46 ms·

Strange that the main problem is not even mentioned: The entire process from urban planning to construction completion can take 10-12 years, including about 5-

Strange that the main problem is not even mentioned: The entire process from urban planning to construction completion can take 10-12 years, including about 5-6 years for general urban development planning and 2 years for partial planning and urban development projects. source: https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Low-supply-of-housing_Eng.pdf https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Low-... So may be if you solve the supply first, then you won't need to try to regulate the pricing. The law of supply and demand is like the Newton's laws of physics, it works. But in Europe, the bureaucrats try to solve the problems created by regulation with even more regulation. It'll end badly when the far left/right use this to win the elections and who knows what will happen.

guax 2y ago
That's why real estate in New York and SFO is so cheap and accessible. Free market!
- mmiyer 2y ago
  The housing market in San Francisco is very much not free. Most areas are single family zoned so you are not allowed to build apartments (which are very much needed to meet demand), and extensive approvals are required to build anything. https://thefrisc.com/how-long-it-really-takes-to-get-a-building-permit-in-san-francisco-and-why-7f00dac3bf79/ https://thefrisc.com/how-long-it-really-takes-to-get-a-build... Although it is true that the problem of excessive bureaucracy is not exclusive to Europe and very common in the US too.
- BobAliceInATree 2y ago
  Who said a free market must be cheap or accessible?
- appreciatorBus 2y ago
  If real eastate in NYC & SFO is a free market, why do homeowners & landowners need to go through a political process & seek favour with neighbours in order to get permission to build a 3 storey apartment building? A world where bakers had to seek permission of other bakers to increase their daily bread production wouldn't be called a market, it would be called a cartel, and no one would be surprised to see bread prices rising through the roof if the cartel members were successful at enforcement.
Oarch 2y ago
It's the wild profiteering that must be addressed first. Otherwise the already wealthy buy up the new properties and the problem grows worse
Funes- 2y ago
>main problem You mean mass immigration and greed?
fph 2y ago
Systems theory tells you that everything with a big lag in it is difficult to stabilize. It's like when you want to set the correct temperature on your shower; the longer it takes for you to feel the results, the trickier it is.
- hombre_fatal 2y ago
  Use binary search and you can get that shower dialed in three moves.
  - reaperman 2y ago
    More than 3 moves if the 0%-100% control range is a very narrow sub-range of the input range. i.e. 90% of the handle movement doesn't do anything at all. This is actually surprisingly common, often the full range of hot to cold happens between 5-15% of actuation or 85-95% of actuation.
    - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
      Most European shower controls don't work this way anymore, they are thermostatic (i.e. you are just setting the desired water temperature, not directly adjusting the hot/cold balance). These are spreading to high-end US installs too.
      - imtringued 2y ago
        This is one of the weirdest things about showers. You set your shower temperature on the heater itself and then you pull the temperature handle all the way to the hottest temperature. There is no point in actually trying to dial in the temperature using the handle. Just don't. Btw. I'm talking about tankless heaters.
PicassoCTs 2y ago
But the market does not want to devalue the immo-coin by mining more coin. The market wants to pump and dump.
kubb 2y ago
> The law of supply and demand is like the Newton's laws of physics, it works. Do they teach this to you guys in school? Many people religiously believe it. Newtonian physics is a model approximating reality, but it breaks down if you analyze cases that can be safely ignored for many engineering purposes, like traveling at high speeds. Supply and demand are worse. They’re concepts approximating certain trends in economic outcomes that almost always break down in real world situations. For example: more supply can generate more demand. Demand can be inflexible with respect to supply. Supply and demand are unstable and can change unpredictably. In a monopoly situation price can be manipulated. Short term large supply can hamper long term. It’s weird that people try to explain the world with supply and demand as if everyone else was an idiot who doesn’t understand simple truths, while in reality they are the ones who don’t appreciate the complexity of things like urban development.
- aimanbenbaha 2y ago
  >For example: more supply can generate more demand. Demand can be inflexible with respect to supply. Supply and demand are unstable and can change unpredictably. In a monopoly situation price can be manipulated. Short term large supply can hamper long term. What you're describing here is jevon's paradox and it particularly works on unfulfilled markets with high price elasticity. Additionally the field of economics deals a lot of what you're describing in the contexts of monopolies/monopsonies. But as a general rule of thumb, if something has an inelastic demand (as in housing) the law of supply and demand will always be the guiding concept to explain the shortage and high prices.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
    A law of supply and demand that applies only to something with inelastic demand (and housing is not a perfect example of such a thing) is very different than some universal law of economics, and even more different than any law of physics.
- whatshisface 2y ago
  All of the scenarios you're talking about are covered in economics 101. You're describing supply and demand with them. In supply and demand, you have these things called "supply curves," and "demand curves." The price is on the x axis, and the volume cleared in the marketplace is on the y axis. Changes in the situation move the curves around.
raverbashing 2y ago
And to be very honest, the problem in Spain is much lower than in other European countries (including the UK) and they keep building
mihaaly 2y ago
Property market in prime spots has to be regulated everywhere and is regulated everywhere including the (soon to be changing) freeest of the free country of US. Probably the real problem is the not enough regulation against investment focused property dealings when the population suffers with this essential (next to food, water, health) immediate and everyday human need. Those not letting the money do what it is for and not spend it but want to park it as long as possible drawing out increasing amount from the circulation laying dormant in property where it is not even not doing anything useful (but the fake value increase generated by parking itself) but suffocate the remaining part of society and economy sucking away money from other places dearly needed. Pulling back functional economy a lot. Law makers usually have high stakes in property ownership or are influenced very heavily by those with lots of wealth to be parked for the eternity and there are not enough regulations against speculative investments in this essential and everyday human need, distorting it, ruining it for the population really need it for its real purpose: shelter. Normally I'd say let people do what they want and after they drove the cities into ground with creating unlivable situations, take away its essence and charm and attractiveness as places where people live and strive then it will reborn on the ashes made by excessive tourism and investments, have a natural cycle of birth and death, but those could take several generations and we all live only a single one, it is difficult to watch the cities ruined by the greedy and the selfish while having a coffee with a 'this is fine' look.
jisnsm 2y ago
Not only is the supply side constrained; Spain has received over 2 million immigrants in the last five years who need housing and who tend to go live in the cities since that’s where jobs are.
thrance 2y ago
How's the free market working for you? Is rent cheaper on your side of the pond? Can you afford your medicine? I am tired of this zealotry toward free market absolutism, thougtlessly reciting econ 101's tenets as a mantra. Free stuff is good actually, some industries just work better and more efficiently as a centralized common: electricity, water, rail, healthcare... That's an empirical fact. I believe housing too could be on the list. There is more to the economy than rational agents systematically looking for what's best at the lowest prices and lawful entrepreneurs tirelessly striving to improve the utility of their customers.
- dmix 2y ago
  Housing is as regulated in American big cities as it is in Europe. That’s always been the critique in SF and NYC and elsewhere? Aggressive city planning, outdated unchanging zoning, backlogs, rapid growth of heritage building, NIMBY protectionism supported by municipal gov, extreme tenant laws disincentivizing renting half empty properties, etc etc. The only solutions they’ve tried are rent control and extremely slow gov investment in housing which have done nothing to help (rent control historically reduces supply making the problem worse). They’ve tried everything except liberalizing the market and letting people build. We don’t need to wait for huge gov spending programs to solve a problem when there’s already a mountain of capital waiting to build the second the gov lets them do it.
- robocat 2y ago
  > some industries just work better and more efficiently as a centralized common: electricity, water, rail, healthcare... That's an empirical fact. Not a fact. Easily demonstrated by falsification by examples of each of those where they have failed because of centralization. Infrastructure is deviously hard to get right. Edit: we can find examples of decentralized infrastructure that works great (internet, Apps, banking). Healthcare in particular must always fail because there's an unreasonably infinite cost for and ideal service. There's no good answer to what price (what resource limitations) we should put on fixing little Jimmy's cancer. Governments struggle to make compromises in healthcare, and plenty of citizens are super unhappy with any compromises made. Of course a free market can't fix that problem either. Disclosure: I'm not a free market zealot. Too many people want to define sides and then get idealist about "their side"; how tiresome. Perhaps you are similar to the free market zealots? > I believe housing too could be on the Be careful of what you wish for. Government housing is rarely brought out as an example of success? Maybe Singapore. "Too much government" is a common reason for housing (market) failure. Supply availability is mostly constrained by regulations. Demand is driven by desirability. House prices are driven by mortgage availability in developed countries. House unavailablity is often because of governmental choices over regulations and interest rates. Governments obviously mostly fail to get those right. What makes you believe a government can get socialised housing right? We don't have infinite resources. Neither government provided services nor free markets solve that. Anyone answering with either of those solutions is the same. You might find this article interesting: https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/08/30/libertarians-took-control-of-this-small-town-it-didnt-end-well/ https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/08/30/libertarians-took-c...
temp00345 2y ago
> The law of supply and demand is like the Newton's laws of physics, it works. Adam Smith was not aware of advertising. Suppliers can fabricate demand to manipulate the price. It's not a law, it's an assumption about human psychology and a wrong one. In the case of Barcelona, supply is limited due to the geography of the area (sea/mountain) and the inner city is already extremely dense.
- freefaler 2y ago
  > Suppliers can fabricate demand to manipulate the price. It's not a law, it's an assumption about human psychology and a wrong one. Really? Try selling pork sausages to Saudi market. There are many failed startups with huge marketing budgets failed, because there were not enough demand for their products.
  - Mountain_Skies 2y ago
    Someone made a bunch of money a few years ago selling singing pickles. Doubt there was a sudden human need for singing pickles. Someone created that demand.
    - freefaler 2y ago
      If they made the choice by their own volition (even if it's influenced by the marketing) may be they had some need for entertainment or consumerism fulfilled by it? To disprove supply/demand means that no matter the price of the pickles the number of pickles sold wouldn't change.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
    "There is no X in Y" is not a proof that "There is no X". The MIT Press had a book in the 90s called "Philosophies of Manufacture" that gathered together writings, pamphlets, letters and more that flowed around as the industrial revolution ramped up in the USA. It is filled with the actual industrialists and/or capitalists fretting about how there would not be enough demand for their products, and openly formulating plans to increase demand via new means (which today we would call advertising and marketing). This is not some idea flowing from progressive politics, it originates with the capital class itself.

guax 2y ago

That's why real estate in New York and SFO is so cheap and accessible. Free market!

mmiyer 2y ago
The housing market in San Francisco is very much not free. Most areas are single family zoned so you are not allowed to build apartments (which are very much needed to meet demand), and extensive approvals are required to build anything. https://thefrisc.com/how-long-it-really-takes-to-get-a-building-permit-in-san-francisco-and-why-7f00dac3bf79/ https://thefrisc.com/how-long-it-really-takes-to-get-a-build... Although it is true that the problem of excessive bureaucracy is not exclusive to Europe and very common in the US too.
BobAliceInATree 2y ago
Who said a free market must be cheap or accessible?
appreciatorBus 2y ago
If real eastate in NYC & SFO is a free market, why do homeowners & landowners need to go through a political process & seek favour with neighbours in order to get permission to build a 3 storey apartment building? A world where bakers had to seek permission of other bakers to increase their daily bread production wouldn't be called a market, it would be called a cartel, and no one would be surprised to see bread prices rising through the roof if the cartel members were successful at enforcement.

Oarch 2y ago

It's the wild profiteering that must be addressed first. Otherwise the already wealthy buy up the new properties and the problem grows worse

Funes- 2y ago

>main problem You mean mass immigration and greed?

fph 2y ago

Systems theory tells you that everything with a big lag in it is difficult to stabilize. It's like when you want to set the correct temperature on your shower; the longer it takes for you to feel the results, the trickier it is.

hombre_fatal 2y ago
Use binary search and you can get that shower dialed in three moves.
- reaperman 2y ago
  More than 3 moves if the 0%-100% control range is a very narrow sub-range of the input range. i.e. 90% of the handle movement doesn't do anything at all. This is actually surprisingly common, often the full range of hot to cold happens between 5-15% of actuation or 85-95% of actuation.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
    Most European shower controls don't work this way anymore, they are thermostatic (i.e. you are just setting the desired water temperature, not directly adjusting the hot/cold balance). These are spreading to high-end US installs too.
    - imtringued 2y ago
      This is one of the weirdest things about showers. You set your shower temperature on the heater itself and then you pull the temperature handle all the way to the hottest temperature. There is no point in actually trying to dial in the temperature using the handle. Just don't. Btw. I'm talking about tankless heaters.

PicassoCTs 2y ago

But the market does not want to devalue the immo-coin by mining more coin. The market wants to pump and dump.

kubb 2y ago

> The law of supply and demand is like the Newton's laws of physics, it works. Do they teach this to you guys in school? Many people religiously believe it. Newtonian physics is a model approximating reality, but it breaks down if you analyze cases that can be safely ignored for many engineering purposes, like traveling at high speeds. Supply and demand are worse. They’re concepts approximating certain trends in economic outcomes that almost always break down in real world situations. For example: more supply can generate more demand. Demand can be inflexible with respect to supply. Supply and demand are unstable and can change unpredictably. In a monopoly situation price can be manipulated. Short term large supply can hamper long term. It’s weird that people try to explain the world with supply and demand as if everyone else was an idiot who doesn’t understand simple truths, while in reality they are the ones who don’t appreciate the complexity of things like urban development.

aimanbenbaha 2y ago
>For example: more supply can generate more demand. Demand can be inflexible with respect to supply. Supply and demand are unstable and can change unpredictably. In a monopoly situation price can be manipulated. Short term large supply can hamper long term. What you're describing here is jevon's paradox and it particularly works on unfulfilled markets with high price elasticity. Additionally the field of economics deals a lot of what you're describing in the contexts of monopolies/monopsonies. But as a general rule of thumb, if something has an inelastic demand (as in housing) the law of supply and demand will always be the guiding concept to explain the shortage and high prices.
- PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
  A law of supply and demand that applies only to something with inelastic demand (and housing is not a perfect example of such a thing) is very different than some universal law of economics, and even more different than any law of physics.
whatshisface 2y ago
All of the scenarios you're talking about are covered in economics 101. You're describing supply and demand with them. In supply and demand, you have these things called "supply curves," and "demand curves." The price is on the x axis, and the volume cleared in the marketplace is on the y axis. Changes in the situation move the curves around.

raverbashing 2y ago

And to be very honest, the problem in Spain is much lower than in other European countries (including the UK) and they keep building

mihaaly 2y ago

Property market in prime spots has to be regulated everywhere and is regulated everywhere including the (soon to be changing) freeest of the free country of US. Probably the real problem is the not enough regulation against investment focused property dealings when the population suffers with this essential (next to food, water, health) immediate and everyday human need. Those not letting the money do what it is for and not spend it but want to park it as long as possible drawing out increasing amount from the circulation laying dormant in property where it is not even not doing anything useful (but the fake value increase generated by parking itself) but suffocate the remaining part of society and economy sucking away money from other places dearly needed. Pulling back functional economy a lot. Law makers usually have high stakes in property ownership or are influenced very heavily by those with lots of wealth to be parked for the eternity and there are not enough regulations against speculative investments in this essential and everyday human need, distorting it, ruining it for the population really need it for its real purpose: shelter. Normally I'd say let people do what they want and after they drove the cities into ground with creating unlivable situations, take away its essence and charm and attractiveness as places where people live and strive then it will reborn on the ashes made by excessive tourism and investments, have a natural cycle of birth and death, but those could take several generations and we all live only a single one, it is difficult to watch the cities ruined by the greedy and the selfish while having a coffee with a 'this is fine' look.

jisnsm 2y ago

Not only is the supply side constrained; Spain has received over 2 million immigrants in the last five years who need housing and who tend to go live in the cities since that’s where jobs are.

thrance 2y ago

How's the free market working for you? Is rent cheaper on your side of the pond? Can you afford your medicine? I am tired of this zealotry toward free market absolutism, thougtlessly reciting econ 101's tenets as a mantra. Free stuff is good actually, some industries just work better and more efficiently as a centralized common: electricity, water, rail, healthcare... That's an empirical fact. I believe housing too could be on the list. There is more to the economy than rational agents systematically looking for what's best at the lowest prices and lawful entrepreneurs tirelessly striving to improve the utility of their customers.

dmix 2y ago
Housing is as regulated in American big cities as it is in Europe. That’s always been the critique in SF and NYC and elsewhere? Aggressive city planning, outdated unchanging zoning, backlogs, rapid growth of heritage building, NIMBY protectionism supported by municipal gov, extreme tenant laws disincentivizing renting half empty properties, etc etc. The only solutions they’ve tried are rent control and extremely slow gov investment in housing which have done nothing to help (rent control historically reduces supply making the problem worse). They’ve tried everything except liberalizing the market and letting people build. We don’t need to wait for huge gov spending programs to solve a problem when there’s already a mountain of capital waiting to build the second the gov lets them do it.
robocat 2y ago
> some industries just work better and more efficiently as a centralized common: electricity, water, rail, healthcare... That's an empirical fact. Not a fact. Easily demonstrated by falsification by examples of each of those where they have failed because of centralization. Infrastructure is deviously hard to get right. Edit: we can find examples of decentralized infrastructure that works great (internet, Apps, banking). Healthcare in particular must always fail because there's an unreasonably infinite cost for and ideal service. There's no good answer to what price (what resource limitations) we should put on fixing little Jimmy's cancer. Governments struggle to make compromises in healthcare, and plenty of citizens are super unhappy with any compromises made. Of course a free market can't fix that problem either. Disclosure: I'm not a free market zealot. Too many people want to define sides and then get idealist about "their side"; how tiresome. Perhaps you are similar to the free market zealots? > I believe housing too could be on the Be careful of what you wish for. Government housing is rarely brought out as an example of success? Maybe Singapore. "Too much government" is a common reason for housing (market) failure. Supply availability is mostly constrained by regulations. Demand is driven by desirability. House prices are driven by mortgage availability in developed countries. House unavailablity is often because of governmental choices over regulations and interest rates. Governments obviously mostly fail to get those right. What makes you believe a government can get socialised housing right? We don't have infinite resources. Neither government provided services nor free markets solve that. Anyone answering with either of those solutions is the same. You might find this article interesting: https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/08/30/libertarians-took-control-of-this-small-town-it-didnt-end-well/ https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/08/30/libertarians-took-c...

temp00345 2y ago

> The law of supply and demand is like the Newton's laws of physics, it works. Adam Smith was not aware of advertising. Suppliers can fabricate demand to manipulate the price. It's not a law, it's an assumption about human psychology and a wrong one. In the case of Barcelona, supply is limited due to the geography of the area (sea/mountain) and the inner city is already extremely dense.

freefaler 2y ago
> Suppliers can fabricate demand to manipulate the price. It's not a law, it's an assumption about human psychology and a wrong one. Really? Try selling pork sausages to Saudi market. There are many failed startups with huge marketing budgets failed, because there were not enough demand for their products.
- Mountain_Skies 2y ago
  Someone made a bunch of money a few years ago selling singing pickles. Doubt there was a sudden human need for singing pickles. Someone created that demand.
  - freefaler 2y ago
    If they made the choice by their own volition (even if it's influenced by the marketing) may be they had some need for entertainment or consumerism fulfilled by it? To disprove supply/demand means that no matter the price of the pickles the number of pickles sold wouldn't change.
- PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
  "There is no X in Y" is not a proof that "There is no X". The MIT Press had a book in the 90s called "Philosophies of Manufacture" that gathered together writings, pamphlets, letters and more that flowed around as the industrial revolution ramped up in the USA. It is filled with the actual industrialists and/or capitalists fretting about how there would not be enough demand for their products, and openly formulating plans to increase demand via new means (which today we would call advertising and marketing). This is not some idea flowing from progressive politics, it originates with the capital class itself.