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I doubt there's ever going to be a big bang moment where self driving just works everywhere. Instead it's going to be a slow rollout of self driving taxi's in i

I doubt there's ever going to be a big bang moment where self driving just works everywhere. Instead it's going to be a slow rollout of self driving taxi's in increasingly different environments.

dilap 2y ago
Depends on if Tesla succeeds or not. I'm betting they will.
- chippiewill 2y ago
  It still won't be a big bang moment. There might be a moment you can go hands off on highways, and a moment you can go hands off in urban environments. But it's still going to be gradual overall.
  - ghaff 2y ago
    I've been a bit surprised that no one (well GM was mildly pushing in this direction at one point) has really gone after autonomous driving on selected highways within some weather parameters. I know urbanites get all worked up about robotaxis but a system that lets me chill for the next 100 miles of highway driving seems far more interesting if it's reliable/safe.
    - chippiewill 2y ago
      Highways is this weird thing where building the L2/L3 capability is comparatively easy (Which is why Tesla autopilot has been halfway decent for a long time now, and BMW have a true L3 system in restricted areas where you can take eyes off the road), but L4 is really hard because a true L4 system has to always be safe even if the driver doesn't take over. You could be tens of miles between highway exits, and just stopping on a highway isn't exactly safe by default. An L4 system therefore needs to handle anything between its current position and the next exit which massively ramps up the number of possible situations it needs to be able to handle compared to the L2/L3 equivalent. L4 in an urban environment is weirdly feasible by comparison, even though we still don't have examples of extremely good L2/L3 systems yet (there's far more complexity by default compared to highways: lights, pedestrians, complex lane decisions, more visual noise, higher average relative speeds) we already have these L4 Taxis being rolled out. The reason is that if a driver doesn't take over it's much easier to find a "safe" place to stop. Apart from getting stuck in the middle of a junction, you can feasibly park up anywhere that has speeds <=40mph.
  - dilap 2y ago
    My understanding is that Tesla's approach is to not require hyper-detailed maps. So far it doesn't work well enough, but if they do manage to get it working, then I think it will actually be a "boom, suddenly it works everywhere" moment. Waymo One, by contrast, requires extremely detailed maps of the service area, which is why they can only slowly roll it out place by place.
    - chippiewill 2y ago
      It's not about maps, it's about operational design domain. The requirements for a self-driving vehicle on highways is very different from urban and and very different from sub-urban. Multiply that with how different countries and cities have very different looking roads, e.g. narrow windy roads in London vs wide straight roads in Phoenix. I agree it's not going to be an location-by-location rollout (other than for regulatory reasons). But I do think Tesla will find that their product "just works" in some places, and doesn't work at all in others - at least for a time. I don't think Tesla would sit on their hands and say "it's not ready yet" until they'd cracked everything. If it's safe to take a nap on Highways and not safe in an urban area then I think they'll just start selling that.
- redeux 2y ago
  Is Tesla a serious competitor in this space? I know they've made a lot of noise about self-driving cars, but that all seems to be hype generated to sell more human-driven cars. Maybe I'm off base here. I don't really follow Tesla closely.
  - kristofferR 2y ago
    Tesla's announced Cybercab literally can't be driven by humans, it has no steering wheel/yoke. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Cybercab https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Cybercab
    - redeux 2y ago
      From your link, the Cybercab is a concept with an unknown release date using technology wasn't even demo-able during the reveal. This seems more in line with my comment about generating hype rather than a convincing show of capability. Even if they do release it, which would be cool, wouldn't it be like a decade behind Waymo at that point?
      - kristofferR 2y ago
        No, Tesla has let select users run full self-driving betas for years, it's a very capable system now. Here's a good and relatively recent (3 months old) video about how its current capacities: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qY51q2Zifc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qY51q2Zifc If you want to see how the latest beta drives, it's version 12.5.6: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+12.5.6 https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+12.5.6 . It's still far from ready to release, but it is also improving very quickly - far from solely hype. They have the most impressive non-geolocked self-driving system as far as I'm aware.
  - inerte 2y ago
    It depends on what you mean by competitor. afaik Mercedez sells a self-driven level 3 autonomous car where they even insure the driver/car, but it's pretty expensive. Tesla has the numbers, but not a single car that can do as much as the Mercedez. Tesla promises they can just push an update an everybody gets a self-driving car, but they've been saying that for... 7 years maybe?
- whynotmaybe 2y ago
  I can't suppress the strong feeling that they will, not by being technologically mature, but by easing a lot of regulations that are restraining them now. Especially with Tesla's Ceo soon to be a member of the government. Just like cars companies made jaywalking illegal or bought public transport companies to close them.
  - archagon 2y ago
    Yes. I expect that self-driving Tesla accidents will be rapidly suppressed.
laluser 2y ago
Absolutely. Every country, state, city, county can enact their own regulations as they see fit. This is Uber rollout on steroids, imo. There are some many hurdles to making this happen even if the tech exists.
bigyikes 2y ago
The Waymo-Tesla duality is so fun. Tesla FSD already works everywhere, even on unpaved roads. It just doesn’t work as well as Waymo. Waymo works very well, just not in as many places as Tesla. You might bet on Waymo because they have a fully working product already, but I’m betting on Tesla because of the vast amount of training data they are collecting. There’s a bitter lesson here.
- ra7 2y ago
  Waymo works in 4 cities as a fully autonomous vehicle. Tesla works nowhere as a fully autonomous vehicle.
- appletrotter 2y ago
  I’m betting on waymo because they use lidar
  - dawnerd 2y ago
    Well and because they actually have real self driving cars without a safety driver. Tesla doesn't have that and only has demoed it in very specific scenarios.
    - Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
      It's not that black-and-white. And those demos are VERY old at this point. I own a Tesla, though I don't own FSD, but this year, Tesla has given all cars a trial of FSD on two occasions. It works remarkably well. I backed out of my driveway, then enabled FSD and it drove all the way across Portland to a friend's place with zero intervention. It was about a 15 mile, 30 minute drive. It navigated neighborhood roads without markings and tons of cars parked on the curb. It got onto the freeway and navigated, including changing lanes to overtake slow traffic. Once I got to their place, I was able to tell it to automatically parallel park on the curb. As far as I'm concerned, Tesla has fulfilled their promise of full self driving. The "supervised" requirement is basically just being used as a legal loophole to avoid liability if it fails.
tapoxi 2y ago
I'm not going to get excited until this can drive in Boston/Cambridge. If it can navigate that nightmare (and not kill any cyclists) I'll be impressed with what self-driving cars can do. Bonus points if they can work in snow when sightlines are obscured.
- tayo42 2y ago
  is boston that much crazier then san francisco? ignoring snow for now. I hate driving in SF
  - ghaff 2y ago
    Depends on the location. I don't like driving in SF especially but there are some areas of Boston that are pretty crazy if you're not used to them and don't intuitively know when to get over into some lane and aren't used to driving pretty aggressively at times.
    - AlotOfReading 2y ago
      It's worth keeping in mind that autonomous vehicles find different things challenging than humans do. Weird road shapes and knowing how to route into some lane is pretty straightforward with map data. It's the "normal" parts of driving like predicting other road users that are more difficult.
      - ghaff 2y ago
        Totally fair. Things I might find challenging as a human unfamiliar with a given location (though GPS tends to help a lot) are probably different from an autonomous vehicle dealing with a lot of borderline crazy behavior by other cars, cyclists, and pedestrians darting out into traffic. A person also can just process so many inputs at once so you get into situations that are challenging in part because so much is going on.
  - tapoxi 2y ago
    Boston doesn't have a grid system, lanes aren't marked, really weird and complex intersections, etc. This intersection is a local favorite, a backed-up lane off the highway onto a half-rotary that splits off into multiple directions: https://www.google.com/maps/@42.3560154,-71.1859078,17.52z?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTEwNi4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D https://www.google.com/maps/@42.3560154,-71.1859078,17.52z?e...
colechristensen 2y ago
In places that have real winters, there are going to be significant blocks of time where self-driving will never work unless real synthetic intelligence is reached. Way too much of this is developed in places that... don't have weather.
- xnx 2y ago
  Waymo is doing winter testing in Buffalo, NY.
- fragmede 2y ago
  When you stomp on the brakes in a reasonably new car that's skidding on ice and it makes a loud thunking noise, what is that, and what's controlling that system?
  - colechristensen 2y ago
    ABS, "anti-lock brake system" It's been standard in cars for a long time. It's a really pretty simple system that ensures that your wheels aren't just completely stopped while you're braking hard on slick services. When the wheel's are completely stopped there's less friction than when they're still rolling near the speed of the road. Also when your wheels are locked steering is nearly impossible, but you do have directional control while they're still rolling. Some of the systems are more advanced than others, but the basic version just compares the speed of the wheels to each other.
    - fragmede 2y ago
      And this ay-bee-ess system is able to control the car and bring a car to a stop on snow and ice in way shorter a distance a human is able to, to the point that new drivers are taught to stomp on the brakes and let the computer control the brakes because it's able to do it better than an ordinary human; this system is controlled by computers? But then somehow driving on snow is going to be this total show stopper that is just utterly insurmountable gotcha for computers driving cars? Nevermind that crawl, walk, and then run/go out in the snow is a totally reasonable way to deliver a product, and that even if it never works in the snow, there's enough of the global that doesn't get snow (no thanks to global warming) that it's still a worthwhile investment, even if only to prevent drunk drivers from choosing to driving drunk during the summer months. Driving on snow is just an exercise in modeling friction in a computer and which way the car will go given available sensor input. Self driving cars don't innately have a concept of friction the same way a human with feet does, and they're able to drive on static asphalt, and also snow, with some training. Human drivers should practice driving in the snow in a parking lot to understand how the car slips and slides and grips operates under those conditions before taking to the road. (It's also fun!) I'm sure it'll take a lo of doing to winterize the sensor packages and for the software to work well enough to be reliable when there's just snow on the ground that hasn't been plowed recently, nevermind when it's actively snowing. But personally I think it's a when and not if as to whether or not self driving taxis will ever hit New England. (No guess as to a specific timeframe though, lol.)
moduspol 2y ago
Of course. We're still there with the horses -> cars transition. There are still plenty of places that horses can get to but cars can't. And similarly: the transition will also go in the other direction. We'll start making roads and navigation easier for self-driving cars and prioritize the destinations we care about the most. At the tail end of the transition, there will still be areas with ridiculous intersections and confusing rules that only humans can do. We just won't care about them as much by then because everything we do care about is reachable by self-driving cars.
- gamblor956 2y ago
  Roads are already easy to drive. We already have signs on roads directing people to the most prioritized destinations. And now we have navigation apps that can even provide turn-by-turn and lane-by-lane directions. The issue is that most people simply ignore traffic rules when it is convenient to do so. We didn't redesign roads and navigation for taxis or rideshares, and we're not going to do that for self-driving cars either.
  - moduspol 2y ago
    We absolutely do redesign roads when the existing design becomes suboptimal as indicated by an increased number of accidents or driver complaints. And we do sometimes have lanes specifically for buses / taxis, too. We already do this stuff, and we won't need to rebuild 99% of roads. It's the "less than 1%" that are already tricky for normal humans that might need a rework. Or self-driving cars will just take suboptimal routes, if those roads / intersections aren't the only ways to important destinations.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - bobthepanda 2y ago
    This depends on where you are. Where I live in Seattle, they have rolled out significantly more 5-30 minute loading only zones on former street parking to deal with the uptick in rideshares and food/parcel deliveries, because the alternative is a bunch of illegal double parking.
sigmar 2y ago
Slow rollout? Waymo's growth has been insane the past year. Log graph: https://x.com/brianwilt/status/1851366713507344742/photo/1 https://x.com/brianwilt/status/1851366713507344742/photo/1
- Stedag 2y ago
  Good point. At 2 trips per day for 300M Americans over 7 days, that would put the rideshare takeover at ~4.2Bn. If we extrapolated based on the referenced graph and exponential growth, that would put the takeover at 2029 :) Its safe to assume that the limiting factors will soon become sourcing of components of the perception and control stacks.
  - sigmar 2y ago
    Yeah, I wonder how much money they're pouring into lidar production. Particularly considering that they've partnered with Hyundai, Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz Group AG, Jaguar Land Rover, and Volvo.
    - fragmede 2y ago
      And Uber. https://waymo.com/blog/2024/09/waymo-and-uber-expand-partnership/ https://waymo.com/blog/2024/09/waymo-and-uber-expand-partner...
- fragmede 2y ago
  In terms of geographic area. It's still only open to the public in three places, with Austin on wait-list status.

I doubt there's ever going to be a big bang moment where self driving just works everywhere. Instead it's going to be a slow rollout of self driving taxi's in increasingly different environments.

dilap 2y ago

Depends on if Tesla succeeds or not. I'm betting they will.

chippiewill 2y ago
It still won't be a big bang moment. There might be a moment you can go hands off on highways, and a moment you can go hands off in urban environments. But it's still going to be gradual overall.
- ghaff 2y ago
  I've been a bit surprised that no one (well GM was mildly pushing in this direction at one point) has really gone after autonomous driving on selected highways within some weather parameters. I know urbanites get all worked up about robotaxis but a system that lets me chill for the next 100 miles of highway driving seems far more interesting if it's reliable/safe.
  - chippiewill 2y ago
    Highways is this weird thing where building the L2/L3 capability is comparatively easy (Which is why Tesla autopilot has been halfway decent for a long time now, and BMW have a true L3 system in restricted areas where you can take eyes off the road), but L4 is really hard because a true L4 system has to always be safe even if the driver doesn't take over. You could be tens of miles between highway exits, and just stopping on a highway isn't exactly safe by default. An L4 system therefore needs to handle anything between its current position and the next exit which massively ramps up the number of possible situations it needs to be able to handle compared to the L2/L3 equivalent. L4 in an urban environment is weirdly feasible by comparison, even though we still don't have examples of extremely good L2/L3 systems yet (there's far more complexity by default compared to highways: lights, pedestrians, complex lane decisions, more visual noise, higher average relative speeds) we already have these L4 Taxis being rolled out. The reason is that if a driver doesn't take over it's much easier to find a "safe" place to stop. Apart from getting stuck in the middle of a junction, you can feasibly park up anywhere that has speeds <=40mph.
- dilap 2y ago
  My understanding is that Tesla's approach is to not require hyper-detailed maps. So far it doesn't work well enough, but if they do manage to get it working, then I think it will actually be a "boom, suddenly it works everywhere" moment. Waymo One, by contrast, requires extremely detailed maps of the service area, which is why they can only slowly roll it out place by place.
  - chippiewill 2y ago
    It's not about maps, it's about operational design domain. The requirements for a self-driving vehicle on highways is very different from urban and and very different from sub-urban. Multiply that with how different countries and cities have very different looking roads, e.g. narrow windy roads in London vs wide straight roads in Phoenix. I agree it's not going to be an location-by-location rollout (other than for regulatory reasons). But I do think Tesla will find that their product "just works" in some places, and doesn't work at all in others - at least for a time. I don't think Tesla would sit on their hands and say "it's not ready yet" until they'd cracked everything. If it's safe to take a nap on Highways and not safe in an urban area then I think they'll just start selling that.
redeux 2y ago
Is Tesla a serious competitor in this space? I know they've made a lot of noise about self-driving cars, but that all seems to be hype generated to sell more human-driven cars. Maybe I'm off base here. I don't really follow Tesla closely.
- kristofferR 2y ago
  Tesla's announced Cybercab literally can't be driven by humans, it has no steering wheel/yoke. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Cybercab https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Cybercab
  - redeux 2y ago
    From your link, the Cybercab is a concept with an unknown release date using technology wasn't even demo-able during the reveal. This seems more in line with my comment about generating hype rather than a convincing show of capability. Even if they do release it, which would be cool, wouldn't it be like a decade behind Waymo at that point?
    - kristofferR 2y ago
      No, Tesla has let select users run full self-driving betas for years, it's a very capable system now. Here's a good and relatively recent (3 months old) video about how its current capacities: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qY51q2Zifc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qY51q2Zifc If you want to see how the latest beta drives, it's version 12.5.6: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+12.5.6 https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=tesla+12.5.6 . It's still far from ready to release, but it is also improving very quickly - far from solely hype. They have the most impressive non-geolocked self-driving system as far as I'm aware.
- inerte 2y ago
  It depends on what you mean by competitor. afaik Mercedez sells a self-driven level 3 autonomous car where they even insure the driver/car, but it's pretty expensive. Tesla has the numbers, but not a single car that can do as much as the Mercedez. Tesla promises they can just push an update an everybody gets a self-driving car, but they've been saying that for... 7 years maybe?
whynotmaybe 2y ago
I can't suppress the strong feeling that they will, not by being technologically mature, but by easing a lot of regulations that are restraining them now. Especially with Tesla's Ceo soon to be a member of the government. Just like cars companies made jaywalking illegal or bought public transport companies to close them.
- archagon 2y ago
  Yes. I expect that self-driving Tesla accidents will be rapidly suppressed.

laluser 2y ago

Absolutely. Every country, state, city, county can enact their own regulations as they see fit. This is Uber rollout on steroids, imo. There are some many hurdles to making this happen even if the tech exists.

bigyikes 2y ago

The Waymo-Tesla duality is so fun. Tesla FSD already works everywhere, even on unpaved roads. It just doesn’t work as well as Waymo. Waymo works very well, just not in as many places as Tesla. You might bet on Waymo because they have a fully working product already, but I’m betting on Tesla because of the vast amount of training data they are collecting. There’s a bitter lesson here.

ra7 2y ago
Waymo works in 4 cities as a fully autonomous vehicle. Tesla works nowhere as a fully autonomous vehicle.
appletrotter 2y ago
I’m betting on waymo because they use lidar
- dawnerd 2y ago
  Well and because they actually have real self driving cars without a safety driver. Tesla doesn't have that and only has demoed it in very specific scenarios.
  - Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
    It's not that black-and-white. And those demos are VERY old at this point. I own a Tesla, though I don't own FSD, but this year, Tesla has given all cars a trial of FSD on two occasions. It works remarkably well. I backed out of my driveway, then enabled FSD and it drove all the way across Portland to a friend's place with zero intervention. It was about a 15 mile, 30 minute drive. It navigated neighborhood roads without markings and tons of cars parked on the curb. It got onto the freeway and navigated, including changing lanes to overtake slow traffic. Once I got to their place, I was able to tell it to automatically parallel park on the curb. As far as I'm concerned, Tesla has fulfilled their promise of full self driving. The "supervised" requirement is basically just being used as a legal loophole to avoid liability if it fails.

tapoxi 2y ago

I'm not going to get excited until this can drive in Boston/Cambridge. If it can navigate that nightmare (and not kill any cyclists) I'll be impressed with what self-driving cars can do. Bonus points if they can work in snow when sightlines are obscured.

tayo42 2y ago
is boston that much crazier then san francisco? ignoring snow for now. I hate driving in SF
- ghaff 2y ago
  Depends on the location. I don't like driving in SF especially but there are some areas of Boston that are pretty crazy if you're not used to them and don't intuitively know when to get over into some lane and aren't used to driving pretty aggressively at times.
  - AlotOfReading 2y ago
    It's worth keeping in mind that autonomous vehicles find different things challenging than humans do. Weird road shapes and knowing how to route into some lane is pretty straightforward with map data. It's the "normal" parts of driving like predicting other road users that are more difficult.
    - ghaff 2y ago
      Totally fair. Things I might find challenging as a human unfamiliar with a given location (though GPS tends to help a lot) are probably different from an autonomous vehicle dealing with a lot of borderline crazy behavior by other cars, cyclists, and pedestrians darting out into traffic. A person also can just process so many inputs at once so you get into situations that are challenging in part because so much is going on.
- tapoxi 2y ago
  Boston doesn't have a grid system, lanes aren't marked, really weird and complex intersections, etc. This intersection is a local favorite, a backed-up lane off the highway onto a half-rotary that splits off into multiple directions: https://www.google.com/maps/@42.3560154,-71.1859078,17.52z?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTEwNi4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D https://www.google.com/maps/@42.3560154,-71.1859078,17.52z?e...

colechristensen 2y ago

In places that have real winters, there are going to be significant blocks of time where self-driving will never work unless real synthetic intelligence is reached. Way too much of this is developed in places that... don't have weather.

xnx 2y ago
Waymo is doing winter testing in Buffalo, NY.
fragmede 2y ago
When you stomp on the brakes in a reasonably new car that's skidding on ice and it makes a loud thunking noise, what is that, and what's controlling that system?
- colechristensen 2y ago
  ABS, "anti-lock brake system" It's been standard in cars for a long time. It's a really pretty simple system that ensures that your wheels aren't just completely stopped while you're braking hard on slick services. When the wheel's are completely stopped there's less friction than when they're still rolling near the speed of the road. Also when your wheels are locked steering is nearly impossible, but you do have directional control while they're still rolling. Some of the systems are more advanced than others, but the basic version just compares the speed of the wheels to each other.
  - fragmede 2y ago
    And this ay-bee-ess system is able to control the car and bring a car to a stop on snow and ice in way shorter a distance a human is able to, to the point that new drivers are taught to stomp on the brakes and let the computer control the brakes because it's able to do it better than an ordinary human; this system is controlled by computers? But then somehow driving on snow is going to be this total show stopper that is just utterly insurmountable gotcha for computers driving cars? Nevermind that crawl, walk, and then run/go out in the snow is a totally reasonable way to deliver a product, and that even if it never works in the snow, there's enough of the global that doesn't get snow (no thanks to global warming) that it's still a worthwhile investment, even if only to prevent drunk drivers from choosing to driving drunk during the summer months. Driving on snow is just an exercise in modeling friction in a computer and which way the car will go given available sensor input. Self driving cars don't innately have a concept of friction the same way a human with feet does, and they're able to drive on static asphalt, and also snow, with some training. Human drivers should practice driving in the snow in a parking lot to understand how the car slips and slides and grips operates under those conditions before taking to the road. (It's also fun!) I'm sure it'll take a lo of doing to winterize the sensor packages and for the software to work well enough to be reliable when there's just snow on the ground that hasn't been plowed recently, nevermind when it's actively snowing. But personally I think it's a when and not if as to whether or not self driving taxis will ever hit New England. (No guess as to a specific timeframe though, lol.)

moduspol 2y ago

Of course. We're still there with the horses -> cars transition. There are still plenty of places that horses can get to but cars can't. And similarly: the transition will also go in the other direction. We'll start making roads and navigation easier for self-driving cars and prioritize the destinations we care about the most. At the tail end of the transition, there will still be areas with ridiculous intersections and confusing rules that only humans can do. We just won't care about them as much by then because everything we do care about is reachable by self-driving cars.

gamblor956 2y ago
Roads are already easy to drive. We already have signs on roads directing people to the most prioritized destinations. And now we have navigation apps that can even provide turn-by-turn and lane-by-lane directions. The issue is that most people simply ignore traffic rules when it is convenient to do so. We didn't redesign roads and navigation for taxis or rideshares, and we're not going to do that for self-driving cars either.
- moduspol 2y ago
  We absolutely do redesign roads when the existing design becomes suboptimal as indicated by an increased number of accidents or driver complaints. And we do sometimes have lanes specifically for buses / taxis, too. We already do this stuff, and we won't need to rebuild 99% of roads. It's the "less than 1%" that are already tricky for normal humans that might need a rework. Or self-driving cars will just take suboptimal routes, if those roads / intersections aren't the only ways to important destinations.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- bobthepanda 2y ago
  This depends on where you are. Where I live in Seattle, they have rolled out significantly more 5-30 minute loading only zones on former street parking to deal with the uptick in rideshares and food/parcel deliveries, because the alternative is a bunch of illegal double parking.

sigmar 2y ago

Slow rollout? Waymo's growth has been insane the past year. Log graph: https://x.com/brianwilt/status/1851366713507344742/photo/1 https://x.com/brianwilt/status/1851366713507344742/photo/1

Stedag 2y ago
Good point. At 2 trips per day for 300M Americans over 7 days, that would put the rideshare takeover at ~4.2Bn. If we extrapolated based on the referenced graph and exponential growth, that would put the takeover at 2029 :) Its safe to assume that the limiting factors will soon become sourcing of components of the perception and control stacks.
- sigmar 2y ago
  Yeah, I wonder how much money they're pouring into lidar production. Particularly considering that they've partnered with Hyundai, Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz Group AG, Jaguar Land Rover, and Volvo.
  - fragmede 2y ago
    And Uber. https://waymo.com/blog/2024/09/waymo-and-uber-expand-partnership/ https://waymo.com/blog/2024/09/waymo-and-uber-expand-partner...
fragmede 2y ago
In terms of geographic area. It's still only open to the public in three places, with Austin on wait-list status.