7 ms·

Five years of Brexit reshaped Britain

28 points by belter 2y ago

hnhg 2y ago
https://archive.is/xpale https://archive.is/xpale
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
geremiiah 2y ago
This is not a pro-Brexit opinion, but it is also interesting how much of the worst prophesies did not happen. Tech business in particular mostly stayed in the UK and London is still the best place to be within the European geographical region. And London is still the financial capital. Very little moved to Paris and Frankfurt. Indeed London is still a very attractive place for EU skilled labour despite the added friction.
- onemoresoop 2y ago
  Is it really?
  - Reubachi 2y ago
    C'mn, contribute a little more to the thought/conversation/retort. Do you feel differently?Are you baiting some reponse for sake of proving a point?
- t43562 2y ago
  I was listening to some report about the economic effects which said that the economic impact of increased immigration had somewhat offset the negative impact s of Brexit :-) As for finance, it seems a complicated area. Some UK companies seem to list on the NYSE now which is a reminder that when we lose things they don't only have to be lost to the EU.
  - disgruntledphd2 2y ago
    To be fair, basically every large EU company appears to be moving towards a US listing, as the pool of capital available is much, much larger.
    - t43562 2y ago
      Brexit probably helped that though. ie. the net effect of Brexit might have weakened both Britain AND the EU
      - disgruntledphd2 2y ago
        Yeah, there's definitely a world where all EU/European businesses centralised in London. Honestly though, short term national interests have stopped that happening for 30 years now, so I don't expect any changes here (even though it's probably the best thing the EU/Europe could do to help more new tech businesses get off the ground).
- disgruntledphd2 2y ago
  > but it is also interesting how much of the worst prophesies did not happen. So, I think the real issue was the new investments (net FDI fell off a cliff for years after the vote). Generally companies won't move unless forced to, but new companies generally seemed to avoid the UK post Brexit. In fact, Ireland benefited from a bunch of this, I worked for 1-2 companies who'd moved their headquarters and staff from the UK to IE because they needed an EU base. > Indeed London is still a very attractive place for EU skilled labour despite the added friction. Honestly, not unless you work in finance. I was offered a Big tech role in London a few years back, and it was basically my euro salary converted into pounds, so it didn't make any financial sense for me to move (which is easy because I'm an Irish citizen).
  - krona 2y ago
    > net FDI fell off a cliff for years after the vote I don't know what stats you're looking at. As a percentage of market share the UK is essentially where it was in 2017 and inline with historical trends. Moreover it has been recently increasing largely due to poor conditions in Germany. https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2024/07/foreign-direct-investment-in-uk-grows-as-europe-declines https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2024/07/foreign-direct-inv...
    - disgruntledphd2 2y ago
      The ONS appears to disagree: https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessinnovation/datasets/foreigndirectinvestmentinvolvingukcompanies2013inwardtables https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/bus... You'll need to download the XLS file but it definitely seems to show substantial declines since 2016 (post Brexit vote). That being said, the numbers are so large that I'm concerned I'm misinterpeting something. My original comment was based on something reported in the FT recently, though I find myself unable to find the article itself.
      - disgruntledphd2 2y ago
        Actually, looking at more of the sheets I'm coming to the conclusion that I don't understand how they're measuring things here, so I dunno what's going on honestly.
- adamm255 2y ago
  Before Brexit I knew tech companies where they had a UK EMEA HQ, where they would have people looking after all regions, with people living and paying tax in the UK. Post Brexit, so many people started moving home, companies started opening more local offices in region. So the people who would have been on high wages paying high tax here, sending in the UK, are not back in their home country. Great for their home country, bad for the UK.
- ajoseps 2y ago
  Is London still a financial capital? LSE has had more delisting than listings in the last 5 years
  - scrlk 2y ago
    Not in equities (the LSE is basically on life support), but still doing well in areas such as FX, insurance and clearing.
  - Gupta2 2y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Financial_Centres_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Financial_Centres_Index London is #2 Nearest EU is at #10
  - mytailorisrich 2y ago
    London is still one of the two financial capitals of the world (the other one being NY). In finance no-one left London after Brexit, at most they shifted the legal minimum into the EU as required and not more.
- greatpatton 2y ago
  5 years ago, the value of companies listed on the LSE was 2 times the size of Paris. Now they are almost equal (Paris was first in 2023). In 2024 only 18 IPO took place on the LSE, the lowest number in the last 20 years. London is still the major place for financial services but other European center are growing faster.
  - blibble 2y ago
    the LSE is a single market in a set of thousands it's an insignificant fraction of financial services London provides and certainly not significant data point to measure the EU against London
    - jodrellblank 2y ago
      Wikipedia's "List of major stock exchanges"[1] has 19 exchanges, not 'thousands', and the LSE is the 11th. How is that not a significant data point? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_stock_exchanges https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_stock_exchanges (Nasdaq Nordic and Baltic are presented combined into one valuation)
      - blibble 2y ago
        there are more financial markets that stock exchanges exchange traded equities are a minority of trading (probably not even 1%)
- FinnLobsien 2y ago
  I think there's a few things here: a) Having English be the national language is a massive advantage which only Ireland shares (and Ireland has plenty of American tech outposts). That's an advantage people don't mention often. b) The EU keeps adding regulations, which make it a less attractive place to invest. The UK seems to copy each of these regulations though, which maybe makes this a moot point. But I think ultimately, it's probably down to network effects. The same way Twitter/X stuck around even though basically everything about it changed, cities might do the same.
  - t43562 2y ago
    Inertia can be overcome - some random situation might do it and then the pull the other way would be unstoppable.
    - FinnLobsien 2y ago
      Sure, but usually inertia doesn't get undone by some incrementally different alternative, but by something qualitatively different. The UK and EU have roughly similar problems, benefits, infrastructure and regulatory environments. If there was a Singapore-like city state off of the coast of France, I'm sure things would look different.
  - Gupta2 2y ago
    > The UK seems to copy each of these regulations though, which maybe makes this a moot point. Which new EU regulation since Brexit has UK copied into law?
    - FinnLobsien 2y ago
      This year, the UK has both an "online safety law" (EU analog: DSA) and a digital market regulation (EU analog: DMA) coming.
      - Gupta2 2y ago
        Ah thought you meant Brexit agreement compelled UK to copy new EU laws. UK politicians (both Conservative and Labour) love to look around world to copy any regulation targetting business, especially ones targetting tech and online censorship, not far off actual copying China's great firewall...
- LatteLazy 2y ago
  The Brexit the UK ended up with was pretty might the lightest possible Brexit. This is exactly because anyone in power rapidly understood anything else would be a huge disaster. It was interesting watching a succession of "leaders" scream that they would deliver true Brexit, be given power, and then lose their nerve only to be replaced by the next "true" brexiteer. The result is we suffered only 10% of the maximum damage in exchange for 0% of the "advantages" (can't sign our own trade deals, no say in the EU, must take rules, last in queue for access etc). I think this is actually the worst outcome long term: a car crash hard Brexit would have all but assured reentry in the long term. Instead we will be in Europe for all practical purposes but dragging our feet at the back...
  - blibble 2y ago
    > The Brexit the UK ended up with was pretty might the lightest possible Brexit. this is not true in the slightest, we had the 2nd hardest exit possible a possible outcome could have been that we left the EU and remained in the EU single market and EU customs union there's this rather famous EU commission slide of the various options the UK could take: https://i.kinja-img.com/image/upload/c_fit,q_60,w_1315/adf2f5833b120a838d0059c0abfbb700.jpg https://i.kinja-img.com/image/upload/c_fit,q_60,w_1315/adf2f... with integration decreasing as you move right (the "brexit hardness") we ended up with the Canada option, the only harder option would have been to drop out without a signed deal (which thankfully didn't happen)
- Havoc 2y ago
  >Very little moved to Paris and Frankfurt. The predicted overnight exodus didn't happen, but I'm certainly seeing a slow bleed out happening. We've had attrition on London headcount & all the replacements are in EU.
yzydserd 2y ago
The article seems to hyperlink to a 2020 poll of polls for what people are “now saying”. Here is a current poll. “11% of Britons say Brexit has been a success, with more Leavers saying it has gone badly than well” https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51484-how-do-britons-feel-about-brexit-five-years-on https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51484-how-do-britons-...
- OJFord 2y ago
  The question you're using the answer from is: > And so far, do you think that Brexit has been more of a success or more of a failure? % With 62% saying failure (the rest are don't know/neither). Note that only 55% say it was wrong to leave, and on such a close referendum anyway I'm not even sure that's a statistically significant different answer than in 2016. Key point: you can think it hasn't gone well (managed poorly, opportunities no taken, whatever) without thinking it was wrong, or even that in hindsight being in the EU is better. (You can also have voted to remain, but now want to make the best of it, and think it's going well/badly - it's completely independent.)
  - IshKebab 2y ago
    > Note that only 55% say it was wrong to leave, and on such a close referendum anyway I'm not even sure that's a statistically significant different answer than in 2016. Conveniently ignoring that only 30% say we were right to leave. Nice try.
    - OJFord 2y ago
      I'm not trying anything, I don't care. I was comparing the 'failure' to 'wrong' figures; yes you can also compare 'right' if you want. You can also compare many other figures that I don't think you are 'conveniently ignoring', it's just if you want everything you can go and read the linked survey results.
  - callamdelaney 2y ago
    The tories completely butchered it. They've done the opposite of what should have been done in terms of making brexit pay, and now we're in an absolute mess.
Gys 2y ago
> Five years after the UK left the European Union on 31 January 2020 That is only four years… Proofread by LLM I guess.
- mechagodzilla 2y ago
  It's currently 2025 . . . 2020 was five years ago.
  - jrpelkonen 2y ago
    Maybe it’s an off-by-one error. Those are pretty common, you know.
- OJFord 2y ago
  Today is 31 January 2025 buddy
- 00kevn 2y ago
  Today, January 31, 2025 is 5 years after January 31, 2020… Is the article saying something different? It’s paywalled
- cmcconomy 2y ago
  are you a time traveller from 2024?
- Gys 2y ago
  O dear, cannot edit anymore, but misread as 31 december… Should not comment when sick at home…
another2another 2y ago
I'd have to say that when the UK initially joined the EU most people probably didn't notice much of a difference, except that the euro made going on holiday and using the local currency a lot easier (I still remember the Lira in Italy being particularly difficult to get my head around). But otherwise it didn't make much of a difference in day-to-day life for most. But now, leaving seems to be like constantly picking at a festering scab.
- t43562 2y ago
  It's like removing a particular dependency that you thought would be simple and it turns out to have been useful all over the place in ways that one person alone doesn't remember off the top of their head. Then you start realising that the fab new modules you were thinking of using have all sorts of missing features and limitations and now your performance has dropped x% and memory usage went up instead of down. ...but you put the old module on the banned list and can't take the hit to your credibility of admitting that it wasn't as bad as the alternatives.
- OJFord 2y ago
  > But now, leaving seems to be like constantly picking at a festering scab. Does it? I feel similarly to your description of joining about it: maybe I can't join an EU line (more often I now join an EU + UK + ... line, so it's only a signing quirk) and my passport is a different colour, but otherwise it hasn't made a difference day-to-day.. at all? Maybe if I was an international lorry driver or something?
  - greatpatton 2y ago
    EU + UK line are going to disappear when the new EU passport check (ESS) and electronic travel authorization (euphemism introduced by the US to call a visa) will come into force. And now that EU citizen have to do the same for UK it will to just transform a quick Eurostar travel in a big headache.
    - johneth 2y ago
      You've always needed to go through passport control on Eurostar.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
simonjgreen 2y ago
An area I don’t see much discussion on is the double whammy impact of Brexit AND Covid. Both have permanently reshaped live in UK and both landed within months of each other.
- janice1999 2y ago
  > both landed within months of each other. The Brexit vote was June 2016. The withdrawal agreement was first drafted in 2018. The business impact was being felt for years before Covid as uncertainty and confusion affected investment.
- Havoc 2y ago
  Not just covid, but also the huge cash printing at the time. The average person on the street saw very little of that. In the UK it has basically been a massive injection of inequality.
  - orwin 2y ago
    Yeah, the issue is how the cash was spent, who it was given to. I'd rather have money printing be used for long-term investments, all things being equal. But if it can be done, I'd rather inject it in the real economy rather than in the stock market and second-hand real estate. Multiple things could have been done to do that. Rent freeze + automatic social security payments (rather than paying the business, you pay the now inactive employees until the economy starts again) would have been great.
  - Zenst 2y ago
    Exactly- trickle-down economics does not work, it's trickle-up that was the overlooked and needed solution. Universal basic income, known as UBI is one tool to enable this. Removed inequality and equally, restores dignity and makes benefits and the lambasting and disdain of those in that position a thing of the past.
- michh 2y ago
  Sure, but every country was affected by Covid. Not always to a similar degree as Britain but the differences in Europe in that regard aren't so big. Most handled it similarly, saw similar infection rates and are seeing similar long-term consequences. Just like we were all affected by cheap Russian gas disappearing. I think you can safely cancel out Covid and Putin when comparing the way living standards and cost of living have changed over the last decade between the UK and countries like France, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, Italy, etc.
ksec 2y ago
>Countries usually strike trade deals to reduce border bureaucracy, but the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement did the reverse, restoring the customs requirements that had disappeared with the advent of the EU single market. Nothing was done in this regard. Frankly speaking the government thought the border check was good. And both UK and EU and each individual countries customs have very different views of the rules. >Starmer’s negotiations with the EU could reduce friction for some individual sectors, such as food and drink exporters, if Labour makes good on its promise to strike a veterinary agreement with Brussels. Only agriculture sector, not Food and Drink which often implies something else. >smaller companies had less capacity to deal with “the deluge” of new bureaucracy, while larger businesses had the money and staff to adapt. I can assure you even large businesses took very long time and still failed to adapt. We can all argue about whether Brexit was right or wrong on politics. But there isn't a single shred of doubt post Brexit handling was absolutely appalling.
- CraigJPerry 2y ago
  >> But there isn't a single shred of doubt post Brexit handling was absolutely appalling That’s not the bit that confuses me, the bit that I’ve never had a satisfying answer to is why would anyone have believed anything else might be possible? If the task was akin to extracting your eggs from a baked cake, then which personalities looked up to the job in 2016?
  - ksec 2y ago
    It is the basic like trading agreement, customs and border checks, simple things that you do when you trade. The problem is absolutely no one inside the government, politicians or civil servant has any idea about trading. This makes drafting any decent, workable agreement and procedure near impossible. And that is ignoring all the politics involves, both internal and external. Having said that, all that expectation may be a tall order. I have known little to zero government that actually execute well. Singapore being perhaps the only one. US Government does well comparatively speaking, partly because they are well paid, only let down are the politics.
    - 2y ago
roenxi 2y ago
I keep an eye on OurWorldInData's Energy [0] and GDP [1] per capita graphs. They suggest that the UK is moving roughly in step with the other western-Europe powers and have been in a state of crisis since around 2005. It matches up well with the growing political instability that seems to be coming to a head all through Europe, there are a surprising number of people who refuse to accept that >33% drop in energy use (& trending) is a problem. I'd speculate that Brexit was actually a response to an energy crisis slowly eroding living standards and people are getting more antsy when it turns out that it didn't lead to saner energy policy than the EU mainland. I remain glad that I'm closer to China who, for all her faults, at least has the whole energy-and-prosperity link under control. I wish my civilisation would re-learn that one. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab=chart&country=GBR~DEU~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab... [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=line&country=DEU~GBR~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?...
- hnhg 2y ago
  You make good points, thanks for sharing. May I also add onto your speculation by saying that Brexit was a symptom of bad governance in general, and the energy crisis is a symptom too.
- Havoc 2y ago
  I'd be a bit wary of using energy use that directly as indicator. Yes, it is a broad measure of industrialization, however: Suppose a country goes on a broad national campaign to insulate drafty houses. That drops energy use, but has no corresponding drop in living standard. i.e. there is some sort of measure/factor for efficient application of energy needed for it to really be meaningful
  - roenxi 2y ago
    Run me through your numbers. Where did the 33% drop in per-capita energy use come from? What order of magnitude do you think is draft reductions? Because if that were true I'd expect the UK would be a world-leading paradise with vast energy surpluses and everyone having a high old time in great comfort. That isn't the vibe they're giving off. They look like a nation with a slow-rolling energy crisis and a social contract that is coming under quite a bit of pressure because of it. Happy people don't vote for Nigel Farage.
A_D_E_P_T 2y ago
It was a good idea in principle. It was a reaction to regulatory over-reach by unelected officials on the continent, which even those officials acknowledged at the time: https://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-says-eu-interferes-too-much/ https://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-says-eu-... Yet I don't think that anybody can argue that it was handled well. It was handled abysmally poorly. - The regulatory burden on individuals and small businesses has increased quite dramatically since Brexit. New customs declarations, VAT rules, compliance checks, etc. - Transit of goods to and from EU states is now many times more difficult than it was, and a lot of European firms simply don't want to ship to the UK any longer. - Temporary skilled immigration from places like Poland and Romania has been replaced by permanent and largely unskilled immigration from places like Pakistan. En masse. Much to the consternation of Brexit voters, who have, for the most part, simply become anti-status-quo voters. The impression I get is that the UK political establishment reclaimed some control over its laws, regulations, and borders -- and proceeded to spite the populace with them. Maybe they wanted revenge for being forced into a Brexit they didn't want to go through with. "We'll give it to 'em, good and hard."
- pavlov 2y ago
  You sound like those old-school communists who insist that it's a very good idea in principle, but the proletariat has always been betrayed by leaders who didn't have enough faith.
- greatpatton 2y ago
  Referring to 'unelected officials' highlights a misunderstanding of how the EU operates and getting really tiring. They are named like most executive of other countries and confirmed by the EU parliament. The French prime minister is even more an unelected official than a EU commmissioner.
  - A_D_E_P_T 2y ago
    In the US, executive branch functionaries don't get to propose legislation, and even their ability to interpret rules has recently been constrained. The EU commission consists of appointed bureaucrats, and one's national representatives in the EU commission and the EU parliament are always -- by definition -- a minority. I think that the UK's old share was something like 9%, which was not nearly enough to pass or block legislation without a lot of outside assistance. Simply put, there was no way for a voter in the UK to meaningfully affect EU regulations. There was -- and still is -- essentially zero democratic influence at the member-state level.
a_c 2y ago
They have only realised the leaving part. They haven’t committed to the being a better European country part. Regulations, tax, government spending, immigration are no better than leaving the EU. They have so much potential if the Tory didn’t waste effort in fighting for status. Liz truss was right in bringing down government spending and lowering tax, Suella Braverman was right about immigration. Boris Johnson was right about abolishing EU regulations. Now everything is even worse, more tax, no cap illegal immigration, more government debt. But people instead blame the brexit.
- FinnLobsien 2y ago
  I've always wondered this about how Brexit went. However you feel about the way the EU and member states are currently run, it's odd to make such a big deal about leaving and then copy everything about the EU. Feels like you're just creating an EU country with less freedom of movement and free trade.
jaggs 2y ago
These threads are usually overcome by shills, AI or people who live nowhere near the UK. It gets really boring after a while.
sys_64738 2y ago
Britain got what they voted for in the referendum and that's to be outside of it. It's permanent and 100% legally binding with no going back. It's pointless trying to compare the tranquil and prosperous days of EU membership with the bum deal they have today. Totally pointless.
- Anonbrit 2y ago
  There's absolutely nothing (other than internal politics) to stop Britain from asking to rejoin the EU, just like any other country. They'd lose a bunch of the perks they had from being a founding member, but countries joining the EU is a well known process

28 points by belter 2y ago

hnhg 2y ago

https://archive.is/xpale https://archive.is/xpale

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

geremiiah 2y ago

This is not a pro-Brexit opinion, but it is also interesting how much of the worst prophesies did not happen. Tech business in particular mostly stayed in the UK and London is still the best place to be within the European geographical region. And London is still the financial capital. Very little moved to Paris and Frankfurt. Indeed London is still a very attractive place for EU skilled labour despite the added friction.

onemoresoop 2y ago
Is it really?
- Reubachi 2y ago
  C'mn, contribute a little more to the thought/conversation/retort. Do you feel differently?Are you baiting some reponse for sake of proving a point?
t43562 2y ago
I was listening to some report about the economic effects which said that the economic impact of increased immigration had somewhat offset the negative impact s of Brexit :-) As for finance, it seems a complicated area. Some UK companies seem to list on the NYSE now which is a reminder that when we lose things they don't only have to be lost to the EU.
- disgruntledphd2 2y ago
  To be fair, basically every large EU company appears to be moving towards a US listing, as the pool of capital available is much, much larger.
  - t43562 2y ago
    Brexit probably helped that though. ie. the net effect of Brexit might have weakened both Britain AND the EU
    - disgruntledphd2 2y ago
      Yeah, there's definitely a world where all EU/European businesses centralised in London. Honestly though, short term national interests have stopped that happening for 30 years now, so I don't expect any changes here (even though it's probably the best thing the EU/Europe could do to help more new tech businesses get off the ground).
disgruntledphd2 2y ago
> but it is also interesting how much of the worst prophesies did not happen. So, I think the real issue was the new investments (net FDI fell off a cliff for years after the vote). Generally companies won't move unless forced to, but new companies generally seemed to avoid the UK post Brexit. In fact, Ireland benefited from a bunch of this, I worked for 1-2 companies who'd moved their headquarters and staff from the UK to IE because they needed an EU base. > Indeed London is still a very attractive place for EU skilled labour despite the added friction. Honestly, not unless you work in finance. I was offered a Big tech role in London a few years back, and it was basically my euro salary converted into pounds, so it didn't make any financial sense for me to move (which is easy because I'm an Irish citizen).
- krona 2y ago
  > net FDI fell off a cliff for years after the vote I don't know what stats you're looking at. As a percentage of market share the UK is essentially where it was in 2017 and inline with historical trends. Moreover it has been recently increasing largely due to poor conditions in Germany. https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2024/07/foreign-direct-investment-in-uk-grows-as-europe-declines https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2024/07/foreign-direct-inv...
  - disgruntledphd2 2y ago
    The ONS appears to disagree: https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessinnovation/datasets/foreigndirectinvestmentinvolvingukcompanies2013inwardtables https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/bus... You'll need to download the XLS file but it definitely seems to show substantial declines since 2016 (post Brexit vote). That being said, the numbers are so large that I'm concerned I'm misinterpeting something. My original comment was based on something reported in the FT recently, though I find myself unable to find the article itself.
    - disgruntledphd2 2y ago
      Actually, looking at more of the sheets I'm coming to the conclusion that I don't understand how they're measuring things here, so I dunno what's going on honestly.
adamm255 2y ago
Before Brexit I knew tech companies where they had a UK EMEA HQ, where they would have people looking after all regions, with people living and paying tax in the UK. Post Brexit, so many people started moving home, companies started opening more local offices in region. So the people who would have been on high wages paying high tax here, sending in the UK, are not back in their home country. Great for their home country, bad for the UK.
ajoseps 2y ago
Is London still a financial capital? LSE has had more delisting than listings in the last 5 years
- scrlk 2y ago
  Not in equities (the LSE is basically on life support), but still doing well in areas such as FX, insurance and clearing.
- Gupta2 2y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Financial_Centres_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Financial_Centres_Index London is #2 Nearest EU is at #10
- mytailorisrich 2y ago
  London is still one of the two financial capitals of the world (the other one being NY). In finance no-one left London after Brexit, at most they shifted the legal minimum into the EU as required and not more.
greatpatton 2y ago
5 years ago, the value of companies listed on the LSE was 2 times the size of Paris. Now they are almost equal (Paris was first in 2023). In 2024 only 18 IPO took place on the LSE, the lowest number in the last 20 years. London is still the major place for financial services but other European center are growing faster.
- blibble 2y ago
  the LSE is a single market in a set of thousands it's an insignificant fraction of financial services London provides and certainly not significant data point to measure the EU against London
  - jodrellblank 2y ago
    Wikipedia's "List of major stock exchanges"[1] has 19 exchanges, not 'thousands', and the LSE is the 11th. How is that not a significant data point? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_stock_exchanges https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_stock_exchanges (Nasdaq Nordic and Baltic are presented combined into one valuation)
    - blibble 2y ago
      there are more financial markets that stock exchanges exchange traded equities are a minority of trading (probably not even 1%)
FinnLobsien 2y ago
I think there's a few things here: a) Having English be the national language is a massive advantage which only Ireland shares (and Ireland has plenty of American tech outposts). That's an advantage people don't mention often. b) The EU keeps adding regulations, which make it a less attractive place to invest. The UK seems to copy each of these regulations though, which maybe makes this a moot point. But I think ultimately, it's probably down to network effects. The same way Twitter/X stuck around even though basically everything about it changed, cities might do the same.
- t43562 2y ago
  Inertia can be overcome - some random situation might do it and then the pull the other way would be unstoppable.
  - FinnLobsien 2y ago
    Sure, but usually inertia doesn't get undone by some incrementally different alternative, but by something qualitatively different. The UK and EU have roughly similar problems, benefits, infrastructure and regulatory environments. If there was a Singapore-like city state off of the coast of France, I'm sure things would look different.
- Gupta2 2y ago
  > The UK seems to copy each of these regulations though, which maybe makes this a moot point. Which new EU regulation since Brexit has UK copied into law?
  - FinnLobsien 2y ago
    This year, the UK has both an "online safety law" (EU analog: DSA) and a digital market regulation (EU analog: DMA) coming.
    - Gupta2 2y ago
      Ah thought you meant Brexit agreement compelled UK to copy new EU laws. UK politicians (both Conservative and Labour) love to look around world to copy any regulation targetting business, especially ones targetting tech and online censorship, not far off actual copying China's great firewall...
LatteLazy 2y ago
The Brexit the UK ended up with was pretty might the lightest possible Brexit. This is exactly because anyone in power rapidly understood anything else would be a huge disaster. It was interesting watching a succession of "leaders" scream that they would deliver true Brexit, be given power, and then lose their nerve only to be replaced by the next "true" brexiteer. The result is we suffered only 10% of the maximum damage in exchange for 0% of the "advantages" (can't sign our own trade deals, no say in the EU, must take rules, last in queue for access etc). I think this is actually the worst outcome long term: a car crash hard Brexit would have all but assured reentry in the long term. Instead we will be in Europe for all practical purposes but dragging our feet at the back...
- blibble 2y ago
  > The Brexit the UK ended up with was pretty might the lightest possible Brexit. this is not true in the slightest, we had the 2nd hardest exit possible a possible outcome could have been that we left the EU and remained in the EU single market and EU customs union there's this rather famous EU commission slide of the various options the UK could take: https://i.kinja-img.com/image/upload/c_fit,q_60,w_1315/adf2f5833b120a838d0059c0abfbb700.jpg https://i.kinja-img.com/image/upload/c_fit,q_60,w_1315/adf2f... with integration decreasing as you move right (the "brexit hardness") we ended up with the Canada option, the only harder option would have been to drop out without a signed deal (which thankfully didn't happen)
Havoc 2y ago
>Very little moved to Paris and Frankfurt. The predicted overnight exodus didn't happen, but I'm certainly seeing a slow bleed out happening. We've had attrition on London headcount & all the replacements are in EU.

yzydserd 2y ago

The article seems to hyperlink to a 2020 poll of polls for what people are “now saying”. Here is a current poll. “11% of Britons say Brexit has been a success, with more Leavers saying it has gone badly than well” https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51484-how-do-britons-feel-about-brexit-five-years-on https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51484-how-do-britons-...

OJFord 2y ago
The question you're using the answer from is: > And so far, do you think that Brexit has been more of a success or more of a failure? % With 62% saying failure (the rest are don't know/neither). Note that only 55% say it was wrong to leave, and on such a close referendum anyway I'm not even sure that's a statistically significant different answer than in 2016. Key point: you can think it hasn't gone well (managed poorly, opportunities no taken, whatever) without thinking it was wrong, or even that in hindsight being in the EU is better. (You can also have voted to remain, but now want to make the best of it, and think it's going well/badly - it's completely independent.)
- IshKebab 2y ago
  > Note that only 55% say it was wrong to leave, and on such a close referendum anyway I'm not even sure that's a statistically significant different answer than in 2016. Conveniently ignoring that only 30% say we were right to leave. Nice try.
  - OJFord 2y ago
    I'm not trying anything, I don't care. I was comparing the 'failure' to 'wrong' figures; yes you can also compare 'right' if you want. You can also compare many other figures that I don't think you are 'conveniently ignoring', it's just if you want everything you can go and read the linked survey results.
- callamdelaney 2y ago
  The tories completely butchered it. They've done the opposite of what should have been done in terms of making brexit pay, and now we're in an absolute mess.

Gys 2y ago

> Five years after the UK left the European Union on 31 January 2020 That is only four years… Proofread by LLM I guess.

mechagodzilla 2y ago
It's currently 2025 . . . 2020 was five years ago.
- jrpelkonen 2y ago
  Maybe it’s an off-by-one error. Those are pretty common, you know.
OJFord 2y ago
Today is 31 January 2025 buddy
00kevn 2y ago
Today, January 31, 2025 is 5 years after January 31, 2020… Is the article saying something different? It’s paywalled
cmcconomy 2y ago
are you a time traveller from 2024?
Gys 2y ago
O dear, cannot edit anymore, but misread as 31 december… Should not comment when sick at home…

another2another 2y ago

I'd have to say that when the UK initially joined the EU most people probably didn't notice much of a difference, except that the euro made going on holiday and using the local currency a lot easier (I still remember the Lira in Italy being particularly difficult to get my head around). But otherwise it didn't make much of a difference in day-to-day life for most. But now, leaving seems to be like constantly picking at a festering scab.

t43562 2y ago
It's like removing a particular dependency that you thought would be simple and it turns out to have been useful all over the place in ways that one person alone doesn't remember off the top of their head. Then you start realising that the fab new modules you were thinking of using have all sorts of missing features and limitations and now your performance has dropped x% and memory usage went up instead of down. ...but you put the old module on the banned list and can't take the hit to your credibility of admitting that it wasn't as bad as the alternatives.
OJFord 2y ago
> But now, leaving seems to be like constantly picking at a festering scab. Does it? I feel similarly to your description of joining about it: maybe I can't join an EU line (more often I now join an EU + UK + ... line, so it's only a signing quirk) and my passport is a different colour, but otherwise it hasn't made a difference day-to-day.. at all? Maybe if I was an international lorry driver or something?
- greatpatton 2y ago
  EU + UK line are going to disappear when the new EU passport check (ESS) and electronic travel authorization (euphemism introduced by the US to call a visa) will come into force. And now that EU citizen have to do the same for UK it will to just transform a quick Eurostar travel in a big headache.
  - johneth 2y ago
    You've always needed to go through passport control on Eurostar.

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simonjgreen 2y ago

An area I don’t see much discussion on is the double whammy impact of Brexit AND Covid. Both have permanently reshaped live in UK and both landed within months of each other.

janice1999 2y ago
> both landed within months of each other. The Brexit vote was June 2016. The withdrawal agreement was first drafted in 2018. The business impact was being felt for years before Covid as uncertainty and confusion affected investment.
Havoc 2y ago
Not just covid, but also the huge cash printing at the time. The average person on the street saw very little of that. In the UK it has basically been a massive injection of inequality.
- orwin 2y ago
  Yeah, the issue is how the cash was spent, who it was given to. I'd rather have money printing be used for long-term investments, all things being equal. But if it can be done, I'd rather inject it in the real economy rather than in the stock market and second-hand real estate. Multiple things could have been done to do that. Rent freeze + automatic social security payments (rather than paying the business, you pay the now inactive employees until the economy starts again) would have been great.
- Zenst 2y ago
  Exactly- trickle-down economics does not work, it's trickle-up that was the overlooked and needed solution. Universal basic income, known as UBI is one tool to enable this. Removed inequality and equally, restores dignity and makes benefits and the lambasting and disdain of those in that position a thing of the past.
michh 2y ago
Sure, but every country was affected by Covid. Not always to a similar degree as Britain but the differences in Europe in that regard aren't so big. Most handled it similarly, saw similar infection rates and are seeing similar long-term consequences. Just like we were all affected by cheap Russian gas disappearing. I think you can safely cancel out Covid and Putin when comparing the way living standards and cost of living have changed over the last decade between the UK and countries like France, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, Italy, etc.

ksec 2y ago

>Countries usually strike trade deals to reduce border bureaucracy, but the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement did the reverse, restoring the customs requirements that had disappeared with the advent of the EU single market. Nothing was done in this regard. Frankly speaking the government thought the border check was good. And both UK and EU and each individual countries customs have very different views of the rules. >Starmer’s negotiations with the EU could reduce friction for some individual sectors, such as food and drink exporters, if Labour makes good on its promise to strike a veterinary agreement with Brussels. Only agriculture sector, not Food and Drink which often implies something else. >smaller companies had less capacity to deal with “the deluge” of new bureaucracy, while larger businesses had the money and staff to adapt. I can assure you even large businesses took very long time and still failed to adapt. We can all argue about whether Brexit was right or wrong on politics. But there isn't a single shred of doubt post Brexit handling was absolutely appalling.

CraigJPerry 2y ago
>> But there isn't a single shred of doubt post Brexit handling was absolutely appalling That’s not the bit that confuses me, the bit that I’ve never had a satisfying answer to is why would anyone have believed anything else might be possible? If the task was akin to extracting your eggs from a baked cake, then which personalities looked up to the job in 2016?
- ksec 2y ago
  It is the basic like trading agreement, customs and border checks, simple things that you do when you trade. The problem is absolutely no one inside the government, politicians or civil servant has any idea about trading. This makes drafting any decent, workable agreement and procedure near impossible. And that is ignoring all the politics involves, both internal and external. Having said that, all that expectation may be a tall order. I have known little to zero government that actually execute well. Singapore being perhaps the only one. US Government does well comparatively speaking, partly because they are well paid, only let down are the politics.
  - 2y ago

roenxi 2y ago

I keep an eye on OurWorldInData's Energy [0] and GDP [1] per capita graphs. They suggest that the UK is moving roughly in step with the other western-Europe powers and have been in a state of crisis since around 2005. It matches up well with the growing political instability that seems to be coming to a head all through Europe, there are a surprising number of people who refuse to accept that >33% drop in energy use (& trending) is a problem. I'd speculate that Brexit was actually a response to an energy crisis slowly eroding living standards and people are getting more antsy when it turns out that it didn't lead to saner energy policy than the EU mainland. I remain glad that I'm closer to China who, for all her faults, at least has the whole energy-and-prosperity link under control. I wish my civilisation would re-learn that one. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab=chart&country=GBR~DEU~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab... [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=line&country=DEU~GBR~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?...

hnhg 2y ago
You make good points, thanks for sharing. May I also add onto your speculation by saying that Brexit was a symptom of bad governance in general, and the energy crisis is a symptom too.
Havoc 2y ago
I'd be a bit wary of using energy use that directly as indicator. Yes, it is a broad measure of industrialization, however: Suppose a country goes on a broad national campaign to insulate drafty houses. That drops energy use, but has no corresponding drop in living standard. i.e. there is some sort of measure/factor for efficient application of energy needed for it to really be meaningful
- roenxi 2y ago
  Run me through your numbers. Where did the 33% drop in per-capita energy use come from? What order of magnitude do you think is draft reductions? Because if that were true I'd expect the UK would be a world-leading paradise with vast energy surpluses and everyone having a high old time in great comfort. That isn't the vibe they're giving off. They look like a nation with a slow-rolling energy crisis and a social contract that is coming under quite a bit of pressure because of it. Happy people don't vote for Nigel Farage.

A_D_E_P_T 2y ago

It was a good idea in principle. It was a reaction to regulatory over-reach by unelected officials on the continent, which even those officials acknowledged at the time: https://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-says-eu-interferes-too-much/ https://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-says-eu-... Yet I don't think that anybody can argue that it was handled well. It was handled abysmally poorly. - The regulatory burden on individuals and small businesses has increased quite dramatically since Brexit. New customs declarations, VAT rules, compliance checks, etc. - Transit of goods to and from EU states is now many times more difficult than it was, and a lot of European firms simply don't want to ship to the UK any longer. - Temporary skilled immigration from places like Poland and Romania has been replaced by permanent and largely unskilled immigration from places like Pakistan. En masse. Much to the consternation of Brexit voters, who have, for the most part, simply become anti-status-quo voters. The impression I get is that the UK political establishment reclaimed some control over its laws, regulations, and borders -- and proceeded to spite the populace with them. Maybe they wanted revenge for being forced into a Brexit they didn't want to go through with. "We'll give it to 'em, good and hard."

pavlov 2y ago
You sound like those old-school communists who insist that it's a very good idea in principle, but the proletariat has always been betrayed by leaders who didn't have enough faith.
greatpatton 2y ago
Referring to 'unelected officials' highlights a misunderstanding of how the EU operates and getting really tiring. They are named like most executive of other countries and confirmed by the EU parliament. The French prime minister is even more an unelected official than a EU commmissioner.
- A_D_E_P_T 2y ago
  In the US, executive branch functionaries don't get to propose legislation, and even their ability to interpret rules has recently been constrained. The EU commission consists of appointed bureaucrats, and one's national representatives in the EU commission and the EU parliament are always -- by definition -- a minority. I think that the UK's old share was something like 9%, which was not nearly enough to pass or block legislation without a lot of outside assistance. Simply put, there was no way for a voter in the UK to meaningfully affect EU regulations. There was -- and still is -- essentially zero democratic influence at the member-state level.

a_c 2y ago

They have only realised the leaving part. They haven’t committed to the being a better European country part. Regulations, tax, government spending, immigration are no better than leaving the EU. They have so much potential if the Tory didn’t waste effort in fighting for status. Liz truss was right in bringing down government spending and lowering tax, Suella Braverman was right about immigration. Boris Johnson was right about abolishing EU regulations. Now everything is even worse, more tax, no cap illegal immigration, more government debt. But people instead blame the brexit.

FinnLobsien 2y ago
I've always wondered this about how Brexit went. However you feel about the way the EU and member states are currently run, it's odd to make such a big deal about leaving and then copy everything about the EU. Feels like you're just creating an EU country with less freedom of movement and free trade.

jaggs 2y ago

These threads are usually overcome by shills, AI or people who live nowhere near the UK. It gets really boring after a while.

sys_64738 2y ago

Britain got what they voted for in the referendum and that's to be outside of it. It's permanent and 100% legally binding with no going back. It's pointless trying to compare the tranquil and prosperous days of EU membership with the bum deal they have today. Totally pointless.

Anonbrit 2y ago
There's absolutely nothing (other than internal politics) to stop Britain from asking to rejoin the EU, just like any other country. They'd lose a bunch of the perks they had from being a founding member, but countries joining the EU is a well known process