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New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

385 points by prossercj 1y ago

floxy 1y ago
That's great news. I wonder how much insurance rates will go down when autonomous vehicles get popular. Seems like the liability portion could go way down.
- xnx 1y ago
  It's a 3x effect for insurance agencies: 1) Google/Waymo doesn't buy insurance for their vehicles 2) Waymo vehicles are much less likely to cause accidents 3) Waymo vehicles actively avoid being hit and calm traffic overall
  - ziddoap 1y ago
    I'm not super familiar with this space, or laws where Waymo is active, what do you mean Google/Waymo don't buy insurance for their vehicles? Is having insurance not legally required? Do they just pay out when there's an accident where they injure someone?
    - jmm5 1y ago
      Large companies with fleets of vehicles often self-insure.
      - ziddoap 1y ago
        Interesting! When I was much younger, I worked for a couple companies that had (what I would consider) large fleets of vehicles, and they all were insured through an insurance company. I guess I just assumed that's how it was. I wasn't aware self-insuring was a possibility. Thanks.
        floxy 1y ago
        Self-driving is probably still new enough that insurance companies wouldn't have good actuarial data to properly price the risks, so they'd just have to charge exorbitant rates.
        bluGill 1y ago
        Companies can self insure. That doesn't mean they have to. Your accountant can run the numbers to figure out if it is worth it. Often self insure means they still pay an insurance company to handle the paperwork, but when there is a claim the company pays it.
        lesuorac 1y ago
        While I'm not sure of the specifics for car insurance. For health care, a lot of large companies technically have say Anthem or whatever but the company pays out all of the claims and it's just administered by Anthem. So you may have seen a similar thing where all claims were handled by say Geico but it's not Geico's pot of money paying out claims.
    - pavon 1y ago
      In many states, including CA, individuals can post a bond instead of carrying insurance. Companies with fleets of vehicles can also self-insure. In both cases the car owner is liable to pay any damages that insurance would normally pay.
    - pests 1y ago
      It has been classic lore that Bill Gates couldn't get anyone to insure him after his younger years (see classic mugshot photo used as the silhouette) so he had to self insure. Not sure if completely true but I remember the stories.
- AIPedant 1y ago
  The problem is that Waymos can't replace cars (or even Ubers!) since they depend on human oversight and problem-solving. Even at a 20:1 ratio it is not feasible for autonomous vehicles to employ 10m people to account for every American on the road.
  - Scaevolus 1y ago
    The human oversight is mostly to tell off people breaking rules in the cars, not to fix the driving, and is quite easy to automate as they scale.
    - AIPedant 1y ago
      That might be what human overseers are mostly doing minute-to-minute but it's not why it's necessary. The problem is AI simply does not have the real-world problem solving ability to handle all the minor inconveniences and surprises on the road.
  - josefritzishere 1y ago
    This does not sound scalable.
  - worldsayshi 1y ago
    Why can't it replace Ubers?
  - ttoinou 1y ago
    Those people dont have to be americans though
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - IrishTechie 1y ago
    Americans only spend 3% of their time driving, so it's maybe closer to 300k than 10m. Still not scalable at that though so the key will be driving that 20:1 up, which seems very possible given enough time.
cratermoon 1y ago
Waymo says Waymo is safe. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-16/woman-gets-millions-after-getting-dragged-by-self-driving-taxi-in-san-francisco https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-16/woman-ge...
- floxy 1y ago
  Seems like it would more informative to link to an issue with Waymo instead of Cruise.
- returningfory2 1y ago
  Tens of thousands of Americas are killed every year in car crashes. The existence of a case or some cases where a self-driving car caused injury has zero value. What matters is the rate of cases per mile driven.
  - timewizard 1y ago
    The US drives about 3.2 trillion miles per year. Waymo has 56.7 million miles over several years. Their percentage data is essentially useless. 50% of fatalities involve alcohol or drugs and are often single vehicle accidents. 25% involve youth or inexperience. 15% involve motorcycles. 15% involve pedestrians. What I really need to see is a complete breakdown of every accident a Waymo has had. Then I can start to compare their actual performance to the previously known outcomes.
    - p_j_w 1y ago
      > The US drives about 3.2 trillion miles per year. Waymo has 56.7 million miles over several years. Their percentage data is essentially useless. Your third sentence doesn’t follow from your first two. On what grounds do you draw this conclusion?
    - prasadjoglekar 1y ago
      This is the statistic I was hoping to see. It wasn't in the paper as best as I looked.
lucasrim 1y ago
Was genuinely impressed when I took my first Waymo, not only for comfort, but the small microdecisions it made as a driver. As a person whose lost a parent to a sleepy driver, and a victim to 2 texting drivers, I welcome AI driving revolution.
- FredPret 1y ago
  Sorry for your loss. I hope we get road deaths to 0.
carlgreene 1y ago
This will surely get some skepticism as it's a Waymo study, but it's nice to see a real‐world dataset this large at 56M miles. An 85 % drop in serious‐injury crashes and 96 % fewer intersection collisions is a strong signal that Level 4 ADS can meaningfully improve safety in ride-hail settings. Still curious about how much of that comes from operational design versus the core autonomy, but it’s a big leap beyond “novelty demo.” Really excited for autonomy to become more and more common place. People drive more and more like distracted lunatics these days it seems
- buckle8017 1y ago
  It's an incentive problem. Uber/Lyft drivers are strongly incentivized to drive as quickly and aggressively as possible. The individual drivers are trading risk for cash. A company like Google isn't going to make that trade because it's actually the wrong trade across millions of hours.
  - somanyphotons 1y ago
    I may be out-of-date here, but I had thought the accelerometers in the phone detected if drivers were too jerky in the movements of the car and that the drivers would be informed of poor service
    - pests 1y ago
      DoorDash (so food not people) will give you a report for hard braking / acceleration but it doesn't actually affect anything afaict.
  - Terr_ 1y ago
    Good point: Part of Waymo's safety stats comes from settings that are probably tuned right now in favor of safety stats even if it means a longer or less-profitable ride. It doesn't care if you're going to lose your job if you're five minutes late. So a fairer comparison would be contrasting Waymo rides to trips conducted by the Ultra Safe Even If It's Slower Chauffeur Company.
shihabkhanbd 1y ago
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kfarr 1y ago
This is great and there’s another area of influence that I’ve heard other traffic engineers discuss: platoon pacing. A platoon is the word that traffic engineers give to a group of cars traveling together. A platoon is most explicitly visible on a corridor with signals timed for a green wave, but occurs in many other contexts. Human drivers often race when in a platoon— not even on purpose it’s just an instinct to go as fast or faster than other cars which has a feedback effect to increase platoon speed. Waymos, following the exact speed limit, don’t do this. On 1 lane streets they literally set the platoon pace to the legal speed limit. The effect of this is hard to study and quantify but it’s a real and positive impact of self driving cars on city streets. Haven’t seen research on this topic yet.
- wffurr 1y ago
  This also came up recently in a thread about speed governors: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43812856 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43812856 Just a few governor-equipped vehicles (e.g. from public fleets or prior speeding offenders) can reduce speeding on the whole road.
  - sneak 1y ago
    On most roads, speeding isn’t a safety issue and shouldn’t be discouraged, as road throughput is important. Speed limits are usually set too low due to standardized inflexible policies or desire for revenue. On some roads, however, it is a massive safety issue, and everyone is driving unsafely because the road is designed badly for its intended purpose. (So-called “stroads” are the canonical example.)
    - chris1993 1y ago
      It’s an issue for everyone not in a car
    - Mawr 1y ago
      Yeah and we should definitely leave deciding the appropriate speed to the drivers. Because, uh, throughput is important, got it. Is safety important? Who knows, but throughput definitely is!
femiagbabiaka 1y ago
Anecdotally, as someone who bikes a lot in SF, Waymo's are a lot safer than human drivers simply because they follow the letter of traffic laws. Stopping at stop signs, waiting for pedestrians to clear the box, following the posted speed limits, etc.
- matttproud 1y ago
  I was just on a business trip to San Francisco for a few days, and I observed the near opposite of this from the Waymo fleet in SoMa: * Waymo vehicle creeping into the pedestrian crosswalk (while the pedestrians had right of way to cross), which caused someone to have to walk around the car into the intersection ahead of the Waymo. * Waymo vehicle entering a dedicated bike lane and practically tailgating the bicyclist that was ahead of it. These might be safer than human drivers in aggregate and normalized by kilometer driven, but they drive like humans — greedily and non-defensively. I wouldn't want one these anywhere near a high-pedestrian traffic area ever, and I feel the same about human-driven cars, too.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    Neither of the examples you cite strike me as particularly dangerous nor even illegal. The pedestrians were given the right of way. And entering bike lanes is fine for crossing or short distances where merited unless grade separated.
    - matttproud 1y ago
      A vehicle that becomes blocked in a crosswalk is unsafe for pedestrians who want to use that crosswalk if it forces the pedestrians to walk around the blocking vehicle. There are crosswalks in SoMa that provide for 45 seconds or more of crossing time. A Waymo that enters one of these crosswalks after 15 seconds into the 45 seconds allocation blocks the crosswalk for the remainder of the 30 seconds. This presents an unsafe situation for all existing and future pedestrians (e.g., a pedestrian who inadvertently steps into the intersection while trying to go around the blocking vehicle). We also know that in North America that the municipal services skimp on grade separation for bike lanes for budget and political reasons. I did bike in San Francisco when I lived there, and these non-shared colored lanes never ever felt safe. I can guarantee that if you leave your North American context for a couple of years and come back to it you'll find CA Vehicle Code § 21453 unsatisfactory.
wkat4242 1y ago
In Holland we have this saying (based on an old commercial): "We from WC Duck recommend... WC Duck". (Which is a toilet cleaning product) It was a funny ad at the time. Unfortunately based in reality more and more these days.
- standardUser 1y ago
  I'm quick to discount reports that are "by the industry for the industry", but few industries are as transparent as self-driving taxis due to the strict operating laws in most jurisdictions.
- OJFord 1y ago
  This is almost all research though. (Medical) doctors aren't in the habit of doing longitudinal studies on procedures they don't do because they don't believe in them. (I mean, for one thing, where would they get the data!) But that's why you have peer review, further studies from different authors perhaps on competing methods that point out some flaws in your approach, etc.
- TulliusCicero 1y ago
  Obviously the study should be taken with a grain of salt, given the source, but at least it is a study with actual data, that's been peer reviewed.
indigodaddy 1y ago
How do AI cars fare with those instinctual "decide which way to swerve in a split-second" scenarios that come up maybe once every 10-20 years over the course of a driver's history?? It's happened to me about 2-3 times and I've always made the "(assumedly) correct" split second swerve decision. Wondering if that is a "human/instinctual" skill and if AI cars do just as well or better, or perhaps not as good? I don't have any evidence backing this but my gut tells me these scenarios are something that a human driver would handle better than AI.
- OJFord 1y ago
  Probably better? 'Who' can process more data faster is likely impossible to answer, but (e.g.) Waymo can train on those scenarios and have way more 'experience' than any individual driver who's seen it once every 10-20 years of their driving career.
  - indigodaddy 1y ago
    Yeah it's interesting, these scenarios are generally at high speeds on an interstate highway, and generally involve some level of predicting what the villain driver is going to do (split second prediction though mind you, it all happens in the blink of an eye), and sometimes the right thing to do is to swerve (if no one is adjacent in surrounding lanes) whilst either not using the brake at all or almost no braking. Basically avoid the brake and do your quick swerve after you've confirmed there is no one in the left/right adjacent lane or close enough behind you. Once again this all happens in the blink of an eye. Perhaps AI would be better? I'm not complete sold though..
    - creer 1y ago
      One big difference in favor of the software is your "after you've confirmed there is no one in the left/right adjacent lane or close enough behind you." The car has been looking in every direction the whole ride. The car already knows what there is to know about all the neighbours. A huge advantage over the human driver. I feel also that the car having a far better experience of its kinematics / dynamics / features is also a huge advantage - see the good old drifting parallel parking videos. After that there is the concern about computing reaction time. Can it get stuck hesitating? Clearly the cars hesitate a lot in generally safe places. But we have seen some videos already of a Waymo very smoothly dodging someone running out from in between cars (they were already tracked), and someone mentioned a scooter incident. Hopefully we'll see more videos of emergency responses. Another comment mentions "r/waymo or r/selfdrivingcars for lots of videos of Waymos avoiding objects."
johnfn 1y ago
As someone who is often on SF city streets without a car - I bike and run a lot - I absolutely love Waymo. I am continuously seeing human drivers cut me off, perform illegal maneuvers (i.e. run red lights when I'm going through a crosswalk), and break various other traffic laws. All these things genuinely put people in danger. Just the other day, a guy started running a "no right turn on red" lane in SF, and when I pointed it out to him he floored his car - through the red - right in front of me and laughed at me as he sped away. To say nothing of all the times when cars will honk or give me the finger for doing normal things on a street, like walking on a crosswalk. Waymo is like the most courteous, respectful driver you can possibly imagine. They have infinite patience and will always take the option which is the safest for everyone. One thing which really impressed me is how patient they are at crosswalks. When I'm jogging, a Waymo will happily wait for me to cross - even when I'm 10 feet away from even entering the crosswalk! I don't know if I even have that much patience while driving! I've had a number of near misses with human drivers who don't bother checking or accelerate for no reason after I'm already in the crosswalk. Can you imagine a Waymo ever doing that? If I see a Waymo on the street near me I immediately feel safer because I know it is not about to commit some unhinged behavior. I cannot say enough good things about them.
- biophysboy 1y ago
  I am also hopeful that Waymo has other positive externalities for bikes/pedestrians: less need for parking spots, car ownership, etc. At the same time, I guess you could say the same for rideshare, so it would depend on if robo-rideshare is cheaper than ownership
  - VOIPThrowaway 1y ago
    My prediction is that car usage will go thought the roof when AI cars work. People can have a stress-free commute to a nice house in the countryside and work in the cities. Because the car is electric, it will be inexpensive to run.
    - biophysboy 1y ago
      well, I guess my hope is that renting a car whenever needed is cheaper than the cost of purchasing, maintaining, insuring, and storing a personal robocar. It would be quite hard to make the US more car-dependent than it already is! But I am speculating - you may very well be right
starik36 1y ago
They operate in Los Angeles on the city streets in a square between Marina Del Ray and West Hollywood. They can definitely do better when taking left turns. I've seen situations where Waymo depends on the oncoming drivers to slow down.
- shreezus 1y ago
  It's a bit further than that, the service area now extends to DTLA / Arts District and south toward Inglewood (likely to support LAX soon).
renewiltord 1y ago
For cycling and walking in SF, the Waymos are optimal. If there's one at the front of the line at the red light I know I won't be right hooked as I go straight in the bike lane. Very well-behaved. I am so glad they're here. Some concentration of them actually ruin crazy drivers' ability to do damage because they set the speed limit and won't go through reds.
asdsadasdasd123 1y ago
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Flatcircle 1y ago
reminder that if waymo type cars replaced human driven cars and cut the deaths to zero. (perhaps a big if) Then it'd be like finding a cure for cancer, for people aged 0 - 40, who die as much in auto accidents as they do of cancer
- bluGill 1y ago
  Even if they don't cut deaths to zero, they can still make a big difference. Humans are terrible drivers.
davidczech 1y ago
For what it's worth, I have exclusively used Waymo in SF ever since my last Uber driver was smoking weed while driving. I just don't want to deal with the human variable anymore.
- ycombinatrix 1y ago
  Waymo is a nice guy, he will definitely share his weed with you
robmsmt 1y ago
Waymo is part of my investment thesis as to why Google is undervalued
- intexpress 1y ago
  Public transport is undervalued
  - tekno45 1y ago
    If they slapped this on busses i'd be okay with taxes paying for it.
condiment 1y ago
So, what’s it gonna take for Waymo to start selling retrofit kits for existing cars? If a $10,000 investment reduces the chances of a serious accident by 90%, the corresponding reduction in insurance rates might have a payoff within a few years. Especially if adoption starts to push rates up for customers who don’t automate. I can’t take a taxi everywhere, but I’d sure like it if my car drove me everywhere and did a better job than me at it too.
- bluGill 1y ago
  They need to work everywhere. How do they do in snow/ice (humans do really bad here - but where I live it happens often enough that we often cannot stay home or we would spend weeks in the house) Don't get my wrong, I'm hoping it is soon. However they have a lot of work left.
  - Ylpertnodi 1y ago
    Perhaps, in the same way you may not need an aircoditioner (due to your location), it would probably not be the best for waymo to market itself as 'suitable for all conditions, ymmv, lol'.
- porphyra 1y ago
  It honestly feels like they spend years validating each new platform, e.g. the Zeekr was announced years ago and only recently are they very rarely seen on the streets but only as Waymo Engineering mules. Likewise the transition from the Chrysler Pacifica to the I-Pace took a while. Hopefully they figure something out to scale up to more platforms soon. They announced a partnership with Hyundai a few years ago, also with nothing to show for it. Of course, safety first, so they should take their time and not rush things...
  - AlotOfReading 1y ago
    The zeekr vehicles were heavily affected by changing regulations and tariffs around Chinese made automobiles. The Hyundai vehicles haven't started production yet. They're in an awkward situation because they made a bad prediction about the political direction without a backup plan and it went south right as they were entering production.
ordinaryradical 1y ago
Literally riding in a Waymo right now in Los Angeles. IMO they already won. The amount of stupid things you see people do here while driving is astonishing, so many people are not paying attention and looking at their phones. I used an Uber on the way here and the car was dirtier while the service was identical (silent ride, got me where I needed to go.) I’ve also been stuck in a Waymo that couldn’t figure out its way around parked buses, so they have edge cases to improve. But man does it feel like I’m living in the future…
- jessriedel 1y ago
  > I used an Uber on the way here and the car was dirtier To be fair, the fact that Waymos are fancy clean Jaguars is kind of ancillary to the main technology. The tech is currently expensive, so they are targeting the luxury market, which you can also get on Uber if you select a black car or whatever. The people willing to pay for that are less likely to make messes, and the drivers put more effort into frequent cleanings. Once the tech becomes cheap, expect the car quality and cleanliness to go down. Robocars do have some intrinsic advantages in that it's easier to set up a standard daily cleaning process, but they will still accumulate more garbage and stains when they are used by a broader cross section of the population and only cleaned during charging to reduce costs. (Of course, cheaper and more widely accessible tech is good for everyone; if you want a immaculate leather seats cleaned three times a day, you'll generally be able to pay for it.)
  - kajecounterhack 1y ago
    I don't think the Jaguars are particularly spacious or nice. They just got a good deal on the platform. If anything, given the commodity nature of vehicles I'd expect car quality to improve. Cleanliness doesn't seem that related to how expensive the tech is either - if anything it would only go down if it ceased to affect willingness to pay. As it stands, clean cars are important to their customers. If usage increases, cleaning can ostensibly increase too, no?
    - jessriedel 1y ago
topherPedersen 1y ago
I saw a Waymo stop at a crosswalk last night in the dark where there was a person standing there waiting to cross that I don't think I would have seen. The person was not standing out in the road, they were standing there patiently waiting to make sure the car actually stopped since it was dark. I was really impressed! I don't think I'm a reckless or impatient driver, but I think the Waymo's are probably better at driving than I am. I know I prefer the Waymos to the human drivers I typically see on the road.
paulnpace 1y ago
While driving a car, it is possible to do something, even on accident, that can land a person in jail. These crimes do not have the option of paying a fine in lieu of prison time. A "self-driving" car can cause the same accident but gain advantages over a human driver that the person ultimately responsible is no longer held to the same set of laws. This seems to undermine foundations of law, placing the owners of those assets into a different legal category from the rest of us.
- porphyra 1y ago
  Currently, penalties for, say, killing someone while driving are already incredibly light. * Driver whose vehicle struck and killed girl gets $1,200 fine" [1] * Driver who allegedly struck and killed Staten Island baby charged with $750 fine and 15 days in jail [2] * Driver who hit Jets assistant coach Greg Knapp won't be charged following his death [3] [1] https://vancouversun.com/news/driver-whose-vehicle-struck-and-killed-toddler-gets-1200-fine-and-probation https://vancouversun.com/news/driver-whose-vehicle-struck-an... [2] https://nypost.com/2022/05/27/shannon-cocozza-who-allegedly-struck-killed-staten-island-baby-charged-cops/ https://nypost.com/2022/05/27/shannon-cocozza-who-allegedly-... [3] https://people.com/sports/driver-who-hit-jets-assistant-coach-greg-knapp-wont-be-charged/ https://people.com/sports/driver-who-hit-jets-assistant-coac...
  - paulnpace 1y ago
    These are examples application of law, such as decisions from prosecutors or a judicial system.
vzaliva 1y ago
One way to inteprent their data is that Waymo is LESS efficient protecting cyclists and motorcyclists compared to pedestriants. As a motorcycle rider I hope they will work to fix that gap.
- floxy 1y ago
  What seems more likely, that Waymo is prioritizing pedestrian safety over cyclist safety? Or cyclists are much more likely to engage in risky behavior?
  - ndsipa_pomu 1y ago
    Maybe it's that cyclists are more likely to be trying to use the road and waymo is prioritising driving on the roads rather than the sidewalk?
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
boulos 1y ago
For those that are interested, our Safety Research team also makes the underlying data available for download: https://waymo.com/safety/impact/#downloads https://waymo.com/safety/impact/#downloads (I don't work on that team, but I've noticed a few comments that would be better served with their own analysis on top of the available data)
m0llusk 1y ago
It's a great start, but also shows how driving is not a navigation challenge as much as it is a socialization challenge. If I drove right up to some responders dealing with an emergency and repeatedly refused to stop then I could be in big legal trouble and could end up with fines and possibly an arrest. This has not happened with Waymo vehicles because there is legal ambiguity about who is responsible in such cases. Realistic analysis shows these vehicles have a driving record similar to that of overconfident teens which is worrisome.
oceansky 1y ago
This article has a huge conflict of interest. I would like more independent data.
- louwrentius 1y ago
  Seems like the rest of the HN crowd is swooning over Waymo. Nothing but glowing reviews. As they become the monopolist, like they always do, watch how they’ll run the age old playbook to destroy the market and then hike prices. I’m not against self-driving cars. I’m against self-driving cars owned by a few megacorps, that will have even control and surveillance capabilities in addition to what’s already in your pocket.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > I’m not against self-driving cars. I’m against self-driving cars owned by a few megacorps Perfect is the enemy of the good. This sort of technological NIMBYism is, in practice, opposition to self-driving cars and their safety benefits.
    - louwrentius 1y ago
      Not even my point and this isn’t about the tech but about the societal context.
    - GuinansEyebrows 1y ago
      a few megacorps cornering an entire market is Not Good
Rover222 1y ago
Can we mention that drivers using Tesla’s FSD are 5x less likely to be in an accident than human drivers? Or all things Elon bad?
- boshalfoshal 1y ago
  This may be true, but paradoxically, the data might be slightly skewed since Tesla's driver monitoring system (which is only active during autopilot) actively rewards drivers who are paying attention. So is the accident rate lower because people are forced to be more attentive during FSD? Or is it genuinely lower (i.e, if you took out the driver, would there be less accidents)? To be fair, I'd still wager that yes, FSD is probably statistically way better than the average driver. Maybe some combination of miles per intervention + accident data would give more insights into that.
  - Rover222 1y ago
    Yes good point that the human monitoring plays a role. Wouldn’t account for all of that, since humans are more actively monitoring normal cars.
- Mawr 1y ago
  You mean, according to the unbiased Tesla, drivers using Tesla's FSD in the select areas and conditions it's allowed to operate in are 5x less likely to be in an accident than human drivers that operate in all areas and conditions? Sure.
  - Rover222 1y ago
    No. Just data from their fleet which is released in a large report. But you’re clearly too biased to think in your own.
Antony90807 1y ago
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hnburnsy 1y ago
>The research finds that, compared to human benchmarks over 56.7 million miles and regardless of who was at fault, the Waymo Driver had [list of better than human stats] Well considering this sensor package... >With 13 cameras, 4 lidar, 6 radar, and an array of external audio receivers (EARs), our new sensor suite is optimized for greater performance...it provides the Waymo Driver with overlapping fields of view, all around the vehicle, up to 500 meters away, day and night, and in a range of weather conditions.[0] ...I would hope it is considerably better than humans who are limited to a sensor suite of two cameras and two lower-case ears. [0] - https://waymo.com/blog/2024/08/meet-the-6th-generation-waymo-driver/ https://waymo.com/blog/2024/08/meet-the-6th-generation-waymo...
90d 1y ago
Waymo is using public roads 25/7 for automating profit and not paying fair taxes.
etaioinshrdlu 1y ago
While Waymo is good for safety, it is constantly collecting data not just from users, but from everyone nearby. The vehicles essentially function as mobile surveillance devices, recording bystanders without consent, with no clear policies on data use, retention, or oversight.
ringeryless 1y ago
i am suspicious of all the anti-human-driver comments and all the dismissal of any concerns about Waymo in the comments here. I am not convinced that public testing of such services is safe, let alone commercial service. One cannot punish a self driving vehicle in any meaningful sense. Corporate incentives vs the public commons, is a general concern that cannot be sweettalked away. The metaphors about human drivers recording you also seem like reductio ad absurdum. puff pieces like this should not be well received on HN or it discredits any pretence at separation of concerns with regards to HN and ycomb.
- squigz 1y ago
  > One cannot punish a self driving vehicle in any meaningful sense. One can fine the companies and executives. > puff pieces like this should not be well received on HN or it discredits any pretence at separation of concerns with regards to HN and ycomb. Mate... what pretense? Don't ever forget that HN and YC are the same; you'll have a much better time understanding the community.
- Ukv 1y ago
  > i am suspicious of all the anti-human-driver comments [...] I am not convinced that public testing of such services is safe There are currently over a million fatalities from road traffic crashes every year, being the leading cause of death for the 5-29 year age group[0]. I'd claim that inaction is unacceptably dangerous/deadly here and that, to minimize deaths, we need to be aggressive in trying out and pushing forward potential solutions. > One cannot punish a self driving vehicle in any meaningful sense. The goal of punishment for driving offenses is, in my eyes, largely about reducing unsafe behavior - not just to make someone suffer. Fines/incentives for manufacturers and fine-tuning of models based on incident data should fulfill this purpose. [0]: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffi...
  - suddenlybananas 1y ago
    Why not just build public transit and reduce car dependency? The technology has been here for decades and decades.
ringeryless 1y ago
what's up with all the waymo sycophantry here? choruses repeating the same claims "its ok for waymo to enter the bike lane" "yeah, waymo is right" "yes, good waymo entering the bike lane because reasons" this is blatantly obvious and unacceptable. the site rules prohibit accusations of astroturfing but that is precisely what is going on here. precisely no sf programmers were convinced, either. this site had better be concerned with future legitimacy and not being seen as a puppet of specific corps like waymo.
ringeryless 1y ago
I've noticed that nearly ANY criticism here is grayed out. HN has a credibility problem here.
enigma101 1y ago
source waymo.com???
irrational 1y ago
A few weeks ago we were in Santa Monica on vacation. This was my first time seeing Waymo vehicles in the wild. We did see one blatantly run a red light, well after the light had changed. Fortunately no car was crossing at the same time. It wasn’t like the sun was somehow obscuring the traffic light at that time. I was surprised it did something so unsafe.
cadamsdotcom 1y ago
Why is Waymo waiting so long to roll out more broadly?
- suddenlybananas 1y ago
  Probably because not everywhere has such nice weather.
drunner 1y ago
Once self driving cars take over and fill the streets with gridlock autonomous traffic, the only way to get around in a city is going to be by bike. Its great to here their algorithms are good for cyclists, a better solution is to keep investing in infrastructure that separates cyclists completely from cars.
paul7986 1y ago
Waymo per their track record I trust and am excited to try / use it once it comes to DC or another city close to DC. All the other big names that are no longer around... their tech was dangerous and definitely not ready for prime time. Their tech and focus seemed all about making all involved wealthy or wealthier.
BrandoElFollito 1y ago
We don't have waymo in France and I am not sure it wrote work well. Streets in France are full of entitled people. Drivers, bikers (both bikes with pedals and the ones with an engine) and pedestrians. Everyone thinks that they have all the rights but ultimately some kind of order emerges from the chaos. Pedestrians will walk on red lights, but are also careful. Cars will park anywhere, but usually in a way that is just really frustrating but not blocking. Bikes will slalom, but to a point. This does not always work, but it is so much driven by culture that somehow we are statistically alive when moving outside. Personally I hate it with all my heart. I dream of the dystopian world where everyone will follow the rules.
- GuinansEyebrows 1y ago
  would you like to trade your french citizenship for my american citizenship?
kjkjadksj 1y ago
Well yeah, they stack the deck in their favor. They avoid very hilly roads. They don’t yet go on the freeway. And they don’t get drunk or tired or distracted. That being said I’d like to see how a typical “good” driver compares vs the average. Someone who doesn’t speed or get duis and gets plenty rest.

385 points by prossercj 1y ago

That's great news. I wonder how much insurance rates will go down when autonomous vehicles get popular. Seems like the liability portion could go way down.

xnx 1y ago
It's a 3x effect for insurance agencies: 1) Google/Waymo doesn't buy insurance for their vehicles 2) Waymo vehicles are much less likely to cause accidents 3) Waymo vehicles actively avoid being hit and calm traffic overall
- ziddoap 1y ago
  I'm not super familiar with this space, or laws where Waymo is active, what do you mean Google/Waymo don't buy insurance for their vehicles? Is having insurance not legally required? Do they just pay out when there's an accident where they injure someone?
  - jmm5 1y ago
    Large companies with fleets of vehicles often self-insure.
    - ziddoap 1y ago
      Interesting! When I was much younger, I worked for a couple companies that had (what I would consider) large fleets of vehicles, and they all were insured through an insurance company. I guess I just assumed that's how it was. I wasn't aware self-insuring was a possibility. Thanks.
      - floxy 1y ago
        Self-driving is probably still new enough that insurance companies wouldn't have good actuarial data to properly price the risks, so they'd just have to charge exorbitant rates.
      - bluGill 1y ago
        Companies can self insure. That doesn't mean they have to. Your accountant can run the numbers to figure out if it is worth it. Often self insure means they still pay an insurance company to handle the paperwork, but when there is a claim the company pays it.
      - lesuorac 1y ago
        While I'm not sure of the specifics for car insurance. For health care, a lot of large companies technically have say Anthem or whatever but the company pays out all of the claims and it's just administered by Anthem. So you may have seen a similar thing where all claims were handled by say Geico but it's not Geico's pot of money paying out claims.
  - pavon 1y ago
    In many states, including CA, individuals can post a bond instead of carrying insurance. Companies with fleets of vehicles can also self-insure. In both cases the car owner is liable to pay any damages that insurance would normally pay.
  - pests 1y ago
    It has been classic lore that Bill Gates couldn't get anyone to insure him after his younger years (see classic mugshot photo used as the silhouette) so he had to self insure. Not sure if completely true but I remember the stories.
AIPedant 1y ago
The problem is that Waymos can't replace cars (or even Ubers!) since they depend on human oversight and problem-solving. Even at a 20:1 ratio it is not feasible for autonomous vehicles to employ 10m people to account for every American on the road.
- Scaevolus 1y ago
  The human oversight is mostly to tell off people breaking rules in the cars, not to fix the driving, and is quite easy to automate as they scale.
  - AIPedant 1y ago
    That might be what human overseers are mostly doing minute-to-minute but it's not why it's necessary. The problem is AI simply does not have the real-world problem solving ability to handle all the minor inconveniences and surprises on the road.
- josefritzishere 1y ago
  This does not sound scalable.
- worldsayshi 1y ago
  Why can't it replace Ubers?
- ttoinou 1y ago
  Those people dont have to be americans though
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- IrishTechie 1y ago
  Americans only spend 3% of their time driving, so it's maybe closer to 300k than 10m. Still not scalable at that though so the key will be driving that 20:1 up, which seems very possible given enough time.

cratermoon 1y ago

Waymo says Waymo is safe. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-16/woman-gets-millions-after-getting-dragged-by-self-driving-taxi-in-san-francisco https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-16/woman-ge...

floxy 1y ago
Seems like it would more informative to link to an issue with Waymo instead of Cruise.
returningfory2 1y ago
Tens of thousands of Americas are killed every year in car crashes. The existence of a case or some cases where a self-driving car caused injury has zero value. What matters is the rate of cases per mile driven.
- timewizard 1y ago
  The US drives about 3.2 trillion miles per year. Waymo has 56.7 million miles over several years. Their percentage data is essentially useless. 50% of fatalities involve alcohol or drugs and are often single vehicle accidents. 25% involve youth or inexperience. 15% involve motorcycles. 15% involve pedestrians. What I really need to see is a complete breakdown of every accident a Waymo has had. Then I can start to compare their actual performance to the previously known outcomes.
  - p_j_w 1y ago
    > The US drives about 3.2 trillion miles per year. Waymo has 56.7 million miles over several years. Their percentage data is essentially useless. Your third sentence doesn’t follow from your first two. On what grounds do you draw this conclusion?
  - prasadjoglekar 1y ago
    This is the statistic I was hoping to see. It wasn't in the paper as best as I looked.

lucasrim 1y ago

Was genuinely impressed when I took my first Waymo, not only for comfort, but the small microdecisions it made as a driver. As a person whose lost a parent to a sleepy driver, and a victim to 2 texting drivers, I welcome AI driving revolution.

FredPret 1y ago
Sorry for your loss. I hope we get road deaths to 0.

carlgreene 1y ago

This will surely get some skepticism as it's a Waymo study, but it's nice to see a real‐world dataset this large at 56M miles. An 85 % drop in serious‐injury crashes and 96 % fewer intersection collisions is a strong signal that Level 4 ADS can meaningfully improve safety in ride-hail settings. Still curious about how much of that comes from operational design versus the core autonomy, but it’s a big leap beyond “novelty demo.” Really excited for autonomy to become more and more common place. People drive more and more like distracted lunatics these days it seems

buckle8017 1y ago
It's an incentive problem. Uber/Lyft drivers are strongly incentivized to drive as quickly and aggressively as possible. The individual drivers are trading risk for cash. A company like Google isn't going to make that trade because it's actually the wrong trade across millions of hours.
- somanyphotons 1y ago
  I may be out-of-date here, but I had thought the accelerometers in the phone detected if drivers were too jerky in the movements of the car and that the drivers would be informed of poor service
  - pests 1y ago
    DoorDash (so food not people) will give you a report for hard braking / acceleration but it doesn't actually affect anything afaict.
- Terr_ 1y ago
  Good point: Part of Waymo's safety stats comes from settings that are probably tuned right now in favor of safety stats even if it means a longer or less-profitable ride. It doesn't care if you're going to lose your job if you're five minutes late. So a fairer comparison would be contrasting Waymo rides to trips conducted by the Ultra Safe Even If It's Slower Chauffeur Company.

shihabkhanbd 1y ago

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kfarr 1y ago

This is great and there’s another area of influence that I’ve heard other traffic engineers discuss: platoon pacing. A platoon is the word that traffic engineers give to a group of cars traveling together. A platoon is most explicitly visible on a corridor with signals timed for a green wave, but occurs in many other contexts. Human drivers often race when in a platoon— not even on purpose it’s just an instinct to go as fast or faster than other cars which has a feedback effect to increase platoon speed. Waymos, following the exact speed limit, don’t do this. On 1 lane streets they literally set the platoon pace to the legal speed limit. The effect of this is hard to study and quantify but it’s a real and positive impact of self driving cars on city streets. Haven’t seen research on this topic yet.

wffurr 1y ago
This also came up recently in a thread about speed governors: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43812856 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43812856 Just a few governor-equipped vehicles (e.g. from public fleets or prior speeding offenders) can reduce speeding on the whole road.
- sneak 1y ago
  On most roads, speeding isn’t a safety issue and shouldn’t be discouraged, as road throughput is important. Speed limits are usually set too low due to standardized inflexible policies or desire for revenue. On some roads, however, it is a massive safety issue, and everyone is driving unsafely because the road is designed badly for its intended purpose. (So-called “stroads” are the canonical example.)
  - chris1993 1y ago
    It’s an issue for everyone not in a car
  - Mawr 1y ago
    Yeah and we should definitely leave deciding the appropriate speed to the drivers. Because, uh, throughput is important, got it. Is safety important? Who knows, but throughput definitely is!

femiagbabiaka 1y ago

Anecdotally, as someone who bikes a lot in SF, Waymo's are a lot safer than human drivers simply because they follow the letter of traffic laws. Stopping at stop signs, waiting for pedestrians to clear the box, following the posted speed limits, etc.

matttproud 1y ago
I was just on a business trip to San Francisco for a few days, and I observed the near opposite of this from the Waymo fleet in SoMa: * Waymo vehicle creeping into the pedestrian crosswalk (while the pedestrians had right of way to cross), which caused someone to have to walk around the car into the intersection ahead of the Waymo. * Waymo vehicle entering a dedicated bike lane and practically tailgating the bicyclist that was ahead of it. These might be safer than human drivers in aggregate and normalized by kilometer driven, but they drive like humans — greedily and non-defensively. I wouldn't want one these anywhere near a high-pedestrian traffic area ever, and I feel the same about human-driven cars, too.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  Neither of the examples you cite strike me as particularly dangerous nor even illegal. The pedestrians were given the right of way. And entering bike lanes is fine for crossing or short distances where merited unless grade separated.
  - matttproud 1y ago
    A vehicle that becomes blocked in a crosswalk is unsafe for pedestrians who want to use that crosswalk if it forces the pedestrians to walk around the blocking vehicle. There are crosswalks in SoMa that provide for 45 seconds or more of crossing time. A Waymo that enters one of these crosswalks after 15 seconds into the 45 seconds allocation blocks the crosswalk for the remainder of the 30 seconds. This presents an unsafe situation for all existing and future pedestrians (e.g., a pedestrian who inadvertently steps into the intersection while trying to go around the blocking vehicle). We also know that in North America that the municipal services skimp on grade separation for bike lanes for budget and political reasons. I did bike in San Francisco when I lived there, and these non-shared colored lanes never ever felt safe. I can guarantee that if you leave your North American context for a couple of years and come back to it you'll find CA Vehicle Code § 21453 unsatisfactory.

wkat4242 1y ago

In Holland we have this saying (based on an old commercial): "We from WC Duck recommend... WC Duck". (Which is a toilet cleaning product) It was a funny ad at the time. Unfortunately based in reality more and more these days.

standardUser 1y ago
I'm quick to discount reports that are "by the industry for the industry", but few industries are as transparent as self-driving taxis due to the strict operating laws in most jurisdictions.
OJFord 1y ago
This is almost all research though. (Medical) doctors aren't in the habit of doing longitudinal studies on procedures they don't do because they don't believe in them. (I mean, for one thing, where would they get the data!) But that's why you have peer review, further studies from different authors perhaps on competing methods that point out some flaws in your approach, etc.
TulliusCicero 1y ago
Obviously the study should be taken with a grain of salt, given the source, but at least it is a study with actual data, that's been peer reviewed.

indigodaddy 1y ago

How do AI cars fare with those instinctual "decide which way to swerve in a split-second" scenarios that come up maybe once every 10-20 years over the course of a driver's history?? It's happened to me about 2-3 times and I've always made the "(assumedly) correct" split second swerve decision. Wondering if that is a "human/instinctual" skill and if AI cars do just as well or better, or perhaps not as good? I don't have any evidence backing this but my gut tells me these scenarios are something that a human driver would handle better than AI.

OJFord 1y ago
Probably better? 'Who' can process more data faster is likely impossible to answer, but (e.g.) Waymo can train on those scenarios and have way more 'experience' than any individual driver who's seen it once every 10-20 years of their driving career.
- indigodaddy 1y ago
  Yeah it's interesting, these scenarios are generally at high speeds on an interstate highway, and generally involve some level of predicting what the villain driver is going to do (split second prediction though mind you, it all happens in the blink of an eye), and sometimes the right thing to do is to swerve (if no one is adjacent in surrounding lanes) whilst either not using the brake at all or almost no braking. Basically avoid the brake and do your quick swerve after you've confirmed there is no one in the left/right adjacent lane or close enough behind you. Once again this all happens in the blink of an eye. Perhaps AI would be better? I'm not complete sold though..
  - creer 1y ago
    One big difference in favor of the software is your "after you've confirmed there is no one in the left/right adjacent lane or close enough behind you." The car has been looking in every direction the whole ride. The car already knows what there is to know about all the neighbours. A huge advantage over the human driver. I feel also that the car having a far better experience of its kinematics / dynamics / features is also a huge advantage - see the good old drifting parallel parking videos. After that there is the concern about computing reaction time. Can it get stuck hesitating? Clearly the cars hesitate a lot in generally safe places. But we have seen some videos already of a Waymo very smoothly dodging someone running out from in between cars (they were already tracked), and someone mentioned a scooter incident. Hopefully we'll see more videos of emergency responses. Another comment mentions "r/waymo or r/selfdrivingcars for lots of videos of Waymos avoiding objects."

johnfn 1y ago

As someone who is often on SF city streets without a car - I bike and run a lot - I absolutely love Waymo. I am continuously seeing human drivers cut me off, perform illegal maneuvers (i.e. run red lights when I'm going through a crosswalk), and break various other traffic laws. All these things genuinely put people in danger. Just the other day, a guy started running a "no right turn on red" lane in SF, and when I pointed it out to him he floored his car - through the red - right in front of me and laughed at me as he sped away. To say nothing of all the times when cars will honk or give me the finger for doing normal things on a street, like walking on a crosswalk. Waymo is like the most courteous, respectful driver you can possibly imagine. They have infinite patience and will always take the option which is the safest for everyone. One thing which really impressed me is how patient they are at crosswalks. When I'm jogging, a Waymo will happily wait for me to cross - even when I'm 10 feet away from even entering the crosswalk! I don't know if I even have that much patience while driving! I've had a number of near misses with human drivers who don't bother checking or accelerate for no reason after I'm already in the crosswalk. Can you imagine a Waymo ever doing that? If I see a Waymo on the street near me I immediately feel safer because I know it is not about to commit some unhinged behavior. I cannot say enough good things about them.

biophysboy 1y ago
I am also hopeful that Waymo has other positive externalities for bikes/pedestrians: less need for parking spots, car ownership, etc. At the same time, I guess you could say the same for rideshare, so it would depend on if robo-rideshare is cheaper than ownership
- VOIPThrowaway 1y ago
  My prediction is that car usage will go thought the roof when AI cars work. People can have a stress-free commute to a nice house in the countryside and work in the cities. Because the car is electric, it will be inexpensive to run.
  - biophysboy 1y ago
    well, I guess my hope is that renting a car whenever needed is cheaper than the cost of purchasing, maintaining, insuring, and storing a personal robocar. It would be quite hard to make the US more car-dependent than it already is! But I am speculating - you may very well be right

starik36 1y ago

They operate in Los Angeles on the city streets in a square between Marina Del Ray and West Hollywood. They can definitely do better when taking left turns. I've seen situations where Waymo depends on the oncoming drivers to slow down.

shreezus 1y ago
It's a bit further than that, the service area now extends to DTLA / Arts District and south toward Inglewood (likely to support LAX soon).

renewiltord 1y ago

For cycling and walking in SF, the Waymos are optimal. If there's one at the front of the line at the red light I know I won't be right hooked as I go straight in the bike lane. Very well-behaved. I am so glad they're here. Some concentration of them actually ruin crazy drivers' ability to do damage because they set the speed limit and won't go through reds.

asdsadasdasd123 1y ago

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Flatcircle 1y ago

reminder that if waymo type cars replaced human driven cars and cut the deaths to zero. (perhaps a big if) Then it'd be like finding a cure for cancer, for people aged 0 - 40, who die as much in auto accidents as they do of cancer

bluGill 1y ago
Even if they don't cut deaths to zero, they can still make a big difference. Humans are terrible drivers.

davidczech 1y ago

For what it's worth, I have exclusively used Waymo in SF ever since my last Uber driver was smoking weed while driving. I just don't want to deal with the human variable anymore.

ycombinatrix 1y ago
Waymo is a nice guy, he will definitely share his weed with you

robmsmt 1y ago

Waymo is part of my investment thesis as to why Google is undervalued

intexpress 1y ago
Public transport is undervalued
- tekno45 1y ago
  If they slapped this on busses i'd be okay with taxes paying for it.

condiment 1y ago

So, what’s it gonna take for Waymo to start selling retrofit kits for existing cars? If a $10,000 investment reduces the chances of a serious accident by 90%, the corresponding reduction in insurance rates might have a payoff within a few years. Especially if adoption starts to push rates up for customers who don’t automate. I can’t take a taxi everywhere, but I’d sure like it if my car drove me everywhere and did a better job than me at it too.

bluGill 1y ago
They need to work everywhere. How do they do in snow/ice (humans do really bad here - but where I live it happens often enough that we often cannot stay home or we would spend weeks in the house) Don't get my wrong, I'm hoping it is soon. However they have a lot of work left.
- Ylpertnodi 1y ago
  Perhaps, in the same way you may not need an aircoditioner (due to your location), it would probably not be the best for waymo to market itself as 'suitable for all conditions, ymmv, lol'.
porphyra 1y ago
It honestly feels like they spend years validating each new platform, e.g. the Zeekr was announced years ago and only recently are they very rarely seen on the streets but only as Waymo Engineering mules. Likewise the transition from the Chrysler Pacifica to the I-Pace took a while. Hopefully they figure something out to scale up to more platforms soon. They announced a partnership with Hyundai a few years ago, also with nothing to show for it. Of course, safety first, so they should take their time and not rush things...
- AlotOfReading 1y ago
  The zeekr vehicles were heavily affected by changing regulations and tariffs around Chinese made automobiles. The Hyundai vehicles haven't started production yet. They're in an awkward situation because they made a bad prediction about the political direction without a backup plan and it went south right as they were entering production.

ordinaryradical 1y ago

Literally riding in a Waymo right now in Los Angeles. IMO they already won. The amount of stupid things you see people do here while driving is astonishing, so many people are not paying attention and looking at their phones. I used an Uber on the way here and the car was dirtier while the service was identical (silent ride, got me where I needed to go.) I’ve also been stuck in a Waymo that couldn’t figure out its way around parked buses, so they have edge cases to improve. But man does it feel like I’m living in the future…

jessriedel 1y ago
> I used an Uber on the way here and the car was dirtier To be fair, the fact that Waymos are fancy clean Jaguars is kind of ancillary to the main technology. The tech is currently expensive, so they are targeting the luxury market, which you can also get on Uber if you select a black car or whatever. The people willing to pay for that are less likely to make messes, and the drivers put more effort into frequent cleanings. Once the tech becomes cheap, expect the car quality and cleanliness to go down. Robocars do have some intrinsic advantages in that it's easier to set up a standard daily cleaning process, but they will still accumulate more garbage and stains when they are used by a broader cross section of the population and only cleaned during charging to reduce costs. (Of course, cheaper and more widely accessible tech is good for everyone; if you want a immaculate leather seats cleaned three times a day, you'll generally be able to pay for it.)
- kajecounterhack 1y ago
  I don't think the Jaguars are particularly spacious or nice. They just got a good deal on the platform. If anything, given the commodity nature of vehicles I'd expect car quality to improve. Cleanliness doesn't seem that related to how expensive the tech is either - if anything it would only go down if it ceased to affect willingness to pay. As it stands, clean cars are important to their customers. If usage increases, cleaning can ostensibly increase too, no?
  - jessriedel 1y ago

topherPedersen 1y ago

I saw a Waymo stop at a crosswalk last night in the dark where there was a person standing there waiting to cross that I don't think I would have seen. The person was not standing out in the road, they were standing there patiently waiting to make sure the car actually stopped since it was dark. I was really impressed! I don't think I'm a reckless or impatient driver, but I think the Waymo's are probably better at driving than I am. I know I prefer the Waymos to the human drivers I typically see on the road.

paulnpace 1y ago

While driving a car, it is possible to do something, even on accident, that can land a person in jail. These crimes do not have the option of paying a fine in lieu of prison time. A "self-driving" car can cause the same accident but gain advantages over a human driver that the person ultimately responsible is no longer held to the same set of laws. This seems to undermine foundations of law, placing the owners of those assets into a different legal category from the rest of us.

porphyra 1y ago
Currently, penalties for, say, killing someone while driving are already incredibly light. * Driver whose vehicle struck and killed girl gets $1,200 fine" [1] * Driver who allegedly struck and killed Staten Island baby charged with $750 fine and 15 days in jail [2] * Driver who hit Jets assistant coach Greg Knapp won't be charged following his death [3] [1] https://vancouversun.com/news/driver-whose-vehicle-struck-and-killed-toddler-gets-1200-fine-and-probation https://vancouversun.com/news/driver-whose-vehicle-struck-an... [2] https://nypost.com/2022/05/27/shannon-cocozza-who-allegedly-struck-killed-staten-island-baby-charged-cops/ https://nypost.com/2022/05/27/shannon-cocozza-who-allegedly-... [3] https://people.com/sports/driver-who-hit-jets-assistant-coach-greg-knapp-wont-be-charged/ https://people.com/sports/driver-who-hit-jets-assistant-coac...
- paulnpace 1y ago
  These are examples application of law, such as decisions from prosecutors or a judicial system.

vzaliva 1y ago

One way to inteprent their data is that Waymo is LESS efficient protecting cyclists and motorcyclists compared to pedestriants. As a motorcycle rider I hope they will work to fix that gap.

floxy 1y ago
What seems more likely, that Waymo is prioritizing pedestrian safety over cyclist safety? Or cyclists are much more likely to engage in risky behavior?
- ndsipa_pomu 1y ago
  Maybe it's that cyclists are more likely to be trying to use the road and waymo is prioritising driving on the roads rather than the sidewalk?
deleted 1y ago
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boulos 1y ago

For those that are interested, our Safety Research team also makes the underlying data available for download: https://waymo.com/safety/impact/#downloads https://waymo.com/safety/impact/#downloads (I don't work on that team, but I've noticed a few comments that would be better served with their own analysis on top of the available data)

m0llusk 1y ago

It's a great start, but also shows how driving is not a navigation challenge as much as it is a socialization challenge. If I drove right up to some responders dealing with an emergency and repeatedly refused to stop then I could be in big legal trouble and could end up with fines and possibly an arrest. This has not happened with Waymo vehicles because there is legal ambiguity about who is responsible in such cases. Realistic analysis shows these vehicles have a driving record similar to that of overconfident teens which is worrisome.

oceansky 1y ago

This article has a huge conflict of interest. I would like more independent data.

louwrentius 1y ago
Seems like the rest of the HN crowd is swooning over Waymo. Nothing but glowing reviews. As they become the monopolist, like they always do, watch how they’ll run the age old playbook to destroy the market and then hike prices. I’m not against self-driving cars. I’m against self-driving cars owned by a few megacorps, that will have even control and surveillance capabilities in addition to what’s already in your pocket.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > I’m not against self-driving cars. I’m against self-driving cars owned by a few megacorps Perfect is the enemy of the good. This sort of technological NIMBYism is, in practice, opposition to self-driving cars and their safety benefits.
  - louwrentius 1y ago
    Not even my point and this isn’t about the tech but about the societal context.
  - GuinansEyebrows 1y ago
    a few megacorps cornering an entire market is Not Good

Rover222 1y ago

Can we mention that drivers using Tesla’s FSD are 5x less likely to be in an accident than human drivers? Or all things Elon bad?

boshalfoshal 1y ago
This may be true, but paradoxically, the data might be slightly skewed since Tesla's driver monitoring system (which is only active during autopilot) actively rewards drivers who are paying attention. So is the accident rate lower because people are forced to be more attentive during FSD? Or is it genuinely lower (i.e, if you took out the driver, would there be less accidents)? To be fair, I'd still wager that yes, FSD is probably statistically way better than the average driver. Maybe some combination of miles per intervention + accident data would give more insights into that.
- Rover222 1y ago
  Yes good point that the human monitoring plays a role. Wouldn’t account for all of that, since humans are more actively monitoring normal cars.
Mawr 1y ago
You mean, according to the unbiased Tesla, drivers using Tesla's FSD in the select areas and conditions it's allowed to operate in are 5x less likely to be in an accident than human drivers that operate in all areas and conditions? Sure.
- Rover222 1y ago
  No. Just data from their fleet which is released in a large report. But you’re clearly too biased to think in your own.

Antony90807 1y ago

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hnburnsy 1y ago

>The research finds that, compared to human benchmarks over 56.7 million miles and regardless of who was at fault, the Waymo Driver had [list of better than human stats] Well considering this sensor package... >With 13 cameras, 4 lidar, 6 radar, and an array of external audio receivers (EARs), our new sensor suite is optimized for greater performance...it provides the Waymo Driver with overlapping fields of view, all around the vehicle, up to 500 meters away, day and night, and in a range of weather conditions.[0] ...I would hope it is considerably better than humans who are limited to a sensor suite of two cameras and two lower-case ears. [0] - https://waymo.com/blog/2024/08/meet-the-6th-generation-waymo-driver/ https://waymo.com/blog/2024/08/meet-the-6th-generation-waymo...

90d 1y ago

Waymo is using public roads 25/7 for automating profit and not paying fair taxes.

etaioinshrdlu 1y ago

While Waymo is good for safety, it is constantly collecting data not just from users, but from everyone nearby. The vehicles essentially function as mobile surveillance devices, recording bystanders without consent, with no clear policies on data use, retention, or oversight.

ringeryless 1y ago

i am suspicious of all the anti-human-driver comments and all the dismissal of any concerns about Waymo in the comments here. I am not convinced that public testing of such services is safe, let alone commercial service. One cannot punish a self driving vehicle in any meaningful sense. Corporate incentives vs the public commons, is a general concern that cannot be sweettalked away. The metaphors about human drivers recording you also seem like reductio ad absurdum. puff pieces like this should not be well received on HN or it discredits any pretence at separation of concerns with regards to HN and ycomb.

squigz 1y ago
> One cannot punish a self driving vehicle in any meaningful sense. One can fine the companies and executives. > puff pieces like this should not be well received on HN or it discredits any pretence at separation of concerns with regards to HN and ycomb. Mate... what pretense? Don't ever forget that HN and YC are the same; you'll have a much better time understanding the community.
Ukv 1y ago
> i am suspicious of all the anti-human-driver comments [...] I am not convinced that public testing of such services is safe There are currently over a million fatalities from road traffic crashes every year, being the leading cause of death for the 5-29 year age group[0]. I'd claim that inaction is unacceptably dangerous/deadly here and that, to minimize deaths, we need to be aggressive in trying out and pushing forward potential solutions. > One cannot punish a self driving vehicle in any meaningful sense. The goal of punishment for driving offenses is, in my eyes, largely about reducing unsafe behavior - not just to make someone suffer. Fines/incentives for manufacturers and fine-tuning of models based on incident data should fulfill this purpose. [0]: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffi...
- suddenlybananas 1y ago
  Why not just build public transit and reduce car dependency? The technology has been here for decades and decades.

ringeryless 1y ago

what's up with all the waymo sycophantry here? choruses repeating the same claims "its ok for waymo to enter the bike lane" "yeah, waymo is right" "yes, good waymo entering the bike lane because reasons" this is blatantly obvious and unacceptable. the site rules prohibit accusations of astroturfing but that is precisely what is going on here. precisely no sf programmers were convinced, either. this site had better be concerned with future legitimacy and not being seen as a puppet of specific corps like waymo.

ringeryless 1y ago

I've noticed that nearly ANY criticism here is grayed out. HN has a credibility problem here.

enigma101 1y ago

source waymo.com???

irrational 1y ago

A few weeks ago we were in Santa Monica on vacation. This was my first time seeing Waymo vehicles in the wild. We did see one blatantly run a red light, well after the light had changed. Fortunately no car was crossing at the same time. It wasn’t like the sun was somehow obscuring the traffic light at that time. I was surprised it did something so unsafe.

cadamsdotcom 1y ago

Why is Waymo waiting so long to roll out more broadly?

suddenlybananas 1y ago
Probably because not everywhere has such nice weather.

drunner 1y ago

Once self driving cars take over and fill the streets with gridlock autonomous traffic, the only way to get around in a city is going to be by bike. Its great to here their algorithms are good for cyclists, a better solution is to keep investing in infrastructure that separates cyclists completely from cars.

paul7986 1y ago

Waymo per their track record I trust and am excited to try / use it once it comes to DC or another city close to DC. All the other big names that are no longer around... their tech was dangerous and definitely not ready for prime time. Their tech and focus seemed all about making all involved wealthy or wealthier.

BrandoElFollito 1y ago

We don't have waymo in France and I am not sure it wrote work well. Streets in France are full of entitled people. Drivers, bikers (both bikes with pedals and the ones with an engine) and pedestrians. Everyone thinks that they have all the rights but ultimately some kind of order emerges from the chaos. Pedestrians will walk on red lights, but are also careful. Cars will park anywhere, but usually in a way that is just really frustrating but not blocking. Bikes will slalom, but to a point. This does not always work, but it is so much driven by culture that somehow we are statistically alive when moving outside. Personally I hate it with all my heart. I dream of the dystopian world where everyone will follow the rules.

GuinansEyebrows 1y ago
would you like to trade your french citizenship for my american citizenship?

kjkjadksj 1y ago

Well yeah, they stack the deck in their favor. They avoid very hilly roads. They don’t yet go on the freeway. And they don’t get drunk or tired or distracted. That being said I’d like to see how a typical “good” driver compares vs the average. Someone who doesn’t speed or get duis and gets plenty rest.