8 ms·

Take heed, Americaneez -- and prepare, because this may be in your future sooner than prediction markets would have you believe [1]. LoRa mesh networking seems

Take heed, Americaneez -- and prepare, because this may be in your future sooner than prediction markets would have you believe [1]. LoRa mesh networking seems like the runner-up, but vague reports indicate (Meshtastic) doesn't handle crowds well. I think Bitchat can use Meshtastic, so a LoRa radio paired with a phone could be a base for not just texting individuals, but community messaging. 1: https://polymarket.com/event/us-civil-war-before-2027 https://polymarket.com/event/us-civil-war-before-2027

darubedarob 9mo ago
All my life ive heard this, yelled at me by deeply anti democratic anti socials. People voted for trumps policies. Again, yes even after jan 6. Better luck next time, but for 4 years this is what they ordered. ICE going after fraud and illegals. Voted for. Closed borders. Voted for. Isolationist imperialism and a end of the western free trade world order.Voted for. A loose Canon. Voted for. A screeching social priest caste driven ou the door. Voted for. The people have spoken and the reject progressive policies (more accurately they dont care, but reject the package it comes in). Se la vi. Trump has a ton of work todo before he reaches the starting point of the mullahs. 12000 dead in 3 days. Thats ice shooting 8 people trying to run them over every day. Politics has not platform here, including rejected by the masses cosplay revolutionaries hijacking real disasters. Do something good, help iranian civilization recover.
- mrtesthah 9mo ago
  People don't get to vote to violate the constitutional rights of their fellow citizens.
  - ChocolateGod 9mo ago
    If they're in the country illegally are they citizens?
    - jasonjayr 9mo ago
      That's an easy one. They're people, and still have rights. That's non-negotiable.
      - ChocolateGod 9mo ago
        If you're in a country illegally, yes you do have rights but the right to stay is not one of them.
        ActorNightly 9mo ago
        Here is the thing You are all sold this lie that "illegal immigrants take your jobs" or "bring drugs into the country", and you immediately adopt this as truth and don't even bother to fact check this because of your inherent racism. In reality the vast amounts immigrants that are coming into US are putting 10 times back more into the economy than they are taking because they are all coming here to work. And they work at jobs that Americans don't want because they pay less. Not that there was even an unemployment crisis to begin with, so Americans had plenty of jobs. The problem with immigration was the asylum process, where there were not enough staff to process all the requests and determine real ones from fake ones. This is why there was a border bill brought up in 2023-2024, authored by a Republican, that had bipartisan support. Trump killed that bill, saying on record that it would help his election chances. So in the end, more people would have been deported if the border bill would have passed than there are now, and there would have been way more filtering on who gets to stay and who doesnt. All of this is true, none of this is debatable. No, your favorite right wing commentator opposing arguments are all bullshit. And this is precisely why conservatives deserve no sympathy. Inherent racism is probably due to the shit job your parents did at raising you, which is at least excusable, but the stupidity of voting for someone who gives you the worse outcome compared to what you want, and then claiming its a better outcome, is not.
    - _def 9mo ago
      They are human, that's all you need to know.
szundi 9mo ago
[dead]
killingtime74 9mo ago
If there is really a civil war, won't these frequencies just get jammed?
- zmgsabst 9mo ago
  The US is huge — you can’t jam everything everywhere. Talking about just cities, you still can’t jam everything everywhere. But yes, targeted suppression/oppression (depending on your allegiance) will almost certainly use jamming — in fact, I’ve spoken with some Antifa about how they jam EMS frequencies at their events.
  - p0w3n3d 9mo ago
    This reminds me the way the software was distributed in eastern countries when there was no internet. People went to market to meet other people, and they were peddling/colporting (look up the term in French) cassettes with the software. The same can happen now - people would walk down the streets to certain places, to become hubs of information, but with no physical contact. Of course those places would be were the jammers would head to. Actually this sounds like a good theme for book... however as long as I live on this world, I've noticed that if I invent something, there are already two people on the internet who have invented it already, so... please give me the title :)
    - LeratoAustini 9mo ago
      To save others the search: Colportage is the distribution of publications, books, and religious tracts by carriers called "colporteurs" or "colporters"
      - bluebarbet 9mo ago
        "Colporter" is not an especially fancy word, it just means "to peddle" in English.
      - DicIfTEx 9mo ago
        And for anything you really need to keep hidden, there's always culportage.
throwaway2037 9mo ago
Not to side track too much from this discussion, but I looked at that PolyMarket event: "US civil war before 2027?" Currently, it is priced at 91.3 USD cents for No. If you bet 100 USD, the payout for No will be 109.43. That is very good return -- ~9.5% for 12 months of lending (as PolyMarket required full payment at the time of trade). That is twice the (retail) risk free rate at the moment. I am actually tempted to buy a large part of the order book. Am I missing something obvious? Also, if you enjoy troll humor, the comments section is very funny.
- jddj 9mo ago
  There are a few like this. You can bet on Jesus not coming back in the calendar year for a little pocket money. Funny, because a bit like the yes side of the civil war scenario, if JC comes back and someone is the sort of person to bet that he will, then do they really need the payout in those circumstances; and will the gambling website be in a position to pay out?
  - isubkhankulov 9mo ago
    Polymarket and other prediction markets dont take risk on the trades. Two sides are needed to make a market so you’re likely to get your payout. So all the people taking the “safe” bet lose their collateral and the winners get the proceeds if the unlikely event happens.
- nsvd2 9mo ago
  If you haven't been paying attention to American politics, there are currently widespread protests due to a woman being shot by ICE last week. It looks like the current administration may be seeking violent unrest in the hopes of delaying elections.
  - derektank 9mo ago
    There were large protests in the wake of a law enforcement officer killing someone in 2020 too. Notably, there was not a civil war, even though the Trump administration used the protests as cover for bad behavior then too
tonyhart7 9mo ago
[flagged]
- defrost 9mo ago
  Perhaps heed the HN guidelines and avoid obviously false hyperbole. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kelly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kelly seems better qualified to fight than, for example, the current day drinking daytime host self styled as head of "Dep. of War".
- yard2010 9mo ago
  Are you saying there is a vacuum? Because vacuum usually get filled with crazy militants
- JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
  > the left cant even fight New York and California have enough GDP, weapons factories and in-state fissile materials to make a civil war at least interesting. (They’re also both primed to land foreign armies on their shores and air strips). In repression, guns and muscles count. In a civil war, they’re as effective as Maduro’s guard was.
  - tonyhart7 9mo ago
    [flagged]
    - defrost 9mo ago
      I'm sure the ICE agents swapping head-shot porn on their phones find that hilarious. In history mothers against authoritarian rule, against the draft, raising awareness, etc. have been suprisingly effective at slowing violence, attracting press coverage, kick starting civil rights, etc. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mothers_of_Plaza_de_Mayo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mothers_of_Plaza_de_Mayo * https://libcom.org/article/1965-72-sos-australian-mothers-resist-vietnam-war-conscription https://libcom.org/article/1965-72-sos-australian-mothers-re... * https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2025/0813/israel-gaza-war-soldiers-mothers-protest https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2025/0813/israel... Not every soldier, not every weekend warrior LEO LARPing, is comfortable shooting women in the face.
PeterStuer 9mo ago
Is market manipulation or insider trading even regulated on polymarket?
- mlrtime 9mo ago
  There is no insider trading on a bet, it's kind of the point. Would you bet a large amount of money without some insider information?
- ethmarks 9mo ago
  Insider trading on prediction markets is the whole point. They don't exist to provide a fair platform for normal people to make money, they exist to create accurate predictions by providing a monetary incentive for people to be correct. Whether "correct" means that you were just lucky, that you had insider knowledge, or that you were able to influence the result, is irrelevant.
  - PeterStuer 9mo ago
    If I know the outcome, why would I bet largw before the outcome is to be publicly revealed? I just wait and bet only if the market is wrong when the reveal is imminent. Isn't this a realy good money laundering avenue? I sell you guaranteed outcomes, for a fee ofc.
torginus 9mo ago
802.11s with BATMAN routing works very well - you can have commercial quality links with tons of nodes. The problem is transmitter power, residential Wifi radios are limited to a very low transmit power, like 0.1W, if you do more than that, you're breaking the law, and you're very easy to find if they come looking.
ActorNightly 9mo ago
We won't have a Civil war. We need one for sure, but the problem is that most people lives are very comfortable right now, and the average person doesnt care enough to die over any of the stuff they believe in. Its more likely that our economy will tank and you will have more civil unrest.
atmosx 9mo ago
Iran doesn't have the ability to control what you see online. If BigCorps play along, the US can largely do that, to much much greater extend. So they don't really need to bring the internet down, they can just have LLMs create custom "reddit pages" on the fly.
derangedHorse 9mo ago
Yeah, someone recently made a fork of the meshtastic firmware to support bitchat: https://github.com/evansmj/firmware-bitchat-plugin https://github.com/evansmj/firmware-bitchat-plugin

darubedarob 9mo ago

All my life ive heard this, yelled at me by deeply anti democratic anti socials. People voted for trumps policies. Again, yes even after jan 6. Better luck next time, but for 4 years this is what they ordered. ICE going after fraud and illegals. Voted for. Closed borders. Voted for. Isolationist imperialism and a end of the western free trade world order.Voted for. A loose Canon. Voted for. A screeching social priest caste driven ou the door. Voted for. The people have spoken and the reject progressive policies (more accurately they dont care, but reject the package it comes in). Se la vi. Trump has a ton of work todo before he reaches the starting point of the mullahs. 12000 dead in 3 days. Thats ice shooting 8 people trying to run them over every day. Politics has not platform here, including rejected by the masses cosplay revolutionaries hijacking real disasters. Do something good, help iranian civilization recover.

mrtesthah 9mo ago
People don't get to vote to violate the constitutional rights of their fellow citizens.
- ChocolateGod 9mo ago
  If they're in the country illegally are they citizens?
  - jasonjayr 9mo ago
    That's an easy one. They're people, and still have rights. That's non-negotiable.
    - ChocolateGod 9mo ago
      If you're in a country illegally, yes you do have rights but the right to stay is not one of them.
      - ActorNightly 9mo ago
        Here is the thing You are all sold this lie that "illegal immigrants take your jobs" or "bring drugs into the country", and you immediately adopt this as truth and don't even bother to fact check this because of your inherent racism. In reality the vast amounts immigrants that are coming into US are putting 10 times back more into the economy than they are taking because they are all coming here to work. And they work at jobs that Americans don't want because they pay less. Not that there was even an unemployment crisis to begin with, so Americans had plenty of jobs. The problem with immigration was the asylum process, where there were not enough staff to process all the requests and determine real ones from fake ones. This is why there was a border bill brought up in 2023-2024, authored by a Republican, that had bipartisan support. Trump killed that bill, saying on record that it would help his election chances. So in the end, more people would have been deported if the border bill would have passed than there are now, and there would have been way more filtering on who gets to stay and who doesnt. All of this is true, none of this is debatable. No, your favorite right wing commentator opposing arguments are all bullshit. And this is precisely why conservatives deserve no sympathy. Inherent racism is probably due to the shit job your parents did at raising you, which is at least excusable, but the stupidity of voting for someone who gives you the worse outcome compared to what you want, and then claiming its a better outcome, is not.
  - _def 9mo ago
    They are human, that's all you need to know.

szundi 9mo ago

[dead]

killingtime74 9mo ago

If there is really a civil war, won't these frequencies just get jammed?

zmgsabst 9mo ago
The US is huge — you can’t jam everything everywhere. Talking about just cities, you still can’t jam everything everywhere. But yes, targeted suppression/oppression (depending on your allegiance) will almost certainly use jamming — in fact, I’ve spoken with some Antifa about how they jam EMS frequencies at their events.
- p0w3n3d 9mo ago
  This reminds me the way the software was distributed in eastern countries when there was no internet. People went to market to meet other people, and they were peddling/colporting (look up the term in French) cassettes with the software. The same can happen now - people would walk down the streets to certain places, to become hubs of information, but with no physical contact. Of course those places would be were the jammers would head to. Actually this sounds like a good theme for book... however as long as I live on this world, I've noticed that if I invent something, there are already two people on the internet who have invented it already, so... please give me the title :)
  - LeratoAustini 9mo ago
    To save others the search: Colportage is the distribution of publications, books, and religious tracts by carriers called "colporteurs" or "colporters"
    - bluebarbet 9mo ago
      "Colporter" is not an especially fancy word, it just means "to peddle" in English.
    - DicIfTEx 9mo ago
      And for anything you really need to keep hidden, there's always culportage.

throwaway2037 9mo ago

Not to side track too much from this discussion, but I looked at that PolyMarket event: "US civil war before 2027?" Currently, it is priced at 91.3 USD cents for No. If you bet 100 USD, the payout for No will be 109.43. That is very good return -- ~9.5% for 12 months of lending (as PolyMarket required full payment at the time of trade). That is twice the (retail) risk free rate at the moment. I am actually tempted to buy a large part of the order book. Am I missing something obvious? Also, if you enjoy troll humor, the comments section is very funny.

jddj 9mo ago
There are a few like this. You can bet on Jesus not coming back in the calendar year for a little pocket money. Funny, because a bit like the yes side of the civil war scenario, if JC comes back and someone is the sort of person to bet that he will, then do they really need the payout in those circumstances; and will the gambling website be in a position to pay out?
- isubkhankulov 9mo ago
  Polymarket and other prediction markets dont take risk on the trades. Two sides are needed to make a market so you’re likely to get your payout. So all the people taking the “safe” bet lose their collateral and the winners get the proceeds if the unlikely event happens.
nsvd2 9mo ago
If you haven't been paying attention to American politics, there are currently widespread protests due to a woman being shot by ICE last week. It looks like the current administration may be seeking violent unrest in the hopes of delaying elections.
- derektank 9mo ago
  There were large protests in the wake of a law enforcement officer killing someone in 2020 too. Notably, there was not a civil war, even though the Trump administration used the protests as cover for bad behavior then too

tonyhart7 9mo ago

[flagged]

defrost 9mo ago
Perhaps heed the HN guidelines and avoid obviously false hyperbole. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kelly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kelly seems better qualified to fight than, for example, the current day drinking daytime host self styled as head of "Dep. of War".
yard2010 9mo ago
Are you saying there is a vacuum? Because vacuum usually get filled with crazy militants
JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
> the left cant even fight New York and California have enough GDP, weapons factories and in-state fissile materials to make a civil war at least interesting. (They’re also both primed to land foreign armies on their shores and air strips). In repression, guns and muscles count. In a civil war, they’re as effective as Maduro’s guard was.
- tonyhart7 9mo ago
  [flagged]
  - defrost 9mo ago
    I'm sure the ICE agents swapping head-shot porn on their phones find that hilarious. In history mothers against authoritarian rule, against the draft, raising awareness, etc. have been suprisingly effective at slowing violence, attracting press coverage, kick starting civil rights, etc. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mothers_of_Plaza_de_Mayo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mothers_of_Plaza_de_Mayo * https://libcom.org/article/1965-72-sos-australian-mothers-resist-vietnam-war-conscription https://libcom.org/article/1965-72-sos-australian-mothers-re... * https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2025/0813/israel-gaza-war-soldiers-mothers-protest https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2025/0813/israel... Not every soldier, not every weekend warrior LEO LARPing, is comfortable shooting women in the face.

PeterStuer 9mo ago

Is market manipulation or insider trading even regulated on polymarket?

mlrtime 9mo ago
There is no insider trading on a bet, it's kind of the point. Would you bet a large amount of money without some insider information?
ethmarks 9mo ago
Insider trading on prediction markets is the whole point. They don't exist to provide a fair platform for normal people to make money, they exist to create accurate predictions by providing a monetary incentive for people to be correct. Whether "correct" means that you were just lucky, that you had insider knowledge, or that you were able to influence the result, is irrelevant.
- PeterStuer 9mo ago
  If I know the outcome, why would I bet largw before the outcome is to be publicly revealed? I just wait and bet only if the market is wrong when the reveal is imminent. Isn't this a realy good money laundering avenue? I sell you guaranteed outcomes, for a fee ofc.

torginus 9mo ago

802.11s with BATMAN routing works very well - you can have commercial quality links with tons of nodes. The problem is transmitter power, residential Wifi radios are limited to a very low transmit power, like 0.1W, if you do more than that, you're breaking the law, and you're very easy to find if they come looking.

ActorNightly 9mo ago

We won't have a Civil war. We need one for sure, but the problem is that most people lives are very comfortable right now, and the average person doesnt care enough to die over any of the stuff they believe in. Its more likely that our economy will tank and you will have more civil unrest.

atmosx 9mo ago

Iran doesn't have the ability to control what you see online. If BigCorps play along, the US can largely do that, to much much greater extend. So they don't really need to bring the internet down, they can just have LLMs create custom "reddit pages" on the fly.

derangedHorse 9mo ago

Yeah, someone recently made a fork of the meshtastic firmware to support bitchat: https://github.com/evansmj/firmware-bitchat-plugin https://github.com/evansmj/firmware-bitchat-plugin