3 ms·

...and then China invades Taiwan, and nobody ain't getting nothing.

Antibabelic 9mo ago
I feel like China invading Taiwan isn't happening in our lifetimes. Yes, they stand to benefit from it, but I doubt any of the people in charge of decision making are that interested in rocking the boat. There's nobody forcing their hand and the country is doing great without needing to invade anyone.
- marcosdumay 9mo ago
  > Yes, they stand to benefit from it They would benefit in what way? Because their government seems to benefit a lot from Taiwan existing and being an enemy.
- bpodgursky 9mo ago
  They are 100% going to force the issue. It will likely be a naval plus air blockade to force a political solution to avoid the messiness of an invasion, but time is on China's side there.
  - alex43578 9mo ago
    Is time on their side? Long term: demographics are worsening for China relative to now or 5 years ago. Short term: China doesn’t yet have viable homegrown replacements for ASML, TSMC, etc. Really short term: China blockading Taiwan and suffering the economic fallout would be much more painful than US blockading Cuba/Venezuela/etc. A decisive kinetic action or a very soft political action, rather than a blockade seems more viable in the current state.
    - redhed 9mo ago
      There's some intersection point between long term decreasing in China's ability (demographic collapse) and long term increase in China's ability (their current build up of military hardware in air, land, and sea that is currently outpacing America's). Maybe somewhere in 10-20 years where their regional military power is much higher than America can project across the Atlantic but they still have a lot of military aged men.
      - alex43578 9mo ago
        Atlantic? IDK if China even has aspirations to play World Police like the US. Military protection of things like their interests and the stability of Belt and Road, sure, but I don’t see China trying something like the Gulf War or OEF. It’s very possible that they will be able to dominate South China Sea and their zone of the Pacific, even now, given the proximity advantages and ship/missile production; and I think that would be satisfactory to them. 20 years from now, China’s sphere and America’s sphere are separate, with China having a lead in competing for Africa, and Europe in a very weird place socially, economically, demographically, and WRT Russia/US competition.
    - bpodgursky 9mo ago
      My point is that China can sustain a naval blockade of Taiwan nearly indefinitely, and at some point Taiwan will have to decide whether they want to live under siege forever (poor, cold, getting everything via scarce and expensive air freight), or give up come to a political solution. I'm not like, rooting for this, I'm just trying to be realistic.
      - erxam 9mo ago
        That's exactly what the USA has been doing to Cuba since 1959 and they're still (barely) hanging around. If we go by that example, it'll only end with with an actual invasion (which is what will happen to Cuba within one to two years).
        bpodgursky 9mo ago
        It's not even slightly the same? The US has an embargo that doesn't impact other countries that want to trade with Cuba. China is going to put an actual cordon around Taiwan. Also, the US has no historical reason for claiming Cuba and has no real domestic pressure to do so (nobody in either party is asking for it). China has been very clear they see Taiwan as a part of China and will reunite with it not for economic or strategic reasons, but for nationalistic ones.
- pjmlp 9mo ago
  That depends on a certain administration, and it isn't looking good, "if they can, we also can".
- rob74 9mo ago
  Let's hope China doesn't get a leader like Donald Trump in our lifetimes, then I think your prediction will apply. Despite the political tensions, China and Taiwan are so deeply integrated economically that an invasion would hurt not only Taiwan and the global economy, but also China (directly and indirectly). The EU and the US are making efforts to re-shore some semiconductor manufacturing, but TSMC and others will probably still keep a sizable amount of manufacturing in Taiwan, so I don't think this interconnectedness will change anytime soon...
  - elcritch 9mo ago
    It seems that their leaders are and have been planning to take over Taiwan for decades. At least according to most of what I’ve read on the topic from all the various sources. If or when China’s economic and/or demographics issues become problematic is exactly when the CCP likely would want to strike. At least seems to me like it’d be a good time to foment national pride. Of course hopefully I’m wrong and you’re right. Many of these larger geopolitical things are decades in the making. Even Trump’s Venezuela action has been a long time brewing. So much so that “US troops in Venezuela” has become a trope in military sci-fi. The primary change with Trump is how he presents and/or justifies it, or rather doesn’t.
- pixl97 9mo ago
  I mean who would have put 'US talks about invading Greenland' on the list of bullshit we have to deal with.
- FuriouslyAdrift 9mo ago
  2027 is the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party and they have publicly disclosed they want Taiwan re-united by then.
- tim-tday 9mo ago
  The leader of China literally publicly told his military to have “all options for reunification of Taiwan ready by 2027” What options do you suppose the military might be working on? Training to surround, and blockade? (Check) Information warfare? (Check) Building high numbers of landing craft? (Check) Building high numbers of modular weapon systems that can rapidly increase the number of offensive ships? (Check) Building numerous high volume drone warfare ships and airborne launchers? (Check) Keep in mind that there are public language cues that preceded invasion such as declarations of the invalidity of the other country’s sovereignty, declarations that the other country is already part of the invading country. Have you seen any signs of that? Your persistent doubts require ignorance of strong evidence.
  - Antibabelic 9mo ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning
    - alt227 9mo ago
      Wow, I knew China were full of it but 900 final warnings?!
    - maxglute 9mo ago
      This retarded meme gets posted about PRC bluffing but context behind it illustrates the opposite. The warnings were against US/TW based U2s overflights, which PRC was both warning and doing - actively attempting to shoot down despite having inferior capabilities. The chefs kiss that this is an USSR meme is that PRC shot down more U2s using modified soviet hardware than USSR herself. Even more so when consider PRC issued actual final warning to USSR that ended up in border skirmishes. PRC's actual final warning is "don't say we didn't warn you" which historically predicts PRC kinetic action with high certainty. USSR, India border skirmishes. Korean war against UN. PRC also has directly supported North Vietnam against the French, and threatened UK when they hinted at granting HK independence under Thatcher. That's every NPT nuclear state over territorial / security issues less important than TW. It doesn't always lead to immediate action, but has consistently been prelude to it.
- dartharva 9mo ago
  "They stand to benefit from it" how!? The only thing they'll get is immediate geopolitical scorn which could very well escalate to mass military action considering how much TSMC now means for the world's economy. A single temporary shutdown of the fabs would mean a global economic apocalypse. They'd be inviting all powers of the world to attack them for no upside whatsoever, because it will all be over by the time they figure out how to leverage the fabs themselves.
adventured 9mo ago
The US has its own TSMC supply (insert comments about it not being cutting edge). And the US will stand-down and let China take Taiwan with no serious conflict in exchange for supply agreements. Not more than 5-10 years out at this point. The US can't even remotely come close to stopping China in its own backyard today, in another 5-10 years they'll just have that much larger of a Navy. The US knows that's the situation. The US can supply a large one week bombing campaign against China and that's it, based on inventory levels. The US will exhaust its cruise missile supply instantly and the US has almost no meaningful drone-bomb supply. China can build cheap missiles by the tens of thousands perpetually, train them to the coast, and flatten Taiwan and any opponents as necessary. China is the only country that can sustain a multi-year WW2 style bombing campaign today, thanks to its manufacturing capabilities. Imagine them on a full war footing.
- petcat 9mo ago
  > The US has its own TSMC supply (insert comments about it not being cutting edge) USA has been strategically re-homing TSMC to the US mainland for a long time now. 30% of all 2nm and better technologies are slated to be produced in Arizona by 2030. The real loser in all of this will be the EU which will be completely without the ability to produce or acquire chips. They'll just end up buying from China and USA, which will only further deepen their dependence on those countries.
  - rob74 9mo ago
    Just because you haven't heard of it doesn't mean that the EU isn't doing anything: https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semiconductor_manufacturing_to_europe_esmc_is_making_it_happen/ https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semi...
    - kyboren 9mo ago
      That's announcing 40k WSPMs of eventual capacity spread across 28nm and 16nm nodes. I mean, it's a start, and I'm sure automakers are totally stoked given the Nexperia debacle, but the EU will remain completely dependent on foreign advanced node semiconductors. Compare to TSMC's Arizona project, which will supply 30% of TSMC's 2nm and smaller process output. Already just one of the six planned TSMC fabs in Arizona is pumping out ~30k WSPMs at 5nm or smaller. And that doesn't even get into CoWoS packaging, which is essential for all the highest-performance and highest-margin parts. The fact is: In semiconductors, Europe is getting left in the dust. Sure they can fab some mature node chips for industrial uses--and that's not nothing--but Smartphone SoCs, "AI" accelerators, DRAM, even boring CPUs simply cannot be made any more in Europe, and to the limited extent that they can, they will be horrendously uncompetitive on the market and outclassed in every performance metric by Chinese and American chips. EU is on a big sovereignty kick right now, which makes sense given that their foreign dependencies keep blowing up in their faces. So it's strange that EU is so complacent about their foreign dependency on advanced node semiconductors.
znpy 9mo ago
I think Taiwan invasion by China will happen after foundries are built in the UI. My conspiracy theory is that there is some kind of "gentleman agreement" on this topic between the US and China. As soon as Taiwan is not needed anymore by the US for chip fabrication, the US will at the very least loose their grip on it. Note to commenters: that's my theory, does not mean I endorse it in any way.

I feel like China invading Taiwan isn't happening in our lifetimes. Yes, they stand to benefit from it, but I doubt any of the people in charge of decision making are that interested in rocking the boat. There's nobody forcing their hand and the country is doing great without needing to invade anyone.

marcosdumay 9mo ago
> Yes, they stand to benefit from it They would benefit in what way? Because their government seems to benefit a lot from Taiwan existing and being an enemy.
bpodgursky 9mo ago
They are 100% going to force the issue. It will likely be a naval plus air blockade to force a political solution to avoid the messiness of an invasion, but time is on China's side there.
- alex43578 9mo ago
  Is time on their side? Long term: demographics are worsening for China relative to now or 5 years ago. Short term: China doesn’t yet have viable homegrown replacements for ASML, TSMC, etc. Really short term: China blockading Taiwan and suffering the economic fallout would be much more painful than US blockading Cuba/Venezuela/etc. A decisive kinetic action or a very soft political action, rather than a blockade seems more viable in the current state.
  - redhed 9mo ago
    There's some intersection point between long term decreasing in China's ability (demographic collapse) and long term increase in China's ability (their current build up of military hardware in air, land, and sea that is currently outpacing America's). Maybe somewhere in 10-20 years where their regional military power is much higher than America can project across the Atlantic but they still have a lot of military aged men.
    - alex43578 9mo ago
      Atlantic? IDK if China even has aspirations to play World Police like the US. Military protection of things like their interests and the stability of Belt and Road, sure, but I don’t see China trying something like the Gulf War or OEF. It’s very possible that they will be able to dominate South China Sea and their zone of the Pacific, even now, given the proximity advantages and ship/missile production; and I think that would be satisfactory to them. 20 years from now, China’s sphere and America’s sphere are separate, with China having a lead in competing for Africa, and Europe in a very weird place socially, economically, demographically, and WRT Russia/US competition.
  - bpodgursky 9mo ago
    My point is that China can sustain a naval blockade of Taiwan nearly indefinitely, and at some point Taiwan will have to decide whether they want to live under siege forever (poor, cold, getting everything via scarce and expensive air freight), or give up come to a political solution. I'm not like, rooting for this, I'm just trying to be realistic.
    - erxam 9mo ago
      That's exactly what the USA has been doing to Cuba since 1959 and they're still (barely) hanging around. If we go by that example, it'll only end with with an actual invasion (which is what will happen to Cuba within one to two years).
      - bpodgursky 9mo ago
        It's not even slightly the same? The US has an embargo that doesn't impact other countries that want to trade with Cuba. China is going to put an actual cordon around Taiwan. Also, the US has no historical reason for claiming Cuba and has no real domestic pressure to do so (nobody in either party is asking for it). China has been very clear they see Taiwan as a part of China and will reunite with it not for economic or strategic reasons, but for nationalistic ones.
pjmlp 9mo ago
That depends on a certain administration, and it isn't looking good, "if they can, we also can".
rob74 9mo ago
Let's hope China doesn't get a leader like Donald Trump in our lifetimes, then I think your prediction will apply. Despite the political tensions, China and Taiwan are so deeply integrated economically that an invasion would hurt not only Taiwan and the global economy, but also China (directly and indirectly). The EU and the US are making efforts to re-shore some semiconductor manufacturing, but TSMC and others will probably still keep a sizable amount of manufacturing in Taiwan, so I don't think this interconnectedness will change anytime soon...
- elcritch 9mo ago
  It seems that their leaders are and have been planning to take over Taiwan for decades. At least according to most of what I’ve read on the topic from all the various sources. If or when China’s economic and/or demographics issues become problematic is exactly when the CCP likely would want to strike. At least seems to me like it’d be a good time to foment national pride. Of course hopefully I’m wrong and you’re right. Many of these larger geopolitical things are decades in the making. Even Trump’s Venezuela action has been a long time brewing. So much so that “US troops in Venezuela” has become a trope in military sci-fi. The primary change with Trump is how he presents and/or justifies it, or rather doesn’t.
pixl97 9mo ago
I mean who would have put 'US talks about invading Greenland' on the list of bullshit we have to deal with.
FuriouslyAdrift 9mo ago
2027 is the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party and they have publicly disclosed they want Taiwan re-united by then.
tim-tday 9mo ago
The leader of China literally publicly told his military to have “all options for reunification of Taiwan ready by 2027” What options do you suppose the military might be working on? Training to surround, and blockade? (Check) Information warfare? (Check) Building high numbers of landing craft? (Check) Building high numbers of modular weapon systems that can rapidly increase the number of offensive ships? (Check) Building numerous high volume drone warfare ships and airborne launchers? (Check) Keep in mind that there are public language cues that preceded invasion such as declarations of the invalidity of the other country’s sovereignty, declarations that the other country is already part of the invading country. Have you seen any signs of that? Your persistent doubts require ignorance of strong evidence.
- Antibabelic 9mo ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning
  - alt227 9mo ago
    Wow, I knew China were full of it but 900 final warnings?!
  - maxglute 9mo ago
    This retarded meme gets posted about PRC bluffing but context behind it illustrates the opposite. The warnings were against US/TW based U2s overflights, which PRC was both warning and doing - actively attempting to shoot down despite having inferior capabilities. The chefs kiss that this is an USSR meme is that PRC shot down more U2s using modified soviet hardware than USSR herself. Even more so when consider PRC issued actual final warning to USSR that ended up in border skirmishes. PRC's actual final warning is "don't say we didn't warn you" which historically predicts PRC kinetic action with high certainty. USSR, India border skirmishes. Korean war against UN. PRC also has directly supported North Vietnam against the French, and threatened UK when they hinted at granting HK independence under Thatcher. That's every NPT nuclear state over territorial / security issues less important than TW. It doesn't always lead to immediate action, but has consistently been prelude to it.
dartharva 9mo ago
"They stand to benefit from it" how!? The only thing they'll get is immediate geopolitical scorn which could very well escalate to mass military action considering how much TSMC now means for the world's economy. A single temporary shutdown of the fabs would mean a global economic apocalypse. They'd be inviting all powers of the world to attack them for no upside whatsoever, because it will all be over by the time they figure out how to leverage the fabs themselves.

adventured 9mo ago

The US has its own TSMC supply (insert comments about it not being cutting edge). And the US will stand-down and let China take Taiwan with no serious conflict in exchange for supply agreements. Not more than 5-10 years out at this point. The US can't even remotely come close to stopping China in its own backyard today, in another 5-10 years they'll just have that much larger of a Navy. The US knows that's the situation. The US can supply a large one week bombing campaign against China and that's it, based on inventory levels. The US will exhaust its cruise missile supply instantly and the US has almost no meaningful drone-bomb supply. China can build cheap missiles by the tens of thousands perpetually, train them to the coast, and flatten Taiwan and any opponents as necessary. China is the only country that can sustain a multi-year WW2 style bombing campaign today, thanks to its manufacturing capabilities. Imagine them on a full war footing.

petcat 9mo ago
> The US has its own TSMC supply (insert comments about it not being cutting edge) USA has been strategically re-homing TSMC to the US mainland for a long time now. 30% of all 2nm and better technologies are slated to be produced in Arizona by 2030. The real loser in all of this will be the EU which will be completely without the ability to produce or acquire chips. They'll just end up buying from China and USA, which will only further deepen their dependence on those countries.
- rob74 9mo ago
  Just because you haven't heard of it doesn't mean that the EU isn't doing anything: https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semiconductor_manufacturing_to_europe_esmc_is_making_it_happen/ https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semi...
  - kyboren 9mo ago
    That's announcing 40k WSPMs of eventual capacity spread across 28nm and 16nm nodes. I mean, it's a start, and I'm sure automakers are totally stoked given the Nexperia debacle, but the EU will remain completely dependent on foreign advanced node semiconductors. Compare to TSMC's Arizona project, which will supply 30% of TSMC's 2nm and smaller process output. Already just one of the six planned TSMC fabs in Arizona is pumping out ~30k WSPMs at 5nm or smaller. And that doesn't even get into CoWoS packaging, which is essential for all the highest-performance and highest-margin parts. The fact is: In semiconductors, Europe is getting left in the dust. Sure they can fab some mature node chips for industrial uses--and that's not nothing--but Smartphone SoCs, "AI" accelerators, DRAM, even boring CPUs simply cannot be made any more in Europe, and to the limited extent that they can, they will be horrendously uncompetitive on the market and outclassed in every performance metric by Chinese and American chips. EU is on a big sovereignty kick right now, which makes sense given that their foreign dependencies keep blowing up in their faces. So it's strange that EU is so complacent about their foreign dependency on advanced node semiconductors.

znpy 9mo ago

I think Taiwan invasion by China will happen after foundries are built in the UI. My conspiracy theory is that there is some kind of "gentleman agreement" on this topic between the US and China. As soon as Taiwan is not needed anymore by the US for chip fabrication, the US will at the very least loose their grip on it. Note to commenters: that's my theory, does not mean I endorse it in any way.