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With Nvidia scaling down their consumer GPU production [0] I wonder if we will see consumer GPUs shipping from China in the future. Western companies seem to b
by solid_fuel 10mo ago
With Nvidia scaling down their consumer GPU production [0] I wonder if we will see consumer GPUs shipping from China in the future. Western companies seem to be abandoning the consumer/prosumer market which will have bad implications for hobbyists and aspiring professionals down the line.
[0] https://www.pcmag.com/news/nvidia-might-cut-rtx-50-gpu-supply-by-up-to-40-in-2026-due-to-memory-shortages https://www.pcmag.com/news/nvidia-might-cut-rtx-50-gpu-suppl...
- apercu 10mo agoIf that happens, hardware trust becomes non-verifiable. We will also see talent pipeline erosion. Just further Western industrial policy failure.
- standardUser 10mo agoNon-verifiable by what standards?
- apercu 10mo agoModern GPU's often have on device firmware, secure boot chains, microcontrollers, etc. If you don't control silicon design, firmware signing and update pipelines you can't meaningfully attest to what the advice is doing.
- Yoric 10mo agoBut for most of us, that's already the case, isn't it?
- XorNot 10mo agoFor the average paranoid person who is wasting their life on it, sure But large organizations like defense are all about distributed trust anyway - even if you could verify the hardware, the guy you order to do it is going to be a whole command chain removed and likely a contractor with a clearance in the civilian world. Whereas your high level political and military leadership having direct contact with managers and designers in production facilities is extremely valuable.
- saubeidl 10mo agoWhat if my high level political and military leadership are the threat scenario? Remember Snowden.
- crote 10mo agoYou're screwed. An individual is completely powerless against the combined might of the entire country they live in. Nothing you touch and nobody you talk to can be trusted. But realistically, they'll just bring out the wrench[0]. [0]: https://xkcd.com/538/ https://xkcd.com/538/
- XorNot 10mo agoOr more likely you're just not that important and will be imprisoned without cause because close enough is good enough. People always seem to imagine tyranny worries about a standard of evidence. Tyranny has arrest quotas, evidence optional.
- HPsquared 10mo agoIs it verifiable now?
- apercu 10mo agoFair question. The technocrats are less than trustworthy.
- solid_fuel 10mo ago> If that happens, hardware trust becomes non-verifiable. Unfortunately I already have to run a binary blob just to play fps games from 10 years ago. I can't even load a new OS onto my phone anymore. Ultimately I'm not sure hardware sourced from China changes the trust equation very much, at least for me individually. I have much more concern about the FBI, which has recently decided to ramp up investigations into queer people [0][1][2], than I do about foreign powers - at least as long as it's not actively destructive malware or something. > We will also see talent pipeline erosion. We absolutely will, and to some degree I wonder if we aren't already with how popular tablets and phones are. I've noticed many young people these days don't really know how to interact with anything on a computer that isn't an app. GPUs and RAM becoming more significantly more expensive will take a huge chunk out of the hobby market and in doing so they will intensify the pipeline erosion. [0] https://www.advocate.com/politics/pam-bondi-trans-equality-bounties https://www.advocate.com/politics/pam-bondi-trans-equality-b... [1] https://ncac.org/news/advocacy-isnt-terrorism https://ncac.org/news/advocacy-isnt-terrorism [2] https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/09/26/us-trump-targets-opponents-in-sweeping-memorandum https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/09/26/us-trump-targets-opponen...
- qoez 10mo agoWould be interesting if the US decides to ban or heavily tariff these chips and if the consequence will be significanly cheaper data center access through chinese-owned sites/platforms
- the_pwner224 10mo agoYou don't need CUDA for gaming but software is still just as big of a moat. Gaming GPU drivers are complex and have tons of game-specific patches. With their new Radeon/RDNA architecture it took AMD years to overcome their reputation for having shitty drivers on their consumer GPUs (and that reputation was indeed deserved early on). And I bet if you go read GPU discussion online today you'll still find people who avoid AMD because of drivers. That won't stop them, but it's a big barrier to entry. Oh and that's just to get the drivers to work. Not including company-specific features that need to be integrated by the game devs into their game codebase, like DLSS / FrameGen and FSR. And in the past there was other Nvidia/AMD-specific stuff like PhysX, hair rendering, etc.
- Yoric 10mo agoOn the other hand, all it would take would be one successful Steam Deck/Steam Machine-style console to get all the developers of the world making sure that their games work on that hypothetical GPU. I don't think that it will happen in the next 5 years, but who knows?
- downrightmike 10mo agoCuda is 20 years old and it shows. Time for a new language that fixes the 20 years of rough edges. The Guy (Lattner) who made LLVM is working on this: https://www.modular.com/mojo https://www.modular.com/mojo Good podcast on him: https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/from-swift-to-mojo-and-high-performance https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/from-swift-to-moj...
- htrp 10mo agomojo been in the works for 3+ years now.... not sure the language survives beyond the vc funding modular has.
- bigyabai 10mo agoWhat I gather from this comment is that you haven't written CUDA code in a while, maybe ever. Mojo looked promising initially. The more details we got though, the more it became apparent that they weren't interested in actually competing with Nvidia. Mojo doesn't replace the majority of what CUDA does, it doesn't have any translation or interoperability with CUDA programs. It uses a proprietary compiler with a single implementation. They're not working in conjunction with any serious standardization orgs, they're reliant on C/C++ FFI for huge amounts of code and as far as I'm aware there's no SemVer of compute capability like CUDA offers. The more popular Mojo gets, the more entrenched Nvidia (and likely CUDA) will become. We need something more like OpenGL with mutual commitment from OEMs. Lattner is an awesome dude, but Mojo is such a trend-chasing clusterfuck that I don't know what anyone sees in it. I'm worried that Apple's "fuck the dev experience" attitude rubbed off on Chris in the long run, and made him callous towards appeals to openness and industry-wide consortiums.
- echelon 10mo ago> scaling down their consumer GPU production [0] >> Due to Memory Shortages I don't think Nvidia wants to give up on consumer. They're a gateway into the overall AI ecosystem. Having feet planted there also make sure they can play the local game when that begins to blow up. Nvidia wants a robotics play, too. This is a pragmatic choice. And most of the money is in commercial.
- bigbadfeline 10mo ago> I don't think Nvidia wants to give up on consumer... This is a pragmatic choice. You mean, NV is after the money with a heavy heart and a sad tear or two over the abandoned consumers, like "We love you so much but sorry, we must go pragmatic on you"? > And most of the money is in commercial. This is a serious systemic failure and it's even wilder that it's accepted without question.
- echelon 10mo agoThat's not the right light to view this chess move. If Nvidia had infinite supply and infinite resources, they would absolutely continue doing consumer. There are constraints that prevent them from doing so at the typical volumes. Giving up on consumer also means giving up on a gateway to more CUDA ecosystem users.
- cons0le 10mo agoThey're still selling GPS. They just want people to rent them instead of buy. Its definitely shitty, but it's not like they're quitting.
- vslira 10mo agoIt’s a good thing that Chinese companies have zero expertise in leveraging consumer demand for lower-end tech to develop know-how and catch up with the state of the art from Western-aligned companies and then economies of scale to surpass them in distribution.
- christophilus 10mo agoExactly. That's where this is heading, and the West-- as usual-- is pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up.
- echelon 10mo agoIs anyone here calling legislators about it to inform them of this? Does anyone here have leverage to affect strategy?
- xmprt 10mo agoIt might be a bit nihilistic but at this point I don't think the current US administration has any strategy. In past administrations, it felt like even if there was a strategy, bureaucracy and lack of caring enough to do their job led to nothing happening. In this administration, it feels like there's no care for the rules so in theory a strategy could be pushed through... except there isn't one - literally whoever is the last person to talk to the president is the person who gets to set the direction.
- roadside_picnic 10mo ago> I don't think the current US administration has any strategy I 100% believe the strategy is to enlarge the Trump family's wealth, and it's been a wildly successful strategy (in the past year he's been able to create billions in wealth for his family [0]). At least this vaguely ties Trump's success to the success of the United States in a limited capacity. Completely destroying the US is not ideal for him, but it's clear all policy decisions being made are being done so based on their capacity to improve Trump's situation. We've been headed this direction long before Trump, from both parties, increasingly American policy is about what's good for American companies and in particular the people who own them. Now that pool has just shrunk a bit. 0. https://www.wsj.com/politics/trump-family-business-visualized-6d132c71 https://www.wsj.com/politics/trump-family-business-visualize...
- coliveira 10mo agoThe general trend of the industry is to move computational resources from the hands of users into data centers, so that they can control what can be done and how much they'll charge for computational services. In the medium term, a lot of what we take for granted nowadays will only be accessible from cloud providers and companies will pay more and more in subscriptions for these services.
- rootusrootus 10mo agoHow will that work, exactly? The chip makers are going to have a list of approved "cloud providers" and they will refuse to sell to anyone else?
- coliveira 10mo agoCloud providers will use cheap investment capital to buy chips at increasing prices, while the public will be economically forced to get computational services from these cloud providers. After a few years, most software will work only when connected to cloud infrastructure, either for performance or for "safety" reasons. We're already seeing this with AI.
- Yoric 10mo agoaka "return of the Minitel"
- vbezhenar 10mo agoCloud was there for many years and it's not that cheap, compared to ordinary servers you can buy. It's not clear how anything will change in the future.
- Qem 10mo agoBecause of this I hope the current AI fad is a bubble and it bursts soon. So instead of cheap investment drying up the market for individual consumers, we'll have lots of used corporate hardware selling at scrap prices to end users.
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- segmondy 10mo agoscale down or not, we will see consumer GPU from China in the future. might be a copy or rip of existing GPUs, but it will happen. 3 of my GPU rigs are chinese MB built for the chinese market, ripoff of dual x99. They work, they are cheap, I got them for under $100 a piece. So maybe 5 years from now, we get cheap GPUs, and maybe they will be equivalent to 5090s, but who cares if the price is right?
- maxglute 10mo agoYeah PRC probably going to dump 1T into indigenize semi efforts by end of decade, but IMO good chance they're going to treat strategic semi as commodity utility business than make NASDAQ lines go up model. When western semi has 1st tier suppliers taking 30% margin, asml taking 50%, tsmc taking 50%, nvidia taking lol 70%, there's alot of fat on the pyramid to trim. PRC doing cost plus 10-20% will basically be able to brrrt chips stupid cheap if they have mature domestic tool scaling, enough to wipe litho+yield inefficiencies. Western semi still "safe" since west+co aren't going to source from PRC leading edge due to national security, but pretty soon they're either going to need to compress margins to compete which means cutting costs, which means cutting R&D because shareholder going to get theirs or western semi business model going to run on permenant subsidies. Which is what will probably happen considering their performance is why stonk lines go up right now. That 1T PRC spend and choose to simply discount for utility chips is going to wipe multipel trillion of western semi market cap and all the economic implications that entails so it might not even be bad idea.
- MoravecsParadox 10mo ago"your margin is my opportunity" - bezos
- barfoure 10mo agoYour analysis is out of date I think. This has already happened. Poor NXP just got their asses handed to them by the PRC. The fab they have in Italy looks nice but PRC has many of those.
- maxglute 10mo agoAlso Texas Instruments, STMicro, Onsemi, Microchip Tech, i.e. what PRC is doing after going big in mature nodes last few years they likely will also do in leading edge. IMO there's argument that since leading edge will definitely be strategically bifurcated PRC and western semi can pseudo collude to maintain higher margins, especially if PRC wants to claw back investment. But if western semi continues to drive economy/growth there's also incentive to weaponize margins.
- vablings 10mo agoIt makes me feel so gross that these companies are leaving gamers behind. The whole idea of a GPU was from gaming and games. And the whole AI evolution was subsequently born over the fact that gamers/software engineers could toy around with incredibly powerful CUDA without having to shoehorn a weird graphics Api in the middle to do mathematics. They did the same thing with the COVID crypto era boom. There really is no honor for these companies and I will be buying the first Chinese made silicone out of absolute spite and anger
- oytis 10mo agoIs AMD abandoning consumer market though? They seem to be much less in demand by AI industry.
- mywittyname 10mo agoAt this point, the only reason to be in the consumer GPU market is because that's the first rung on the ladder that leads to the AI data center market.
- cyberrock 10mo agoAMD is selling close to 10% of what Radeon* used to sell 15 years ago and yet it's all nVidia's fault: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/amd-grabs-a-share-of-the-gpu-market-from-nvidia-as-gpu-shipments-rise-slightly-in-q4 https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/amd-grabs-a-share... Edit: I meant ATI but I guess AMD bought ATI in 2006! I thought that happened in the 2010s for some reason.
- idiotsecant 10mo agoThis is nothing but good for normal people in the west. Chinese competition is needed to remove some of the rent seeking from the system.
- tester756 10mo agoThere's still AMD and Intel doing dGPUs
- zouhair 10mo agoNvidia folding would be the best day of my life.
- KronisLV 10mo agoAt this point I’d straight up buy their PC components, because fuck Nvidia for doing that. Same goes for other manufacturers throwing the consumer segment into the dirt because of their greed. I already got an Intel Arc to support more market competition (A580 was rough, B580 is a decent daily driver) and if the prices weren’t absolutely insane would have gotten the 245K (better than my 5800X, but not for the price).
- pantalaimon 10mo agoIt's just a matter of time until they show up on AliExpress - you can already order LoongArch systems (3A6000) and have them shipped to your doorstep.
- Havoc 10mo agoThere are the More Threads GPUs. They're kinda rubbish, but as a starting point / MVP for a parallel gaming hardware ecosystem its 100% viable.