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Solar may be intermittent but tons of electrical usage can be made intermittent thus freeing capacity for non intermittent uses. I'm so tired of these arguments

Solar may be intermittent but tons of electrical usage can be made intermittent thus freeing capacity for non intermittent uses. I'm so tired of these arguments. Trump claims to want to bring back manufacturing. Manufacturing is material inputs plus labor or automation. American labor is expensive. The only way to compete is automation. Time and time again studies show that energy cost is the main determinant of factory output and manufacturing capacity. Cheap energy equals more stuff. That's basically it. Anyone who is canceling energy projects is not brining back manufacturing.

nomel 1y ago
> but tons of electrical usage can be made intermittent I'm not familiar with large scale electrical. Do you have examples?
- ezfe 1y ago
  A good example: training AI models can be scheduled to occur when electricity is cheaper (aka solar power is active). That is just one example, but many things can happen throughout the day when power is cheaper.
- legitster 1y ago
  Aluminum refining from bauxite is a pretty classic example. It's very power intensive and will literally be done wherever and whenever they get the cheapest electricity. Bitcoin mining is a more unfortunate one but also pretty typical.
- don_neufeld 1y ago
  Example: EV charging is largely schedule based (mine charges overnight only - because rate plan), and can be made demand based pretty easily.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- phil21 1y ago
  The issue is capital expense. Buying a bunch of expensive equipment and operating it 10 hours a day vs. 24 hours a day is usually not economical. The uses where this make sense are quite rare. For example training AI models is often cited - but when you're buying $1B of GPUs to stuff in a datacenter that have a 3 year useful lifespan - you are effectively cutting your amortization schedule in half. It would require some really expensive energy to make that pencil out. Energy storage of various types are probably the currently best bet, but those also have the same problem. Vehicle charging is a clear win, but also a low hanging fruit that is already well in play.
  - rz2k 1y ago
    In such a case, isn't the "3 year useful lifespan" almost entirely related to energy cost? Why not put machines on 24 hour schedules for their first couple years, then cheap intermittent power for the next five?
- dghlsakjg 1y ago
  Many large industrial sites will cut deals with power companies for very cheap rates in exchange for not running during peak hours. Classic example is aluminum refining, and, depending on process, steel refining. If you can do demand based pricing, you could even end up with new time arbitrage business models. A battery farm or hydro facility stores energy when rates are cheap and discharges when rates go up.
lc9er 1y ago
> Trump claims It’s safe at this point to always assume the opposite of what he claims. Seems pretty clear he and his cohorts are going to cancel everything, funnel money into their pockets, then buy up everything for pennies on the dollar. Everyone in the US, and perhaps globally, will suffer while they create an ultra-corrupt New Gilded Age that makes the first one look like amateur hour.
adriand 1y ago
The US is losing thousands of manufacturing jobs under Trump. Major manufacturers are booking huge tariff-related losses. What is propping up the US economy right now is the AI infrastructure buildout, but the energy needs for this sector are huge. It’s complete insanity to try and kill solar, which is the cheapest and by far the fastest way to bring new capacity onto the grid. Regular Americans who aren’t part of the AI boom are facing manufacturing job losses, more expensive goods and skyrocketing electricity prices.
conradev 1y ago
Yeah. Less energy, less industry. Energy policy is industrial policy.
DFHippie 1y ago
> Trump claims to want to bring back manufacturing. Trump claims a lot of stuff. It's all gaslighting*. * Speaking of things Trump would claim to be for. Electric lighting is effete foolishness that makes your testicles shrivel!
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
nradov 1y ago
If we want to bring most types of manufacturing back then we need cheap, reliable base load power. It's often not economically feasible to shut a plant down and wait out a spike in electricity spot prices due to batch processing limits, thermal cycling, labor scheduling, and capital depreciation concerns. It's not a simple thing like turning off your home water heater for a few hours.
- dalyons 1y ago
  And your proposed solution for this is? Can’t be nuclear because that’s the most expensive mainstream energy we have.
  - nradov 1y ago
    Long term probably the only realistic solution will be changes in government policy to make fission power the least expensive energy we have. Grid scale battery storage can also help to an extent but it's unclear whether that will ever be cost effective or even possible given resource constraints.
    - dalyons 1y ago
      So… we wait 30 years for this to happen while the planet cooks? Nah, I’d rather throw everything into renewables, batteries, and other innovations
- anon291 1y ago
  Okay and what are we doing for that ? We are turning off dams in the PNW. China has successfully reduced energy costs, partially by using solar. I say just do what they're doing. We are at the point of playing catch up.

nomel 1y ago

> but tons of electrical usage can be made intermittent I'm not familiar with large scale electrical. Do you have examples?

ezfe 1y ago
A good example: training AI models can be scheduled to occur when electricity is cheaper (aka solar power is active). That is just one example, but many things can happen throughout the day when power is cheaper.
legitster 1y ago
Aluminum refining from bauxite is a pretty classic example. It's very power intensive and will literally be done wherever and whenever they get the cheapest electricity. Bitcoin mining is a more unfortunate one but also pretty typical.
don_neufeld 1y ago
Example: EV charging is largely schedule based (mine charges overnight only - because rate plan), and can be made demand based pretty easily.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
phil21 1y ago
The issue is capital expense. Buying a bunch of expensive equipment and operating it 10 hours a day vs. 24 hours a day is usually not economical. The uses where this make sense are quite rare. For example training AI models is often cited - but when you're buying $1B of GPUs to stuff in a datacenter that have a 3 year useful lifespan - you are effectively cutting your amortization schedule in half. It would require some really expensive energy to make that pencil out. Energy storage of various types are probably the currently best bet, but those also have the same problem. Vehicle charging is a clear win, but also a low hanging fruit that is already well in play.
- rz2k 1y ago
  In such a case, isn't the "3 year useful lifespan" almost entirely related to energy cost? Why not put machines on 24 hour schedules for their first couple years, then cheap intermittent power for the next five?
dghlsakjg 1y ago
Many large industrial sites will cut deals with power companies for very cheap rates in exchange for not running during peak hours. Classic example is aluminum refining, and, depending on process, steel refining. If you can do demand based pricing, you could even end up with new time arbitrage business models. A battery farm or hydro facility stores energy when rates are cheap and discharges when rates go up.

lc9er 1y ago

> Trump claims It’s safe at this point to always assume the opposite of what he claims. Seems pretty clear he and his cohorts are going to cancel everything, funnel money into their pockets, then buy up everything for pennies on the dollar. Everyone in the US, and perhaps globally, will suffer while they create an ultra-corrupt New Gilded Age that makes the first one look like amateur hour.

adriand 1y ago

The US is losing thousands of manufacturing jobs under Trump. Major manufacturers are booking huge tariff-related losses. What is propping up the US economy right now is the AI infrastructure buildout, but the energy needs for this sector are huge. It’s complete insanity to try and kill solar, which is the cheapest and by far the fastest way to bring new capacity onto the grid. Regular Americans who aren’t part of the AI boom are facing manufacturing job losses, more expensive goods and skyrocketing electricity prices.

conradev 1y ago

Yeah. Less energy, less industry. Energy policy is industrial policy.

DFHippie 1y ago

> Trump claims to want to bring back manufacturing. Trump claims a lot of stuff. It's all gaslighting*. * Speaking of things Trump would claim to be for. Electric lighting is effete foolishness that makes your testicles shrivel!

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

nradov 1y ago

If we want to bring most types of manufacturing back then we need cheap, reliable base load power. It's often not economically feasible to shut a plant down and wait out a spike in electricity spot prices due to batch processing limits, thermal cycling, labor scheduling, and capital depreciation concerns. It's not a simple thing like turning off your home water heater for a few hours.

dalyons 1y ago
And your proposed solution for this is? Can’t be nuclear because that’s the most expensive mainstream energy we have.
- nradov 1y ago
  Long term probably the only realistic solution will be changes in government policy to make fission power the least expensive energy we have. Grid scale battery storage can also help to an extent but it's unclear whether that will ever be cost effective or even possible given resource constraints.
  - dalyons 1y ago
    So… we wait 30 years for this to happen while the planet cooks? Nah, I’d rather throw everything into renewables, batteries, and other innovations
anon291 1y ago
Okay and what are we doing for that ? We are turning off dams in the PNW. China has successfully reduced energy costs, partially by using solar. I say just do what they're doing. We are at the point of playing catch up.