8 ms·

It’s not just that This is a gradual decline. From 70% in the 90s to 60% today. Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s. Peopl

It’s not just that This is a gradual decline. From 70% in the 90s to 60% today. Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s. People can argue over EU economic stability, but it’s there as reasonable option.

FrustratedMonky 9mo ago
when do we reach a tipping point for rapid decline? seems like once it starts falling, it would accelerate.
- plaidthunder 9mo ago
  There's an excellent and eerily prescient novel that attempts to portray what such a "tipping point" might look like, and when it could arrive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mandibles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mandibles
- jacquesm 9mo ago
  There is a pretty good chance you're right on top of it.
munk-a 9mo ago
There is a very sudden shift though - those options have existed but not generally been seriously considered. The US was seen as a bastion of stability and while sanctions could drastically impact a country's ability to trade due to the reliance on US currency exchange it has arguably been used relatively scarcely. The change is that suddenly the US isn't a bastion of stability and having an independent trading currency could ensure more internal stability for other nations.
- chrisco255 9mo ago
  The U.S. is as stable as it gets. It has been one continuous republic and has 250 years of legal stability and a history of paying its debts. It has 4.2% GDP growth, with the largest economy in the world and growing.
  - Spooky23 9mo ago
    "Faith and credit" means trust, and there's an elephant in the room impacting trust. Worse, what comes next?
  - RealityVoid 9mo ago
    > The U.S. is as stable as it gets Past returns are not indicative of future performance
  - throwaway888666 9mo ago
    I am pretty sure the US has not 4.2 percent growth Source? I live in the US and I have lived in countries with 4-5 gdp growth
    - deleted 9mo ago
      [deleted]
    - mschuster91 9mo ago
      They are likely referring to Q3/25 numbers [1]. The problem is the AI bubble, without it it is speculated that the US economy might actually be in a recession [2] - effectively, that web of investments, deals, ownerships, purchase contracts and god knows what is nothing more than wash trading that will come crashing down hard. That is why for the 99%, the economy doesn't "feel" like 4.3% of growth. If you're not in AI directly or at least adjacent (e.g. datacenter or utility construction), you don't feel any of that money. [1] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks-potential-us-recession-analyst-warns.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks...
      - deleted 9mo ago
        [deleted]
    - missedthecue 9mo ago
      The latest US GDP print is the Q3 2025 Initial Estimate, showing real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-economy-grew-third-quarter-rcna250644 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-economy-grew-thi...
parsimo2010 9mo ago
As time goes on, fewer people are alive that predate the EU and more people will perceive it as a lasting institution. Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). More people are certainly willing to believe in the stability of the EU now. Another major currency is the Yuan, and some countries may be as willing to trade in Yuan to improve relations with China, so perhaps we won't see one single reserve currency but two spheres of influence with most countries maintaining reserves of multiple currencies.
- selectodude 9mo ago
  The major benefit of the US Dollar is that you can do things with it. Between export controls, currency controls, laws on foreign ownership, etc, china can pay me all the RMB in the world. I still can’t do a whole lot with it.
  - parsimo2010 9mo ago
    This is part of the same reason many people don't use Bitcoin- you can't actually do much with it because retailers don't accept it. But China is definitely thinking about how to fix that problem, and soon they will make it possible to pay directly in CNY in other countries. Once you can buy things with it, the CNY is attractive from a practical perspective. A lot of your stuff is already manufactured in China, once/if using CNY makes your purchase easier then it's going to gain ground on the USD. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/what-to-watch-as-china-prepares-its-digital-yuan-for-prime-time/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/what-to-...
    - mothballed 9mo ago
      Retailers don't accept crypto not because of the technology so much as the fact it is a capital gains event every time you transfer crypto, which means both the buyer and seller are now forced to keep a log of their gains/losses against the dollar everytime they buy a pack of gum. Obviously that's extremely impractical and at best you're hiring a 3rd party to streamline that for you. It's a clusterfuck at tax time (edit: stable coin doesn't help here -- you must still report gains on stable coins as it is still a $0 capital gain which is different than no capital gain). Retailers already dealing with capital gains and with high chargeback rates love it though. For instance, it's usually the cheapest same-day clearing way to buy precious metals online since credit card rates are high (chargeback), ACH takes days, and wires tend to cost $15+ with many banks.
storus 9mo ago
EU can easily pull the plug on Euro as a reserve currency if they confiscate the money of a certain country and give it to another one. That would be the "front fell off" moment for Euro.
- glemion43 9mo ago
  [flagged]
  - deleted 9mo ago
    [deleted]
- microtonal 9mo ago
  Except they didn't and instead borrowed money for the other country. But more importantly, there seems to be a process in place, where a collective of rational actors makes choices, rather than someone who states he can go to war because he didn't get the Nobel Peace Prize. (Still disappointed that the winner of the FIFA peace prize wants to go to war /s.)
qwytw 9mo ago
> Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s Yet the Euro peaked back in 2009 and has been declining ever since. At this point its share is not that massively higher than that of the German mark back in the 90s.

FrustratedMonky 9mo ago

when do we reach a tipping point for rapid decline? seems like once it starts falling, it would accelerate.

plaidthunder 9mo ago
There's an excellent and eerily prescient novel that attempts to portray what such a "tipping point" might look like, and when it could arrive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mandibles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mandibles
jacquesm 9mo ago
There is a pretty good chance you're right on top of it.

munk-a 9mo ago

There is a very sudden shift though - those options have existed but not generally been seriously considered. The US was seen as a bastion of stability and while sanctions could drastically impact a country's ability to trade due to the reliance on US currency exchange it has arguably been used relatively scarcely. The change is that suddenly the US isn't a bastion of stability and having an independent trading currency could ensure more internal stability for other nations.

chrisco255 9mo ago
The U.S. is as stable as it gets. It has been one continuous republic and has 250 years of legal stability and a history of paying its debts. It has 4.2% GDP growth, with the largest economy in the world and growing.
- Spooky23 9mo ago
  "Faith and credit" means trust, and there's an elephant in the room impacting trust. Worse, what comes next?
- RealityVoid 9mo ago
  > The U.S. is as stable as it gets Past returns are not indicative of future performance
- throwaway888666 9mo ago
  I am pretty sure the US has not 4.2 percent growth Source? I live in the US and I have lived in countries with 4-5 gdp growth
  - deleted 9mo ago
    [deleted]
  - mschuster91 9mo ago
    They are likely referring to Q3/25 numbers [1]. The problem is the AI bubble, without it it is speculated that the US economy might actually be in a recession [2] - effectively, that web of investments, deals, ownerships, purchase contracts and god knows what is nothing more than wash trading that will come crashing down hard. That is why for the 99%, the economy doesn't "feel" like 4.3% of growth. If you're not in AI directly or at least adjacent (e.g. datacenter or utility construction), you don't feel any of that money. [1] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks-potential-us-recession-analyst-warns.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks...
    - deleted 9mo ago
      [deleted]
  - missedthecue 9mo ago
    The latest US GDP print is the Q3 2025 Initial Estimate, showing real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-economy-grew-third-quarter-rcna250644 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-economy-grew-thi...

parsimo2010 9mo ago

As time goes on, fewer people are alive that predate the EU and more people will perceive it as a lasting institution. Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). More people are certainly willing to believe in the stability of the EU now. Another major currency is the Yuan, and some countries may be as willing to trade in Yuan to improve relations with China, so perhaps we won't see one single reserve currency but two spheres of influence with most countries maintaining reserves of multiple currencies.

selectodude 9mo ago
The major benefit of the US Dollar is that you can do things with it. Between export controls, currency controls, laws on foreign ownership, etc, china can pay me all the RMB in the world. I still can’t do a whole lot with it.
- parsimo2010 9mo ago
  This is part of the same reason many people don't use Bitcoin- you can't actually do much with it because retailers don't accept it. But China is definitely thinking about how to fix that problem, and soon they will make it possible to pay directly in CNY in other countries. Once you can buy things with it, the CNY is attractive from a practical perspective. A lot of your stuff is already manufactured in China, once/if using CNY makes your purchase easier then it's going to gain ground on the USD. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/what-to-watch-as-china-prepares-its-digital-yuan-for-prime-time/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/what-to-...
  - mothballed 9mo ago
    Retailers don't accept crypto not because of the technology so much as the fact it is a capital gains event every time you transfer crypto, which means both the buyer and seller are now forced to keep a log of their gains/losses against the dollar everytime they buy a pack of gum. Obviously that's extremely impractical and at best you're hiring a 3rd party to streamline that for you. It's a clusterfuck at tax time (edit: stable coin doesn't help here -- you must still report gains on stable coins as it is still a $0 capital gain which is different than no capital gain). Retailers already dealing with capital gains and with high chargeback rates love it though. For instance, it's usually the cheapest same-day clearing way to buy precious metals online since credit card rates are high (chargeback), ACH takes days, and wires tend to cost $15+ with many banks.

storus 9mo ago

EU can easily pull the plug on Euro as a reserve currency if they confiscate the money of a certain country and give it to another one. That would be the "front fell off" moment for Euro.

glemion43 9mo ago
[flagged]
- deleted 9mo ago
  [deleted]
microtonal 9mo ago
Except they didn't and instead borrowed money for the other country. But more importantly, there seems to be a process in place, where a collective of rational actors makes choices, rather than someone who states he can go to war because he didn't get the Nobel Peace Prize. (Still disappointed that the winner of the FIFA peace prize wants to go to war /s.)

qwytw 9mo ago

> Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s Yet the Euro peaked back in 2009 and has been declining ever since. At this point its share is not that massively higher than that of the German mark back in the 90s.