4 ms·

We are in a period analogous to the end of the Dotcom bubble. The Internet is obviously going to change the world, but right now all it can do is pets.com, etoy

by ipnon 2y ago

We are in a period analogous to the end of the Dotcom bubble. The Internet is obviously going to change the world, but right now all it can do is pets.com, etoys.com, kozmo.com. People are out of work, and those with other alternatives or preferences will leave the tech industry. In 10 years entire new platforms and modes will exist that generate even more opportunities than before. Some variation of this wave has been surfed up and down since the invention and industrialization of computation.

NeverFade 2y ago
The internet created vast new opportunities for software engineers to create value. Generative AI is about replacing software engineers in creating that value. These are very different things.
- aorloff 2y ago
  Software engineers also create value by recognizing opportunity.
  - ty6853 2y ago
    Opportunity: you can buy $1500 in shingles, put them on someone's roof yourself in 4 days, and clear $5000 profit -- somewhere where rents/mortgage are under $1500 a month and a nice restaurant meal for two is under $50. It's rapidly looking like nerding out while pining for the old days where engineering knowledge and education was valuable is maladaptive. The sunk cost fallacy can be real.
  - yolovoe 2y ago
    You can replace software engineers with anything else here. Most VPs and higher leadership I see at FAANGs (who're arguably the ones recognizing opportunity) come from a PM or other non-software background. As much as I'd like to believe we're special, it doesn't seem like we are any special. We have no protection. It's best to start hedging and learning other skills. Or focus on making as much money as possible ASAP so you have some financial safety net to fall back to as AI and Trump/Musk and offshoring has increased in recent years. All of us need an escape plan ready. I don't mean to spread FUD. Just hedge please. I assume I have at most a decade of tech career left in the best case. A couple years in the worst case.
PessimalDecimal 2y ago
If the analogy is LLMs are today's equivalent of the web, I'm skeptical. Internet-based communication replaced technology like telephones and fax machines for synchronous and asynchronous telecommunication. People like and need to talk to other people. It was clearly valuable from day 1. What is the equivalent value proposition for LLMs? They make for really cool and splashy demos. But practical usage doesn't seem to keep pace with the hype. Why is it such a safe assumption that this is just like the invention of the Internet (or, as Sundar Pichai put it, the invention of fire)?
- AlexCoventry 2y ago
  It seems to me that I can research and study much faster as a result of using ChatGPT's Deep Research, FWIW.
  - scarface_74 2y ago
    Only for information available on the Internet…
    - yolovoe 2y ago
      Which is most information...
      - scarface_74 2y ago
        Do you think all of the industry expertise for niche markets is published on the internet for free? Why would any company do that?
      - nradov 2y ago
        That really depends on the domain. In fields like manufacturing, resources extraction, and pharmaceuticals most of the valuable information is locked behind corporate firewalls.
        thaumasiotes 2y ago
Aurornis 2y ago
> We are in a period analogous to the end of the Dotcom bubble. The Internet is obviously going to change the world, but right now all it can do is pets.com, etoys.com, kozmo.com It certainly feels this way if your only perspective on the tech industry comes from headlines and social media. Step outside of the doomerism whirlwind that is internet headlines and it's a very different story. There are a lot of companies doing great things and delivering products that people use, but they don't make for catchy headlines. So you don't hear about them.
- whattheheckheck 2y ago
  Where do you hear about them
  - yndoendo 2y ago
    One barrier in communication is that developers are not the ones able to post for jobs. I would love to have another coworker in software development. I have no say in hiring. Even a QA with a software development background would be gold. The automation industry with physical products interaction is where my labor shortage lives. I will be requesting support this year. Software development is about solutions and all industry pivots have a learning curve.
  - bitwize 2y ago
    Hackernews. Check the monthly "Who's hiring?" and "Who wants to be hired?" threads. Posting on the latter is how I landed my current job.
    - throwaway_1more 2y ago
      I got some great opportunities from that post but lately, it has been a nothing burger. I have been without a job for nearly a year and have applied to many positions on that thread with just one reply and that fizzled out despite being objectively qualified (a take home assignment, successfully completed within the allotted time of 24 hours).
    - 2y ago
ty6853 2y ago
Except now orders more magnitude of internet connected high knowledge third worlders are not only chomping at the bit for these jobs but qualified for them, and remote work is now largely accepted. The final phase of this is where Americans start moving to some hut in the Congo to survive off the market wages offered when the supply side of the supply/demand curve blows up.

by ipnon 2y ago

NeverFade 2y ago

The internet created vast new opportunities for software engineers to create value. Generative AI is about replacing software engineers in creating that value. These are very different things.

aorloff 2y ago
Software engineers also create value by recognizing opportunity.
- ty6853 2y ago
  Opportunity: you can buy $1500 in shingles, put them on someone's roof yourself in 4 days, and clear $5000 profit -- somewhere where rents/mortgage are under $1500 a month and a nice restaurant meal for two is under $50. It's rapidly looking like nerding out while pining for the old days where engineering knowledge and education was valuable is maladaptive. The sunk cost fallacy can be real.
- yolovoe 2y ago
  You can replace software engineers with anything else here. Most VPs and higher leadership I see at FAANGs (who're arguably the ones recognizing opportunity) come from a PM or other non-software background. As much as I'd like to believe we're special, it doesn't seem like we are any special. We have no protection. It's best to start hedging and learning other skills. Or focus on making as much money as possible ASAP so you have some financial safety net to fall back to as AI and Trump/Musk and offshoring has increased in recent years. All of us need an escape plan ready. I don't mean to spread FUD. Just hedge please. I assume I have at most a decade of tech career left in the best case. A couple years in the worst case.

PessimalDecimal 2y ago

If the analogy is LLMs are today's equivalent of the web, I'm skeptical. Internet-based communication replaced technology like telephones and fax machines for synchronous and asynchronous telecommunication. People like and need to talk to other people. It was clearly valuable from day 1. What is the equivalent value proposition for LLMs? They make for really cool and splashy demos. But practical usage doesn't seem to keep pace with the hype. Why is it such a safe assumption that this is just like the invention of the Internet (or, as Sundar Pichai put it, the invention of fire)?

AlexCoventry 2y ago
It seems to me that I can research and study much faster as a result of using ChatGPT's Deep Research, FWIW.
- scarface_74 2y ago
  Only for information available on the Internet…
  - yolovoe 2y ago
    Which is most information...
    - scarface_74 2y ago
      Do you think all of the industry expertise for niche markets is published on the internet for free? Why would any company do that?
    - nradov 2y ago
      That really depends on the domain. In fields like manufacturing, resources extraction, and pharmaceuticals most of the valuable information is locked behind corporate firewalls.
      - thaumasiotes 2y ago

Aurornis 2y ago

> We are in a period analogous to the end of the Dotcom bubble. The Internet is obviously going to change the world, but right now all it can do is pets.com, etoys.com, kozmo.com It certainly feels this way if your only perspective on the tech industry comes from headlines and social media. Step outside of the doomerism whirlwind that is internet headlines and it's a very different story. There are a lot of companies doing great things and delivering products that people use, but they don't make for catchy headlines. So you don't hear about them.

whattheheckheck 2y ago
Where do you hear about them
- yndoendo 2y ago
  One barrier in communication is that developers are not the ones able to post for jobs. I would love to have another coworker in software development. I have no say in hiring. Even a QA with a software development background would be gold. The automation industry with physical products interaction is where my labor shortage lives. I will be requesting support this year. Software development is about solutions and all industry pivots have a learning curve.
- bitwize 2y ago
  Hackernews. Check the monthly "Who's hiring?" and "Who wants to be hired?" threads. Posting on the latter is how I landed my current job.
  - throwaway_1more 2y ago
    I got some great opportunities from that post but lately, it has been a nothing burger. I have been without a job for nearly a year and have applied to many positions on that thread with just one reply and that fizzled out despite being objectively qualified (a take home assignment, successfully completed within the allotted time of 24 hours).
  - 2y ago

ty6853 2y ago

Except now orders more magnitude of internet connected high knowledge third worlders are not only chomping at the bit for these jobs but qualified for them, and remote work is now largely accepted. The final phase of this is where Americans start moving to some hut in the Congo to survive off the market wages offered when the supply side of the supply/demand curve blows up.