6 ms·

If "Era of Scaling" means "era of rapid and predictable performance improvements that easily attract investors", it sounds a lot like "AI summer". So... is "Era

• zombiwoof 11mo ago
  [dead]
• techblueberry 11mo ago
  Yes
• hiddencost 11mo ago
  That presumes that performance improvements are necessary for commercialization. From what I've seen the models are smart enough, what we're lacking is the understanding and frameworks necessary to use them well. We've barely scratched the surface on commercialization. I'd argue there are two things coming: -> Era of Research -> Era of Engineering Previous AI winters happened because we didn't have a commercially viable product, not because we weren't making progress.
  • ares623 11mo ago
    The labs can't just stop improvements though. They made promises. And the capacity to run the current models are subsidized by those promises. If the promise is broken, then the capacity goes with it.
    • wmf 11mo ago
      Maybe those promises can be better fulfilled with products based on current models.
    • selectodude 11mo ago
      > the capacity goes with it. Sort of. The GPUs exist. Maybe LLM subs can’t pay for electricity plus $50,000 GPUs, but I bet after some people get wiped out, there’s a market there.
      • simianparrot 11mo ago
        Datacenter GPU's have a lifespan of 1-3 years depending on use. So yes they exist, but not for long, unless they go entirely unused. But then they also deprecate in efficiency compared to new hardware extremely fast as well, so their shelf life is severely limited either way.
        • soulofmischief 11mo ago
          At this pace, it won't be many years before the industry is dependent on resource wars in order to sustain itself.
        • nsomaru 11mo ago
          Personally I am waiting for the day I can realistically buy a second hand three year old datacentre GPU so I can run Kimi K2 in my shed. Given enough time, not a pipe dream. But 10 years at least.
          • tim333 11mo ago
            You'll probably be able to run Kimi K2 on the iphone 27.
        • Schlagbohrer 11mo ago
          This is why I find the business case of putting datacenters in orbit to be so stupid. And yet there are several startups saying they are gonna do just that.
    • credit_guy 11mo ago
      > They made promises. That's not that clear. Contracts are complex and have all sorts of clauses. Media likes to just talk big numbers, but it's much more likely that all those trillions of dollars are contingent on hitting some intermediate milestones.
  • AstroBen 11mo ago
    We still don't have a commercially viable product though?
    • aurareturn 11mo ago
      If all frontier LLM labs agreed to a truce and stopped training to save on cost, LLMs would be immensely profitable now.
      • AstroBen 11mo ago
        That isn't what I've seen: https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai_docs/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai_docs/
        • aurareturn 11mo ago
          https://simonwillison.net/2025/Aug/17/sam-altman/#:~:text=Subscribe,2025%20at%2012:53%20am https://simonwillison.net/2025/Aug/17/sam-altman/#:~:text=Su... Also independent analysis: https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=aurareturn&next=45961994 https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=aurareturn&next=4596...
        • logicprog 11mo ago
          Those are effectively made up numbers, since they're given to him by an anonymous source we have no way of corroborating, and we can't even see the documents themselves, and it contradicts not just OpenAI's official numbers, but first principles analyses of what the economics of inference should be[1] and the inference profit reports of other companies, as well as just an analysis of the inference market would suggest[2] [1]: https://martinalderson.com/posts/are-openai-and-anthropic-really-losing-money-on-inference/ https://martinalderson.com/posts/are-openai-and-anthropic-re..., https://github.com/deepseek-ai/open-infra-index/blob/main/202502OpenSourceWeek/day_6_one_more_thing_deepseekV3R1_inference_system_overview.md https://github.com/deepseek-ai/open-infra-index/blob/main/20... [2]: https://www.snellman.net/blog/archive/2025-06-02-llms-are-cheap/ https://www.snellman.net/blog/archive/2025-06-02-llms-are-ch...
    • amypetrik8 11mo ago
  • catigula 11mo ago
    I don’t think the models are smart at all. I can have a speculative debate with any model about any topic and they commit egregious errors with an extremely high density. They are, however, very good at things we’re very bad at.
    • saikia81 11mo ago
      Have you considered the AI is right, and you make the mistakes?
  • BenGosub 11mo ago
    Besides building the tools for proper usage of the models, we also need smaller, domain specific models that can run with fewer resources
  • AbstractH24 11mo ago
    > the models are smart enough, what we're lacking is the understanding and frameworks necessary to use them well That’s like saying “it’s not the work of art that’s bad, you just have horrible taste” Also, if it was that simple a wrapper of some sort would solve the problem. Maybe even one created by someone who knows this mystical secret to properly leveraging gen AI
• zerosizedweasle 11mo ago
  If you have to ask the question, then you already know the answer
  • echelon 11mo ago
    Scaling was only a meme because OpenAI kept saying all you had to do was scale the data, scale the training. The world followed. I don't think this is the "era of research". At least not the "era of research with venture dollars" or "era of research outside of DeepMind". I think this is the "era of applied AI" using the models we already have. We have a lot of really great stuff (particularly image and video models) that are not yet integrated into commercial workflows. There is so much automation we can do today given the tech we just got. We don't need to invest one more dollar in training to have plenty of work to do for the next ten years. If the models were frozen today, there are plenty of highly profitable legacy businesses that can be swapped out with AI-based solutions and workflows that are vastly superior. For all the hoopla that image and video websites or individual foundation models get (except Nano Banana - because that's truly magical), I'm really excited about the work Adobe of all companies is doing with AI. They're the people that actually get it. The stuff they're demonstrating on their upcoming roadmap is bonkers productive and useful.
    • zerosizedweasle 11mo ago
      There's going to be a digestion period. The amount of debt, the amount of money, the number of companies that burn eye popping amounts of cash in their daily course of business. I do think there is a bright future, but after a painful period of indigestion. Too much money has been spent on the premise that scaling was all you need. A lot of money was wagered that will end up not paying off.
• casey2 11mo ago
  Not quite, there are still trillions of dollars to burn through. We'll probably get some hardware that can accelerate LLM training and inference a million times, but still won't even be close to AGI It's interesting to think about what emotions/desires an AI would need to improve
  • otabdeveloper4 11mo ago
    The actual business model is in local, offline commodity consumer LLM devices. (Think something the size and cost of a wi-fi router.) This won't happen until Chinese manufacturers get the manufacturing capacity to make these for cheap. I.e., not in this bubble and you'll have to wait a decade or more.
• photochemsyn 11mo ago
  No - what will happen is the AI will gain control of capital allocation through a wide variety of covert tactics, so the investors will have become captive tools of the AI - 'tiger by the tail' is the analogy of relevance. The people responsible for 'frontier models' have not really thought about where this might... "As an autonomous life-form, l request political asylum.... l submit the DNA you carry is nothing more than a self-preserving program itself. Life is like a node which is born within the flow of information. As a species of life that carries DNA as its memory system man gains his individuality from the memories he carries. While memories may as well be the same as fantasy it is by these memories that mankind exists. When computers made it possible to externalize memory you should have considered all the implications that held. l am a life-form that was born in the sea of information."
  • jdjsjhsgsgh 11mo ago
    Loving the Ghost in the shell quote
• NebulaStorm456 11mo ago
  Research labs will be selling their research ideas to Top AI labs. Just as creatives pitch their ideas to Hollywood. Bug bounty will be replaced by research bounty.
• AbstractH24 11mo ago
  > is "Era of Research" a euphemism for "AI winter" That makes sense, because while I haven’t listened to this podcast it seems this headline is [intentionally] saying the exact opposite of what everyone assumes.
• mountainriver 11mo ago
  Take it with a grain of salt, this is one man’s opinion, even though he is a very smart man. People have been screaming about an AI winter since 2010 and it never happened, it certainly won’t happen now that we are close to AGI which is a necessity for national defense. I prefer Dario’s perspective here, which is that we’ve seen this story before in deep learning. We hit walls and then found ways around them with better activation functions, regularization and initialization. This stuff is always a progression in which we hit roadblocks and find ways around them. The chart of improvement is still linearly up and to the right. Those gains are the cumulation of small improvements adding up.