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If something happens to Taiwan, we won't regret being able to produce these chips domestically. If AI keeps growing like it does, it might even trigger a confli
by fishsticks89 1y ago
If something happens to Taiwan, we won't regret being able to produce these chips domestically. If AI keeps growing like it does, it might even trigger a conflict.
- kulahan 1y agoAh yes, Taiwán - that famously stable nation with no existential threats to its very existence. I don’t think this is an “if” situation, but rather a “when”. There is no question in my mind - it’s simply too attractive to China. It may not come through all out war, but they will eventually claim what they feel is theirs. They operate on much more manageable time scales.
- Gee101 1y agoWhat is interesting is if the world is not that reliant on Taiwan chips anymore would China really care that much about Taiwan?
- Zaiberia 1y agoYes, they would. However, if Taiwan wasn’t as important to the world because of their chips then the world would probably not care as much about what communist China wants to do to them.
- kortilla 1y agoProbably, my understanding is that the primary reason China cares about Taiwan is internal pressure about the separatism. The power Taiwan has is the only reason they haven’t acted.
- 2muchcoffeeman 1y agoChina is not interested in Taiwan for the chips. They want it back since they believe Taiwan is part of China.
- owebmaster 1y agoTaiwan also believes they are (part of) China
- curseofcasandra 1y agoOr more accurately, the Taiwanese government also believes that mainland China and Taiwan should be unified (ie. a One-China Interpretation). But that this One-China should be under the rule of the Taiwanese government and not the CCP, which they considered an illegitimate government, up until the 1992 Consensus. After the 1992 Consensus [1], the Taiwanese government still considered the Mainland its territory (again under a One-China Interpretation), but also acknowledges the CCP's interpretation of One-China. In practice, this meant they officially abandoned plans to re-take the Mainland, and focus on maintaining the status quo of peace and stability. Interestingly, the Taiwanese government also used to lay claim to Mongolia in addition to the Chinese Mainland.[2] [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Consensus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Consensus [2]https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2024/08/25/2003822726 https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2024/08/25/20...
- sarchertech 1y agoAlmost no one in Taiwan still believes that though. But China has made it clear that they will invade if the Taiwanese government changes their official stance to be that they’re an independent country.
- ergocoder 1y agoThe unification isn't the issue. It's whose government will get to run the whole thing.
- jdietrich 1y agoThe UN has only ever recognised one China - they just switched from recognising the ROC to the PRC in 1971. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_2758_(XXVI) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembl...
- usefulcat 1y agoWasn't China already pissed about Taiwan long before Taiwan was doing a lot of semiconductor manufacturing?
- johanyc 1y agoThey would. The main reason has always been the location. It’s right at the doorstep of China. It’s the same reason when Russia tried to install missile in Cuba, Americans dont like that. Cuba “crisis” is actually a US centric term. Also on east coast of Taiwan, theres a deep waters, submarines can enter pacific ocean much more stealthily. Everything else is just bonus to them. Semiconductors, supporting nationalism, you name it.
- IncreasePosts 1y agoSouth Korea and Japan/Okinawa seem either just as good or better if the US wants to have bases near China. And the US already has 80k troops there
- laborcontract 1y agoYou have to take a look at a map to really understand Taiwan's importance. Taiwan isn't about military proximity. It's about access shipping access. Try open up a map. Despite China having a vast coastline, they do not have access to the open seas. Every one of their shipping lanes requires passage through another nation's waters. If a heavy conflict were to erupt, China's supply chains would be cut off via naval blockade. It's a huge risk to China, and one they've attempted to ameliorate via the Belt and Road Initiative. That changes if they acquire Taiwan. Taiwan's importance is not of offensive, but defensive primacy.
- 15155 1y ago> If a heavy conflict were to erupt, China's supply chains would be cut off via naval blockade Or possibly the 30+ fast attack submarines sinking every military or resupply vessel in the region, augmented by a colossal amount of rapidly-deployed naval mines. Taiwan doesn't buy them much in this regard. Why would China be permitted to use sea freight at all in a "heavy conflict" scenario? Why not just sink these vessels near their origin - why allow Brazilian soybeans to even make it out of the hemisphere?
- anon7725 1y ago
- kelnos 1y agoChina has wanted Taiwan long before they fabbed semiconductors. It's a matter of ego and nationalism, not economics. It's also political: China hates that there's a Western-style democracy full of "Chinese rebels" on an island 80 miles from their doorstep. They also don't like the cozy relationship between the Taiwanese and US militaries.
- modzu 1y agowhen? 1945 was a long time ago
- jiggawatts 1y agoUkraine split from the Soviet Union in 1991 and then 31 years later Russia invaded to take it back.
- chronci300 1y ago> Ah yes, Taiwán If you’re going to use accents, technically it’s Táiwān (ㄊㄞˊㄨㄢ)
- kulahan 1y agoIt was autocorrect - I have no idea why it’s in there to be honest. Neat to know the right way to write it though - thanks
- iammrpayments 1y agoWhat is so attractive to attempt the greatest amphibious assault in human history just to get an island with a bunch of people who will hate you and have nowhere to run away.
- Lu2025 1y agoThe thing about autocracies, there is nobody to stop an obviously wrong decision (for example, Russian invasion of Ukraine).
- basilgohar 1y agoYes, because in Western democracies we were very successful at stopping invasions such as Iraq x2, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea, etc.
- necovek 1y agoThere is nobody to admit a bad decision and reverse course on it?
- jopsen 1y agoThink of all the wars we didn't have :) Democracies aren't perfect, but they can change, admit mistakes and adapt.
- blackoil 1y agoI think it is other way round. In a democracy ideas are ingrained in public psyche for support. Be it Muslims/Jews/Christians good/bad, immigrants evil, abortion bad all become part of a large percentage of people's belief and changing that requires equally herculean efforts. In autocracy, people are generally kept aloof of such decisions so you can always switch enemies from Eurasia to Eastasia and no one cares. In case of China, the value of Taiwan/Arunachal/... is mostly egoistical, based on some notion that Qing China boundaries must be restored. If tomorrow a new leadership comes and makes EU kind of setup with Taiwan, people will have no say and most won't care.
- victorbjorklund 1y agoThe upside isnt huge to China. It is mostly their pride. The downside if not everything goes to plan is huge. Could end the communist party in China. I think it is a really though decision for the communist party if they should go all-in or not.
- amelius 1y agoThis is still TSMC's plant. I bet Taiwan has tight control over it.
- patmcc 1y agoI think the risk here is Taiwan being invaded by China, in which case having some US-based production helps a lot.
- jeremyjh 1y agoIt would mean TSMC would basically become a US company, right?
- nine_k 1y agoI suppose they have a US branch / subsidiary anyway?
- jeremyjh 1y agoYes, every company that operates in the US and many that only import have US subsidiaries. This is true of all companies pretty much everywhere in the world. The government must have an entity it can tax, and a throat it can choke, but the subsidiary is answering to a parent and that is I think what would change if TSMC could no longer operate in Taiwan or was taken over by the party.
- amelius 1y agoBut do you think Taiwan will let the US get away with not helping them?
- guywithahat 1y agoIronically my only opposition to US chips is that we’re less liable to protect Taiwan if China invades
- zarzavat 1y agoIt's probably the opposite. I very much doubt that the factory would continue to operate if the US refused to defend Taiwan. The factory gives Taiwan a huge amount of leverage.
- seanmcdirmid 1y agoThe supply chains for chip production terminate in Asia but there aren’t many inputs that originate there (which is by design). The real value to be lost are the Taiwanese engineers themselves.
- daneel_w 1y agoOf course it would continue to operate. The Chinese division of Arm went rogue and basically captured the entire operation from within. USA has both the engineering expertise and the incentive to do the same with an entire chip fab, if push came to shove. https://semianalysis.com/2021/08/27/the-semiconductor-heist-of-the-century/ https://semianalysis.com/2021/08/27/the-semiconductor-heist-...
- Mountain_Skies 1y agoFor how much longer will the United States have that expertise? Both major political parties seem intent on becoming completely reliant on importing labor, both blue collar and white collar, while giving domestic labor the finger. Boomers are already retiring by the millions and Gen-X aren't all that far behind. Outsource mania and its cheap visa labor twin had been growing since the 1990s so the younger generations have been shaped in that environment. Does the United States really have that expertise or does it simply have a bunch of guests with that expertise? Should a country have to hope that it can pander to those guests enough for them to stay and be loyal (and possibly disloyal to their homelands)? Doesn't seem very stable in the long run.
- irjustin 1y agoIs something the gov should subsidize or at least organize competitors to act like a cartel[0]? Such that the market forces don't push pricing that the plant would naturally die. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoebus_cartel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoebus_cartel
- Qwertious 1y agoThe phoebus cartel whine is bullshit - incandescent light bulbs should be limited to 1000 hours because 1) the cost of electricity used by the bulb is easily as much as the replacement bulb (in the 1920s/1930s), and running the bulb hotter makes it more energy-efficient, and 2) because running incandescents cold makes the light look sickly and awful. Light bulbs were mostly being sold by electric companies at the time, so trading one for the other didn't matter to them. Planned obsolescence does happen, but the phoebus cartel is the worst 'example' of it.
- xmprt 1y ago> the cost of electricity used by the bulb is easily as much as the replacement bulb This point is only relevant if 1000 hour old bulbs cost more electricity to run than new bulbs. Maybe I don't understand how old bulbs worked but why couldn't they invent ways to make bulbs run hot which also last longer than 1000 hours.
- ahartmetz 1y agoLight bulbs die because the filament slowly evaporates. If you increase the filament temperature just a little, efficiency increases quickly and life expectancy decreases quickly. They were already using the most heat-resistant metals, too. It's not sabotage, it's physics.
- irjustin 1y agoIt's fine to complain it's a bad example of "planned obsolescence", but I hope you didn't downvote me for that (i got a few downs). I was just talking about organization of competitive companies for price manipulation, but specifically controlled for the benefit of the public - such that we don't lose the US plant due to natural market forces. It's why ULA is still in business despite SpaceX being significantly cheaper.
- zer00eyz 1y ago> If something happens to Taiwan, This isn't really a workable argument any more. As examples: https://apnews.com/article/north-carolina-quartz-hurricane-57153eaba12ba9dcb87bf618d72364ec https://apnews.com/article/north-carolina-quartz-hurricane-5... https://archive.is/sM16Y https://archive.is/sM16Y The global supply chain is now so deeply interwoven that a large geopolitical disruption is nearly impossible. It took explosives for the EU to curtail its Russian natural gas use. And there is still stiff trade with Russia today (not as much as pre war) and lots of folks exploiting the gaps in that system (Turkey, India, china). If you have never read it I highly recommend I, Pencil: https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/read-i-pencil-my-family-tree-as-told-to-leonard-e-read-dec-1958 https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/read-i-pencil-my-family-t...
- pyrale 1y ago> It took explosives for the EU to curtail its Russian natural gas use. Assuming you refer to NS2 blowup, it was unused when it got sabotaged.
- marsven_422 1y ago[dead]
- zer00eyz 1y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_pipelines_sabotage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_pipelines_sabotage NS1 was hit at the same time as well. NS2 had not been activated and NS1 was undergoing work at the time.
- tarkin2 1y agoIf something happens to Taiwan, the USA will have given a huge military advantage to its biggest adversary. It's going to take decades for the USA to catch up with Taiwan, and once China has its grip on the fabs they'll only further advance them. In an existential crisis, the chances of Taiwan's leadership doing a deal with China when it's military protector retreats from its former declarations is in no way low. It'll be the end of American military dominance but in fitting with the US's repeated isolationist trajectory.
- Mountain_Skies 1y agoHow did that come to be? The US used to be the world leader in chip manufacturing and that wasn't all that long ago. Why was something so critical given away so freely?
- xadhominemx 1y agoIt was not given away - it was won by the Taiwanese, who bet on the fabless-foundry business model and executed magnificently.
- SJC_Hacker 1y agoI’m no expert but I believe it’s because Taiwan bet heavily on a process known as Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV). The US companies cough Intel cough did not. Which is part of the reason they are laying off workers
- blitzar 1y agoIf something happens to the US, we won't regret being able to produce these chips domestically. For the rest of the world, Taiwan with a "China Risk" looks like a safer bet than the USA.
- Mountain_Skies 1y agoUntil the rest of the world actually stops using the US Dollar as their reserve currency instead of endlessly talking about it but never actually do more than some token local trades, I don't believe the rest of the world prefers Mainland China invading Taiwan over dealing with the US. People (and countries) love to bluster but their actions are far more indicative of their outlook than posturing is.
- azernik 1y agoThe way to reduce the risk is to diversify. Taiwan with a China risk and the US with a "US risk" is much safer than either alone.
- redleader55 1y agoIn a world of US and China being at odds with each other and controlling a GPU factory each, AI for Europe, Japan, Australia, etc becomes a game of who can kiss ass better and hoping the master doesn't change the rules further. There should be more places that can produce enough energy and have AI leverage.
- eli_gottlieb 1y agoThere should. I wish the Netherlands the best in further building out the industry in the EU!
- motorest 1y ago> The way to reduce the risk is to diversify. Taiwan with a China risk and the US with a "US risk" is much safer than either alone. Not really. Taiwan with a China risk means China has pressure to not change the status quo. US with a US risk means they have a vested interest to facilitate China's imperialistic agenda to try dethrone Taiwan as a competitor in the chip market. That, coupled with the imbecile tariff war, underlines the unacceptable risk presented by the "US risk".