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This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explain

This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in action. Self-isolated, gaming, addictions. In construction, for every 5 people that retire, only 2 enter. And it's been like that for over 10 years. The people aren't there nor is the motivation. I'm sure you'll have Apple investing in a mega plant where 50 educated people push some buttons though.

codedokode 1y ago
> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. A usual lack of high qualified low paid workers?
- s1artibartfast 1y ago
  If that's really the case, then these tariffs are the cure. If outsourcing labor overseas is cost prohibitive, wages will have to rise.
  - danny_codes 1y ago
    Or standard of living can fall. Which is quite likely
    - s1artibartfast 1y ago
      Perhaps, but equality would rise in labor starved economy with low standard of living and high costs.
      - jquery 1y ago
        I don't see how that follows. It's not a step up to be forced to work in a factory, compared to before when not working was an option because costs were lower.
      - trinix912 1y ago
        No it wouldn't, it would end up in even more inequality as the middle and lower classes would be able to afford even less while the rich would just see their assets rack up in price. We had that problem in my small European country.
      - Vegenoid 1y ago
        Why? Who is looking at the societies of countries where manufacturing is happening and saying “we want that”? Manufacturing used to be great for the US because other places couldn’t do it, either because they hadn’t developed enough or they’d been ravaged by war. It wasn’t “manufacturing physical goods” that was great for the US, it was “having industry that others don’t”. Now, other countries have manufacturing capability. America’s uniquely exceptional industry is now tech - mostly software, but also hardware design, and design of tech for other industries. That is what we should be focused on - supporting the industries that set us apart from other countries.
      - kristjansson 1y ago
        Nevermind the improbability that a decrease in living standards would actually compress the distribution of living standards - Are you seriously arguing that's desirable? That it's better to reduce everyone's lots so that we can be more equal?
        s1artibartfast 1y ago
        If you asked me a couple years ago, I would absolutely oppose it, but now I am seriously entertaining the idea that it may be better to live in a poorer but more equal society. It seems that the majority cares far more about comparative wealth than absolute wellbeing, and is willing to destroy the system if they don't get what they want.
        kristjansson 1y ago
        I'd actually agree that, at any level of living standard, the more equal society is probably happier. I'd question whether that'd be an effective _intervention_ though. Actively reducing the median standard of a relatively well-to-do society to compress the overall distribution does not seem like it would lead to a net increase in happiness.
  - lodovic 1y ago
    This essentially amounts to subsidizing industries that aren't competitive. It's like choosing to bake bread at home for $5 when you could buy it for just $2.
    - palmotea 1y ago
      > This essentially amounts to subsidizing industries that aren't competitive. That's not a bad thing, especially if they are "not competitive" because foreign workers can be exploited more (and not some real competitive advantage). There are more desirable things than the few neoliberalism optimizes for.
    - xyzzy123 1y ago
      Or it could be interpreted as putting a higher value on self-sufficiency and domestic production capacity than standard free trade economic theories value those things at ($0). Standard comparative advantage narratives don't really account for production "webs" being ecosystems that get big synergies from colocation. They do not account for geopolitical risks either.
      - lodovic 1y ago
        True, it keeps wealth circulating domestically, fostering local economic activity. However, drawbacks of this system are higher costs for consumers and inefficiencies in production, so it needs to be balanced.
- porridgeraisin 1y ago
  No, this is the effect for the last 50 years' usual "I will have my high paid cushy job while some other country somewhere manufactures products for me, taking on all the negative effects. Only positive effects for me. Yes, you should use our currency and take part in our inflation. Or we'll invade you. We will print 6T USD[1] in 2 years and you need to absorb that along with us." Thankfully, this is coming to an end soon. No tears anywhere. I know a version of this is what happens in every human age, not singling anything out, but don't get onto the moral high ground of "I am just trying to ensure everyone is well paid". [1] additionally, 80% of all US dollars added to the supply were added in the last 5 years.
  - yibg 1y ago
    This is the part that confuses me too. The US is in an enviable position where a lot of the "shit" jobs are outsourced and in return we get cheap stuff. Why is this a bad thing?
    - Qworg 1y ago
      It isn't a bad thing - unless you don't have a job/have been stuffed with the idea that meaning and good pay could be yours if not for those foreigners.
    - porridgeraisin 1y ago
      My interpretation is that today other countries are less willing to take on the role the US would like them to. So, the chosen solution in the US now is to wind down this approach, and try to bring back production to the country. I don't know enough to comment on the effectiveness of the method they are using to do this, but that they are doing it is clear to me. China is not going to play this role anymore as has been made clear over the last 2 years. Them being the largest country playing this role for the last decade has fueled this recent revamp in the US. Russia has not really played that role for a long long time. India(me being an Indian, I might be biased) is way way too slow to be depended on to sustain the sheer scale of US' requirements. Also, compared to china, it's actually getting more and more difficult to get "shit jobs" done here, which might be surprising. It is for all the wrong reasons though, so not much to celebrate as an indian. However, india has enough domestic potential to be self sufficient, so nothing to worry about either. A few years ago, I thought the next "dump yard country" for the US would be africa. But their progress to the required level is clearly multiple decades away, so that's out of the window in the short- and medium- term. Europe is already finding it difficult to get much out of Africa, despite still basically controlling multiple countries there. Thus, they are having to resort to immigration from the middle east (some 10 years back, it was all from africa) Needless to say, "freewheelers" (for lack of a better word) such as western europe and australia&oceania were never under consideration, and will never accept this role. Eastern Europe/SEA are "up for grabs", but the former is already saturated playing this role for western europe/russia (and the two fight for control of the same) and the latter is thoroughly saturated playing this role for china. You saw this play out recently with the attempt to get ukraine's rare earth industry serving the US. Russia invaded them for similar reasons. The upper middle east clearly will not play this role, preferring to live in substandard conditions and submit to terrorist organisations instead (and who can blame them?) China seems to love supporting these lot too. Saudi Arabia/UAE are options, and the new US government has made good use of them (atleast on paper) with the new investments. However, they can only do so much given their size, geography and demographics. I never thought they would allow it to happen, but even LatAm is slowly being "lost" to china. And suddenly, you've run out of countries! Maybe we'll find some martians though, they can do the welding for the starship. Strangely, the US is also seemingly losing its ability to maintain an edge through intellectual property. The whole hype in non-technical circles when Deepseek came out was a reaction to this. 20 years ago, it would have been protected better. The IP from 20 years ago is protected well... even today! See: semiconductor manufacturing. Some people say this is because you're now needing to import people too (and so, the knowledge leaks). Some people probe further and say that this happened in the first place because of worsening education in the US. I am inclined to agree with this, since over financialization/trade/empire-building and increasingly poorer education was also what killed medieval india, which I have more knowledge of. However, I might be making more of the symmetry than there is.
- blitzar 1y ago
  People in the US dont want to work 14 hour shifts for 50c a day for some reason.
  - cevi 1y ago
    Think about it: with 20% tariffs, we will now have the option to work 14 hour shifts for 60c a day!
tootie 1y ago
The best option would be to close the gap with immigration but alas...
- jquery 1y ago
  Or just free trade. Like we had...
- AlexandrB 1y ago
  Why is that the best option instead of raising wages until those jobs are attractive to domestic workers? There's this weird back and forth where people bemoan stagnating wages for the working class but at the same time cheer on importing labor that is willing to work for those stagnant wages. In any other market, the balance of supply and demand is reflected in the price. But for the labor market the perpetual solution put forward seems to be juicing the supply side so that the price does not move up to a new equilibrium.
  - tootie 1y ago
    Both would have to happen. There's very little slack in the labor market to absorb anything. Even if legal permanent residents take up manufacturing jobs, they'd have to give up whatever jobs they have now creating a shortage. And given then even most undocumented people are working, someone needs to fill those jobs.
  - Vegenoid 1y ago
    Who is pushing to raise the wages and power of labor? It sure isn’t the party that is pushing tariffs and the return of factories.
    - feraloink 1y ago
      The party that is NOT pushing tariffs is the one who said, between 2012 and 2016, that "they're NEVER coming back" (referring to return of factories and manufacturing jobs). That same party DID try to bring back manufacturing between 2020 and 2024. I think they would have been more successful if it hadn't been for COVID19, for which neither party is to blame.
forgotoldacc 1y ago
This is precisely the problem. Plus, even assuming there existed lots of people to fill the gap, why would they sign up for manufacturing jobs? They pay like crap. Unions and worker rights have been gradually chipped away at for years and now they're straight up chainsawing them. Why work a monotonous job that pays at or just slightly above minimum wage, has skills that aren't really transferable should you decide to change careers, is rough on the body and doesn't even provide proper health care or sick days to rest, and employers will call you in during natural disasters with the threat of firing you otherwise and then leave you to literally die while pretending it's not their fault when you do die? [1] It's companies and the government saying, "We want everything, and in exchange, we'll give you nothing. And you will be happy." No American sees their kid growing up and thinks, "I hope my child will one day work long hours at a factory." People in some countries do, and it's because those jobs are a step up from the current standard. Factory jobs in the US are, in many cases, a step down and that step keeps lowering. High tech/high skilled manufacturing can be an exception, but the bulk of the jobs they're hoping to bring back aren't that. [1] https://www.npr.org/2024/11/02/g-s1-28731/hurricane-helene-tennessee-plastics-factory-deaths-lawsuit https://www.npr.org/2024/11/02/g-s1-28731/hurricane-helene-t...
- palmotea 1y ago
  > Plus, even assuming there existed lots of people to fill the gap, why would they sign up for manufacturing jobs? They pay like crap. Maybe that's just you talking from a position of relative privilege (e.g. as someone who's likely an extremely well-paid software engineer or some adjacent profession), and not really understanding other people's situation. Not everyone has a pick of the perfect career that ticks every box. It's very well document that there are lots people bitter those manufacturing jobs got off-shored, and lots of communities that wish they'd reopen "the plant."
  - forgotoldacc 1y ago
    I'm from a very poor Appalachian town. My only option to better my life was to get up and leave. People from my hometown do talk about the good old days. People worked at union factories and my grandfather worked a well paying railroad job. My no-name town of 1000 people had a train station that made it possible to go to NYC. My grandpa got paid a handsome retirement from the railroad company. When he died, my grandmother was able to receive his benefits. My hometown votes against building railways. The station has long crumbled. They vote against unions. The factories are long gone. They've voted against any sort of retirement benefits. The elderly are struggling and depending on churches handing out food. Even if those factories come back, they'll be paid less than my ancestors did. They'll never have an affordable link to cities hours away. They'll never get the retirement benefits my ancestors had. And if you mention giving them these benefits, they yell and say they don't want them. The youth in my hometown who worked hard in school (we somehow had a decent school, all things considered) used their education as a ticket out. Now the people there are pissed and they're coming for education next. These people don't want "the plant." They want to be young again, without understanding that their youth was great because my ancestors busted their asses to give us great opportunities. They squandered everything that was given to us.
JimBlackwood 1y ago
The US has recently loosened laws regarding child labor. It’s how other countries produce items cheaply, why not the US? That El Salvador prison could also come in useful.
- seanmcdirmid 1y ago
  That was Florida. Child labor laws are mostly set by the states.
  - chgs 1y ago
    Is Flordia not in the US?
    - clarionbell 1y ago
      In the same way that Berlin is entire Germany.
    - ZeroGravitas 1y ago
      Florida is the US of the US.
  - bamboozled 1y ago
    Do you think if children were going to be harmed in The USA then maybe the federal government should introduce a ban of that kind of shit federally? I've heard it all now...
    - seanmcdirmid 1y ago
      > Do you think if children were going to be harmed in The USA then maybe the federal government should introduce a ban of that kind of shit federally? I'm not sure the federal government can. There are powers reserved for states that the federal government can't circumvent. They have supremacy, but the jurisdiction of that supremacy is restricted.
  - JimBlackwood 1y ago
themagician 1y ago
No people, no supply chain, and no total lack of environmental regulations mean most manufacturing jobs are not coming back no matter what the tariffs are. It's not just one reason that the manufacturing jobs have left, but a conflation of reasons. Unless… well, unless you eliminate the EPA, invade Canada and Greenland and take their raw materials, and make people so poor that they take up factory jobs again.
seydor 1y ago
Suppose you even find those workers. How are american products going to compete with cheaper chinese / european ones. People over there are used to much lower wages / purchasing power. You can look at Tesla vs BYD prices as an example
- coderenegade 1y ago
  More likely the goal is for foreign companies to set up factories in the US for the domestic market. The US market is too big for most industries to ignore, and as they move manufacturing there, they skill up the US population. Industries don't exist in isolation, and you need to be able to make simpler things in order to cultivate the know-how to make complex things. If China makes better phones, it won't be long until they make better drones. This is as much a strategic initiative as it is an economic one. And BYD should be a wake up call that the US cannot compete in high value goods anymore.
  - anonfordays 1y ago
    >If China makes better phones, it won't be long until they make better drones. They already do. China makes the best drones. Most of the drones in the world, most of the drones use in wars, etc. are manufactured in China, or are comprised of mostly Chinese parts.
    - coderenegade 1y ago
      I'm referring to the ones that carry a Q designation, not the DJI kind. China hasn't yet caught up in that domain. Electric drones are seeing a lot of use in Ukraine and other conflicts, but they aren't helping to establish air superiority.
      - mrguyorama 1y ago
        China has direct copies of our Reaper drones, they aren't some advanced technology, they are very simple craft actually, and descend from essentially target drones and some toys the navy put together in the 80s. >but they aren't helping to establish air superiority. A reaper style drone does nothing for air superiority. It's not meant to. It's a surveillance and ground attack platform. It has no means of equipping or targeting actual air to air munitions meant for Air Superiority. Why did you believe the MQ9 was relevant to air superiority? Or some special machine that China couldn't make?
trallnag 1y ago
What's up with the corresponding 7 million young women of working age?
danpalmer 1y ago
I heard a great story from a colleague that worked in fashion development in the UK. There's a big push for "Made in the UK" clothing and consumers associate it with quality, but the items are lower quality, because the UK lost its garment manufacturing skills 50+ years ago. Meanwhile Asia has gained those skills, so if you buy clothes from China they are likely higher quality than you'd get here and cheaper. This is not always the case, Italy still makes high quality leather goods, Portugal is still making good shirts and trousers etc, but for the most part as economies have moved away from manufacturing into services they have lost the skills and to force manufacturing to happen there means accepting higher priced, lower quality products.
- smokel 1y ago
  This has probably little to do with skill being lost, and more with how little one gets paid to do this kind of work. Skilled people can get jobs in other fields that earn a lot more.
  - lotsofpulp 1y ago
    Skilled people don’t just appear out of thin air. Skilled people need years of practice, and advice from a network of adjacent skilled people to become skilled in a particular craft. You can be skilled at Excel and be 10 years away from knowing how to make even mass produced low quality clothing.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
  - mitthrowaway2 1y ago
    Skilled people are still mortal and after a couple generations, they do pass away. They won't be replaced by new skilled apprentices if the industry hasn't been hiring.
  - danpalmer 1y ago
    No no, it's the skills. My colleague worked for a very high priced fashion brand who were able to pay high rates (and indeed did for this and other parts), but they couldn't get the quality they needed. At the low end, sure, it's obvious you'll get more for your money abroad. The point here is that the skills are lost and you can't pay any amount anymore, at least not at scale (there will always be artisans who can produce extremely low volumes but these don't affect the market much).
coderenegade 1y ago
I don't know that I agree with this. The US is too large a market to ignore, and this is effectively raising the profit margin for local production. Foreign companies will either move some portion of manufacturing to the US (for the domestic market), or cede the market completely, and I don't know that they're prepared to do that (well, maybe Chinese ones are). Factories have a long lead time, so even if this is abolished at the end of his term, they'll be locked in with sunk capital costs. The main reasons not to do this are a) abandoning the market, as mentioned, or b) you think you can hold out long enough until the political landscape changes. If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. Most labor shortages aren't an actual shortage of labor, unless you genuinely can't produce that skillset domestically, or your labor market is so tight that no one is unemployed; rather, they're a shortage of wages. Pay enough, and someone will do the job. This is especially true for low-skilled work. There is not, and never will be, a shortage of cleaners, for example, because anyone can do it, so as long as there are unemployed people and the wages are good enough, someone will do the work. And even if these jobs aren't in running these factories, they've still got to be built. Money is a powerful motivator, so I have no doubt they will. Companies will bleed because of this, but there are clear benefits for the US working class even if they're paying more. The gamble is obviously that the benefits outweigh the negatives of higher prices overall. Modern economics says no, but modern economics also believes in service-based economies, and that countries should only produce what they're good at, which, eventually, becomes a repudiation of the nation state. No country wants to buy bullets from an enemy, even if they're cheaper, and the web of infrastructure and industry necessary to maintain a defense industry mandates that at some point, you abandon the theory. Which is to say: I don't know, but I'm also skeptical that economists do.
- foota 1y ago
  > If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. Most labor shortages aren't an actual shortage of labor, unless you genuinely can't produce that skillset domestically, or your labor market is so tight that no one is unemployed; rather, they're a shortage of wages I don't know about this in the US. Sure, we're not at full employment, but I don't know how factory jobs are going to change that. My impression is that there is already a deficit in labor willing to work hard for good pay (construction, trucking, etc.,) and tightening immigration policies will make this even worse.
vv_ 1y ago
> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing The core issue is that, historically, experienced workers have passed down their knowledge to new generations, ensuring a steady accumulation of expertise. However, when factories close and seasoned workers retire or move to other fields without training successors, a vast amount of valuable knowledge is lost. Rebuilding this expertise is both difficult and time-consuming. Subsidies will be required to support local production - initially yielding lower-quality or significantly more expensive goods - until the Western world relearns how to manufacture at scale. Furthermore, if you want to build something, you likely won’t do it by hand. You’ll need machines to automate the process or enable complex material operations. Rebuilding this capability from scratch will take time, as existing manufacturers lack the necessary capacity. Additionally, similar equipment is produced much more cheaply in China, creating another challenge that must be addressed. What’s likely to happen is that Chinese manufacturers will establish companies in the United States that replicate their production facilities elsewhere (e.g. mainland China). They’ll ship in parts, and final assembly will take place in the U.S. This approach allows them to bypass trade restrictions while maintaining cost advantages. I already know of several cases where this is happening.
- bluGill 1y ago
  A lot of that experience isn't needed though - automation replaced a large part of the expertise needs. I used to work at a factory, it produces as much as it ever did (though with a lot of modern innovations), but today only about 200 people work in it, compared to over 2000 in 1950. The CNC laser cutters replaced 70 people running saws with just 3.
  - vv_ 1y ago
    This isn't uniformly true in all industries or throughout all manufacturing. Not to mention that you need qualified people to operate and maintain these machines and the machines themselves.
- stefs 1y ago
  > They’ll ship in parts, and final assembly will take place in the U.S. i thought new the tariffs also applied to parts (with a few exceptions)?
intermerda 1y ago
Well they can always go back to child labor like Florida is planning to - https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/25/business/florida-child-labor-laws/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/25/business/florida-child-labor-...
thrance 1y ago
Can you blame the new generations for not wanting to work their asses off doing arduous manual labor, payed a minimum wage that is barely enough to afford a single room? Republicans made work awful. I've heard some wanting to get rid of minimum wage too. Do you think this will help?
codedokode 1y ago
Actually there are people who are ok to do physical jobs but they are getting deported now.
petesergeant 1y ago
> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing ... I'm sure you'll have Apple investing in a mega plant where 50 educated people push some buttons though. I feel like this could be used to steel-man the Trump administration's plan, though, should you want to. The best-case outcome here for America is it forces large capital investment in automated manufacturing facilities based in the US by making manufacturing that relies on cheap overseas labour expensive enough that the investment is worth it. I'm doubtful, but, in the unlikely event it works like that, and this comes online in the next couple of years without causing a catastrophic wipeout in the mid-terms, Trump will look like a genius. IMO it would have been much smarter to explicitly incentivize this with tax breaks and start with small tariffs that would ramp up a little bit each month, if it's the plan, and not just incoherent policy making.
jsemrau 1y ago
>Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in action. Self-isolated, gaming, addictions. And you never wondered why that is?
- franktankbank 1y ago
  The only question is how to get them employed where our economy needs them. Honestly I've worked in Manufacturing and it is fucking gnarly. Clean factories don't exist. Many of the men I worked with had some sort of mild mental disorder tending towards aggression. Constantly short serviced machines and price gouging by any contractors involved. There is a lot to figure out and before you end up with a hospitable work environment. I'm doubtful tubby mcgamesalot is going to hold down a job stamping metal parts all day getting his lunch eaten or pissed in.
  - creata 1y ago
    Speaking as such an unemployed Tubby McGamesalot (well, minus the gaming) I'm pretty sure we're all aware, and would rather starve than work in manufacturing.
  - atom058 1y ago
    We visited a manufacturing / assembly plats for industrial vehicles in Sweden during the autumn. Everything was spotless, bright, and almost silent. All the tools were neatly organised in overhead ergonomic hangers, reducing the stress on the workers. It looked like a great place to work, nor akin to an office than a dirty grimy workshop. On the other hand, I visited a Canadian plant and the difference was stark. There was hardly any lighting, the floor was black with dirt, and the noise was unbearable. This was a small supplier about 10 years ago, so take it with a pinch of salt. There is interesting effects from group dynamics and having a sense of purpose that can help people reintegrate into society. But the work environment has to be prioritised to make it easier on the workers. If the work place looks and acts like a prison camp, you are not going to get those benefits. The point is that clean factories do exist, and manufacturing can be a good place to work. But it needs some work to make it so.
- 1y ago
fnord77 1y ago
> Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in action. Self-isolated, gaming, addictions. perhaps we'll see something akin to "forced conscription", except for industrial work
lanthissa 1y ago
didnt you listen to the 70 year olds planning this? we're just going have the robots do it. you know how people said putin was surrounded by an echo chamber and thats how he got stuck in ukraine? Thats the us now but with billionare VC's and 2nd tier 1980's NYC real estate developers. Look at their numbers and listen to them talk, they're genuinely not grounded in reality as whole group and theres no fixing that
jccalhoun 1y ago
I recently listened to an episode of the Search Engine podcast where they showed how hard it is to manufacture something completely in the USA: https://www.searchengine.show/listen/search-engine-1/the-puzzle-of-the-all-american-bbq-scrubber https://www.searchengine.show/listen/search-engine-1/the-puz... (Spoilers, the problem they had was that even when they found companies to manufacture their bbq scrubber, it was harder to find someone in the USA to make the parts that are used to make the parts.)
- dharmab 1y ago
  Simone Giertz said on her channel her company approached multiple factories in the US, EU and China about manufacturing a product. None of the US factories even replied.
sounds 1y ago
> sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Feel free to offer higher wages than the previous stagnant wages.
hnthrow90348765 1y ago
No one will want to do lower income jobs while the cost of living is high and continues to rise. Wear and tear on the body is also not compensated, not to mention healthcare being expensive. Meanwhile, I do CRUD apps and work remotely 20/hours a week with no bodily harm (on the contrary, I have time to work out and make bad posts on HN) No one in their right mind is going to choose manufacturing over what I have if they can do both, and most people could honestly learn to do CRUD apps. Even if my salary were to go down by 5-10% yoy due to people moving in, I'm still in a better position for the other reasons mentioned. I'd have to be below manufacturing and blue collar wages to get me to switch. The only sensible explanation is that they're trying to force people to have to take these jobs by crashing the globalized parts of the economy because they are obviously better than starving and dying homeless. All this assuming that Trump isn't just intentionally trying to destroy the country.
dfilppi 1y ago
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0x5f3759df-i 1y ago
This is basic economics that the administration refuses to understand. Trade allows you to consume beyond your nation’s manpower and resource constraints. And it’s even stupider when you’re putting tariffs on raw materials like Canadian lumber. So not only do we need to magically find millions of workers to work in these new factories we also need to find a bunch of lumberjacks and start cutting down our own trees? We’re at 4% unemployment, who’s going to do this work? We literally don’t have the people to make this work.
dpedu 1y ago
If this is true, why are US wages stagnating?
sdsd 1y ago
In real life, people are spending years looking for jobs making enough to barely survive. I should tell them about your video you saw, if only they know.
summerlight 1y ago
Agreed, the root of the problem is that America has relatively zero modern manufacturing infrastructure and manpower, especially compared to China. Those MAGA folks just don't know this. Offshoring happened not just because of cheaper price; China already had a much better environment even 20 years ago thanks to billions of people.
spamlettuce 1y ago
If there was a real labor demand shortage wouldn't there be actual wage growth though ?
- seabrookmx 1y ago
  But if wages increase so does cost of manufacturing in the US, making US goods less competitive not more?
soerxpso 1y ago
> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing I am willing to move anywhere in the US to do any manufacturing job if it means that I will be paid enough to afford a house with two bedrooms and basic living expenses. I have a bachelor's degree and have been unable to find such an arrangement. So where exactly are all of these unfilled jobs that you speak of? Are they unfilled because we don't have the people, or because they're trying to pay in peanuts? Unfilled because we don't have the people, or because HR departments are filtering away qualified resumes based on voodoo? This outlandish claim you're making that we don't want to work is offensive to a lot of people who are aware of their own existence and know that you're spouting bullshit to trick people into more wealth inequality. Your 7 million young men aren't 'missing', you're just refusing to hire them. The jobs don't exist.
DennisP 1y ago
Good thing we're deporting so many people then.
h2zizzle 1y ago
Eh. This always gets presented as a, "Why don't Millennial/Zoomer/Alpha men want to work?" Lack of training? Maybe. But I see that as more of a subset of the actual issue, which is two-fold: work conditions and compensation. So many jobs suck, and pay less than they should, and provide no real opportunity for growth. Let's break it down: Jobs that suck: bad hours, bad bosses, bad processes that create inefficiency and stress. Jobs that don't pay: can't afford a house, can't afford to date/get married/have children, can't establish a stable lifestyle . Jobs that don't allow for growth: masters don't pass along their skills, managers don't promote (and, eventually, step aside), employers push employees out with stagnation and the hoarding of opportunities for nepo-hires or outsiders. And why are we in this situation? Essentially, because someone likes the way things are. Managers and seniors don't want to change their work styles, even if those styles are dysfunctional. Employers don't want to pay. Older workers don't want to leave, or jeopardize their marketability by training juniors. Every young worker can tell you about their experiences with older workers who promise to train and won't, managers who promise advancement and don't, having to be in the office at an ungodly hour or the warehouse or factory late into the night. And for what? Nothing of the American Dream, at least without putting up with the more ridiculous end of the job spectrum, or having been born into money, or having been lucky enough to rub shoulders with someone born into money. It's Japan's hikikomori problem, transposed. Japanese authorities constantly blame the shut-ins, but outside observers recognize that the problem actually lies with the "functional" side of society, and its unwillingness to confront the way it alienates and produces perfectly reasonable, if dysfunctional, responses in these men (and women).
RobKohr 1y ago
Manufacturing pays very little, and for good reason. You are competing with sometimes slave labor in other countries. Countries with no environmental protections and with no labor laws or concern for safety. Imagine you could open a factory in country A or B, but country B's labor and employment law makes your production cost 30% less. You'd be an idiot, and more importantly you would lose in the market if you chose country A. But you slap a tariff on, then it changes the dynamics. It makes the higher pay and labor costs more palatable in country A. The usA has gotten itself in a pickle. It advanced worker rights and minimum wages to the point that shipping their work overseas to countries that don't care about such things is the only rational choice. Perhaps if pay rates go up by some percentage to bring them out of their self isolation, then this will be resolved.

codedokode 1y ago

> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. A usual lack of high qualified low paid workers?

s1artibartfast 1y ago
If that's really the case, then these tariffs are the cure. If outsourcing labor overseas is cost prohibitive, wages will have to rise.
- danny_codes 1y ago
  Or standard of living can fall. Which is quite likely
  - s1artibartfast 1y ago
    Perhaps, but equality would rise in labor starved economy with low standard of living and high costs.
    - jquery 1y ago
      I don't see how that follows. It's not a step up to be forced to work in a factory, compared to before when not working was an option because costs were lower.
    - trinix912 1y ago
      No it wouldn't, it would end up in even more inequality as the middle and lower classes would be able to afford even less while the rich would just see their assets rack up in price. We had that problem in my small European country.
    - Vegenoid 1y ago
      Why? Who is looking at the societies of countries where manufacturing is happening and saying “we want that”? Manufacturing used to be great for the US because other places couldn’t do it, either because they hadn’t developed enough or they’d been ravaged by war. It wasn’t “manufacturing physical goods” that was great for the US, it was “having industry that others don’t”. Now, other countries have manufacturing capability. America’s uniquely exceptional industry is now tech - mostly software, but also hardware design, and design of tech for other industries. That is what we should be focused on - supporting the industries that set us apart from other countries.
    - kristjansson 1y ago
      Nevermind the improbability that a decrease in living standards would actually compress the distribution of living standards - Are you seriously arguing that's desirable? That it's better to reduce everyone's lots so that we can be more equal?
      - s1artibartfast 1y ago
        If you asked me a couple years ago, I would absolutely oppose it, but now I am seriously entertaining the idea that it may be better to live in a poorer but more equal society. It seems that the majority cares far more about comparative wealth than absolute wellbeing, and is willing to destroy the system if they don't get what they want.
        kristjansson 1y ago
        I'd actually agree that, at any level of living standard, the more equal society is probably happier. I'd question whether that'd be an effective _intervention_ though. Actively reducing the median standard of a relatively well-to-do society to compress the overall distribution does not seem like it would lead to a net increase in happiness.
- lodovic 1y ago
  This essentially amounts to subsidizing industries that aren't competitive. It's like choosing to bake bread at home for $5 when you could buy it for just $2.
  - palmotea 1y ago
    > This essentially amounts to subsidizing industries that aren't competitive. That's not a bad thing, especially if they are "not competitive" because foreign workers can be exploited more (and not some real competitive advantage). There are more desirable things than the few neoliberalism optimizes for.
  - xyzzy123 1y ago
    Or it could be interpreted as putting a higher value on self-sufficiency and domestic production capacity than standard free trade economic theories value those things at ($0). Standard comparative advantage narratives don't really account for production "webs" being ecosystems that get big synergies from colocation. They do not account for geopolitical risks either.
    - lodovic 1y ago
      True, it keeps wealth circulating domestically, fostering local economic activity. However, drawbacks of this system are higher costs for consumers and inefficiencies in production, so it needs to be balanced.
porridgeraisin 1y ago
No, this is the effect for the last 50 years' usual "I will have my high paid cushy job while some other country somewhere manufactures products for me, taking on all the negative effects. Only positive effects for me. Yes, you should use our currency and take part in our inflation. Or we'll invade you. We will print 6T USD[1] in 2 years and you need to absorb that along with us." Thankfully, this is coming to an end soon. No tears anywhere. I know a version of this is what happens in every human age, not singling anything out, but don't get onto the moral high ground of "I am just trying to ensure everyone is well paid". [1] additionally, 80% of all US dollars added to the supply were added in the last 5 years.
- yibg 1y ago
  This is the part that confuses me too. The US is in an enviable position where a lot of the "shit" jobs are outsourced and in return we get cheap stuff. Why is this a bad thing?
  - Qworg 1y ago
    It isn't a bad thing - unless you don't have a job/have been stuffed with the idea that meaning and good pay could be yours if not for those foreigners.
  - porridgeraisin 1y ago
    My interpretation is that today other countries are less willing to take on the role the US would like them to. So, the chosen solution in the US now is to wind down this approach, and try to bring back production to the country. I don't know enough to comment on the effectiveness of the method they are using to do this, but that they are doing it is clear to me. China is not going to play this role anymore as has been made clear over the last 2 years. Them being the largest country playing this role for the last decade has fueled this recent revamp in the US. Russia has not really played that role for a long long time. India(me being an Indian, I might be biased) is way way too slow to be depended on to sustain the sheer scale of US' requirements. Also, compared to china, it's actually getting more and more difficult to get "shit jobs" done here, which might be surprising. It is for all the wrong reasons though, so not much to celebrate as an indian. However, india has enough domestic potential to be self sufficient, so nothing to worry about either. A few years ago, I thought the next "dump yard country" for the US would be africa. But their progress to the required level is clearly multiple decades away, so that's out of the window in the short- and medium- term. Europe is already finding it difficult to get much out of Africa, despite still basically controlling multiple countries there. Thus, they are having to resort to immigration from the middle east (some 10 years back, it was all from africa) Needless to say, "freewheelers" (for lack of a better word) such as western europe and australia&oceania were never under consideration, and will never accept this role. Eastern Europe/SEA are "up for grabs", but the former is already saturated playing this role for western europe/russia (and the two fight for control of the same) and the latter is thoroughly saturated playing this role for china. You saw this play out recently with the attempt to get ukraine's rare earth industry serving the US. Russia invaded them for similar reasons. The upper middle east clearly will not play this role, preferring to live in substandard conditions and submit to terrorist organisations instead (and who can blame them?) China seems to love supporting these lot too. Saudi Arabia/UAE are options, and the new US government has made good use of them (atleast on paper) with the new investments. However, they can only do so much given their size, geography and demographics. I never thought they would allow it to happen, but even LatAm is slowly being "lost" to china. And suddenly, you've run out of countries! Maybe we'll find some martians though, they can do the welding for the starship. Strangely, the US is also seemingly losing its ability to maintain an edge through intellectual property. The whole hype in non-technical circles when Deepseek came out was a reaction to this. 20 years ago, it would have been protected better. The IP from 20 years ago is protected well... even today! See: semiconductor manufacturing. Some people say this is because you're now needing to import people too (and so, the knowledge leaks). Some people probe further and say that this happened in the first place because of worsening education in the US. I am inclined to agree with this, since over financialization/trade/empire-building and increasingly poorer education was also what killed medieval india, which I have more knowledge of. However, I might be making more of the symmetry than there is.
blitzar 1y ago
People in the US dont want to work 14 hour shifts for 50c a day for some reason.
- cevi 1y ago
  Think about it: with 20% tariffs, we will now have the option to work 14 hour shifts for 60c a day!

tootie 1y ago

The best option would be to close the gap with immigration but alas...

jquery 1y ago
Or just free trade. Like we had...
AlexandrB 1y ago
Why is that the best option instead of raising wages until those jobs are attractive to domestic workers? There's this weird back and forth where people bemoan stagnating wages for the working class but at the same time cheer on importing labor that is willing to work for those stagnant wages. In any other market, the balance of supply and demand is reflected in the price. But for the labor market the perpetual solution put forward seems to be juicing the supply side so that the price does not move up to a new equilibrium.
- tootie 1y ago
  Both would have to happen. There's very little slack in the labor market to absorb anything. Even if legal permanent residents take up manufacturing jobs, they'd have to give up whatever jobs they have now creating a shortage. And given then even most undocumented people are working, someone needs to fill those jobs.
- Vegenoid 1y ago
  Who is pushing to raise the wages and power of labor? It sure isn’t the party that is pushing tariffs and the return of factories.
  - feraloink 1y ago
    The party that is NOT pushing tariffs is the one who said, between 2012 and 2016, that "they're NEVER coming back" (referring to return of factories and manufacturing jobs). That same party DID try to bring back manufacturing between 2020 and 2024. I think they would have been more successful if it hadn't been for COVID19, for which neither party is to blame.

forgotoldacc 1y ago

This is precisely the problem. Plus, even assuming there existed lots of people to fill the gap, why would they sign up for manufacturing jobs? They pay like crap. Unions and worker rights have been gradually chipped away at for years and now they're straight up chainsawing them. Why work a monotonous job that pays at or just slightly above minimum wage, has skills that aren't really transferable should you decide to change careers, is rough on the body and doesn't even provide proper health care or sick days to rest, and employers will call you in during natural disasters with the threat of firing you otherwise and then leave you to literally die while pretending it's not their fault when you do die? [1] It's companies and the government saying, "We want everything, and in exchange, we'll give you nothing. And you will be happy." No American sees their kid growing up and thinks, "I hope my child will one day work long hours at a factory." People in some countries do, and it's because those jobs are a step up from the current standard. Factory jobs in the US are, in many cases, a step down and that step keeps lowering. High tech/high skilled manufacturing can be an exception, but the bulk of the jobs they're hoping to bring back aren't that. [1] https://www.npr.org/2024/11/02/g-s1-28731/hurricane-helene-tennessee-plastics-factory-deaths-lawsuit https://www.npr.org/2024/11/02/g-s1-28731/hurricane-helene-t...

palmotea 1y ago
> Plus, even assuming there existed lots of people to fill the gap, why would they sign up for manufacturing jobs? They pay like crap. Maybe that's just you talking from a position of relative privilege (e.g. as someone who's likely an extremely well-paid software engineer or some adjacent profession), and not really understanding other people's situation. Not everyone has a pick of the perfect career that ticks every box. It's very well document that there are lots people bitter those manufacturing jobs got off-shored, and lots of communities that wish they'd reopen "the plant."
- forgotoldacc 1y ago
  I'm from a very poor Appalachian town. My only option to better my life was to get up and leave. People from my hometown do talk about the good old days. People worked at union factories and my grandfather worked a well paying railroad job. My no-name town of 1000 people had a train station that made it possible to go to NYC. My grandpa got paid a handsome retirement from the railroad company. When he died, my grandmother was able to receive his benefits. My hometown votes against building railways. The station has long crumbled. They vote against unions. The factories are long gone. They've voted against any sort of retirement benefits. The elderly are struggling and depending on churches handing out food. Even if those factories come back, they'll be paid less than my ancestors did. They'll never have an affordable link to cities hours away. They'll never get the retirement benefits my ancestors had. And if you mention giving them these benefits, they yell and say they don't want them. The youth in my hometown who worked hard in school (we somehow had a decent school, all things considered) used their education as a ticket out. Now the people there are pissed and they're coming for education next. These people don't want "the plant." They want to be young again, without understanding that their youth was great because my ancestors busted their asses to give us great opportunities. They squandered everything that was given to us.

JimBlackwood 1y ago

The US has recently loosened laws regarding child labor. It’s how other countries produce items cheaply, why not the US? That El Salvador prison could also come in useful.

seanmcdirmid 1y ago
That was Florida. Child labor laws are mostly set by the states.
- chgs 1y ago
  Is Flordia not in the US?
  - clarionbell 1y ago
    In the same way that Berlin is entire Germany.
  - ZeroGravitas 1y ago
    Florida is the US of the US.
- bamboozled 1y ago
  Do you think if children were going to be harmed in The USA then maybe the federal government should introduce a ban of that kind of shit federally? I've heard it all now...
  - seanmcdirmid 1y ago
    > Do you think if children were going to be harmed in The USA then maybe the federal government should introduce a ban of that kind of shit federally? I'm not sure the federal government can. There are powers reserved for states that the federal government can't circumvent. They have supremacy, but the jurisdiction of that supremacy is restricted.
- JimBlackwood 1y ago

themagician 1y ago

No people, no supply chain, and no total lack of environmental regulations mean most manufacturing jobs are not coming back no matter what the tariffs are. It's not just one reason that the manufacturing jobs have left, but a conflation of reasons. Unless… well, unless you eliminate the EPA, invade Canada and Greenland and take their raw materials, and make people so poor that they take up factory jobs again.

seydor 1y ago

Suppose you even find those workers. How are american products going to compete with cheaper chinese / european ones. People over there are used to much lower wages / purchasing power. You can look at Tesla vs BYD prices as an example

coderenegade 1y ago
More likely the goal is for foreign companies to set up factories in the US for the domestic market. The US market is too big for most industries to ignore, and as they move manufacturing there, they skill up the US population. Industries don't exist in isolation, and you need to be able to make simpler things in order to cultivate the know-how to make complex things. If China makes better phones, it won't be long until they make better drones. This is as much a strategic initiative as it is an economic one. And BYD should be a wake up call that the US cannot compete in high value goods anymore.
- anonfordays 1y ago
  >If China makes better phones, it won't be long until they make better drones. They already do. China makes the best drones. Most of the drones in the world, most of the drones use in wars, etc. are manufactured in China, or are comprised of mostly Chinese parts.
  - coderenegade 1y ago
    I'm referring to the ones that carry a Q designation, not the DJI kind. China hasn't yet caught up in that domain. Electric drones are seeing a lot of use in Ukraine and other conflicts, but they aren't helping to establish air superiority.
    - mrguyorama 1y ago
      China has direct copies of our Reaper drones, they aren't some advanced technology, they are very simple craft actually, and descend from essentially target drones and some toys the navy put together in the 80s. >but they aren't helping to establish air superiority. A reaper style drone does nothing for air superiority. It's not meant to. It's a surveillance and ground attack platform. It has no means of equipping or targeting actual air to air munitions meant for Air Superiority. Why did you believe the MQ9 was relevant to air superiority? Or some special machine that China couldn't make?

trallnag 1y ago

What's up with the corresponding 7 million young women of working age?

danpalmer 1y ago

I heard a great story from a colleague that worked in fashion development in the UK. There's a big push for "Made in the UK" clothing and consumers associate it with quality, but the items are lower quality, because the UK lost its garment manufacturing skills 50+ years ago. Meanwhile Asia has gained those skills, so if you buy clothes from China they are likely higher quality than you'd get here and cheaper. This is not always the case, Italy still makes high quality leather goods, Portugal is still making good shirts and trousers etc, but for the most part as economies have moved away from manufacturing into services they have lost the skills and to force manufacturing to happen there means accepting higher priced, lower quality products.

smokel 1y ago
This has probably little to do with skill being lost, and more with how little one gets paid to do this kind of work. Skilled people can get jobs in other fields that earn a lot more.
- lotsofpulp 1y ago
  Skilled people don’t just appear out of thin air. Skilled people need years of practice, and advice from a network of adjacent skilled people to become skilled in a particular craft. You can be skilled at Excel and be 10 years away from knowing how to make even mass produced low quality clothing.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
- mitthrowaway2 1y ago
  Skilled people are still mortal and after a couple generations, they do pass away. They won't be replaced by new skilled apprentices if the industry hasn't been hiring.
- danpalmer 1y ago
  No no, it's the skills. My colleague worked for a very high priced fashion brand who were able to pay high rates (and indeed did for this and other parts), but they couldn't get the quality they needed. At the low end, sure, it's obvious you'll get more for your money abroad. The point here is that the skills are lost and you can't pay any amount anymore, at least not at scale (there will always be artisans who can produce extremely low volumes but these don't affect the market much).

coderenegade 1y ago

I don't know that I agree with this. The US is too large a market to ignore, and this is effectively raising the profit margin for local production. Foreign companies will either move some portion of manufacturing to the US (for the domestic market), or cede the market completely, and I don't know that they're prepared to do that (well, maybe Chinese ones are). Factories have a long lead time, so even if this is abolished at the end of his term, they'll be locked in with sunk capital costs. The main reasons not to do this are a) abandoning the market, as mentioned, or b) you think you can hold out long enough until the political landscape changes. If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. Most labor shortages aren't an actual shortage of labor, unless you genuinely can't produce that skillset domestically, or your labor market is so tight that no one is unemployed; rather, they're a shortage of wages. Pay enough, and someone will do the job. This is especially true for low-skilled work. There is not, and never will be, a shortage of cleaners, for example, because anyone can do it, so as long as there are unemployed people and the wages are good enough, someone will do the work. And even if these jobs aren't in running these factories, they've still got to be built. Money is a powerful motivator, so I have no doubt they will. Companies will bleed because of this, but there are clear benefits for the US working class even if they're paying more. The gamble is obviously that the benefits outweigh the negatives of higher prices overall. Modern economics says no, but modern economics also believes in service-based economies, and that countries should only produce what they're good at, which, eventually, becomes a repudiation of the nation state. No country wants to buy bullets from an enemy, even if they're cheaper, and the web of infrastructure and industry necessary to maintain a defense industry mandates that at some point, you abandon the theory. Which is to say: I don't know, but I'm also skeptical that economists do.

foota 1y ago
> If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. Most labor shortages aren't an actual shortage of labor, unless you genuinely can't produce that skillset domestically, or your labor market is so tight that no one is unemployed; rather, they're a shortage of wages I don't know about this in the US. Sure, we're not at full employment, but I don't know how factory jobs are going to change that. My impression is that there is already a deficit in labor willing to work hard for good pay (construction, trucking, etc.,) and tightening immigration policies will make this even worse.

vv_ 1y ago

> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing The core issue is that, historically, experienced workers have passed down their knowledge to new generations, ensuring a steady accumulation of expertise. However, when factories close and seasoned workers retire or move to other fields without training successors, a vast amount of valuable knowledge is lost. Rebuilding this expertise is both difficult and time-consuming. Subsidies will be required to support local production - initially yielding lower-quality or significantly more expensive goods - until the Western world relearns how to manufacture at scale. Furthermore, if you want to build something, you likely won’t do it by hand. You’ll need machines to automate the process or enable complex material operations. Rebuilding this capability from scratch will take time, as existing manufacturers lack the necessary capacity. Additionally, similar equipment is produced much more cheaply in China, creating another challenge that must be addressed. What’s likely to happen is that Chinese manufacturers will establish companies in the United States that replicate their production facilities elsewhere (e.g. mainland China). They’ll ship in parts, and final assembly will take place in the U.S. This approach allows them to bypass trade restrictions while maintaining cost advantages. I already know of several cases where this is happening.

bluGill 1y ago
A lot of that experience isn't needed though - automation replaced a large part of the expertise needs. I used to work at a factory, it produces as much as it ever did (though with a lot of modern innovations), but today only about 200 people work in it, compared to over 2000 in 1950. The CNC laser cutters replaced 70 people running saws with just 3.
- vv_ 1y ago
  This isn't uniformly true in all industries or throughout all manufacturing. Not to mention that you need qualified people to operate and maintain these machines and the machines themselves.
stefs 1y ago
> They’ll ship in parts, and final assembly will take place in the U.S. i thought new the tariffs also applied to parts (with a few exceptions)?

intermerda 1y ago

Well they can always go back to child labor like Florida is planning to - https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/25/business/florida-child-labor-laws/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/25/business/florida-child-labor-...

thrance 1y ago

Can you blame the new generations for not wanting to work their asses off doing arduous manual labor, payed a minimum wage that is barely enough to afford a single room? Republicans made work awful. I've heard some wanting to get rid of minimum wage too. Do you think this will help?

codedokode 1y ago

Actually there are people who are ok to do physical jobs but they are getting deported now.

petesergeant 1y ago

> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing ... I'm sure you'll have Apple investing in a mega plant where 50 educated people push some buttons though. I feel like this could be used to steel-man the Trump administration's plan, though, should you want to. The best-case outcome here for America is it forces large capital investment in automated manufacturing facilities based in the US by making manufacturing that relies on cheap overseas labour expensive enough that the investment is worth it. I'm doubtful, but, in the unlikely event it works like that, and this comes online in the next couple of years without causing a catastrophic wipeout in the mid-terms, Trump will look like a genius. IMO it would have been much smarter to explicitly incentivize this with tax breaks and start with small tariffs that would ramp up a little bit each month, if it's the plan, and not just incoherent policy making.

jsemrau 1y ago

>Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in action. Self-isolated, gaming, addictions. And you never wondered why that is?

franktankbank 1y ago
The only question is how to get them employed where our economy needs them. Honestly I've worked in Manufacturing and it is fucking gnarly. Clean factories don't exist. Many of the men I worked with had some sort of mild mental disorder tending towards aggression. Constantly short serviced machines and price gouging by any contractors involved. There is a lot to figure out and before you end up with a hospitable work environment. I'm doubtful tubby mcgamesalot is going to hold down a job stamping metal parts all day getting his lunch eaten or pissed in.
- creata 1y ago
  Speaking as such an unemployed Tubby McGamesalot (well, minus the gaming) I'm pretty sure we're all aware, and would rather starve than work in manufacturing.
- atom058 1y ago
  We visited a manufacturing / assembly plats for industrial vehicles in Sweden during the autumn. Everything was spotless, bright, and almost silent. All the tools were neatly organised in overhead ergonomic hangers, reducing the stress on the workers. It looked like a great place to work, nor akin to an office than a dirty grimy workshop. On the other hand, I visited a Canadian plant and the difference was stark. There was hardly any lighting, the floor was black with dirt, and the noise was unbearable. This was a small supplier about 10 years ago, so take it with a pinch of salt. There is interesting effects from group dynamics and having a sense of purpose that can help people reintegrate into society. But the work environment has to be prioritised to make it easier on the workers. If the work place looks and acts like a prison camp, you are not going to get those benefits. The point is that clean factories do exist, and manufacturing can be a good place to work. But it needs some work to make it so.
1y ago

fnord77 1y ago

> Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in action. Self-isolated, gaming, addictions. perhaps we'll see something akin to "forced conscription", except for industrial work

lanthissa 1y ago

didnt you listen to the 70 year olds planning this? we're just going have the robots do it. you know how people said putin was surrounded by an echo chamber and thats how he got stuck in ukraine? Thats the us now but with billionare VC's and 2nd tier 1980's NYC real estate developers. Look at their numbers and listen to them talk, they're genuinely not grounded in reality as whole group and theres no fixing that

jccalhoun 1y ago

I recently listened to an episode of the Search Engine podcast where they showed how hard it is to manufacture something completely in the USA: https://www.searchengine.show/listen/search-engine-1/the-puzzle-of-the-all-american-bbq-scrubber https://www.searchengine.show/listen/search-engine-1/the-puz... (Spoilers, the problem they had was that even when they found companies to manufacture their bbq scrubber, it was harder to find someone in the USA to make the parts that are used to make the parts.)

dharmab 1y ago
Simone Giertz said on her channel her company approached multiple factories in the US, EU and China about manufacturing a product. None of the US factories even replied.

sounds 1y ago

> sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Feel free to offer higher wages than the previous stagnant wages.

hnthrow90348765 1y ago

No one will want to do lower income jobs while the cost of living is high and continues to rise. Wear and tear on the body is also not compensated, not to mention healthcare being expensive. Meanwhile, I do CRUD apps and work remotely 20/hours a week with no bodily harm (on the contrary, I have time to work out and make bad posts on HN) No one in their right mind is going to choose manufacturing over what I have if they can do both, and most people could honestly learn to do CRUD apps. Even if my salary were to go down by 5-10% yoy due to people moving in, I'm still in a better position for the other reasons mentioned. I'd have to be below manufacturing and blue collar wages to get me to switch. The only sensible explanation is that they're trying to force people to have to take these jobs by crashing the globalized parts of the economy because they are obviously better than starving and dying homeless. All this assuming that Trump isn't just intentionally trying to destroy the country.

dfilppi 1y ago

[dead]

0x5f3759df-i 1y ago

This is basic economics that the administration refuses to understand. Trade allows you to consume beyond your nation’s manpower and resource constraints. And it’s even stupider when you’re putting tariffs on raw materials like Canadian lumber. So not only do we need to magically find millions of workers to work in these new factories we also need to find a bunch of lumberjacks and start cutting down our own trees? We’re at 4% unemployment, who’s going to do this work? We literally don’t have the people to make this work.

dpedu 1y ago

If this is true, why are US wages stagnating?

sdsd 1y ago

In real life, people are spending years looking for jobs making enough to barely survive. I should tell them about your video you saw, if only they know.

summerlight 1y ago

Agreed, the root of the problem is that America has relatively zero modern manufacturing infrastructure and manpower, especially compared to China. Those MAGA folks just don't know this. Offshoring happened not just because of cheaper price; China already had a much better environment even 20 years ago thanks to billions of people.

spamlettuce 1y ago

If there was a real labor demand shortage wouldn't there be actual wage growth though ?

seabrookmx 1y ago
But if wages increase so does cost of manufacturing in the US, making US goods less competitive not more?

soerxpso 1y ago

> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing I am willing to move anywhere in the US to do any manufacturing job if it means that I will be paid enough to afford a house with two bedrooms and basic living expenses. I have a bachelor's degree and have been unable to find such an arrangement. So where exactly are all of these unfilled jobs that you speak of? Are they unfilled because we don't have the people, or because they're trying to pay in peanuts? Unfilled because we don't have the people, or because HR departments are filtering away qualified resumes based on voodoo? This outlandish claim you're making that we don't want to work is offensive to a lot of people who are aware of their own existence and know that you're spouting bullshit to trick people into more wealth inequality. Your 7 million young men aren't 'missing', you're just refusing to hire them. The jobs don't exist.

DennisP 1y ago

Good thing we're deporting so many people then.

h2zizzle 1y ago

Eh. This always gets presented as a, "Why don't Millennial/Zoomer/Alpha men want to work?" Lack of training? Maybe. But I see that as more of a subset of the actual issue, which is two-fold: work conditions and compensation. So many jobs suck, and pay less than they should, and provide no real opportunity for growth. Let's break it down: Jobs that suck: bad hours, bad bosses, bad processes that create inefficiency and stress. Jobs that don't pay: can't afford a house, can't afford to date/get married/have children, can't establish a stable lifestyle . Jobs that don't allow for growth: masters don't pass along their skills, managers don't promote (and, eventually, step aside), employers push employees out with stagnation and the hoarding of opportunities for nepo-hires or outsiders. And why are we in this situation? Essentially, because someone likes the way things are. Managers and seniors don't want to change their work styles, even if those styles are dysfunctional. Employers don't want to pay. Older workers don't want to leave, or jeopardize their marketability by training juniors. Every young worker can tell you about their experiences with older workers who promise to train and won't, managers who promise advancement and don't, having to be in the office at an ungodly hour or the warehouse or factory late into the night. And for what? Nothing of the American Dream, at least without putting up with the more ridiculous end of the job spectrum, or having been born into money, or having been lucky enough to rub shoulders with someone born into money. It's Japan's hikikomori problem, transposed. Japanese authorities constantly blame the shut-ins, but outside observers recognize that the problem actually lies with the "functional" side of society, and its unwillingness to confront the way it alienates and produces perfectly reasonable, if dysfunctional, responses in these men (and women).

RobKohr 1y ago

Manufacturing pays very little, and for good reason. You are competing with sometimes slave labor in other countries. Countries with no environmental protections and with no labor laws or concern for safety. Imagine you could open a factory in country A or B, but country B's labor and employment law makes your production cost 30% less. You'd be an idiot, and more importantly you would lose in the market if you chose country A. But you slap a tariff on, then it changes the dynamics. It makes the higher pay and labor costs more palatable in country A. The usA has gotten itself in a pickle. It advanced worker rights and minimum wages to the point that shipping their work overseas to countries that don't care about such things is the only rational choice. Perhaps if pay rates go up by some percentage to bring them out of their self isolation, then this will be resolved.