8 ms·
Palantir could be the most overvalued company that ever existed
- mgh2 11mo agoAs long as the AI hopium flies
- duttish 11mo agoI'll throw the British South Sea Trading Company into the ring for that title of most overvalued company ever. It had the king himself on the board. The company value represented a decent fraction of the national gdp at the time. All without actually never producing anything of actual value. It was just bribes and speculation all the way through. It's wild. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company Extra History did a more easily digestible series, which was how I learned about it in the first place. https://youtu.be/k1kndKWJKB8 https://youtu.be/k1kndKWJKB8
- petesergeant 11mo ago> The company value represented a decent fraction of the national gdp at the time. The company's market-cap was almost 3 times national GDP
- duttish 11mo agoOh wow, thanks. I misremembered, thought it was like 1/3 and didn't have time to look it up again.
- maratc 11mo agoWe should stop comparing incomparable things, like companies market cap (measured in dollars or pounds) to national GDPs (measured in dollars or pounds per year,) unless we want to reach outrageous but incorrect conclusions.
- omnicognate 11mo agoIt's a dubious comparison but not because of "per year". The comparison is implicitly to one year's worth of GDP, which is a currency amount. It's dubious because whereas a year's worth of GDP has some claim to actually being the value of something (with many caveats but it's engineered to behave like that as much as possible), market cap isn't. It's the amount all the shares would cost if someone bought them all in one go for the price some shares were most recently purchased for, which would never happen.
- Nevermark 11mo agoWell, based on that last share purchase, we have incontrovertible proof that there was indeed one person in history who thought it was worth 3x GPD. And the fact that in the entire BSSTC shareholder universe, there wasn't any noticeable volume for a sell, or a registered sell limit, at a lower value leading up to the last peak. That must have been a rough trade, but someone got something out at the last moment.
- mort96 11mo agoA couple of points: 1. No, we don't have proof that there was one person who thought it was worth 3x GDP. We have proof that there was one person who thought a 0.001% share of the company was worth 0.003% of GDP or whatever. They could think it was worth that much for plenty of reasons; maybe they thought the share price would grow for a bit more before collapsing so that they could make some profit, maybe they invested in order to just be an investor and have a say in investor meetings or however things worked back then. Maybe it was a status thing. 2. Why are we using the opinion of one random person to determine the value of a company
- nl 11mo agoTo add to this, this type of thing happens all the time in crypto. A coin will release 1/1000000000th of it's eventual supply, have some trades at 10c and then claim the value of the entire supply as the headline value. It's obviously dumb.
- saagarjha 11mo agoUnrelated question: did we have a good enough idea of the world map in 1711 for the coat of arms shown on Wikipedia to be accurate?
- aetherson 11mo agoNo, and the article shows a not-even-attempting-accuracy period version of the coat of arms a little below: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:SouthSeaCompany_TradeLabel.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:SouthSeaCompany_TradeLabe...
- Der_Einzige 11mo agoGell Mann amnesia effect!
- Am4TIfIsER0ppos 11mo agoWTF is this? Another thing wikipedia invents out of thin air.
- tacker2000 11mo agoThe Wikipedia user based his drawing off of this sculpture from 1711, so it seems the american continent was actually already quite well mapped back then. https://www.rmg.co.uk/collections/objects/rmgc-object-36062 https://www.rmg.co.uk/collections/objects/rmgc-object-36062
- sorokod 11mo agoThe Armorials section in Wikipedia: The armorials of the South Sea Company, according to a grant of arms dated 31 October 1711, were: Azure, a globe whereon are represented the Straits of Magellan and Cape Horn all proper and in sinister chief point two herrings haurient in saltire argent crowned or, in a canton the united arms of Great Britain. Crest: A ship of three masts in full sail. Supporters, dexter: The emblematic figure of Britannia, with the shield, lance etc all proper; sinister: A fisherman completely clothed, with cap boots fishing net etc and in his hand a string of fish, all proper.[61]
- jqpabc123 11mo agoTSLA has to be in the mix with a PE over 300.
- TitaRusell 11mo agoI don't know. People judge Tesla and other companies on their links with the Trump cult and trade tariffs. And to be honest car manufacturers have always had very deep links with politics.
- jqpabc123 11mo agoMost car manufacturers have a PE around 10. TSLA is over 300. And sales of EVs are actually falling under Trump. And tariffs are not helping. Nothing about the valuation of TSLA or PLTR make any sense.
- iszomer 11mo agoI think it would blow their minds that Tesla isn't just an EV manufacturer.
- jqpabc123 11mo ago90% of TSLA income is from EV sales. Everything else is just Musk's grandiose and increasingly absurd predictions which have a long history of falling short of reality. For example: https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-tesla-robotaxi-will-cover-half-us-population-end-year/ https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...
- _DeadFred_ 11mo agoIsn't a bunch of it just bitcoin accounting tricks that were 9% of Tesla's profit in 2024? https://fortune.com/2025/01/30/tesla-profits-bitcoin-crypto-accounting/ https://fortune.com/2025/01/30/tesla-profits-bitcoin-crypto-... Oh yeah, and government subsidies (making up 38% of profits in 2024) https://news.sky.com/story/elons-playing-a-very-dangerous-game-how-trump-musk-fallout-threatens-tesla-13397588 https://news.sky.com/story/elons-playing-a-very-dangerous-ga...
- wavefunction 11mo agothey're gonna build the american social-discredit system for many filthy dollars
- Quothling 11mo agoTo me it would depend a lot on how US/EU relations continue to grow/break. If digital sovereignty ends up putting Palantir in a position where they won't be able to seel their intelligence tools to European secret police organisations, then it's probably overvalued. If relationships work out fine, then they'll basically be the Microsoft of mass survailance, which may make them overvalued but surely not the most overvalued company that ever existed?
- dididn284d 11mo agoOnce you’re embedded in govt, the ‘OS’ for government, then you can raise charges in order to keep the hoards at bay. Hoards that are angry at cuts to public services made in order to finance Palantir profits… What 4/5yr term govt can turn off or replace their OS?
- graemep 11mo agoI do not think the EU is critical. Palantir's potential market is global, so one region is not that important to them. They also sell to the private sector and this will increase, and EU countries will have different policies so losing a few EU governments business would not be that big a deal. Right now 73% or their sales are to the US, and the next biggest source of revenue is the UK, far behind at 10%. The whole of the rest of the world, including the EU, adds up to 17%.
- TitaRusell 11mo agoIn that case Palantir has to compete with China. And the US has a pretty bad neo colonialism and CIA rep. If I was the president of Mexico I would not trust anything from up North right now.
- graemep 11mo agoWould you trust China? it has an incomparably worse record than the US. A lot of the biggest potential markets are in Asia, and almost all Asia countries fear China, and to many of them it is their main potential military threat. IMO the best interests of either of the two countries of which i am a citizen would be to be less dependant on the US, however the US is nothing like the threat China presents. Edit: to add, they are competing with whatever equivalent product China has to sell anyway.
- nextstep 11mo agoFor the sake of democracy and freedom of human expression, I hope that their software is a bloated, bureaucratic mess and can’t power the efficient dystopia which Alex Karp wants.
- hunglee2 11mo agoit may well be terrible software, but Palantir are effectively an arm of the new Trumpian state, so guaranteed access (and ownership?) to the largest public sector projects of the largest economy in the world. It's got a good chance of becoming the Samsung of the US, so any value is not an overvalue
- gamma42 11mo agoLet's reconsider what you think the word value means
- petesergeant 11mo ago> an arm of the new Trumpian state, so guaranteed access (and ownership?) to the largest public sector projects of the largest economy in the world That puts them in a precarious situation when the political winds change
- iszomer 11mo ago> That puts them in a precarious situation when the political winds change I thought Alex Karp in a relatively recent interview said he didn't give a hoot?
- BLKNSLVR 11mo agoSo get in now, but get out soon before the Trumpian reign is over.
- davedx 11mo ago> any value is not an overvalue Ridiculous statement. If you're actually investing your money in a company then you need to run the numbers, it's the most basic kind of due diligence you should do.
- whycombinetor 11mo agoThis is the first time I've seen an ad presented as a bullet point in a list of otherwise-salient bullet points. Nefarious.
- dataflow360 11mo agoTry using Safari’s Reader view on this ad-riddled page, and you’re greeted with all-text content that’s… 100% ad!
- porridgeraisin 11mo agoYeah that's insane.
- corentin88 11mo agoUnreadable...
- _ink_ 11mo agoYeah, all credibility was immediately lost when I read that. I just closed the tab and put it away as ad piece.
- piker 11mo agoIt is pretty clearly labelled with "(Sponsor)". Couldn't be less obtrusive, either. I think on balance it's at least neutral compared with the other nonsense available to both the publisher and advertiser these days.
- richardatlarge 11mo agoMichael Burry shares his own thoughts on the subject, toward the end https://pca.st/episode/17966c7b-a56e-46f7-ab2d-03d86dbad650 https://pca.st/episode/17966c7b-a56e-46f7-ab2d-03d86dbad650
- gbriel 11mo agoThe market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
- owisd 11mo agoMichael Burry famously did quite well betting against that advice.
- literalAardvark 11mo agoOver 10 years he did even worse than Cathie Wood. He's ahead of Buffett but WB has massive AUM and MB should be running circles around him. So yeah... he had one movie worthy trade, but that doesn't make it a sound strategy.
- throaway45425 11mo agoIt is like there is this online bot that scans for any mention of an asset being overpriced and then it automatically post this Keynes quote.
- uxhacker 11mo agoCan somebody explain how the software actually adds value? How is it really that amazing? Or is it just a buzz word?
- davedx 11mo agoThere was a great blog post by an early employee on here a while back that did a deep dive. It's a good read: https://nabeelqu.substack.com/p/reflections-on-palantir https://nabeelqu.substack.com/p/reflections-on-palantir
- omnimus 11mo agoNo. Thats the point. There nothing groundbreaking except their branding and lobby. Every other enterprise sofware company has data analytics platforms similar to Palantir - including the big microsoft / google. Palantir might even be best by a big margin but none of that matters. Nothing would justify this valuation. But what matters is that govs around the world will buy Palantir to show their alliance to US/Trump/Thiel. European far right politicians will happily push Palantir everywhere.
- Jean-Papoulos 11mo ago>Palantir would need to grow its revenues roughly 15-fold (yes, 1,500%) over the next quarter century, implying sustained annual revenue growth in the 35% range over this time frame. That's actually a pretty reasonnable ask for a tech company, if you believe Palantir can grow to the level of FAANG.
- rsynnott 11mo agoSustained growth of 35% p/y over a _quarter of a century_ is not a 'reasonable' ask, tech company or no tech company. Virtually no company has ever done that.
- aoeusnth1 11mo ago15x over 25 years is a reasonable ask for probably half of tech companies because you don't need 35%/y do accomplish it, you only need 11.4%.
- aoeusnth1 11mo agoTheir math is just wrong. If they need to grow 15x over 25 years, they only need a modest 11.4% growth per year. 15^(1/35) = 1.11 1500^(1/35) = 1.34 Did the author maybe put a few extra zeros in their calculator when figuring out the annual revenue growth which would equal 15x over a 25 year span?
- terminalshort 11mo agoDumb analysis. Assumes that profit margin stays the same as revenue grows, which is particularly untrue for software.
- cmiles8 11mo agoOne of the concerns with the company though is are they really “software.” Many cite experiences with the where they deploy armies of people doing things to clean up data and other hands on labor for the “software” to work just “software” where you buy a license and off you go.
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- NedF 11mo ago[dead]
- gethly 11mo agoPalantir is only the 15th most overvalued: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-screener https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-screener
- MikeNotThePope 11mo agoP/E isn't the only way to value a company. A company can be unprofitable, and therefore not have a P/E, and still be worth something. A quickly growing startup that is losing money on paper but has free positive cash flow is one example.
- aswegs8 11mo agoWell, Palantir is the only really large company in the P/E top section. You could argue smaller companies have more upside and could thus justify their valuation easier
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- danpalmer 11mo agoLike Tesla, Palantir is an ideological investment for many, and likely why it's so over valued. Retail investors buy these stocks because they're buying into a world view. Tesla's is obvious (and it's not about green investments). Palantir's is a little less so, but they have built up an image that's right wing (but mostly not culture war), military-coded, and layered on American exceptionalism. They sell to the CIA, they sell to ICE, they help private healthcare companies milk their customers. This is all part of a world view that many people are in favour of, and Palantir represents it well. Andruil will likely do well for similar reasons once they go public. This is not really to fault them. I see the company as far more mature than Tesla. They've cultivated a brand that works well for them. This is also not intended to be a criticism of Palantir investors, there are many reasons to invest, and even if you subscribe to the above that is of course your right! Many people invest for ideological reasons, myself included, and that's fine.
- davedx 11mo ago> Many people invest for ideological reasons, myself included, and that's fine. It's fine if you don't mind losing your shirt. For us normal people, we invest to try and grow the money we've saved for the future (in my case, for my retirement), so investing in a company whose stock is insanely overvalued is a great way to blow up my pension pot. I don't understand the rationale behind "investing for ideological reasons", can you explain it?
- rcxdude 11mo agoInvestment for ideological reasons is basically "I like what this company is doing and want to see it succeed/want to make my returns on investment via it", and that investment helps it succeed, to at least some degree. You also get the opposite: "I don't like what this company is doing and don't want it to succeed/don't want to make money from this activity, so I won't invest in it". ESG investments were largely built up from this (much as they generally turned into box-ticking exercises as opposed to a useful distinction). Of course this is generally going to make less money than "I just want to make money/predict winners in the marketplace", but that's not everything people want to do with their money.
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- arghandugh 11mo agoOne illuminating factor as to why: watch their CEO Alex Carp overdose on cocaine while on stage in public. https://bsky.app/profile/ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3m7ahzwf4mc2u https://bsky.app/profile/ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3m7...
- bigbuppo 11mo agoAnd then you have Thiel going crazy about biblical end times prophecies involving the anti-christ and I'm starting to wonder wtf they're doing at Palantir.
- ZeroGravitas 11mo agoThe other founder is in the news for calling for public hangings to be brought back.
- raxxorraxor 11mo agoMy shitty country bought it anyway.
- tessierashpool9 11mo agoIt seems like he is just trying to make a point with his moving around about being "annoying" - which is what he is talking about.
- licyeus 11mo agoHe appears to be making that point for the entirety of the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8i-ys9faa74 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8i-ys9faa74
- djdjsjejb 11mo agoyou haven't seen the real ontology yet https://x.com/justintrimble/status/1997733647223603259?s=20 https://x.com/justintrimble/status/1997733647223603259?s=20
- m4r1k 11mo agoPalantir is a shit show
- tessierashpool9 11mo agoIf they keep their shit together and ride the surveillance wave then I don't see what should keep them from increasing 15fold by 2050. Their technology is not at all dependent on AGI, which is why I don't understand why they are always thrown in together with OpenAI et al.
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- epolanski 11mo agoPalantir has terrific sales and lobbyists. I'd never bet on them, nor against them.
- chii 11mo agoif you had the money to spare (and don't mind losing it), would you still not bet on them then?
- DoingIsLearning 11mo agoI have very specifically invested in Defense funds that exclude Palantir both because I think it's overpriced and for ethical reasons.
- epolanski 11mo agoEven if you have money you don't mind losing, there's plenty of options to choose from on financial markets and Palantir is just one of them. So the question is still why Palantir and not X/Y/Z?
- nrhrjrjrjtntbt 11mo agoWhat an ad ridden mess. Even one of the summary bullets is an affiliate link.
- gadders 11mo agoCan someone actually explain what the magic sauce is in what Palantir does? I understand it pulls data together?
- lm28469 11mo agoPapypal mafia, thiel, musk, trump, money, oligarchy, conflicts of interests, military–industrial complex, 3 letters agencies, mass surveillance, &c. It's kind of a conspiracy theory bingo at that point, it's probably somehow even worse than we can imagine
- willis936 11mo agoThey think there is money on the table from maximizing anti-ethical behavior. This misinterprets capitalism's current state as something with ethics.
- mclightning 11mo agoMagic sauce is absolute lack of moral values.
- gadders 11mo agoBut I mean in terms of technical capability? How is it different than chucking everything in Postgres or a Big Data lake or something?
- salawat 11mo agoIt isn't. It's just that they're doing it where others aren't. They're a child of Total Information Awareness that has never realized or just doesn't care about the societal poison pill inherent to it.
- loky4i4 11mo agolol and you know that based on what information ?
- 11mo ago
- nl 11mo agoThe reason Palantir is valued as highly is because it is a Peter Thiel company, and he also owns the Vice President of the United States. The thesis is "The current US administration is making enormous profits from their powerful positions. Whether of not I agree with this, I want some of that money too". I'm not sure why this isn't mentioned because it's the number one factor driving the price.
- nh23423fefe 11mo agoits not mentioned because its boring political pablum
- conartist6 11mo agoPutting this here for visibility, but go upvote the people who actually did the sleuthwork: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46190013 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46190013 It seems like the financial outlet made a maths error and then was amazed by the absurdity of the incorrect result they got. Specifically their whole outrage is based on having accidentally calculated what would need to happen for Palantir's revenues to grow 1500x as opposed to 15x. The corrected statistic would be the Palantir requires 11.4% revenue growth year over year not 35%.
- htrp 11mo agoFor people who are unclear what Palantir actually does Palantir is a tech platform that consumes data from their clients in return for providing high level data-driven insights. They assign FDEs (or consultants) to really learn the details of a customers data. Foundry allows them to get single pane view of the data in an org and they actually have both the tech and engineering skills to do the dirty data cleaning jobs. For an extravagant fee, you give them your data, they clean it for you, and then those same FDEs can tell you interesting things that you should have known, had you actually done proper data architecture in the first place. Does it add value, yes. Is the value worth the fee? Like snowflake, they throw some very very good parties.
- red-iron-pine 11mo agoMore than Tesla? good luck
- tsoukase 11mo agoToday the fast growing US stocks are those that discount the further concentration of wealth to the current private-government elite. They believe that in the coming years they will flourish at the expense of the middle/lower class.
- lazzlazzlazz 11mo agoThe cope and envy in the comments here are among the worst I've read on Hacker News. The anti-tech hysteria has even made it here. Sad days.