6 ms·

Why are you assuming Anthropic is for sale? They have a clear path to profitability, booming growth, and a massive and mission driven founding team. They could

by nbardy 10mo ago

Why are you assuming Anthropic is for sale? They have a clear path to profitability, booming growth, and a massive and mission driven founding team. They could make more money keeping control of the company and have control.

graemep 10mo ago
Assuming by "they" you mean current shareholders (who include Google and Amazon and VCs) if they are selling at least in part, why would at least some of them not be willing to sell their entire stakes? > They could make more money keeping control of the company and have control. It depends on how much they can sell for.
disgruntledphd2 10mo ago
> They have a clear path to profitability I'd love to see evidence for such a thing, because it's not clear to me at all that this is the case. I personally think they're the best of the model providers but not sure if any foundation model companies (pure play) have a path to profitability.
- JohnnyMarcone 10mo ago
  What do you mean by pure play? Claude code alone is 1B revenue. It's not just the API they make money on. https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-acquires-bun-as-claude-code-reaches-usd1b-milestone https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-acquires-bun-as-cla...
  - tapoxi 10mo ago
    But there's no moat around these models, they're all interchangeable and leapfrogging each other at a decent pace. Gemini could get much better tomorrow and their entire customer base could switch without issue.
    - oldpersonintx2 10mo ago
      [dead]
    - apercu 10mo ago
      And, if your revenue is $1B but your costs are $2B it only lasts until the music stops....
      - dwaltrip 10mo ago
        I don’t think they are losing money on inference. Model training, sure. But that will slow down at some point.
        blinding-streak 10mo ago
        Why do you think so? Seems like the space is fiercely competitive, I would expect it to get more expensive.
      - aurareturn 10mo ago
        How many times are people going to repeat this lazy statement? If claude code's revenue grows faster than cost, it will become profitable.
        apercu 10mo ago
        "If claude code's revenue grows faster than cost, it will become profitable." No shit?
    - epiccoleman 10mo ago
      I think Claude Code is the moat (though I definitely recognize it's a pretty shallow moat). I don't want to switch to Codex or whatever the Gemini CLI is, I like Claude Code and I've gotten used to how it works. Again, I know that's a shallow moat - agents just aren't that complex from a pure code perspective, and there are already tools that you can use to proxy Claude Code's requests out to different models. But at least in my own experience there is a definite stickiness to Claude that I probably won't bother to overcome if your model is 1.1x better. I pay for Google Business or whatever it's called primarily to maintain my vanity email and I get some level of Gemini usage for free, and I barely touch it, even though I'm hearing good things about it. (If anything I'm convincing myself to give Gemini a closer look, but I don't think that undermines my overarching (though slightly soft) point).
  - wqaatwt 10mo ago
    Which is not a lot at all compared to their cost and especially the valuation discussed here.
  - raw_anon_1111 10mo ago
    And the same question I always ask. Are they profitable (no), Is Claude Code even running at a marginal profit? (who knows) Is the marginal profit large enough to pay for continued R&D to stay competitive (no) Does Claude Code have a sustainable advantage over what Amazon, Microsoft and Google can do in this space using their incumbency advantage and actual profits and using their own infrastructure?
  - disgruntledphd2 10mo ago
    > What do you mean by pure play? They just sell tokens, essentially. Much like Open AI but very different from Google or Microsoft, who make their money elsewhere.
jbs789 10mo ago
They are selling, to public equity investors, because they can get a better price that way than selling to another company!
Keyframe 10mo ago
Why are you assuming Anthropic is for sale? They're preparing for IPO?
deleted 10mo ago
[deleted]
parapatelsukh 10mo ago
signed D. Amodei lmao
solumunus 10mo ago
We’re not assuming anything, this whole post is about them doing an IPO…
UpsideDownRide 10mo ago
That's not clear at all, at best your statement is controversial if not outright dubious.

by nbardy 10mo ago

graemep 10mo ago

Assuming by "they" you mean current shareholders (who include Google and Amazon and VCs) if they are selling at least in part, why would at least some of them not be willing to sell their entire stakes? > They could make more money keeping control of the company and have control. It depends on how much they can sell for.

disgruntledphd2 10mo ago

> They have a clear path to profitability I'd love to see evidence for such a thing, because it's not clear to me at all that this is the case. I personally think they're the best of the model providers but not sure if any foundation model companies (pure play) have a path to profitability.

JohnnyMarcone 10mo ago
What do you mean by pure play? Claude code alone is 1B revenue. It's not just the API they make money on. https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-acquires-bun-as-claude-code-reaches-usd1b-milestone https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-acquires-bun-as-cla...
- tapoxi 10mo ago
  But there's no moat around these models, they're all interchangeable and leapfrogging each other at a decent pace. Gemini could get much better tomorrow and their entire customer base could switch without issue.
  - oldpersonintx2 10mo ago
    [dead]
  - apercu 10mo ago
    And, if your revenue is $1B but your costs are $2B it only lasts until the music stops....
    - dwaltrip 10mo ago
      I don’t think they are losing money on inference. Model training, sure. But that will slow down at some point.
      - blinding-streak 10mo ago
        Why do you think so? Seems like the space is fiercely competitive, I would expect it to get more expensive.
    - aurareturn 10mo ago
      How many times are people going to repeat this lazy statement? If claude code's revenue grows faster than cost, it will become profitable.
      - apercu 10mo ago
        "If claude code's revenue grows faster than cost, it will become profitable." No shit?
  - epiccoleman 10mo ago
    I think Claude Code is the moat (though I definitely recognize it's a pretty shallow moat). I don't want to switch to Codex or whatever the Gemini CLI is, I like Claude Code and I've gotten used to how it works. Again, I know that's a shallow moat - agents just aren't that complex from a pure code perspective, and there are already tools that you can use to proxy Claude Code's requests out to different models. But at least in my own experience there is a definite stickiness to Claude that I probably won't bother to overcome if your model is 1.1x better. I pay for Google Business or whatever it's called primarily to maintain my vanity email and I get some level of Gemini usage for free, and I barely touch it, even though I'm hearing good things about it. (If anything I'm convincing myself to give Gemini a closer look, but I don't think that undermines my overarching (though slightly soft) point).
- wqaatwt 10mo ago
  Which is not a lot at all compared to their cost and especially the valuation discussed here.
- raw_anon_1111 10mo ago
  And the same question I always ask. Are they profitable (no), Is Claude Code even running at a marginal profit? (who knows) Is the marginal profit large enough to pay for continued R&D to stay competitive (no) Does Claude Code have a sustainable advantage over what Amazon, Microsoft and Google can do in this space using their incumbency advantage and actual profits and using their own infrastructure?
- disgruntledphd2 10mo ago
  > What do you mean by pure play? They just sell tokens, essentially. Much like Open AI but very different from Google or Microsoft, who make their money elsewhere.

jbs789 10mo ago

They are selling, to public equity investors, because they can get a better price that way than selling to another company!

Keyframe 10mo ago

Why are you assuming Anthropic is for sale? They're preparing for IPO?

deleted 10mo ago

[deleted]

parapatelsukh 10mo ago

signed D. Amodei lmao

solumunus 10mo ago

We’re not assuming anything, this whole post is about them doing an IPO…

UpsideDownRide 10mo ago

That's not clear at all, at best your statement is controversial if not outright dubious.