4 ms·
An investigation into Substrate
- bix6 1y agoFascinating
- ChrisArchitect 1y agoRelated: Can Substrate disrupt ASML using particle acceleration? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/technology/can-a-start-up-make-computer-chips-cheaper-than-the-industrys-giants.html?unlocked_article_code=1.xE8.CukP.AIVImr6--z1y&smid=url-share https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/technology/can-a-start-up... (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45732431 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45732431) See also: Return to Silicon Valley https://substrate.com/our-purpose https://substrate.com/our-purpose (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45741489 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45741489)
- rebolek 1y agoIf there's a question in title, the answer is usually NO.
- jjtheblunt 1y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
- IlikeKitties 1y ago[flagged]
- chasebank 1y agoSteal money from rich people, you typically end up in prison.
- thaumasiotes 1y agoIt worked for Robin Hood, mostly.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- cool_man_bob 1y ago> The founder is known con-artist involved in such other things as solving nuclear fusion and stealing $2.5M in a Kickstarter scam. Haha, am I still supposed to believe VC’s are competent, intelligent people who deserve their stature when they fall for scams that should be more obvious than a Nigerian prince scam.
- stri8ed 1y agoIs it fair to characterize a founder of a failed startup as a con man? I.e. did he make claims that were factually untrue, and intentionally deceived investors?
- FromTheFirstIn 1y agoYes! He did, so it is.
- embedding-shape 1y agoWhat investors were intentionally deceived and what were the lies specifically? I saw something about a Kickstarter, but it's trickier as there is no promise of delivered products, it ends up being an donation basically, although Kickstarter try to make that intentionally vague.
- Arainach 1y ago> There is no promise of delivered product There absolutely is a promise. Even if you manage to legally find a way to not get sued, taking advantage of the fact that everyone who gave you money believed it was a promise is still scamming them.
- embedding-shape 1y agoIsn't the whole thing (or two) with Kickstarter is that if it's not funded, everyone gets their money back and if it's funded, the creator tries to deliver the goals according to the timeline but if they don't, they're not held liable for that? So if for some reason the creator run out of money before they could send actual products, you as a donator don't have the right to get your money back? Maybe I misunderstood the whole concept of Kickstarter.
- impossiblefork 1y agoThe rah-rah stuff on their homepage really put me off, as a European. I didn't expect it to be fraud though-- I thought it was rubbish, but that they actually had something somewhat useful, somehow, since I thought Peter Thiel was smart. There are some strange things in this writeup-- I don't think it's clear that the machine they claim to intend to sell is supposed to be a direct writing machine, I assumed it was supposed to be like EUV but with X-rays and some kind of special x-ray tolerant photoresist, but the identity of the founders is at least quite damning, the electrostatic chuck thing might be damning I guess, unless there's some special concern. I assumed that even if it were sensible, it wouldn't work well enough, with damage to the resist or something else that manufacturers would find unacceptable, but this isn't my area, so I can't really judge.
- rebolek 1y agoI don't know if he's smart. He's certainly lucky. And based on his lunatic ravings about antichrist or whatever, he's IMO borderline insane. Also, he's disgusting being.
- layer8 1y ago> I thought Peter Thiel was smart. Maybe reconsider: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/10/peter-thiel-lectures-antichrist https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/10/peter-thiel-...
- impossiblefork 1y agoYes, but I thought that that didn't represent his actual beliefs but was lies or signalling for the sake of other people similar to himself.
- fabian2k 1y agoI felt slightly more comfortable when I thought the really rich people were just cynically promoting views that benefitted them in some way. It is disconcerting to realize that a lot of them truly have batshit crazy and extreme views.
- ramshanker 1y agoI have been thinking, if the "generate soft xray for lithography by particle accelerators" is remotely feasible as being claimed by substrate. I remember reading some chineese startup / university also trying to do so. ASML is best position to execute this. They have the money, cashflow and talent, R&D culture all available. ASML may very well be the one actually doing this.
- SilverElfin 1y agoIt’s possible ASML is the best to do this. But the fundamental research behind ASML’s modern tech is actually from a DARPA project if you go back far enough. While certainly ASML did years of work to bring the tech to commercial readiness, I wonder if they’re able to completely rethink their approach or if they’re too invested in one way of doing things.
- embedding-shape 1y ago> But the fundamental research behind ASML’s modern tech is actually from a DARPA project if you go back far enough Trying to trace things like this is a fools errand though. Trace things back further than that, the microscope was invented in Europe, and further back the magnifying glass somewhere in the Middle East/Mediterranean. You'll just stop wherever it's convenient for the point you're trying to make. Ultimately, what was available + what was known was put into practice by ASML and they're the ones best at executing that thing right now today, and some things they're the only ones able to too, which isn't very too common. But I guess only time will tell if they can use whatever they've built and make it into something even more.
- bigyabai 1y agoFWIW, I think you could argue that modern high-yield EULV is a wholly Taiwanese invention. For all of America's DARPA prowess, Intel couldn't even play second-fiddle to TSMC's worst fab nodes.
- SilverElfin 1y ago
- baobabKoodaa 1y ago> Would you believe that the founder—who could not make an alarm clock for $70 M, but who has allegedly beaten ASML for under $100 M—has also found time to solve nuclear fusion? Oof. Before this point in the article I wasn't sure if it's fraud, but comparing the money raised for a (failed) alarm clock vs money raised for supposedly-successful ASML competitor was a good of putting things in perspective. And the nuclear fusion thing... oh god.
- dang 1y agoRecent and related: US startup Substrate announces chipmaking tool that it says will rival ASML - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45745536 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45745536 - Oct 2025 (4 comments) Can Substrate disrupt ASML using particle acceleration? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45732431 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45732431 - Oct 2025 (11 comments)
- embedding-shape 1y agoIt seems clear that the founder's record has some significant failures, but thinking the other way, are there other founders who've been successful today after similarly significant past failures? "Past performance isn't indicative of future results" or however it goes. It's easy to get stuck judging people based on their history, so you easily skip over other details that might make their current efforts different, we all think (hope?) we grow, meaning so does this founder, despite past failures. I'm not trying to say that this is a signal either way, but I wish others don't judge me in the same basic way in the future, as I too have failed in the past (although not about solving nuclear fusion) but think I'm getting better every day. Of course, people will judge me and others either way, but it seems more reasonable to not not just jump into history first, and focus on other details that actually evaluate the ideas themselves.
- muglug 1y agoThey're being advised by Kyrsten Sinema, which is another big warning sign — similar to Theranos's board full of retired politicians.
- Joel_Mckay 1y agoWafer technology like Directed Self-Assembly does exist ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directed_assembly_of_micro-_and_nano-structures https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directed_assembly_of_micro-_an... ), but did not have defect rates low enough to build complex chips. Also, process fabs are volume driven technologies, and focus on getting as much product out the door as quickly as possible. A lot of technologies will never be compatible with that optimization in a business context. Samsung was sort of the exception to this trend, and took huge risks that paid off =3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCWDzWG1BcI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCWDzWG1BcI
- georgeburdell 1y agoI was a process engineer for a decade. A lithography machine is one of the less interesting things that a compact particle accelerator would be useful for. They could sell 1000X more if they just focused on the accelerator, and medical diagnostic companies would buy them by the thousands
- paulsutter 1y agoHere's a sober analysis based on actual experts with access to more information than what is publicly released: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/how-to-kill-2-monopolies-with-1-tool https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/how-to-kill-2-monopoli... Skeptics welcome to review the following section: > These are extraordinary claims and thus demand extraordinary evidence. Let’s take them one-by-one: And here is their conclusion: > Naysayers will point out a million reasons why this is improbable, difficult, etc. - and they are mostly correct. There is a big difference between lab-scale and industrialized, high-volume tools. Substrate itself realizes this and agrees they are in for a lot of development and scaling pain. Still, they have at least developed some impressive capabilities on the most complex part of the process (litho) in a short amount of time (2-3 years).