6 ms·

> They expect the problem to worsen. The stock market has climbed 23% this year... The problem will resolve itself if (when?) the market crashes. I remember t

> They expect the problem to worsen. The stock market has climbed 23% this year... The problem will resolve itself if (when?) the market crashes. I remember the run up to the dot-com bust. I was too much of a bumpkin at the time to even know how I would trade stocks — but I listened to an acquaintance go on and on about how much he was making on the market. At the time I guessed that he was much smarter than me — that it would take me years to become as investment-savvy as this guy was. In time, especially after the next bubble in 2008 when I had become more savvy, I came to see this guy as having been in the market at a time when even a monkey throwing darts could look like Warren Buffet. So too I think are many of today's investors. (I would include myself but perhaps not: I have been won over by Boglism, a balanced portfolio, infrequent trading, etc.)

Pooge 2y ago
I have to disagree with you. Comparing long-term, passive investors to short-term speculators seems unfair and simplistic to me.
- JKCalhoun 2y ago
  I thought we were talking exclusively about short-term speculators.
  - Pooge 2y ago
    Oh? Perhaps I misunderstood when you said "infrequent trading". I'm also wondering why I'm getting downvoted but this is the Internet for me :)
rrrrrrrrrrrryan 2y ago
> At the time I guessed that he was much smarter than me — that it would take me years to become as investment-savvy as this guy was. You lucked out by mistakingly believing he was intelligent. The classic scenario is when your neighbor is obviously an idiot, making tremendous amounts of money in the market, and you have to explain to your spouse why you can't/won't emulate them. That's when even bright, (normally) level-headed people start piling in before the bubble bursts.
- The_Colonel 2y ago
  Indeed, most frustrating is when someone (stupid) is proven right, even though they used completely wrong reasoning (in spirit of Gettier problem).
  - sgerenser 2y ago
    There’s a common saying in the investing world that applies here: “confusing strategy with outcome.” The outcome may be good, as it was in this case, even though the strategy was terrible. But most people get them confused and think it’s the strategy (going all in on bitcoin or TSLA options or whatever) that was good and won them their riches.
fullshark 2y ago
The Gov't / Federal Reserve has made it clear they will not let the value of assets drop significantly ever again. The entire planet's capital is now betting on US equities going up and to right forever, and all levers will be used and invented wholesale from nothing to keep that going.
- epicureanideal 2y ago
  At some point though something will happen such that they can’t keep their fist on the scale, and then the market can correct suddenly. Unfortunately government intervention makes it even more unpredictable when that will be.
- delfinom 2y ago
  Yea, except the inflation we encountered in the last 3 years were directly from trying to keep asset values from dropping. They are at their ropes end. There really isn't that much room between mass inflation vs. the rich keeping their numbers infinity growing.
  - selectodude 2y ago
    That’s a fundamental misunderstanding of asset prices vs interest rates.
  - SoftTalker 2y ago
    Exactly. The "crash" can happen via exploding inflation, or falling markets. Either way results in the same thing.
- omnee 2y ago
  This implies that a sustained crash will only happen if/when these two institutions are no longer capable of supporting the market. In effect, it's a bet against the US, which so far has been a losing one.
- kortilla 2y ago
  The federal reserve literally just got through a monetary tightening policy that paid zero regard to the stock market. The fed will juice to keep employment up and tighten to keep inflation down. They will not support stocks at the expense of those mandates
bilater 2y ago
This is easy to say but the reality is being a monkey and throwing money in the market over the last 15 years would have made you f u money. Yet most people never did it. So who is the genius: the guy who remains on the sidelines and eventually is proved right or the guy who remained in the market and did face a brutal correction. One thing I've learned about myself is that I'll never be the guy on the right end of that mid curve meme so I might as well lean in on being on the left.
mordymoop 2y ago
The problem is that I have been seeing some version of the “crash imminent, sell everything” thesis for my entire life. Almost nobody who “saw the crash coming” in the case of the dotcom bubble, or covid, or the subprime crisis made any money, because almost nobody gets the timing or magnitude of the crash right. You can find YouTube channels that have been warning people that a crash is imminent for the last two years. If you had been out of the market for the last two years you would have missed historical gains, and for what? The magnitude of the crash you’re protecting yourself from would now have to be impractically huge for you to come out ahead. Much better to just stay in the market, knowing that there will be crashes and you will have days where the numbers look awful, because they’ll look great again in a few years.
- kortilla 2y ago
  The risk of a crash is why you stay out of single stock concentration and why you avoid day trading. Its not an argument to stay out of the market.
- SoftTalker 2y ago
  This is the reason dollar-cost-averaging works. You buy less (shares) when the market is high, and more when it is low, without thinking about it and without trying to "time" your transactions (which almost always fails unless you have inside info).
  - regresscheck 2y ago
    It works in a sense of not timing the market. Lump sum beats dollar-cost averaging - because you have more time in market.
    - SoftTalker 2y ago
      Sure, if you have a lump sum to start with. But dollar-cost-averaging beats saving up a lump sum and then investing.
      - 2y ago
jarsin 2y ago
The SPY and QQQ charts zoomed out are starting to look like the biggest parabola of all time in markets. 1999 is just a blip on this monster. Seeing all kinds of warning signs from family members who never traded or got into crypto until just this past 6 months.
- xcv123 2y ago
  Change the chart to logarithmic scaling. You need to use log scaling for long term stock market charts The dotcom crash was huge in terms of the percentage drop Nasdaq crashed 84%. https://www.tradingview.com/x/xm2zypvg/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/xm2zypvg/
- CliveBloomers 2y ago
  > Seeing all kinds of warning signs from family members who never traded or got into crypto until just this past 6 months. That's just jealousy, Those who sit on the sidelines complain the most. Like I said in my previous post if you didn't see it. I see it as that the barrier to entry for making money has never been lower. Right now, it’s one of the best times in history for anyone to start earning, not just the Wall Street elites. Thanks to AI tools and online platforms, it’s easier than ever. Every week, new tools are being launched, some even claiming returns as high as 400%. Take the NexusTrade guy on Reddit as an example. He created his own investment tool and is now in conversations with Wall Street professionals. It’s so accessible now that with just $100, you could invest in a stock like NVIDIA, double your money in a week, then reinvest across multiple stocks and multiply it again. Suddenly, $100 turns into $2,500 in no time. I get your point about everyone making money, but why is that a bad thing? Isn’t it great that anyone can do it? These platforms are practically making money for you, whether you’re at work, at home, or even asleep. Like someone once said, “If you can’t make money while you sleep, you’ll work until you die.” It’s never been easier to earn significant amounts of money, and it doesn’t look like this trend is slowing down anytime soon.
  - defrost 2y ago
    > you could invest in a stock like NVIDIA, double your money in a week NASDAQ: NVDA (3.09%) past month
neilv 2y ago
> The problem will resolve itself if (when?) the market crashes. Someone said something like, Everyone thinks they're a genius, when the market only goes up. Although, one thing different now is the heavy throughout-the-day manipulation of retail investors, effectively making strong social groups and identities around it. That wasn't a thing when, say, ETrade started, and lots of people dabbled, and found it was hard to lose money, just trading around different companies, with little understanding of how things even supposedly work, much less how things actually worked. Today, from what I occasionally glimpse, you've got all these supposed skills you're applying as a retail investor/sheep/pawn (including various degrees of snake oil, or thinking you're going to be one of the smarter people on a pump/dump scheme that leaves others holding the bag), and constant social groups where people even self-deprecatingly celebrate huge day-trading losses. Like a wholesome support group that actively encourages you to stick with the bad habit, rather than encourages you to stay sober. So maybe, when the next big culling comes, you'll have lots of people who can somehow still get margin accounts, and will say, "Blood in the streets, and I'm missing 3 limbs, but, hey, stocks are on sale!" And a thundering chorus of other addicts, and their manipulators, encouraging them. (Disclosures: S&P 500 ETF with low expense ratio in tax-advantaged, plus an emergency fund that goes nowhere near the market. :)
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
prng2021 2y ago
A market crash won’t be a silver bullet. I’ve known several gambling addicts and that’s not how addiction works. They don’t just stop because they lose a bunch of money. They always hold out hope they’ll be able to win everything back “next time”.
NomDePlum 2y ago
I've worked as a software engineer for various investment banks. The best quote and investment advice I've heard on those engagements is "Only monkey's pick bottoms" Middle of the road, risk managed funds are our best chance of financial success, not individually predicting the market dynamics.
MarcelOlsz 2y ago
The worst is the crypto gamblers thinking they are "investing". If they make even the smallest profit you'll never hear the end of it.
guipsp 2y ago
>> They expect the problem to worsen. The stock market has climbed 23% this year... > >The problem will resolve itself if (when?) the market crashes. This sounds like a terrible way to "solve" the problem
CliveBloomers 2y ago
I see it as that the barrier to entry for making money has never been lower. Right now, it’s one of the best times in history for anyone to start earning, not just the Wall Street elites. Thanks to AI tools and online platforms, it’s easier than ever. Every week, new tools are being launched, some even claiming returns as high as 400%. Take the NexusTrade guy on Reddit as an example. He created his own investment tool and is now in conversations with Wall Street professionals. It’s so accessible now that with just $100, you could invest in a stock like NVIDIA, double your money in a week, then reinvest across multiple stocks and multiply it again. Suddenly, $100 turns into $2,500 in no time. I get your point about everyone making money, but why is that a bad thing? Isn’t it great that anyone can do it? These platforms are practically making money for you, whether you’re at work, at home, or even asleep. Like someone once said, “If you can’t make money while you sleep, you’ll work until you die.” It’s never been easier to earn significant amounts of money, and it doesn’t look like this trend is slowing down anytime soon.
- fragmede 2y ago
  You could also have invested in SMCI at its high of $113. it's now down at $34.
aaron695 2y ago
[dead]
solumunus 2y ago
Personally I got into this when the stock market crashed in 2020 and I made shit loads. There are big winners during crashes too, some of the biggest wins.
- dartos 2y ago
  Yeah currently young adults are screwed when it comes to gambling addiction. They were children in the heyday of abusive loot boxes and cs go gambling. Turned 18 right around when sports betting apps became legal. In their early 20s crypto exploded. Now, apps like yotta prey on them. Stock trading apps make it easy to dump your money on tsla. Is going to be rough
_heimdall 2y ago
I've yet to really land on my opinion of the idea of a pending market crash with how much money printing has gone on. All the standard indicators I look at really line up with the idea that a crash should be coming, or should already have happened. Companies aren't valued based on the fundamentals anymore, for example, and yet here we are. Its starting to feel more like the perpetually increasing market, despite the fundamentals, is a sign of how weak printing and inflation is making the dollar. Stocks can go up when the companies are worth more (ideally because they are producing more), but prices can also go up because the currency used to value the stocks is taking a serious hit.
veunes 2y ago
Illusion of genius

Pooge 2y ago

I have to disagree with you. Comparing long-term, passive investors to short-term speculators seems unfair and simplistic to me.

JKCalhoun 2y ago
I thought we were talking exclusively about short-term speculators.
- Pooge 2y ago
  Oh? Perhaps I misunderstood when you said "infrequent trading". I'm also wondering why I'm getting downvoted but this is the Internet for me :)

rrrrrrrrrrrryan 2y ago

> At the time I guessed that he was much smarter than me — that it would take me years to become as investment-savvy as this guy was. You lucked out by mistakingly believing he was intelligent. The classic scenario is when your neighbor is obviously an idiot, making tremendous amounts of money in the market, and you have to explain to your spouse why you can't/won't emulate them. That's when even bright, (normally) level-headed people start piling in before the bubble bursts.

The_Colonel 2y ago
Indeed, most frustrating is when someone (stupid) is proven right, even though they used completely wrong reasoning (in spirit of Gettier problem).
- sgerenser 2y ago
  There’s a common saying in the investing world that applies here: “confusing strategy with outcome.” The outcome may be good, as it was in this case, even though the strategy was terrible. But most people get them confused and think it’s the strategy (going all in on bitcoin or TSLA options or whatever) that was good and won them their riches.

fullshark 2y ago

The Gov't / Federal Reserve has made it clear they will not let the value of assets drop significantly ever again. The entire planet's capital is now betting on US equities going up and to right forever, and all levers will be used and invented wholesale from nothing to keep that going.

epicureanideal 2y ago
At some point though something will happen such that they can’t keep their fist on the scale, and then the market can correct suddenly. Unfortunately government intervention makes it even more unpredictable when that will be.
delfinom 2y ago
Yea, except the inflation we encountered in the last 3 years were directly from trying to keep asset values from dropping. They are at their ropes end. There really isn't that much room between mass inflation vs. the rich keeping their numbers infinity growing.
- selectodude 2y ago
  That’s a fundamental misunderstanding of asset prices vs interest rates.
- SoftTalker 2y ago
  Exactly. The "crash" can happen via exploding inflation, or falling markets. Either way results in the same thing.
omnee 2y ago
This implies that a sustained crash will only happen if/when these two institutions are no longer capable of supporting the market. In effect, it's a bet against the US, which so far has been a losing one.
kortilla 2y ago
The federal reserve literally just got through a monetary tightening policy that paid zero regard to the stock market. The fed will juice to keep employment up and tighten to keep inflation down. They will not support stocks at the expense of those mandates

bilater 2y ago

This is easy to say but the reality is being a monkey and throwing money in the market over the last 15 years would have made you f u money. Yet most people never did it. So who is the genius: the guy who remains on the sidelines and eventually is proved right or the guy who remained in the market and did face a brutal correction. One thing I've learned about myself is that I'll never be the guy on the right end of that mid curve meme so I might as well lean in on being on the left.

mordymoop 2y ago

The problem is that I have been seeing some version of the “crash imminent, sell everything” thesis for my entire life. Almost nobody who “saw the crash coming” in the case of the dotcom bubble, or covid, or the subprime crisis made any money, because almost nobody gets the timing or magnitude of the crash right. You can find YouTube channels that have been warning people that a crash is imminent for the last two years. If you had been out of the market for the last two years you would have missed historical gains, and for what? The magnitude of the crash you’re protecting yourself from would now have to be impractically huge for you to come out ahead. Much better to just stay in the market, knowing that there will be crashes and you will have days where the numbers look awful, because they’ll look great again in a few years.

kortilla 2y ago
The risk of a crash is why you stay out of single stock concentration and why you avoid day trading. Its not an argument to stay out of the market.
SoftTalker 2y ago
This is the reason dollar-cost-averaging works. You buy less (shares) when the market is high, and more when it is low, without thinking about it and without trying to "time" your transactions (which almost always fails unless you have inside info).
- regresscheck 2y ago
  It works in a sense of not timing the market. Lump sum beats dollar-cost averaging - because you have more time in market.
  - SoftTalker 2y ago
    Sure, if you have a lump sum to start with. But dollar-cost-averaging beats saving up a lump sum and then investing.
    - 2y ago

jarsin 2y ago

The SPY and QQQ charts zoomed out are starting to look like the biggest parabola of all time in markets. 1999 is just a blip on this monster. Seeing all kinds of warning signs from family members who never traded or got into crypto until just this past 6 months.

xcv123 2y ago
Change the chart to logarithmic scaling. You need to use log scaling for long term stock market charts The dotcom crash was huge in terms of the percentage drop Nasdaq crashed 84%. https://www.tradingview.com/x/xm2zypvg/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/xm2zypvg/
CliveBloomers 2y ago
> Seeing all kinds of warning signs from family members who never traded or got into crypto until just this past 6 months. That's just jealousy, Those who sit on the sidelines complain the most. Like I said in my previous post if you didn't see it. I see it as that the barrier to entry for making money has never been lower. Right now, it’s one of the best times in history for anyone to start earning, not just the Wall Street elites. Thanks to AI tools and online platforms, it’s easier than ever. Every week, new tools are being launched, some even claiming returns as high as 400%. Take the NexusTrade guy on Reddit as an example. He created his own investment tool and is now in conversations with Wall Street professionals. It’s so accessible now that with just $100, you could invest in a stock like NVIDIA, double your money in a week, then reinvest across multiple stocks and multiply it again. Suddenly, $100 turns into $2,500 in no time. I get your point about everyone making money, but why is that a bad thing? Isn’t it great that anyone can do it? These platforms are practically making money for you, whether you’re at work, at home, or even asleep. Like someone once said, “If you can’t make money while you sleep, you’ll work until you die.” It’s never been easier to earn significant amounts of money, and it doesn’t look like this trend is slowing down anytime soon.
- defrost 2y ago
  > you could invest in a stock like NVIDIA, double your money in a week NASDAQ: NVDA (3.09%) past month

neilv 2y ago

> The problem will resolve itself if (when?) the market crashes. Someone said something like, Everyone thinks they're a genius, when the market only goes up. Although, one thing different now is the heavy throughout-the-day manipulation of retail investors, effectively making strong social groups and identities around it. That wasn't a thing when, say, ETrade started, and lots of people dabbled, and found it was hard to lose money, just trading around different companies, with little understanding of how things even supposedly work, much less how things actually worked. Today, from what I occasionally glimpse, you've got all these supposed skills you're applying as a retail investor/sheep/pawn (including various degrees of snake oil, or thinking you're going to be one of the smarter people on a pump/dump scheme that leaves others holding the bag), and constant social groups where people even self-deprecatingly celebrate huge day-trading losses. Like a wholesome support group that actively encourages you to stick with the bad habit, rather than encourages you to stay sober. So maybe, when the next big culling comes, you'll have lots of people who can somehow still get margin accounts, and will say, "Blood in the streets, and I'm missing 3 limbs, but, hey, stocks are on sale!" And a thundering chorus of other addicts, and their manipulators, encouraging them. (Disclosures: S&P 500 ETF with low expense ratio in tax-advantaged, plus an emergency fund that goes nowhere near the market. :)

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

prng2021 2y ago

A market crash won’t be a silver bullet. I’ve known several gambling addicts and that’s not how addiction works. They don’t just stop because they lose a bunch of money. They always hold out hope they’ll be able to win everything back “next time”.

NomDePlum 2y ago

I've worked as a software engineer for various investment banks. The best quote and investment advice I've heard on those engagements is "Only monkey's pick bottoms" Middle of the road, risk managed funds are our best chance of financial success, not individually predicting the market dynamics.

MarcelOlsz 2y ago

The worst is the crypto gamblers thinking they are "investing". If they make even the smallest profit you'll never hear the end of it.

guipsp 2y ago

>> They expect the problem to worsen. The stock market has climbed 23% this year... > >The problem will resolve itself if (when?) the market crashes. This sounds like a terrible way to "solve" the problem

CliveBloomers 2y ago

I see it as that the barrier to entry for making money has never been lower. Right now, it’s one of the best times in history for anyone to start earning, not just the Wall Street elites. Thanks to AI tools and online platforms, it’s easier than ever. Every week, new tools are being launched, some even claiming returns as high as 400%. Take the NexusTrade guy on Reddit as an example. He created his own investment tool and is now in conversations with Wall Street professionals. It’s so accessible now that with just $100, you could invest in a stock like NVIDIA, double your money in a week, then reinvest across multiple stocks and multiply it again. Suddenly, $100 turns into $2,500 in no time. I get your point about everyone making money, but why is that a bad thing? Isn’t it great that anyone can do it? These platforms are practically making money for you, whether you’re at work, at home, or even asleep. Like someone once said, “If you can’t make money while you sleep, you’ll work until you die.” It’s never been easier to earn significant amounts of money, and it doesn’t look like this trend is slowing down anytime soon.

fragmede 2y ago
You could also have invested in SMCI at its high of $113. it's now down at $34.

aaron695 2y ago

[dead]

solumunus 2y ago

Personally I got into this when the stock market crashed in 2020 and I made shit loads. There are big winners during crashes too, some of the biggest wins.

dartos 2y ago
Yeah currently young adults are screwed when it comes to gambling addiction. They were children in the heyday of abusive loot boxes and cs go gambling. Turned 18 right around when sports betting apps became legal. In their early 20s crypto exploded. Now, apps like yotta prey on them. Stock trading apps make it easy to dump your money on tsla. Is going to be rough

_heimdall 2y ago

I've yet to really land on my opinion of the idea of a pending market crash with how much money printing has gone on. All the standard indicators I look at really line up with the idea that a crash should be coming, or should already have happened. Companies aren't valued based on the fundamentals anymore, for example, and yet here we are. Its starting to feel more like the perpetually increasing market, despite the fundamentals, is a sign of how weak printing and inflation is making the dollar. Stocks can go up when the companies are worth more (ideally because they are producing more), but prices can also go up because the currency used to value the stocks is taking a serious hit.

veunes 2y ago

Illusion of genius