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Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future
- ctoth 1y agoDo you want paperclips? Because this is how you get paperclips! Eliminate all agents, all sources of change, all complexity - anything that could introduce unpredictability, and it suddenly becomes far easier to predict the future, no?
- JoshTriplett 1y ago> Do you want paperclips? Because this is how you get paperclips! Don't^W worry, there are many other ways of getting paperclips, and we're doing all of them.
- sitkack 1y agoEven explaining how not to get paper clips, gets you paper clips when you can invert the loss function. Paper clips for everyone!
- vlovich123 1y agoI don't know. Paperclips are awful useful. Would it be so bad to build more of them?
- throwaway71271 1y agohttps://www.decisionproblem.com/paperclips/index2.html https://www.decisionproblem.com/paperclips/index2.html go ahead :)
- Ygg2 1y agoThat's all fun and games until paperclip maximizers starts looking at your blood as source of iron.
- valine 1y agoSo instead of next token prediction its next event prediction. At some point this just loops around and we're back to teaching models to predict the next token in the sequence.
- lumost 1y agoTokens are an awfully convenient way to describe an event.
- phyalow 1y agoTokens are just discretized state representations.
- ww520 1y agoIt’s the next state. So instead of spitting out words, it will spit out a whole movie, or a sequence of world states in a game or simulation.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- amelius 1y agoWhy would you use RL if you're not going to control the environment, but just predict it?
- TOMDM 1y agoBecause they're training a predictor, not an agent?
- jldugger 1y agoFrom the abstract > A simple trading rule turns this calibration edge into $127 of hypothetical profit versus $92 for o1 (p = 0.037). I'm lazy: is this hypothetical shooting fish in a barrel, or is it a real edge?
- nyrikki 1y agoNote the 'hypothetical profit' part , I know of several groups looking for opportunities to skim off LLM traders, leveraging its limited sensitivity, expressiveness, and the loss of tail data. Predictive AI is problematic no matter what tool you use. Great at demoware that doesn't deliver. I am sure there are use cases, but it would be augmentation, not a reliable approach by itself.
- garbagecoder 1y ago"a couple of wavy lines" bzzzzz "sorry this isn't your lucky day"