens 8mo ago> humans only use vision to drive I love this argument because it is so obviously wrong: how could any self aware person seriously argue that hearing, touch, and the inner ear aren't involved in their driving? As an adult I can actually afford a reliable car, so I will concede that smell is less relevant than it used to be, at least for me personally :)
- xnx 8mo ago> hearing, touch, and the inner ear aren't involved Not to mention possibly the most complex structure in the known universe, the human brain: 86 billion neurons, 100 trillion connections.
- kjksf 8mo ago1. in US you can get a driver's license if you're deaf so as a society we think you can drive without hearing 2. since this is in context of Tesla: tesla cars do have microphones and FSD does use it for responding to sirens etc.
- ibejoeb 8mo ago(1) is true, but actually driving is definitely harder without hearing or with diminished hearing. And Several US states, including CA, prohibit inhibiting hearing while driving, e.g., by wearing a headset, earbuds, or earplugs.
- ACCount37 8mo agoHuman inner ear is worse than a $3 IMU in your average smartphone in literally every way. And that IMU also has a magnetometer in it. Beating human sensors wasn't hard for over a decade now. The problem is that sensors are worthless. Self-driving lives and dies by AI - all the sensors need to be is "good enough".
- jcalvinowens 8mo ago> The problem is that sensors are worthless Well, in TFA the far more successful manufacturer of self driving cars is saying you're wrong. I think they're in much better position to know than you :)
- Cold_Miserable 8mo agoHuman hearing is excellent. Good directional perception and sensitivity. Eyesight is the weakest sense. Poor color sensitivity, low light sensitivity, blindspot. The terrible natural design flaws are compensated by natural nystagmas and the brain filling in the blanks.
- wat10000 8mo agoInvolved? Yes. Necessary? Pretty sure no. If it makes you happy, you can read "only vision" as "no lidar or radar." Cars already have microphones and IMUs.
- 0xffff2 8mo agoI don't thing it's purely stubbornness. Tesla sold the promise of software only updates resulting in FSD to hundreds of thousands of people. Not all of those people are in the cult of Tesla. I would expect admitting defeat at this point would result in a large class action lawsuit at the very least.
- sjsdaiuasgdia 8mo agoThe terms of service probably require you to sue Tesla in that Texas district with his corrupt judge pal.
- fhd2 8mo agoIt wouldn't keep them from equipping _new_ models with additional sensors, spinning a story around how this helps them train the camera-only AI, or whatever.
- Dumblydorr 8mo agoIt’s vaporware and it’s dollars and cents. Tesla EVs are already too expensive. He has no margin to include thousands more on sensors, alternative being the lawsuits that would follow if he admits it was all vaporware.
- inerte 8mo agoI know it's "illegal" and technically sold as FSD (assisted), but just 2 days ago I was in a friend's Model Y and it drove from work to my house (both in San Jose) without any steering wheel or pedal touch, at all. And he told me he went to Palm Springs like that too. I shit on Tesla and Elon on any opportunity, and it's a shame they basically have the software out there doing things when it probably shouldn't, but I don't think they're that far behind Waymo where it really matters, which is the thing actually working.
- ikrenji 8mo agoI suspect they have a long tail problem with FSD. It might work fine 99% but that's simply not good enough.
- youarentrightjr 8mo agoAccording to Elon, "sensor ambiguity" is a danger to the process [1], and therefore only a single type of sensor is allowed. (Conveniently ignores that there can be ambiguity/disagreement between two instances of the same type of sensor) The fact that people still trust him on literally anything boggles my mind. [1] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1959831831668228450 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1959831831668228450
- xnx 8mo agoTruly. I don't understand why Tesla fans think camera/lidar fusion is unsolvable but camera/camera fusion is a non-issue.
- hamdingers 8mo agoBecause they bought a Tesla with only cameras on it. Admitting this would be admitting their Tesla will never be self driving.
- xnx 8mo agoAdd a tow hitch to Waymos and any car can be autonomous!
- baggachipz 8mo agoI bought mine with cameras and a radar, which they then deprecated and left an unused. Even though autopilot was better when it had radar. Then I realized that this thing would never be self-driving and that its CEO was throwing nazi salutes. Cut my losses and got rid of it. Gotta admit defeat sometimes.
- wat10000 8mo agoDo Tesla fans think that? I've seen plenty of Tesla fans say that lidar is unnecessary (which I tend to agree with), but never that lidar is actively detrimental as Musk says there.
- SoftTalker 8mo ago
- aggie 8mo agoI've long expected Waymo's approach to prevail simply because - aside from whether vision-only proves good enough to some standard - it will be easy to lobby for regulations that favor the more conservative approach. But I also don't think we can take anything from what Waymo claims about the feasibility of vision-only.
- torginus 8mo agoI think past experience shows that the US prefers a wait and see approach - owning in part I think to it federal structure, where states compete for companies good graces and money, so if State A bans something, State B will allow it and gain an advantage in that area.
- ibejoeb 8mo agoMoreover, why draw a hard line on vision only when there is existing technology is available to augment it? It's not like they have to develop 3 novel technologies.
- agildehaus 8mo agoWaymo has posted videos of accidents they've avoided purely because their lidar picked up on a pedestrian before their cameras saw anything. A favorite of mine: https://x.com/dmitri_dolgov/status/1900219562437861685 https://x.com/dmitri_dolgov/status/1900219562437861685
- autoexec 8mo agoThey're very public about the data that makes them look good, but they went to court to keep their safety data from the public. (https://techcrunch.com/2022/02/22/waymo-to-keep-robotaxi-safety-details-secret-court-rules/ https://techcrunch.com/2022/02/22/waymo-to-keep-robotaxi-saf...)
- thevillagechief 8mo agoThat lawsuit was about trade secrets shared with DMV. And DMV advised them to file a restraining order against a third party seeking redacted info.