5 ms·

Is it bad I quietly hope AI fails to live up to expectations?

hirvi74 1y ago
I am not sure that we are not presented with a Catch-22. Yes, life might likely be better for developers and other careers if AI fails to live up to expectations. However, a lot companies, i.e., many of our employers, have invested a lot of money in these products. In the event AI fails, I think the stretched rubber band of economics will slap back hard. So, many might end up losing their jobs (and more) anyway.
- nemomarx 1y ago
  Even if it takes off, they might have invested in the wrong picks or etc. If you think of the dot com boom the Internet was eventually a very successful thing, e commerce did work out, but there were a lot of losing horses to bet on.
- RivieraKid 1y ago
  If AI fails to continue to improve, the worst-case economic outcome is a short and mild recession and probably not even that. Once sector of the economy would cut down on investment spending, which can be easily offset by decreasing the interest rate. But this is a short-term effect. What I'm worried is a structural change of the labor market, which would be positive for most people, but probably negative for people like me.
  - coffeebeqn 1y ago
    AI not sucking up 90% of all current investments? Sign me up to this world!
unsupp0rted 1y ago
Yes, it's bad. Because we're all dying of cancer, heart disease and auto-immune disease, not to mention traffic accidents and other random killers that AI could warn us about and fix. I don't mind losing my programming job in exchange for being able to go to the pharmacy for my annual anti-cancer pill.
- mirblitzarmaven 1y ago
  Fair point on improvements outside of garbage generative AI. But, what happens when you lose that programming job and are forced to take a job at a ~50-70% pay reduction? How are you paying for that anti-cancer drug with a job with no to little health insurance?
  - assword 1y ago
    The usual answer to this question is that LLMs are on the verge of making Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism a reality.
    - jplusequalt 1y ago
      Which is completely detached from reality. Where are the social programs for this? Hell, we've spent the last 8 months hampering social systems, not bolstering them.
    - tecleandor 1y ago
      I'd love that, but I have the feeling that Altman is not in that same page.
  - lurking_swe 1y ago
    you move out of the US to a country that doesn’t hate its own people lol. That’s one option. Or pray you have good insurance.
- amarcheschi 1y ago
  Or the funding for ai might have gone into curing cancer, heart disease, better research for urban planning, whatever that isn't ai
- catigula 1y ago
  You're afraid to die so we should reorder society to fail to prevent it because reasons.
- jplusequalt 1y ago

I am not sure that we are not presented with a Catch-22. Yes, life might likely be better for developers and other careers if AI fails to live up to expectations. However, a lot companies, i.e., many of our employers, have invested a lot of money in these products. In the event AI fails, I think the stretched rubber band of economics will slap back hard. So, many might end up losing their jobs (and more) anyway.

nemomarx 1y ago
Even if it takes off, they might have invested in the wrong picks or etc. If you think of the dot com boom the Internet was eventually a very successful thing, e commerce did work out, but there were a lot of losing horses to bet on.
RivieraKid 1y ago
If AI fails to continue to improve, the worst-case economic outcome is a short and mild recession and probably not even that. Once sector of the economy would cut down on investment spending, which can be easily offset by decreasing the interest rate. But this is a short-term effect. What I'm worried is a structural change of the labor market, which would be positive for most people, but probably negative for people like me.
- coffeebeqn 1y ago
  AI not sucking up 90% of all current investments? Sign me up to this world!

unsupp0rted 1y ago

Yes, it's bad. Because we're all dying of cancer, heart disease and auto-immune disease, not to mention traffic accidents and other random killers that AI could warn us about and fix. I don't mind losing my programming job in exchange for being able to go to the pharmacy for my annual anti-cancer pill.

mirblitzarmaven 1y ago
Fair point on improvements outside of garbage generative AI. But, what happens when you lose that programming job and are forced to take a job at a ~50-70% pay reduction? How are you paying for that anti-cancer drug with a job with no to little health insurance?
- assword 1y ago
  The usual answer to this question is that LLMs are on the verge of making Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism a reality.
  - jplusequalt 1y ago
    Which is completely detached from reality. Where are the social programs for this? Hell, we've spent the last 8 months hampering social systems, not bolstering them.
  - tecleandor 1y ago
    I'd love that, but I have the feeling that Altman is not in that same page.
- lurking_swe 1y ago
  you move out of the US to a country that doesn’t hate its own people lol. That’s one option. Or pray you have good insurance.
amarcheschi 1y ago
Or the funding for ai might have gone into curing cancer, heart disease, better research for urban planning, whatever that isn't ai
catigula 1y ago
You're afraid to die so we should reorder society to fail to prevent it because reasons.
jplusequalt 1y ago