5 ms·

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/re

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.

conartist6 1y ago
This. This sentence reached off the page and hit me in the face. It only just then became obvious to me that to them it's a question of when, in large part because of the MS deal. Their next big move in the chess game will be to "declare" AGI.
- baconbrand 1y ago
  This is phenomenally conceited on both companies’ parts. Wow.
  - jdiff 1y ago
    Don't worry, I'm sure we can just keep handing out subprime mortgages like candy forever. Infinite growth, here we come!
- fooqux 1y ago
  I think some of this is just the typical bluster of company press releases / earnings reports. Can't ever show weakness or the shareholders will leave. Can't ever show doubt or the stock price will drop. Nevertheless, I've been wondering of late. How will we know when AGI is accomplished? In the books or movies, it's always been handwaved or described in a way that made it seem like it was obvious to all. For example, in The Matrix there's the line "We marveled at our own magnificence as we gave birth to AI." It was a very obvious event that nobody could question in that story. In reality though? I'm starting to think it's just going to be more of a gradual thing, like increasing the resolution of our TVs until you can't tell it's not a window any longer.
  - marcosdumay 1y ago
    > How will we know when AGI is accomplished? It's certainly not an specific thing that can be accomplished. AGI is a useful name for a badly defined concept, but any objective application of it (like in a contract) is just stupid things done by people that could barely be described as having the natural variety of GI.
- port3000 1y ago
  "We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it." - Sam Altman, Jan 2025 'as we have traditionally understood it' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections#:~:text=We%20believe%20that%2C%20in%202025,great%2C%20broadly%2Ddistributed%20outcomes. https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections#:~:text=We%20believe%...
healsdata 1y ago
> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-a-financial-definition-of-agi-report/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...
- lupire 1y ago
  So Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Saudi Aramco are AGI
- raydiak 1y ago
  That's a pretty blatant public admission that corporations fundamentally regard intelligent entities as profit sources.
- conartist6 1y ago
  So what, there just won't be a word for general intelligence anymore, you know, in the philosophical sense?
  - cogman10 1y ago
    lol, this is "autopilot" and "full self driving" all over again. Just redefine the terms into something that's easy to accomplish but far from the definition of the terms/words/promises.
    - conartist6 1y ago
      I know, they could get a big banner that says MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.
      - cogman10 1y ago
        Apparently the US military is for sale, so they probably could hang it up on a battleship even.
  - 1y ago
empath75 1y ago
It's quite possible that GI and thus AGI does not actually exist. Though now the paper the other day by all those heavy hitters in the industry makes more sense in this context.
- aeve890 1y ago
  >It's quite possible that GI and thus AGI does not actually exist. Aren't we humans supposed to have GI? Maybe you're conflating AGI and ASI.
  - empath75 1y ago
    > Aren't we humans supposed to have GI Show me where GI is and how to measure it in a way that isn't just "it's however humans think"
  - mr_toad 1y ago
    > Aren't we humans supposed to have GI? Supposed by humans, who might not be aware of their own limitations.
- llelouch 1y ago
  what paper?
rvz 1y ago
The criteria changes more times than the weather forecast as it depends on the definition of "AGI".
skepticATX 1y ago
I think the more interesting question is who will be on the panel? A group of ex frontier lab employees? You could declare AGI today. A more diverse group across academia and industry might actually have some backbone and be able to stand up to OpenAI.
qgin 1y ago
This makes me feel that the extremely short AGI timelines might be less likely. To sign this deal today, presumably you wouldn’t bother if AGI is just around the corner? Maybe I’m reading too much into it.
- signatoremo 1y ago
  OpenAI wants to be free from MS. The cost is 27% of ownership, which is about $135B currently, plus IP access until 2032. Considered MS invested about $10B initially, that’s a big concession on the part of OpenAI. OpenAI’s Jakob Pachocki said on a call today that he expects that AI is “less than a decade away from superintelligence”
- qnleigh 1y ago
  Or if one party has a different timeline than the other...
adonese 1y ago
Obligatory the office line: "I just wanted you to know that you can't just say the word "AGI" and expect anything to happen. - Michael Scott: I didn't say it. I declared it
mossTechnician 1y ago
If I remember correctly, Microsoft was previously promised ownership of every pre-AGI asset created by OpenAI. Now they are being promised ownership of things post-AGI as well: Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI... To me, this suggests a further dilution of the term "AGI."
- ViscountPenguin 1y ago
  To be honest, I think this is somewhat assymetric, and kind of implies that openai are truer "Believers" than Microsoft. If you believe in a hard takeoff, than ownership of assets post agi is pretty much meaningless, however, it protects Microsoft from an early declaration of agi by openai.

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.

conartist6 1y ago

This. This sentence reached off the page and hit me in the face. It only just then became obvious to me that to them it's a question of when, in large part because of the MS deal. Their next big move in the chess game will be to "declare" AGI.

baconbrand 1y ago
This is phenomenally conceited on both companies’ parts. Wow.
- jdiff 1y ago
  Don't worry, I'm sure we can just keep handing out subprime mortgages like candy forever. Infinite growth, here we come!
fooqux 1y ago
I think some of this is just the typical bluster of company press releases / earnings reports. Can't ever show weakness or the shareholders will leave. Can't ever show doubt or the stock price will drop. Nevertheless, I've been wondering of late. How will we know when AGI is accomplished? In the books or movies, it's always been handwaved or described in a way that made it seem like it was obvious to all. For example, in The Matrix there's the line "We marveled at our own magnificence as we gave birth to AI." It was a very obvious event that nobody could question in that story. In reality though? I'm starting to think it's just going to be more of a gradual thing, like increasing the resolution of our TVs until you can't tell it's not a window any longer.
- marcosdumay 1y ago
  > How will we know when AGI is accomplished? It's certainly not an specific thing that can be accomplished. AGI is a useful name for a badly defined concept, but any objective application of it (like in a contract) is just stupid things done by people that could barely be described as having the natural variety of GI.
port3000 1y ago
"We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it." - Sam Altman, Jan 2025 'as we have traditionally understood it' is doing a lot of heavy lifting there https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections#:~:text=We%20believe%20that%2C%20in%202025,great%2C%20broadly%2Ddistributed%20outcomes. https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections#:~:text=We%20believe%...

healsdata 1y ago

> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-a-financial-definition-of-agi-report/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

lupire 1y ago
So Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Saudi Aramco are AGI
raydiak 1y ago
That's a pretty blatant public admission that corporations fundamentally regard intelligent entities as profit sources.
conartist6 1y ago
So what, there just won't be a word for general intelligence anymore, you know, in the philosophical sense?
- cogman10 1y ago
  lol, this is "autopilot" and "full self driving" all over again. Just redefine the terms into something that's easy to accomplish but far from the definition of the terms/words/promises.
  - conartist6 1y ago
    I know, they could get a big banner that says MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.
    - cogman10 1y ago
      Apparently the US military is for sale, so they probably could hang it up on a battleship even.
- 1y ago

empath75 1y ago

It's quite possible that GI and thus AGI does not actually exist. Though now the paper the other day by all those heavy hitters in the industry makes more sense in this context.

aeve890 1y ago
>It's quite possible that GI and thus AGI does not actually exist. Aren't we humans supposed to have GI? Maybe you're conflating AGI and ASI.
- empath75 1y ago
  > Aren't we humans supposed to have GI Show me where GI is and how to measure it in a way that isn't just "it's however humans think"
- mr_toad 1y ago
  > Aren't we humans supposed to have GI? Supposed by humans, who might not be aware of their own limitations.
llelouch 1y ago
what paper?

rvz 1y ago

The criteria changes more times than the weather forecast as it depends on the definition of "AGI".

skepticATX 1y ago

I think the more interesting question is who will be on the panel? A group of ex frontier lab employees? You could declare AGI today. A more diverse group across academia and industry might actually have some backbone and be able to stand up to OpenAI.

qgin 1y ago

This makes me feel that the extremely short AGI timelines might be less likely. To sign this deal today, presumably you wouldn’t bother if AGI is just around the corner? Maybe I’m reading too much into it.

signatoremo 1y ago
OpenAI wants to be free from MS. The cost is 27% of ownership, which is about $135B currently, plus IP access until 2032. Considered MS invested about $10B initially, that’s a big concession on the part of OpenAI. OpenAI’s Jakob Pachocki said on a call today that he expects that AI is “less than a decade away from superintelligence”
qnleigh 1y ago
Or if one party has a different timeline than the other...

adonese 1y ago

Obligatory the office line: "I just wanted you to know that you can't just say the word "AGI" and expect anything to happen. - Michael Scott: I didn't say it. I declared it

mossTechnician 1y ago

If I remember correctly, Microsoft was previously promised ownership of every pre-AGI asset created by OpenAI. Now they are being promised ownership of things post-AGI as well: Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI... To me, this suggests a further dilution of the term "AGI."

ViscountPenguin 1y ago
To be honest, I think this is somewhat assymetric, and kind of implies that openai are truer "Believers" than Microsoft. If you believe in a hard takeoff, than ownership of assets post agi is pretty much meaningless, however, it protects Microsoft from an early declaration of agi by openai.