14 ms·

Is it bad that I hope it's not a significant improvement in coding?

by RivieraKid 1y ago

mirblitzarmaven 1y ago
Is it bad I quietly hope AI fails to live up to expectations?
- hirvi74 1y ago
  I am not sure that we are not presented with a Catch-22. Yes, life might likely be better for developers and other careers if AI fails to live up to expectations. However, a lot companies, i.e., many of our employers, have invested a lot of money in these products. In the event AI fails, I think the stretched rubber band of economics will slap back hard. So, many might end up losing their jobs (and more) anyway.
  - nemomarx 1y ago
    Even if it takes off, they might have invested in the wrong picks or etc. If you think of the dot com boom the Internet was eventually a very successful thing, e commerce did work out, but there were a lot of losing horses to bet on.
  - RivieraKid 1y ago
    If AI fails to continue to improve, the worst-case economic outcome is a short and mild recession and probably not even that. Once sector of the economy would cut down on investment spending, which can be easily offset by decreasing the interest rate. But this is a short-term effect. What I'm worried is a structural change of the labor market, which would be positive for most people, but probably negative for people like me.
    - coffeebeqn 1y ago
      AI not sucking up 90% of all current investments? Sign me up to this world!
- unsupp0rted 1y ago
  Yes, it's bad. Because we're all dying of cancer, heart disease and auto-immune disease, not to mention traffic accidents and other random killers that AI could warn us about and fix. I don't mind losing my programming job in exchange for being able to go to the pharmacy for my annual anti-cancer pill.
  - mirblitzarmaven 1y ago
    Fair point on improvements outside of garbage generative AI. But, what happens when you lose that programming job and are forced to take a job at a ~50-70% pay reduction? How are you paying for that anti-cancer drug with a job with no to little health insurance?
    - assword 1y ago
      The usual answer to this question is that LLMs are on the verge of making Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism a reality.
      - jplusequalt 1y ago
        Which is completely detached from reality. Where are the social programs for this? Hell, we've spent the last 8 months hampering social systems, not bolstering them.
      - tecleandor 1y ago
        I'd love that, but I have the feeling that Altman is not in that same page.
    - lurking_swe 1y ago
      you move out of the US to a country that doesn’t hate its own people lol. That’s one option. Or pray you have good insurance.
  - amarcheschi 1y ago
    Or the funding for ai might have gone into curing cancer, heart disease, better research for urban planning, whatever that isn't ai
bluefirebrand 1y ago
No, it's not bad to hope that your industry and source of income isn't about to be gutted by corporations
- lavezzi 1y ago
  Sounds more like “I’m hoping it doesn’t eat my lunch”, but everyone else be damned.
  - bluefirebrand 1y ago
    I hope it doesn't eat anyone's lunch Earth for humans, not machines, not AI
amarcheschi 1y ago
Seeing the system card https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/8124a3ce-ab78-4f06-96eb-49ea29ffb52f/gpt5-system-card-aug7.pdf https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/8124a3ce-ab78-4f06-96eb-49ea29ffb... there is some improvements in some benchs and not else worthy of note in coding. i only took a peek though so i might be wrong
arm32 1y ago
What's bad about not wanting to lose your job?
- 9rx 1y ago
  You are losing your job either way. Either AI will successfully take it, or as you no doubt read in the article yesterday, AI is the only thing propping up the economy, so the jobs will also be cut in the fallout if AI fails to deliver.
  - thewebguyd 1y ago
    Except one is recoverable from, just as we eventually recovered from dotcom. The other is permanent and requires either government intervention in the form of UBI(good luck with that), or a significant amount of the population retraining for other careers and starting over, if that's even possible. But yeah, you are correct in that no matter what, we're going to be left holding the bag.
    - 9rx 1y ago
      > Except one is recoverable from, just as we eventually recovered from dotcom. "Dotcom" was never recovered. It, however, did pave the way for web browsers to gain rich APIs that allowed us to deliver what was historically installed desktop software on an on-demand delivery platform, which created new work. As that was starting to die out, the so-called smartphone just so happened to come along. That offered us the opportunity to do it all over again, except this time we were taking those on-demand applications and turning them back into installable software just like in the desktop era. And as that was starting to die out COVID hit and we started moving those installable mobile apps, which became less important when people we no longer on the go all the time, back to the web again. As that was starting to die out, then came ChatGPT and it offered work porting all those applications to AI platforms. But if AI fails to deliver, there isn't an obvious next venue for us to rebuild the same programs all over yet again. Meta thought maybe VR was it, but we know how that turned out. More likely in that scenario we will continue using the web/mobile/AI apps that are already written henceforth. We don't really need the same applications running in other places anymore. There is still room for niche applications here and there. The profession isn't apt to die a complete death. But without the massive effort to continually port everything from one platform to another, you don't need that many people.
singpolyma3 1y ago
Yes
myahio 1y ago
Today might be your lucky day then
- RivieraKid 1y ago
  Dodged the bullet.

Is it bad that I hope it's not a significant improvement in coding?

mirblitzarmaven 1y ago

Is it bad I quietly hope AI fails to live up to expectations?

hirvi74 1y ago
I am not sure that we are not presented with a Catch-22. Yes, life might likely be better for developers and other careers if AI fails to live up to expectations. However, a lot companies, i.e., many of our employers, have invested a lot of money in these products. In the event AI fails, I think the stretched rubber band of economics will slap back hard. So, many might end up losing their jobs (and more) anyway.
- nemomarx 1y ago
  Even if it takes off, they might have invested in the wrong picks or etc. If you think of the dot com boom the Internet was eventually a very successful thing, e commerce did work out, but there were a lot of losing horses to bet on.
- RivieraKid 1y ago
  If AI fails to continue to improve, the worst-case economic outcome is a short and mild recession and probably not even that. Once sector of the economy would cut down on investment spending, which can be easily offset by decreasing the interest rate. But this is a short-term effect. What I'm worried is a structural change of the labor market, which would be positive for most people, but probably negative for people like me.
  - coffeebeqn 1y ago
    AI not sucking up 90% of all current investments? Sign me up to this world!
unsupp0rted 1y ago
Yes, it's bad. Because we're all dying of cancer, heart disease and auto-immune disease, not to mention traffic accidents and other random killers that AI could warn us about and fix. I don't mind losing my programming job in exchange for being able to go to the pharmacy for my annual anti-cancer pill.
- mirblitzarmaven 1y ago
  Fair point on improvements outside of garbage generative AI. But, what happens when you lose that programming job and are forced to take a job at a ~50-70% pay reduction? How are you paying for that anti-cancer drug with a job with no to little health insurance?
  - assword 1y ago
    The usual answer to this question is that LLMs are on the verge of making Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism a reality.
    - jplusequalt 1y ago
      Which is completely detached from reality. Where are the social programs for this? Hell, we've spent the last 8 months hampering social systems, not bolstering them.
    - tecleandor 1y ago
      I'd love that, but I have the feeling that Altman is not in that same page.
  - lurking_swe 1y ago
    you move out of the US to a country that doesn’t hate its own people lol. That’s one option. Or pray you have good insurance.
- amarcheschi 1y ago
  Or the funding for ai might have gone into curing cancer, heart disease, better research for urban planning, whatever that isn't ai

bluefirebrand 1y ago

No, it's not bad to hope that your industry and source of income isn't about to be gutted by corporations

lavezzi 1y ago
Sounds more like “I’m hoping it doesn’t eat my lunch”, but everyone else be damned.
- bluefirebrand 1y ago
  I hope it doesn't eat anyone's lunch Earth for humans, not machines, not AI

amarcheschi 1y ago

Seeing the system card https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/8124a3ce-ab78-4f06-96eb-49ea29ffb52f/gpt5-system-card-aug7.pdf https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/8124a3ce-ab78-4f06-96eb-49ea29ffb... there is some improvements in some benchs and not else worthy of note in coding. i only took a peek though so i might be wrong

arm32 1y ago

What's bad about not wanting to lose your job?

9rx 1y ago
You are losing your job either way. Either AI will successfully take it, or as you no doubt read in the article yesterday, AI is the only thing propping up the economy, so the jobs will also be cut in the fallout if AI fails to deliver.
- thewebguyd 1y ago
  Except one is recoverable from, just as we eventually recovered from dotcom. The other is permanent and requires either government intervention in the form of UBI(good luck with that), or a significant amount of the population retraining for other careers and starting over, if that's even possible. But yeah, you are correct in that no matter what, we're going to be left holding the bag.
  - 9rx 1y ago
    > Except one is recoverable from, just as we eventually recovered from dotcom. "Dotcom" was never recovered. It, however, did pave the way for web browsers to gain rich APIs that allowed us to deliver what was historically installed desktop software on an on-demand delivery platform, which created new work. As that was starting to die out, the so-called smartphone just so happened to come along. That offered us the opportunity to do it all over again, except this time we were taking those on-demand applications and turning them back into installable software just like in the desktop era. And as that was starting to die out COVID hit and we started moving those installable mobile apps, which became less important when people we no longer on the go all the time, back to the web again. As that was starting to die out, then came ChatGPT and it offered work porting all those applications to AI platforms. But if AI fails to deliver, there isn't an obvious next venue for us to rebuild the same programs all over yet again. Meta thought maybe VR was it, but we know how that turned out. More likely in that scenario we will continue using the web/mobile/AI apps that are already written henceforth. We don't really need the same applications running in other places anymore. There is still room for niche applications here and there. The profession isn't apt to die a complete death. But without the massive effort to continually port everything from one platform to another, you don't need that many people.

singpolyma3 1y ago

Yes

myahio 1y ago

Today might be your lucky day then

RivieraKid 1y ago
Dodged the bullet.