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This entire argument relies on new EV prices declining like other technologies, but this doesn't seem to be the case. E.g. the Nissan Leaf is ~$30,000 and has

This entire argument relies on new EV prices declining like other technologies, but this doesn't seem to be the case. E.g. the Nissan Leaf is ~$30,000 and has been for almost a decade. (Guess you could make a case with inflation... but nowhere near the technology price curves.)

dangus 1y ago
No, you completely missed the point. The new model is still ~$30,000 but it has better range/charges faster/drives better. That doesn’t really happen as dramatically with gasoline cars. The powertrain and driving experience of a 5 year old gas car isn’t noticeably different than a current one. If you buy a 5 year old EV you might get one that charges slow, doesn’t have a heat pump, has worse battery chemistry, battery health management, and the list goes on. Heck, the Leaf is a perfect example because you’re stuck with chademo fast charging charging instead of CCS or NACS. I wouldn’t touch one with a 9 foot pole unless I planned to exclusively charge at home. Also, don’t take my comment to mean that I think used EVs are a bad choice, many of them can work very well for many years and use cases as long as you are properly informed.
- edbaskerville 1y ago
  This argument seems right to me. Old ICE cars are basically the same as new ones. EVs are getting better quickly, so fast depreciation makes sense. I avoided a used Leaf for exactly the reason you cited...2.5 years ago, and have been very happy with a last-of-its-generation 2023 Chevy Bolt (~ $22K new after tax credit). But if you don't care about new features, e.g., really fast charging, a used Bolt (55kW max) is a great option!
  - idiotsecant 1y ago
    >>Old ICE cars are basically the same as new ones. I'm not sure that's totally true. The rate of change might be lower, but new ICE vehicles have higher efficiency (directly correlating to longer EV range) and are safer, more comfortable, and quieter. I am definitely on the pro-EV side, nearly an evangelist I suppose, but ICE vehicles do improve.
    - seanmcdirmid 1y ago
      How are ICEs quieter than EVs? Are you talking about the artificial noise EVs put out at low speeds so they don't sneak up on people? ICEs have longer range, some of them are really fuel efficient, especially hybrids. But they drive relatively more poorly unless you opt for a sports car that is cramped and expensive. It isn't the worse thing in the world to drive an ICE, but it is noticeably less fun than driving an EV.
      - overfeed 1y ago
        > How are ICEs quieter than EVs? Are you talking about the artificial noise EVs put out at low speeds so they don't sneak up on people? I think your second sentence answers your first. Car noise = tire noise + motor noise. EVs have very low motor noise compared to IC. EVs also tend to have better cabin dampening on average, but that likely has to do with price-band consumer expectations, and not inherent to the method of propulsion.
        seanmcdirmid 1y ago
        You know you can disable that. It might be against the law though, and it isn't the EVs that demand noise, it is the society that demands them not to be silent killers. Even Hybrids have to make this noise when they are running on their electric drive trains. But let's say ICEs were made as quiet, they would be demanded to make noise as well. Also, no one has done anything about tire noise yet, so at high speeds, EVs and ICEs are about the same.
        platevoltage 1y ago
        EVs are also much heavier, which contributes to lower noise as well. You've got a massively heavy battery pack between you and the road.
      - dare944 1y ago
        > How are ICEs quieter than EVs? That wasn't the point being made. The point was that newer ICE cars are quieter than older models, and thus ICE vehicles have improved (at least to some degree) over the same period as EVs.
- mixmastamyk 1y ago
  Indeed, and didn't even mention ~30% inflation over the last five years.
- nwienert 1y ago
  This isn’t what’s happening though. I see Tesla Highland models (<1 year old, current gen) selling at significantly larger depreciations than nearly new gas cars. This holds across other EV manufacturers.
  - dangus 1y ago
    This makes a ton of sense considering the recently expired tax credit. The moment you drive an EV off the lot in September or earlier it’s worth $7,500 less than the normal depreciation. I think if we give the used market a few years without the tax credit it’ll start to look more normal.
    - nwienert 1y ago
      I think that only explains some of it, but definitely not all. The difference between gas models is massive. Look at Audi e trons for example which are regularly hitting 70% depreciation in 3 years with relatively low miles. I think it’s a lot of things: demand is weakening because people are seeing that the attempt to force them on us faltering so we don’t have to switch, trust in reliability is lower, trust in battery durability too. Also I think some of the myths of EVs advantages are being uncovered: the cost of batteries and tires takes a lot of the cost benefits away. EV charging stations are past 50% of gas station costs, when they used to be subsidized to be free. The complexity of battery, and the immensely complex heating and cooling systems means they aren’t as simple as many thought. There’s also environmental stuff - 2010s was peak climate change anxiety, you got a lot of social credit for an EV then, even more so because they were novel. The novelty factor and lack of cultural emphasis on environment both are degrading prices too.
      - labcomputer 1y ago
        e-Trons are definitely among the best deals right now in used EVs, but it's down to a confluence of factors specific to that car: 1. It had fairly good charging, but only so-so range. 250 miles seems to be a big psychological barrier for a lot of people and the e-Tron is on the wrong side of that line. 2. It's a luxury car and should be expected to have luxury car depreciation as a baseline 3. It's a luxury car with luxury car maintenance costs 4. It's a luxury car that had (maybe has) some reliability issues which incur luxury car repair costs 5. Audi had very good lease deals when they were new ("trunk money" was a common phrase) 6. Fuel economy is fairly bad when compared to anything other than an EV pickup All these combine to make it a used car that only appeals to a very specific buyer.
- Marsymars 1y ago
  > That doesn’t really happen as dramatically with gasoline cars. The powertrain and driving experience of a 5 year old gas car isn’t noticeably different than a current one. Depends. I recently went from a manual car to a mild hybrid with an eCVT. Feels pretty different to me.
  - dangus 1y ago
    Hybrids with eCVTs existed 5-15 years ago. You just happened to not be driving one.
    - Marsymars 1y ago
      Er, yeah, but that’s kinda analagous to the situation with EVs - there’s a big difference going from a 2015 Nissan Leaf to a 2025 Models S - there’s not nearly as much of a difference going from a 2015 Models S to a 2025 Model S.
nostrademons 1y ago
It is the case globally. BYD sells EVs starting at $7800 [1][2], and Toyota sells an EV for $15,000 in China [3]. This may also be why Teslas are holding their value better than any other EV. Teslas are usually bought by U.S. consumers, who are forbidden from buying any of the cheaper global EVs by import restrictions. For fleets that buy models that are sold globally, they compete in the global market and are subject to global price declines. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs5h6R2jLUQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs5h6R2jLUQ [2] https://insideevs.com/reviews/769113/byd-seagull-good-video-drive/ https://insideevs.com/reviews/769113/byd-seagull-good-video-... [3] https://motorillustrated.com/toyota-launches-15000-bz3x-its-most-affordable-ev-in-china/149923/ https://motorillustrated.com/toyota-launches-15000-bz3x-its-...
- AnotherGoodName 1y ago
  Tesla's are also mostly made in China now. The Chinese Tesla's are also dropping in price if you live in a country that hasn't got massive tariffs on Chinese made cars which is basically everywhere in the world except North America and Europe. Tesla literally won't sell you a Model S in Australia for example since it's made in the USA and there's no way they can sell it for a reasonable price. It's a little damning for the US car market since Tesla's seen as a success of US manufacturing. Globally they are a Chinese made car.
  - dchftcs 1y ago
    Also ironically their Chinese made car is said to have better build quality than the US made one.
    - formerly_proven 1y ago
      Maybe not that surprising, in large part the Germans built up the Chinese auto industry, and Tesla went to China to tap into that manufacturing knowledge/talent and backported it to their US factory.
  - decimalenough 1y ago
    The actual reason why you can't get a Model S in Australia is that Tesla does not manufacture a right hand drive version any more. You're equally out of luck in Japan, the UK, etc.
khuey 1y ago
MSRP of an internal-combustion-powered Civic or Corolla is up 30ish percent in the same time period. The 2025 Nissan Leaf is a lot better than the 2015 model too. Range has nearly doubled for one.
kasey_junk 1y ago
What are the ranges across that decade. If the inflation adjusted price is lowering and the main technical limit is improving, it’s exactly what you’d expect from a technology improvement. Car prices are tough too because how much subsidies, tariffs etc play into it. But theoretically if you used a US made car you could limit some of that bias.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
jeffbee 1y ago
I don't think that's a realistic transaction price for the Nissan Leaf. For most of that decade they were all but giving them away on leases as low as $79/mo. There are probably streaming video channels that cost more than a Nissan Leaf.
adgjlsfhk1 1y ago
The 2012 Nisan leaf had a 73 mile range. The 2025 leaf has a 300 mile range. 4x range at the same price (~30% less with inflation) is a pretty good improvement.
- jacobr1 1y ago
  We've reach a point of price stabilization and longevity for smartphones now that didn't exist for the first 10 year ramp. When every new model added fundamental capability, you always want to upgrade, with the sweet spot often being every other year. But now, with better build quality, batteries, and stabilization of features people will keep their phones for much longer. Or buy "new" models that are of older versions since the price/features have been acceptable to run most of the apps they care about for years now. Plenty of people still want the top end for similar reasons to why people buy design clothing, but we've reached a feature plateau. We hopefully are getting close to that with EVs. Seems like around 300 mile range standard was the key thing. Though improved AI driving could change that again.
  - crote 1y ago
    The main issue with smartphones is software support, as it essentially acts like a built-in time bomb. Buying an older-generation flagship model to get better features than a current-generation midrange model of the same market price isn't very attractive when it'll have to be replaced after 2 years instead of 5 years.
dchftcs 1y ago
The only reason US doesn't have an EV cheaper than that is a >100% tariff on Chinese EVs.
- platevoltage 1y ago
  Could be part of it, but the US just doesn't have cheap cars anymore. The days of the Geo Metro and the Dodge Neon with a 5 speed and crank windows is over. Car companies have decided to relegate people (in the USA) with either low income, or who cant stomach the type of depreciation every car suffers from, to the used market.
  - supportengineer 1y ago
    2026 Corolla is $25k. I saw a manual transmission Nissan Versa for $17k. How much cheaper can they get?
    - kelnos 1y ago
      A friend of mine bought a used car in 2007 for ~$4500 in 2025 dollars. In my mid-20s I bought a 3-year-old Accord for $16k (using a $12k loan) and that was a big stretch for my finances at the time, despite having a good early-career tech job. Your $17k figure is a lot of money for most folks in the US.
  - labcomputer 1y ago
    The reality is that there's no margin in cheap cars. You need to look at numbers instead of vibes. The difference between 4 crank-up window regulators and 4 power window regulators is less than $100. 4 power lock actuators cost less than $20. Switches for all the above are, what, maybe $10? The same math applies to power mirrors, auto climate control, heated seats, cruise control, and all the rest. The production cost of a car with "power everything" vs. "manual everything" is a few hundred dollars at most. But consumers expect a much bigger discount for the inconvenience of missing those features (or, conversely, are willing to pay a much larger premium to add those features to a baseline car). That the US doesn't have cheap cars is simply the reality of what the market demands. Cheap (new) cars don't sell (for more than what it costs to produce them).

dangus 1y ago

No, you completely missed the point. The new model is still ~$30,000 but it has better range/charges faster/drives better. That doesn’t really happen as dramatically with gasoline cars. The powertrain and driving experience of a 5 year old gas car isn’t noticeably different than a current one. If you buy a 5 year old EV you might get one that charges slow, doesn’t have a heat pump, has worse battery chemistry, battery health management, and the list goes on. Heck, the Leaf is a perfect example because you’re stuck with chademo fast charging charging instead of CCS or NACS. I wouldn’t touch one with a 9 foot pole unless I planned to exclusively charge at home. Also, don’t take my comment to mean that I think used EVs are a bad choice, many of them can work very well for many years and use cases as long as you are properly informed.

edbaskerville 1y ago
This argument seems right to me. Old ICE cars are basically the same as new ones. EVs are getting better quickly, so fast depreciation makes sense. I avoided a used Leaf for exactly the reason you cited...2.5 years ago, and have been very happy with a last-of-its-generation 2023 Chevy Bolt (~ $22K new after tax credit). But if you don't care about new features, e.g., really fast charging, a used Bolt (55kW max) is a great option!
- idiotsecant 1y ago
  >>Old ICE cars are basically the same as new ones. I'm not sure that's totally true. The rate of change might be lower, but new ICE vehicles have higher efficiency (directly correlating to longer EV range) and are safer, more comfortable, and quieter. I am definitely on the pro-EV side, nearly an evangelist I suppose, but ICE vehicles do improve.
  - seanmcdirmid 1y ago
    How are ICEs quieter than EVs? Are you talking about the artificial noise EVs put out at low speeds so they don't sneak up on people? ICEs have longer range, some of them are really fuel efficient, especially hybrids. But they drive relatively more poorly unless you opt for a sports car that is cramped and expensive. It isn't the worse thing in the world to drive an ICE, but it is noticeably less fun than driving an EV.
    - overfeed 1y ago
      > How are ICEs quieter than EVs? Are you talking about the artificial noise EVs put out at low speeds so they don't sneak up on people? I think your second sentence answers your first. Car noise = tire noise + motor noise. EVs have very low motor noise compared to IC. EVs also tend to have better cabin dampening on average, but that likely has to do with price-band consumer expectations, and not inherent to the method of propulsion.
      - seanmcdirmid 1y ago
        You know you can disable that. It might be against the law though, and it isn't the EVs that demand noise, it is the society that demands them not to be silent killers. Even Hybrids have to make this noise when they are running on their electric drive trains. But let's say ICEs were made as quiet, they would be demanded to make noise as well. Also, no one has done anything about tire noise yet, so at high speeds, EVs and ICEs are about the same.
      - platevoltage 1y ago
        EVs are also much heavier, which contributes to lower noise as well. You've got a massively heavy battery pack between you and the road.
    - dare944 1y ago
      > How are ICEs quieter than EVs? That wasn't the point being made. The point was that newer ICE cars are quieter than older models, and thus ICE vehicles have improved (at least to some degree) over the same period as EVs.
mixmastamyk 1y ago
Indeed, and didn't even mention ~30% inflation over the last five years.
nwienert 1y ago
This isn’t what’s happening though. I see Tesla Highland models (<1 year old, current gen) selling at significantly larger depreciations than nearly new gas cars. This holds across other EV manufacturers.
- dangus 1y ago
  This makes a ton of sense considering the recently expired tax credit. The moment you drive an EV off the lot in September or earlier it’s worth $7,500 less than the normal depreciation. I think if we give the used market a few years without the tax credit it’ll start to look more normal.
  - nwienert 1y ago
    I think that only explains some of it, but definitely not all. The difference between gas models is massive. Look at Audi e trons for example which are regularly hitting 70% depreciation in 3 years with relatively low miles. I think it’s a lot of things: demand is weakening because people are seeing that the attempt to force them on us faltering so we don’t have to switch, trust in reliability is lower, trust in battery durability too. Also I think some of the myths of EVs advantages are being uncovered: the cost of batteries and tires takes a lot of the cost benefits away. EV charging stations are past 50% of gas station costs, when they used to be subsidized to be free. The complexity of battery, and the immensely complex heating and cooling systems means they aren’t as simple as many thought. There’s also environmental stuff - 2010s was peak climate change anxiety, you got a lot of social credit for an EV then, even more so because they were novel. The novelty factor and lack of cultural emphasis on environment both are degrading prices too.
    - labcomputer 1y ago
      e-Trons are definitely among the best deals right now in used EVs, but it's down to a confluence of factors specific to that car: 1. It had fairly good charging, but only so-so range. 250 miles seems to be a big psychological barrier for a lot of people and the e-Tron is on the wrong side of that line. 2. It's a luxury car and should be expected to have luxury car depreciation as a baseline 3. It's a luxury car with luxury car maintenance costs 4. It's a luxury car that had (maybe has) some reliability issues which incur luxury car repair costs 5. Audi had very good lease deals when they were new ("trunk money" was a common phrase) 6. Fuel economy is fairly bad when compared to anything other than an EV pickup All these combine to make it a used car that only appeals to a very specific buyer.
Marsymars 1y ago
> That doesn’t really happen as dramatically with gasoline cars. The powertrain and driving experience of a 5 year old gas car isn’t noticeably different than a current one. Depends. I recently went from a manual car to a mild hybrid with an eCVT. Feels pretty different to me.
- dangus 1y ago
  Hybrids with eCVTs existed 5-15 years ago. You just happened to not be driving one.
  - Marsymars 1y ago
    Er, yeah, but that’s kinda analagous to the situation with EVs - there’s a big difference going from a 2015 Nissan Leaf to a 2025 Models S - there’s not nearly as much of a difference going from a 2015 Models S to a 2025 Model S.

nostrademons 1y ago

It is the case globally. BYD sells EVs starting at $7800 [1][2], and Toyota sells an EV for $15,000 in China [3]. This may also be why Teslas are holding their value better than any other EV. Teslas are usually bought by U.S. consumers, who are forbidden from buying any of the cheaper global EVs by import restrictions. For fleets that buy models that are sold globally, they compete in the global market and are subject to global price declines. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs5h6R2jLUQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs5h6R2jLUQ [2] https://insideevs.com/reviews/769113/byd-seagull-good-video-drive/ https://insideevs.com/reviews/769113/byd-seagull-good-video-... [3] https://motorillustrated.com/toyota-launches-15000-bz3x-its-most-affordable-ev-in-china/149923/ https://motorillustrated.com/toyota-launches-15000-bz3x-its-...

AnotherGoodName 1y ago
Tesla's are also mostly made in China now. The Chinese Tesla's are also dropping in price if you live in a country that hasn't got massive tariffs on Chinese made cars which is basically everywhere in the world except North America and Europe. Tesla literally won't sell you a Model S in Australia for example since it's made in the USA and there's no way they can sell it for a reasonable price. It's a little damning for the US car market since Tesla's seen as a success of US manufacturing. Globally they are a Chinese made car.
- dchftcs 1y ago
  Also ironically their Chinese made car is said to have better build quality than the US made one.
  - formerly_proven 1y ago
    Maybe not that surprising, in large part the Germans built up the Chinese auto industry, and Tesla went to China to tap into that manufacturing knowledge/talent and backported it to their US factory.
- decimalenough 1y ago
  The actual reason why you can't get a Model S in Australia is that Tesla does not manufacture a right hand drive version any more. You're equally out of luck in Japan, the UK, etc.

khuey 1y ago

MSRP of an internal-combustion-powered Civic or Corolla is up 30ish percent in the same time period. The 2025 Nissan Leaf is a lot better than the 2015 model too. Range has nearly doubled for one.

kasey_junk 1y ago

What are the ranges across that decade. If the inflation adjusted price is lowering and the main technical limit is improving, it’s exactly what you’d expect from a technology improvement. Car prices are tough too because how much subsidies, tariffs etc play into it. But theoretically if you used a US made car you could limit some of that bias.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

jeffbee 1y ago

I don't think that's a realistic transaction price for the Nissan Leaf. For most of that decade they were all but giving them away on leases as low as $79/mo. There are probably streaming video channels that cost more than a Nissan Leaf.

adgjlsfhk1 1y ago

The 2012 Nisan leaf had a 73 mile range. The 2025 leaf has a 300 mile range. 4x range at the same price (~30% less with inflation) is a pretty good improvement.

jacobr1 1y ago
We've reach a point of price stabilization and longevity for smartphones now that didn't exist for the first 10 year ramp. When every new model added fundamental capability, you always want to upgrade, with the sweet spot often being every other year. But now, with better build quality, batteries, and stabilization of features people will keep their phones for much longer. Or buy "new" models that are of older versions since the price/features have been acceptable to run most of the apps they care about for years now. Plenty of people still want the top end for similar reasons to why people buy design clothing, but we've reached a feature plateau. We hopefully are getting close to that with EVs. Seems like around 300 mile range standard was the key thing. Though improved AI driving could change that again.
- crote 1y ago
  The main issue with smartphones is software support, as it essentially acts like a built-in time bomb. Buying an older-generation flagship model to get better features than a current-generation midrange model of the same market price isn't very attractive when it'll have to be replaced after 2 years instead of 5 years.

dchftcs 1y ago

The only reason US doesn't have an EV cheaper than that is a >100% tariff on Chinese EVs.

platevoltage 1y ago
Could be part of it, but the US just doesn't have cheap cars anymore. The days of the Geo Metro and the Dodge Neon with a 5 speed and crank windows is over. Car companies have decided to relegate people (in the USA) with either low income, or who cant stomach the type of depreciation every car suffers from, to the used market.
- supportengineer 1y ago
  2026 Corolla is $25k. I saw a manual transmission Nissan Versa for $17k. How much cheaper can they get?
  - kelnos 1y ago
    A friend of mine bought a used car in 2007 for ~$4500 in 2025 dollars. In my mid-20s I bought a 3-year-old Accord for $16k (using a $12k loan) and that was a big stretch for my finances at the time, despite having a good early-career tech job. Your $17k figure is a lot of money for most folks in the US.
- labcomputer 1y ago
  The reality is that there's no margin in cheap cars. You need to look at numbers instead of vibes. The difference between 4 crank-up window regulators and 4 power window regulators is less than $100. 4 power lock actuators cost less than $20. Switches for all the above are, what, maybe $10? The same math applies to power mirrors, auto climate control, heated seats, cruise control, and all the rest. The production cost of a car with "power everything" vs. "manual everything" is a few hundred dollars at most. But consumers expect a much bigger discount for the inconvenience of missing those features (or, conversely, are willing to pay a much larger premium to add those features to a baseline car). That the US doesn't have cheap cars is simply the reality of what the market demands. Cheap (new) cars don't sell (for more than what it costs to produce them).