5 ms·
If this is the full fp16 quant, you'd need 2TB of memory to use with the full 131k context. With 44GB of SRAM per Cerebras chip, you'd need 45 chips chained to
by aurareturn 1y ago
If this is the full fp16 quant, you'd need 2TB of memory to use with the full 131k context.
With 44GB of SRAM per Cerebras chip, you'd need 45 chips chained together. $3m per chip. $135m total to run this.
For comparison, you can buy a DGX B200 with 8x B200 Blackwell chips and 1.4TB of memory for around $500k. Two systems would give you 2.8TB memory which is enough for this. So $1m vs $135m to run this model.
It's not very scalable unless you have some ultra high value task that need super fast inference speed. Maybe hedge funds or some sort of financial markets?
PS. The reason why I think we're only in the beginning of the AI boom is because I can't imagine what we can build if we can run models as good as Claude Opus 4 (or even better) at 1500 tokens/s for a very cheap price and tens of millions of context tokens. We're still a few generations of hardware away I'm guessing.
- lordofgibbons 1y agoAlmost everyone runs LLM inference at fp8 - for all of the open models anyway. You only see performance drop off below fp8.
- stingraycharles 1y agoIsn’t usually mixed? I understood that Apple even uses fp1 or fp2 on their hardware embedded models they ship on their phones, but as far as I know it’s typically a whole bunch of different precisions.
- llm_nerd 1y agoSmall bit of pedantry: While there are 1 and 2-bit quantized types used in some aggressive schemes, they aren't floating point so it's inaccurate to preface them with FP. They are int types. The smallest real floating point type is FP4. EDIT: Who knew that correctness is controversial. What a weird place HN has become.
- xtracto 1y agoI wonder if the fact that we use "floating point" is itself a bottleneck that can be improved. Remembering my CS classes, storing an FP value requires the base and the exponent; that's a design decision. Also remembering some assembler classes, Int arithmetic is way faster than FP. Could there be a better "representation " for the numbers needed in NN that would provide the accuracy of floating point but provide faster operations? (Maybe even allow to perform required operations as bitwise ops. Kind of like the left/right shifting to double/half ints. )
- xtracto 1y agoShit I'd love to do R&D on this.
- llm_nerd 1y agoSure, we have integers of many sizes, fixed point, and floating point, all of which are used in neural networks. Floating points are ideal when the scale of a value can vary tremendously, which is of obvious importance for gradient descent, and then after we can quantize to some fixed size. A modern processor can do something similar to an integer bit shift about as quickly with a floating point, courtesy of FSCALE instructions and similes. Indeed, modern processors are extremely performant at floating point math.
- kadushka 1y agoCould there be a better Yes. Look up “block floating point”.
- h3lp 1y agoA common FP4 layout is 1 sign bit, 3 exponent bits, 0 mantissa bits. There's just not that much difference in complexity between that and a 4-bit integer---the ALU can just be a simple table lookup, for both FP and integer.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- thegeomaster 1y agoYou're assuming that the whole model has to be in SRAM.
- sailingparrot 1y ago> With 44GB of SRAM per Cerebras chip, you'd need 45 chips chained together. $3m per chip. $135m total to run this. That's not how you would do it with Cerebras. 44GB is SRAM, so on chip memory, not HBM memory where you would store most of the params. For reference one GB200 has only 126MB of SRAM, if you tried to estimate how many GB200 you would need for a 2TB model just by looking at the L2 cache size you would get 16k GB200 aka ~600M$, obviously way off. Cerebras uses a different architecture than Nvidia, where the HBM is not directly packaged with the chips, this is handled by a different system so you can scale memory and compute separately. Specifically you can use something like MemoryX to act as your HBM which will be high speed interconnected to the chips SRAM, see [1]. I'm not at all an expert in Cerebras, but IIRC you can connect up to like 2PB of memory to a single Cererbas chip, so almost 1000x the FP16 model. [1]: https://www.cerebras.ai/blog/announcing-the-cerebras-architecture-for-extreme-scale-ai https://www.cerebras.ai/blog/announcing-the-cerebras-archite...
- throwawaymaths 1y agowhat are the bandwidth/latency of memoryX? those are the key parameters for inference
- Zenst 1y agoWell MemoryX compared to H100 HBM3 the key details are that MemoryX has lower latency, but also far lower bandwidth. However the memory on Cerebras is scales a lot more over NVidia. You need a cluster of H100's to create a model, as only way to scale the memory, Cerbras is more suited to that aspect, Nvidia do their scaling in tooling, with Cerbras doing theirs in design via there silicon approach. That's my take on it all, not many apples to oranges comparisons to work from on these two system for even rolling down the same slope.
- perfobotto 1y agoNo way an offchip HBM has same or better bandwidth then onchip
- stingraycharles 1y agoSo, does that mean that in general for the most modern high end LLM tools, to generate ~1500 tokens per seconds you need around $500k in hardware? Checking: Anthropic charges $70 per 1 million output tokens. @1500 tokens per second that would be around 10 cents per second, or around $8k per day. The $500k sounds about right then, unless I’m mistaken.
- andruby 1y ago62 days to break even, that would be a great investment
- smcleod 1y agoThere is no reason to run models for inference at static fp16, modern quantisation formats dynamically assign precision to the layers that need them, an average of 6bpw is practical imperceptible from full precision, 8bpw if you really want to squeeze every tiny last drop out of it (although it's unlikely it will be detectable). That is a huge memory saving.
- nhecker 1y ago> dynamically assign precision to the layers that need them Well now I'm curious; how is a layer judged on its relative need for precision? I guess I still have a lot of learning to do w.r.t. how quantization is done. I was under the impression it was done once, statically, and produced a new giant GGUF blob or whatever format your weights are in. Does that assumption still hold true for the approach you're describing?
- irthomasthomas 1y agoLast I checked they ran some sort of evals before and after quantisation and measured the effect. E.g Exllama-v2 measures the loss while reciting Wikipedia articles.
- clownpenis_fart 1y ago[dead]
- smcleod 1y agoWithin the GGUF (and some other formats) you'll see each layer gets its own quantisation, for example embeddings layers are usually more sensitive to quantisation and as such are often kept at Q8 or FP16. If you run GGUF-dump or click on the GGUF icon on a model in huggingface you'll see.
- smcleod 1y agoHave a watch of https://youtu.be/vW30o4U9BFE https://youtu.be/vW30o4U9BFE
- 1y ago
- yvdriess 1y ago> With 44GB of SRAM per Cerebras chip, you'd need 45 chips chained together. $3m per chip. $135m total to run this. That on-chip SRAM memory is purely temporary working memory and does need to hold the entire model weights. The Cerebras chip works on a sparse weights representation, streams non-zero off their external memory server and the cores work in a transport-triggered dataflow manner.
- jsemrau 1y ago>Maybe hedge funds or some sort of financial markets? I'd think that HFT is already mature and doesn't really benefit from this type of model.
- rbanffy 1y agoTrue, but if the hardware could be “misused” for HFT, it’d be awesome.
- Adfeldman 1y agoOur chips don't cost $3M. I'm not sure where you got that number but its wildly incorrect.
- aurareturn 1y agoSo how much does it cost? Google search return $3m. Here's your chance to tell us your real price if you disagree.
- 1W6MIC49CYX9GAP 1y agoHe also didn't argue about the rest of the math so it's likely correct that the whole model needs to be in SRAM :)
- npsomaratna 1y agoAre you the CEO of Cerebras? (Guessing from the handle)
- rajnathani 1y agoI wonder why he (Andrew Feldman) didn't retort to the SRAM vs HBM memory incorrect assumption made by the OP comment; maybe he was so busy that he couldn't even cite the sibling comment? That's a bigger wrong assumption than being off by maybe 30-50% at most on Cerebras's single server price (it definitely doesn't cost less than $1.5-2M).
- aurareturn 1y agoProbably because they are loading the entire model into SRAM. Thats how they can achieve 1.5k tokens/s.
- benderbreaker 1y agoI have followed Cerebras for sometime. Several comments: 1. Yes I think that is Feldman. I have seen him intervene at hacerknews before thou don't remember the handle specifically 2. Yes, the OP technical assumption is generally correct. Cerebras load the model onto the wafer to get the speed. It's the whole point of their architecture to minimize the distance between memory and compute. They can do otherwise in a "low cost" model, they announced something like that in a partnership with Qualcomm that AFAIK has never been implemented. But it would not be a high-speed mode. 3. The OP is also incorrect on the costs. They pick these costs up from dated customer quotation seen online (in which the Cerebras has incentive to jack it up), but this is not how anything works commercially, and at that time Cerebras was at much smaller scale. But you wouldn't expect Feldman to tell you what their actual costs are. That would be nuts. My thinking is the number could be off by up to 80% by now assuming Cerebras was making progress in their cost curve and the original number had very high margins (which it must have).
- htrp 1y ago>Maybe hedge funds or some sort of financial markets? Definitely not hedge funds / quant funds. You'd just buy a dgx
- twothreeone 1y agoI think you're missing an important aspect: how many users do you want to support? > For comparison, you can buy a DGX B200 with 8x B200 Blackwell chips and 1.4TB of memory for around $500k. Two systems would give you 2.8TB memory which is enough for this. That would be enough to support a single user. If you want to host a service that provides this to 10k users in parallel your cost per user scales linearly with the GPU costs you posted. But we don't know how many users a comparable wafer-scale deployment can scale to (aside from the fact that the costs you posted for that are disputed by users down the thread as well), so your comparison is kind of meaningless in that way, you're missing data.
- coolspot 1y ago> That would be enough to support a single user. If you want to host a service that provides this to 10k users in parallel your cost per user scales linearly with the GPU costs you posted. No. Magic of batching allows you to handle multiple user requests in parallel using the same weights with little VRAM overhead per user.
- derefr 1y ago> We're still a few generations of hardware away I'm guessing. I don't know; I think we could be running models "as good as" Claude Opus 4, a few years down the line, with a lot less hardware — perhaps even going backwards, with "better" later models fitting on smaller, older — maybe even consumer-level — GPUs. Why do I say this? Because I get the distinct impression that "throwing more parameters at the problem" is the current batch of AI companies' version of "setting money on fire to scale." These companies are likely leaving huge amounts of (almost-lossless) optimization on the table, in the name of having a model now that can be sold at huge expense to those few customers who really want it and are willing to pay (think: intelligence agencies automating real-time continuous analysis of the conversations of people-of-interest). Having these "sloppy but powerful" models, also enables the startups themselves to make use of them in expensive one-time batch-processing passes, to e.g. clean and pluck outliers from their training datasets with ever-better accuracy. (Think of this as the AI version of "ETL data migration logic doesn't need to be particularly optimized; what's the difference between it running for 6 vs 8 hours, if we're only ever going to run it once? May as well code it in a high-level scripting language.") But there are only so many of these high-value customers to compete over, and only so intelligent these models need to get before achieving perfect accuracy on training-set data-cleaning tasks can be reduced to "mere" context engineering / agentic cross-validation. At some point, an inflection point will be passed where the marginal revenue to be earned from cost-reduced volume sales outweighs the marginal revenue to be earned from enterprise sales. And at that point, we'll likely start to see a huge shift in in-industry research in how these models are being architected and optimized. No longer would AI companies set their goal in a new model generation first as purely optimizing for intelligence on various leaderboards (ala the 1980s HPC race, motivated by serving many of the same enterprise customers!), and then, leaderboard score in hand, go back and re-optimize to make the intelligent model spit tokens faster when run on distributed backplanes (metric: tokens per watt-second). But instead, AI companies would likely move to a combined optimization goal of training models from scratch to retain high-fidelity intelligent inference capabilities on lower-cost substrates — while minimizing work done [because that's what OEMs running local versions of their models want] and therefore minimizing "useless motion" of semantically-meaningless tokens. (Implied metric: bits of Shannon informational content generated per (byte-of-ram x GPU FLOP x second)).
- makestuff 1y agoI agree there will be some breakthrough (maybe by Nvidia or maybe someone else) that allows these models to run insanely cheap and even locally on a laptop. I could see a hardware company coming out with some sort of specialized card that is just for consumer grade inference for common queries. That way the cloud can be used for sever side inference and training.
- nroets 1y ago1500 tokens/s is 5.4 million per hour. According to the document it costs $1.20 x 5.4 = $6.48 per hour. Which is not enough to even pay the interest on one $3m chip. What am I missing here ?
- cgdl 1y agoIndeed, and even if the cost per wafer was 300K, since about say 20-50 wafers are needed, its still 6MM to 15MM for the system. So likely it would appear this is VC subsidized.
- cgdl 1y agoExactly what I was thinking. What sort of latency do you think one would get with 8x B200 Blackwell chips? Do you think 1500 tokens/sec would be achievable in that setup?
- recursivecaveat 1y agoThe metric of run/not-run is too simplistic. You have to divide out the total throughout the system gives to all concurrent users (which we don't know). Like a golf-cart can get you from New York to LA same as a train, but the unit economics of the train are a lot more favorable, despite its increased cost. The minimum deployment scale is not irrelevant, it may make it infeasible to run an on-prem solution for most customers for eg, but if you are selling tokens via a big cloud API it doesn't really matter.