6 ms·

UBI is probably going to happen I think. But I don't think it's going to achieve much. Yes it's going to give common people some foothold, but with automation a

UBI is probably going to happen I think. But I don't think it's going to achieve much. Yes it's going to give common people some foothold, but with automation and AI I really doubt we need that many jobs, and unemployment rate is going to be high anyway. The elites are going to throw UBI as a bone and then they can do whatever they want. And that's it -- A cyberpunk future where elites can pretty much ignore the common people. Am I too pessimistic and/or narrow-minded? Maybe. But I don't think AI and AI powered robotics replacing humans is the same as trains replacing wagons. We will see. Edit The reason I think UBI won't fix much is, UBI cannot give people purposes to live. Obviously we already have enough material wealth for everyone and UBI is just a confirmation. But "meaning" is always a luxury, and will be more so when less people need to work.

dttze 2y ago
This is the optimistic take. The reality is they will find some way to cull the unwanted poor. These elites in power are stupid, cruel, spiteful, and have no sense of decency.
- markus_zhang 2y ago
  If they don't adopt UBI then some populist politicians are gonna raise a flag and grab some power. They don't really need those lower end resources anyway. I think they are OK to give them away just in case.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    > If they don't adopt UBI then some populist politicians are gonna raise a flag and grab some power. Only in a democracy. China has elections, but is also a one-party state. Given the culture (thinking in terms of the group rather than the individual), I think they may actually want UBI anyway. America is a democracy right now, but such things have been known to change before. Doesn't even need to be all at once — say the US disenfranchised convicted felons, that would mean the sitting president wouldn't be allowed to vote… and because I google before posting comments, wouldn't you know it, this is already a thing the states do: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felony_disenfranchisement_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felony_disenfranchisement_in_t... (I don't know how accurate the book title is, does the average American really commit 3 per day? https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Three-Felonies-Day-Target-Innocent/dp/1594035229 https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Three-Felonies-Day-Target-Innocen...)
  - jimbokun 2y ago
    The trouble is those populist politicians, in the US at least, are the very same billionaires at the top of the system who have somehow convinced the working class people they are on their side.
- hnthrow90348765 2y ago
  What I think will happen is the US tries to mimic China by creating an even lower class of our workers that form a new industrial/manufacturing base to compete with. This becomes less of a difficult pill to swallow if a) we're involved in a trade war, b) the economy has crashed and we must work our way out of it "for the country", c) the right people get enough money. They're too smart for mass murder because that would actually spark a resistance, not to mention get other nations involved. I don't think a sweatshop labor economy will spark a resistance because we can't even resist our current labor abuses (and neither can that segment of China's population).
  - alienthrowaway 2y ago
    > What I think will happen is the US tries to mimic China by creating an even lower class of our workers that form a new industrial/manufacturing base to compete with. Still too optimistic on how long-term the American approach will be. There won't be a UBI, the oligarchy will be paid directly from government coffers. The deficit, bonds and other government instruments will paper over the collapse of tax-revenue and population for a while, before the whole house of cards collapses[1]. I think the billionaires hope to be in space habitats or dead by then, if not, there's always their bunkers in New Zealand - their cache of gold bars should still work there after they ravage the USD. Capital knows no borders. 1. See late 1990s Russia. Only simple, extractive industries will chug along.
    - tangjurine 2y ago
      like what?
  - eli_gottlieb 2y ago
    > They're too smart for mass murder because that would actually spark a resistance I don't think they're too smart for that. They're too lazy. They prefer to just gut public health and let disease take care of the culling.
- pcthrowaway 2y ago
  > The reality is they will find some way to cull the unwanted poor. I fear this is going to be achieved with a World War in the not-too-distant future. Get rid of a lot of dissatisfied poor people and seize some more resources for the wealthy at the same time.
llamaimperative 2y ago
UBI won't fix much for a far more trivial and mechanistic reason: adding $1,000/mo to everyone's income merely gives landlords the ability to charge ($1,000*n bedrooms)/mo more in rent.
- markus_zhang 2y ago
  I think this can be fixed with social housing. Not a fundamental issue but yes I agree this is an issue. The UBI in my mind is not $$$ but merchandises and services coupons.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  Landlords have pricing power because people have to live close to their jobs. If UBI lets people move freely, landlords lose their pricing power.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - tcfunk 2y ago
    I always disagree with this moving freely argument. Certainly some live where they do specifically for work, but some are also there to be close to family. They will not be interested in relocating to save a buck.
    - bryanlarsen 2y ago
      In other words, the real estate market is sticky. There are large costs to moving, so consumers put up with price increases more readily than they do in other markets. But there's a big gulf between "sticky" and "laws of supply and demand don't apply". People on UBI will be much more price sensitive than those supplementing with wage income since the UBI dependent will be time rich and money poor. Landlords will have less power over them. They'll still have some power because of the stickiness.
      - 2y ago
ben_w 2y ago
If "meaning" was a good argument against UBI, then nobody would want pensions, because UBI is exactly the same as setting the state pension age to zero.
- slothtrop 2y ago
  Leaving aside that older people aren't as enthused about FT work they've known for 30 years, many of them keep jobs or get bored and lonely without them. Not everyone wants to sit around crafting useless projects, or consuming. Creating value for others and connecting (and status signaling) can provide meaning, and granted in retirement there are other vectors for that made available such as volunteering. It's not a good argument against UBI, but there are better arguments against UBI.
  - markus_zhang 2y ago
    I think volunteering could actually solve part of that. Butarge scale of volunteering work, thinking about the scale of unemployment in the future, might need governments to step in to create them.
  - AngryData 2y ago
    You don't have to make a binary choice between work and useless craft projects. Community projects and helping other people in their more meaningful projects can be useful and be fulfilling and make someone feel accomplished. Part of the problem with working as much as possible until retirement age is you never build any community presence or report and don't often make friends doing their own projects that would need your help.
elcritch 2y ago
The elites leaving common folk relatively alone would be a best case scenario. If people are free to build and supply for themselves with UBI then life wouldn’t be bad. Problem is elites usually want control. Oh you’re running small scale manufacturing with open source AI and robots? That’ll be a fine for “safety” reasons. Look at California requiring permits for everything.
chasd00 2y ago
by "UBI" i think you just mean everyone, except for a few, will be on food stamps.
- nartho 2y ago
  Do you have data to back up this claim or is this just bar talk ?
feoren 2y ago
I too worry about a future where the rich no longer have any need for the poor. I think the scenario where the rich end up just giving the poor a bit of money each month is an extremely optimistic one. Much more realistic is a slow genocide, where the poor simply die en masse in the streets due to having no homes, food, and healthcare, while such homelessness becomes both increasingly more unavoidable and more illegal. And before talk about violent uprisings and guillotines: surveillance and law enforcement are also becoming increasingly more powerful and automated. The French Revolution might have turned out differently if the Bourgeoisie had cameras on every street corner and AI-powered murder drones.
- codedokode 2y ago
  Aren't you too pessimistic? 1 kg of rice costs somewhere around $2 here and you won't eat it in a day. So with $20-30 you can have a month worth amount of rice. You don't need thousands of dollars to survive. And giving everyone $30 every month won't break even developing country economy.
  - DrFalkyn 2y ago
    1 kg of rice has 1300 calories. Not enough for most adults. And not very appetizing if that’s all you eat
  - feoren 2y ago
    How are you cooking that rice? With rainwater collected from gutters over a trash can fire? Both of which are illegal, by the way. How are you preventing others from stealing your rice? Where are you eating it? Where are you sleeping at night? Yes, of course you need thousands of dollars to survive. The problem is rent, not food.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
opan 2y ago
>The reason I think UBI won't fix much is, UBI cannot give people purposes to live. Obviously we already have enough material wealth for everyone and UBI is just a confirmation. But "meaning" is always a luxury, and will be more so when less people need to work. I agree that people will still want/need meaning, and some may lose it, along with their jobs, but having the money for basic needs by default gives you the ability to explore your interests with less risk. You can spend 6 months learning to paint or program or write stories without worrying about food and bills if UBI is properly implemented. If you miss your tech support job, you can go idle in 30 channels on Libera and help people that wander in asking questions about whatever software. What am I missing here? People giving up without trying to find something to do? People who feel useless if they aren't the family breadwinner? I personally look forward to a day when most people don't need to work, and instead can "work" on what they choose.
- gusmally 2y ago
  Also I think a large chunk of people will be happy to just consume media all day.
  - consteval 2y ago
    Or, less pessimistic, a lot of people are happy to consume human relationships all day. That’s what life has always been about for a large segment of people, going back thousands of years. Media is more or less a bandaid. People are busy, people are anxious, people don’t want to bother to spend money - media can give the sensation of human interaction without the hard bits. But ultimately, if I could never work but I was surrounded by my loved ones forever, I would be pretty happy with that. We can find stuff to do, or just do nothing at all. With them, it’s always a blast.
squigz 2y ago
> The reason I think UBI won't fix much is, UBI cannot give people purposes to live. Obviously we already have enough material wealth for everyone and UBI is just a confirmation. But "meaning" is always a luxury, and will be more so when less people need to work. Employment is the only - or even best - way of finding meaning in one's life?
UncleOxidant 2y ago
> The reason I think UBI won't fix much is, UBI cannot give people purposes to live. Obviously we already have enough material wealth for everyone and UBI is just a confirmation. But "meaning" is always a luxury, and will be more so when less people need to work. It's not like most jobs in this economy provide purpose and meaning now as it is. People on UBI can find meaning in hobbies, art, hiking, friendships, and other things that they currently don't have time for. Volunteering is another route. Remember how everyone started baking sourdough bread and making home cooked meals when the pandemic started? We'll find other ways to have purpose and meaning. UBI will be a lot like retirement is now only it will last for a much longer portion of the lifetime.
greenie_beans 2y ago
i'm very far left ideologically and i think UBI in the current political economy is a bad idea because it's just gonna go to rent etc. all the capitalists will raise their prices.
SergeAx 2y ago
UBI cannot work in a free-ish market. Suppliers of basic needs (housing, water, energy, food) will crank their prices to include UBI.
intosh 2y ago
Purpose. I'm sure lots of people don't think of it as their purpose to work in factories and offices performing some routines they don't particularly enjoy but had to because they have to. You have to think outside of this consenting slavery box. Individuals will find meaning in their lives. Volunteering is one. Learning a craft is another. Acquiring knowledge and improving oneself as a person is one too. Americans/westerners keep lecturing about "freedom" but they don't even recognize what real freedom is.

dttze 2y ago

This is the optimistic take. The reality is they will find some way to cull the unwanted poor. These elites in power are stupid, cruel, spiteful, and have no sense of decency.

markus_zhang 2y ago
If they don't adopt UBI then some populist politicians are gonna raise a flag and grab some power. They don't really need those lower end resources anyway. I think they are OK to give them away just in case.
- ben_w 2y ago
  > If they don't adopt UBI then some populist politicians are gonna raise a flag and grab some power. Only in a democracy. China has elections, but is also a one-party state. Given the culture (thinking in terms of the group rather than the individual), I think they may actually want UBI anyway. America is a democracy right now, but such things have been known to change before. Doesn't even need to be all at once — say the US disenfranchised convicted felons, that would mean the sitting president wouldn't be allowed to vote… and because I google before posting comments, wouldn't you know it, this is already a thing the states do: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felony_disenfranchisement_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felony_disenfranchisement_in_t... (I don't know how accurate the book title is, does the average American really commit 3 per day? https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Three-Felonies-Day-Target-Innocent/dp/1594035229 https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Three-Felonies-Day-Target-Innocen...)
- jimbokun 2y ago
  The trouble is those populist politicians, in the US at least, are the very same billionaires at the top of the system who have somehow convinced the working class people they are on their side.
hnthrow90348765 2y ago
What I think will happen is the US tries to mimic China by creating an even lower class of our workers that form a new industrial/manufacturing base to compete with. This becomes less of a difficult pill to swallow if a) we're involved in a trade war, b) the economy has crashed and we must work our way out of it "for the country", c) the right people get enough money. They're too smart for mass murder because that would actually spark a resistance, not to mention get other nations involved. I don't think a sweatshop labor economy will spark a resistance because we can't even resist our current labor abuses (and neither can that segment of China's population).
- alienthrowaway 2y ago
  > What I think will happen is the US tries to mimic China by creating an even lower class of our workers that form a new industrial/manufacturing base to compete with. Still too optimistic on how long-term the American approach will be. There won't be a UBI, the oligarchy will be paid directly from government coffers. The deficit, bonds and other government instruments will paper over the collapse of tax-revenue and population for a while, before the whole house of cards collapses[1]. I think the billionaires hope to be in space habitats or dead by then, if not, there's always their bunkers in New Zealand - their cache of gold bars should still work there after they ravage the USD. Capital knows no borders. 1. See late 1990s Russia. Only simple, extractive industries will chug along.
  - tangjurine 2y ago
    like what?
- eli_gottlieb 2y ago
  > They're too smart for mass murder because that would actually spark a resistance I don't think they're too smart for that. They're too lazy. They prefer to just gut public health and let disease take care of the culling.
pcthrowaway 2y ago
> The reality is they will find some way to cull the unwanted poor. I fear this is going to be achieved with a World War in the not-too-distant future. Get rid of a lot of dissatisfied poor people and seize some more resources for the wealthy at the same time.

llamaimperative 2y ago

UBI won't fix much for a far more trivial and mechanistic reason: adding $1,000/mo to everyone's income merely gives landlords the ability to charge ($1,000*n bedrooms)/mo more in rent.

markus_zhang 2y ago
I think this can be fixed with social housing. Not a fundamental issue but yes I agree this is an issue. The UBI in my mind is not $$$ but merchandises and services coupons.
bryanlarsen 2y ago
Landlords have pricing power because people have to live close to their jobs. If UBI lets people move freely, landlords lose their pricing power.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- tcfunk 2y ago
  I always disagree with this moving freely argument. Certainly some live where they do specifically for work, but some are also there to be close to family. They will not be interested in relocating to save a buck.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    In other words, the real estate market is sticky. There are large costs to moving, so consumers put up with price increases more readily than they do in other markets. But there's a big gulf between "sticky" and "laws of supply and demand don't apply". People on UBI will be much more price sensitive than those supplementing with wage income since the UBI dependent will be time rich and money poor. Landlords will have less power over them. They'll still have some power because of the stickiness.
    - 2y ago

ben_w 2y ago

If "meaning" was a good argument against UBI, then nobody would want pensions, because UBI is exactly the same as setting the state pension age to zero.

slothtrop 2y ago
Leaving aside that older people aren't as enthused about FT work they've known for 30 years, many of them keep jobs or get bored and lonely without them. Not everyone wants to sit around crafting useless projects, or consuming. Creating value for others and connecting (and status signaling) can provide meaning, and granted in retirement there are other vectors for that made available such as volunteering. It's not a good argument against UBI, but there are better arguments against UBI.
- markus_zhang 2y ago
  I think volunteering could actually solve part of that. Butarge scale of volunteering work, thinking about the scale of unemployment in the future, might need governments to step in to create them.
- AngryData 2y ago
  You don't have to make a binary choice between work and useless craft projects. Community projects and helping other people in their more meaningful projects can be useful and be fulfilling and make someone feel accomplished. Part of the problem with working as much as possible until retirement age is you never build any community presence or report and don't often make friends doing their own projects that would need your help.

elcritch 2y ago

The elites leaving common folk relatively alone would be a best case scenario. If people are free to build and supply for themselves with UBI then life wouldn’t be bad. Problem is elites usually want control. Oh you’re running small scale manufacturing with open source AI and robots? That’ll be a fine for “safety” reasons. Look at California requiring permits for everything.

chasd00 2y ago

by "UBI" i think you just mean everyone, except for a few, will be on food stamps.

nartho 2y ago
Do you have data to back up this claim or is this just bar talk ?

feoren 2y ago

I too worry about a future where the rich no longer have any need for the poor. I think the scenario where the rich end up just giving the poor a bit of money each month is an extremely optimistic one. Much more realistic is a slow genocide, where the poor simply die en masse in the streets due to having no homes, food, and healthcare, while such homelessness becomes both increasingly more unavoidable and more illegal. And before talk about violent uprisings and guillotines: surveillance and law enforcement are also becoming increasingly more powerful and automated. The French Revolution might have turned out differently if the Bourgeoisie had cameras on every street corner and AI-powered murder drones.

codedokode 2y ago
Aren't you too pessimistic? 1 kg of rice costs somewhere around $2 here and you won't eat it in a day. So with $20-30 you can have a month worth amount of rice. You don't need thousands of dollars to survive. And giving everyone $30 every month won't break even developing country economy.
- DrFalkyn 2y ago
  1 kg of rice has 1300 calories. Not enough for most adults. And not very appetizing if that’s all you eat
- feoren 2y ago
  How are you cooking that rice? With rainwater collected from gutters over a trash can fire? Both of which are illegal, by the way. How are you preventing others from stealing your rice? Where are you eating it? Where are you sleeping at night? Yes, of course you need thousands of dollars to survive. The problem is rent, not food.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

opan 2y ago

>The reason I think UBI won't fix much is, UBI cannot give people purposes to live. Obviously we already have enough material wealth for everyone and UBI is just a confirmation. But "meaning" is always a luxury, and will be more so when less people need to work. I agree that people will still want/need meaning, and some may lose it, along with their jobs, but having the money for basic needs by default gives you the ability to explore your interests with less risk. You can spend 6 months learning to paint or program or write stories without worrying about food and bills if UBI is properly implemented. If you miss your tech support job, you can go idle in 30 channels on Libera and help people that wander in asking questions about whatever software. What am I missing here? People giving up without trying to find something to do? People who feel useless if they aren't the family breadwinner? I personally look forward to a day when most people don't need to work, and instead can "work" on what they choose.

gusmally 2y ago
Also I think a large chunk of people will be happy to just consume media all day.
- consteval 2y ago
  Or, less pessimistic, a lot of people are happy to consume human relationships all day. That’s what life has always been about for a large segment of people, going back thousands of years. Media is more or less a bandaid. People are busy, people are anxious, people don’t want to bother to spend money - media can give the sensation of human interaction without the hard bits. But ultimately, if I could never work but I was surrounded by my loved ones forever, I would be pretty happy with that. We can find stuff to do, or just do nothing at all. With them, it’s always a blast.

squigz 2y ago

UncleOxidant 2y ago

> The reason I think UBI won't fix much is, UBI cannot give people purposes to live. Obviously we already have enough material wealth for everyone and UBI is just a confirmation. But "meaning" is always a luxury, and will be more so when less people need to work. It's not like most jobs in this economy provide purpose and meaning now as it is. People on UBI can find meaning in hobbies, art, hiking, friendships, and other things that they currently don't have time for. Volunteering is another route. Remember how everyone started baking sourdough bread and making home cooked meals when the pandemic started? We'll find other ways to have purpose and meaning. UBI will be a lot like retirement is now only it will last for a much longer portion of the lifetime.

greenie_beans 2y ago

i'm very far left ideologically and i think UBI in the current political economy is a bad idea because it's just gonna go to rent etc. all the capitalists will raise their prices.

SergeAx 2y ago

UBI cannot work in a free-ish market. Suppliers of basic needs (housing, water, energy, food) will crank their prices to include UBI.

intosh 2y ago

Purpose. I'm sure lots of people don't think of it as their purpose to work in factories and offices performing some routines they don't particularly enjoy but had to because they have to. You have to think outside of this consenting slavery box. Individuals will find meaning in their lives. Volunteering is one. Learning a craft is another. Acquiring knowledge and improving oneself as a person is one too. Americans/westerners keep lecturing about "freedom" but they don't even recognize what real freedom is.