19 ms·

We're in a recession.

pinkmuffinere 10mo ago
Someone please tell the stock market, I moved my investments to be more risk averse and it hurts to watch the green line go up.
- wetpaws 10mo ago
  Stock market is not the economy
- outside1234 10mo ago
  The market can stay insane longer than you can stay insolvent. Also, its possible that the market thinks job losses are good (aka that AI is replacing jobs)
  - reactordev 10mo ago
    The brutal truth… Stocks go up, wages and income go down, things keep on keeping on because AI has quietly replaced you.
    - jvanderbot 10mo ago
      First time?
    - iwontberude 10mo ago
      Except in reality this isn’t happening outside of press releases. God y’all drank the koolaid.
- thatfrenchguy 10mo ago
  There is generally no point in doing this, keep a constant asset allocation that match your risk appetite, otherwise you're just playing the casino.
  - caminante 10mo ago
    Timing the market is bad, but I'm reading "risk averse" as selling equities and buying bonds. The problem is that this recent equities run has been extra terrible for more conservative 60/40 portfolios [0]. [0] https://www.morningstar.com/economy/6040-portfolio-150-year-markets-stress-test https://www.morningstar.com/economy/6040-portfolio-150-year-...
    - dboreham 10mo ago
      > selling equities and buying bonds There's an intermediate option: sell high P/E stocks and buy lower P/E stocks with dividend paying history. There are ETFs designed for this purpose too.
      - tossandthrow 10mo ago
        That is also what I read in going risk averse. In particular bulking up in EM, EU, and small cap. And slimming down in us large cap.
      - caminante 10mo ago
        Uhhh...you're describing something like QAI? [0] And you're going to short a portfolio of TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, NFLX, AMD...? That's crazy. [0] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QAI/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QAI/
        pinkmuffinere 10mo ago
        I am indeed short TSLA (or rather, am taking an inverse position), and have greatly reduced my exposure to NVDA, AMZN, META, MSFT, and AAPL. I keep some exposure to GOOGL, NFLX, AMD, because I believe they are going to "win" in their industry in the long run. I plan to keep exposure to them for like 10+ years. I have a blog post about the inverse TSLA position here: https://bagelpour.wordpress.com/2025/11/30/taking-an-inverse-position-on-tesla/ https://bagelpour.wordpress.com/2025/11/30/taking-an-inverse...
- anonymars 10mo ago
  They say time in the market generally beats timing the market
- alistairSH 10mo ago
  Almost all of the gains on SP500 are from 7 stocks - I'll let you guess which 7. The market overall is nowhere near as exuberant. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/24/sp500-stock-market-tech-nvidia/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/24/sp500-sto...
- stego-tech 10mo ago
  You and me both, but working poors like us should be investing for long-term gains, not short-term returns. I put my money into bonds and international indices because I want to be better protected when the AI CAPEX bubble pops here, but I have no idea when that’ll happen. We can’t time the market, but we can protect the scraps we’ve accumulated at least.
QuercusMax 10mo ago
I saw HUGE ramen displays yesterday at Safeway, including some of the less common flavors like blue (Soy Sauce, formerly "Oriental") and yellow (Creamy Chicken). I can't find the blog post from the last major recession where people were talking about all the crazy flavors you only see when the economy is REAL bad.
- bluedino 10mo ago
  I was always taking noodle bowls to work. Fill with water, microwave, enjoy at my desk. A dollar or two. Couldn't believe how many people would go to the sushi restaurant at the base of the building and spend $25 on lunch a couple days a week. Yikes.
  - foogazi 10mo ago
    > Fill with water, microwave, enjoy at my desk Getting lunch with coworkers once in a while doesn’t hurt
    - bluedino 10mo ago
      Sure. And there's also shared lunchroom areas you can take your own lunch to.
  - kulahan 10mo ago
    It's not nearly as filling, but I saw a character on TV smashing up their noodles and pouring in the powder, shaking the bag, and eating them like popcorn. I've become incredibly addicted.
    - potato3732842 10mo ago
      Prepare it and eat it per the instructions and it's infinitely more filling. Also there's fairly wide variance in calorie count brand to brand for the same size square, not sure why.
      - 10mo ago
micromacrofoot 10mo ago
objectively we're not yet, but things are certainly weird
- mistrial9 10mo ago
  bifurcation, and more
- andrewstuart2 10mo ago
  Objectively, I'm not sure we can reliably say any longer, given how much pressure has been put on formerly objective reporting agencies to conform to this administration's narrative.
  - micromacrofoot 10mo ago
    we can, there's a specific definition that hadn't been met yet
rvz 10mo ago
We were already in one following the tech correction since Nov 2021. [0] The problem here is some waited for too long to be told we are now in a recession, then some politicians tried to redefine it. But that is nothing compared to what will happen in the next 5 - 10 years. Nothing goes up forever. The only hint is that we need to prepare before 2030. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29508238 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29508238
- anonymars 10mo ago
  Not for nothing--I'm no optimist either--but, by what measure? I see at most one quarter of negative GDP[0]. The US market is up at least 50% since then. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1OmuJ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1OmuJ
- newsoftheday 10mo ago
  Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude and Grok all said no, we're not in a recession just now when I asked them.
newsoftheday 10mo ago
Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude and Grok all said no, we're not in a recession just now when I asked them.

Someone please tell the stock market, I moved my investments to be more risk averse and it hurts to watch the green line go up.

wetpaws 10mo ago
Stock market is not the economy
outside1234 10mo ago
The market can stay insane longer than you can stay insolvent. Also, its possible that the market thinks job losses are good (aka that AI is replacing jobs)
- reactordev 10mo ago
  The brutal truth… Stocks go up, wages and income go down, things keep on keeping on because AI has quietly replaced you.
  - jvanderbot 10mo ago
    First time?
  - iwontberude 10mo ago
    Except in reality this isn’t happening outside of press releases. God y’all drank the koolaid.
thatfrenchguy 10mo ago
There is generally no point in doing this, keep a constant asset allocation that match your risk appetite, otherwise you're just playing the casino.
- caminante 10mo ago
  Timing the market is bad, but I'm reading "risk averse" as selling equities and buying bonds. The problem is that this recent equities run has been extra terrible for more conservative 60/40 portfolios [0]. [0] https://www.morningstar.com/economy/6040-portfolio-150-year-markets-stress-test https://www.morningstar.com/economy/6040-portfolio-150-year-...
  - dboreham 10mo ago
    > selling equities and buying bonds There's an intermediate option: sell high P/E stocks and buy lower P/E stocks with dividend paying history. There are ETFs designed for this purpose too.
    - tossandthrow 10mo ago
      That is also what I read in going risk averse. In particular bulking up in EM, EU, and small cap. And slimming down in us large cap.
    - caminante 10mo ago
      Uhhh...you're describing something like QAI? [0] And you're going to short a portfolio of TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, NFLX, AMD...? That's crazy. [0] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QAI/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QAI/
      - pinkmuffinere 10mo ago
        I am indeed short TSLA (or rather, am taking an inverse position), and have greatly reduced my exposure to NVDA, AMZN, META, MSFT, and AAPL. I keep some exposure to GOOGL, NFLX, AMD, because I believe they are going to "win" in their industry in the long run. I plan to keep exposure to them for like 10+ years. I have a blog post about the inverse TSLA position here: https://bagelpour.wordpress.com/2025/11/30/taking-an-inverse-position-on-tesla/ https://bagelpour.wordpress.com/2025/11/30/taking-an-inverse...
anonymars 10mo ago
They say time in the market generally beats timing the market
alistairSH 10mo ago
Almost all of the gains on SP500 are from 7 stocks - I'll let you guess which 7. The market overall is nowhere near as exuberant. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/24/sp500-stock-market-tech-nvidia/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/11/24/sp500-sto...
stego-tech 10mo ago
You and me both, but working poors like us should be investing for long-term gains, not short-term returns. I put my money into bonds and international indices because I want to be better protected when the AI CAPEX bubble pops here, but I have no idea when that’ll happen. We can’t time the market, but we can protect the scraps we’ve accumulated at least.

QuercusMax 10mo ago

I saw HUGE ramen displays yesterday at Safeway, including some of the less common flavors like blue (Soy Sauce, formerly "Oriental") and yellow (Creamy Chicken). I can't find the blog post from the last major recession where people were talking about all the crazy flavors you only see when the economy is REAL bad.

bluedino 10mo ago
I was always taking noodle bowls to work. Fill with water, microwave, enjoy at my desk. A dollar or two. Couldn't believe how many people would go to the sushi restaurant at the base of the building and spend $25 on lunch a couple days a week. Yikes.
- foogazi 10mo ago
  > Fill with water, microwave, enjoy at my desk Getting lunch with coworkers once in a while doesn’t hurt
  - bluedino 10mo ago
    Sure. And there's also shared lunchroom areas you can take your own lunch to.
- kulahan 10mo ago
  It's not nearly as filling, but I saw a character on TV smashing up their noodles and pouring in the powder, shaking the bag, and eating them like popcorn. I've become incredibly addicted.
  - potato3732842 10mo ago
    Prepare it and eat it per the instructions and it's infinitely more filling. Also there's fairly wide variance in calorie count brand to brand for the same size square, not sure why.
    - 10mo ago

micromacrofoot 10mo ago

objectively we're not yet, but things are certainly weird

mistrial9 10mo ago
bifurcation, and more
andrewstuart2 10mo ago
Objectively, I'm not sure we can reliably say any longer, given how much pressure has been put on formerly objective reporting agencies to conform to this administration's narrative.
- micromacrofoot 10mo ago
  we can, there's a specific definition that hadn't been met yet

rvz 10mo ago

We were already in one following the tech correction since Nov 2021. [0] The problem here is some waited for too long to be told we are now in a recession, then some politicians tried to redefine it. But that is nothing compared to what will happen in the next 5 - 10 years. Nothing goes up forever. The only hint is that we need to prepare before 2030. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29508238 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29508238

anonymars 10mo ago
Not for nothing--I'm no optimist either--but, by what measure? I see at most one quarter of negative GDP[0]. The US market is up at least 50% since then. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1OmuJ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1OmuJ
newsoftheday 10mo ago
Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude and Grok all said no, we're not in a recession just now when I asked them.

newsoftheday 10mo ago

Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude and Grok all said no, we're not in a recession just now when I asked them.