6 ms·

SpaceX is doing ridiculously well, but that doesn't mean all of Musk's bets are equally smart. So far he seems to be terribly wrong on self-driving.

zimpenfish 2y ago
> So far he seems to be terribly wrong on self-driving. Don't forget the colonisation of Mars. He's even more wrong on that one.
- bigfatkitten 2y ago
  If he wants to make his 2026 Mars promise, he needs to be ready to go in the next month or so. I'm a bit sceptical.
- vixen99 2y ago
  On the other hand, if we shortly discover an asteroid on course to meet Earth within a concerning time frame or some other predictable disaster coming down the pike, they'll be a mass effort to take giant steps to ensure he and others are not wrong.
  - zimpenfish 2y ago
    > some other predictable disaster coming down the pike I mean, we have one of those right now (that we've known about since at least the 1980s) and ... > they'll be a mass effort to take giant steps That isn't happening. And climate change is an easy thing to deal with compared with the colonisation of Mars.
chii 2y ago
musk's track record of bets is 4 out of 6[0] - a pretty good one. [0]: the successful bets: paypal, tesla, spacex, starlink. Failures: twitter, self-driving. To be determined: ai.
- cmrdporcupine 2y ago
  paypal was not his success. he didn't start it, he just got pulled into a merger, and he had to be forced out of the company before it could succeed.
  - nailer 2y ago
    He started X and the merged company was called Paypal / X for a time.
    - red-iron-pine 2y ago
      and then he launched a bunch of dumbass initiatives, and Peter Thiel power-played him out, and ditched "X". his real victory was surviving long enough to make money from the merger and not get totally fleeced on the way out. and given the number of Russians using Starlink, I suspect it's a matter of time before his clearance is revoked and the US FedGov backs away further from SpaceX. wouldn't be surprised if there are ITAR violations there, too...
      - nailer 2y ago
        People can and will get their hands on technology and just as before Musk will continue to turn it off when they’re revealed. Are you alleging that Musk is conspiring to assist the Russians?
davedx 2y ago
They’re doing well in spite of Musk, not because of him. Shotwell is running that company not him.
- sebstefan 2y ago
  >CEO of Rocket Company named Gwynne Shotwell That's an entry on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aptronym https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aptronym if I've ever seen one
  - carabiner 2y ago
    Lol everyone is thinking she's CEO when she's COO: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41807408 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41807408 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41230320 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41230320 also confuses the name/gender, Glenn vs. Gwynne https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39614912 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39614912 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38863528 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38863528
- IshKebab 2y ago
  Do you have any actual evidence of that, or is it something you like the idea of because it's difficult to accept that Musk is a real arsehole and total idiot about some things (e.g. steering wheels, divers), yet also a very successful engineer (yes) at other things (rockets, electric car platforms). This tweet directly contradicts you: https://x.com/lrocket/status/1845486565591798164 https://x.com/lrocket/status/1845486565591798164
  - mavhc 2y ago
    There's a simple rule, if Musk founded the company and it does well then it doesn't matter that he founded the company. (SpaceX) However if Musk didn't found the company and it does well, then that's a very important thing. (Tesla)
    - ywvcbk 2y ago
grecy 2y ago
> So far he seems to be terribly wrong on self-driving. Like all breakthroughs, he will be terribly wrong right up to the point he isn’t (see the fail compilation video of failed Falcon9 landings) You only fail when you give up.
- roca 2y ago
  Nothing that happens in the future can negate the fact that he promised autonomous driving would available in Telsas by now (actually long before now), and it isn't. Tesla can never be the first to large-scale autonomous driving since Waymo is already delivering it. Sure, Tesla will probably deliver it eventually. Whether they can overtake Waymo's rollout is the open question.
  - vardump 2y ago
    Waymo is hardly large scale.
    - roca 2y ago
      100,000 trips a week meets some reasonable definition of "large scale".
  - grecy 2y ago
    > Nothing that happens in the future can negate the fact that he promised autonomous driving would available in Telsas by now (actually long before now), and it isn't. Absolutely, he is well known for setting extremely optimistic stretch goal timelines, and is almost always late. In virtually every case he is still years or decades before the competition, with autonomous driving being the biggest miss to date. He certainly does deliver though. Given that Tesla are currently making 2 million cars per year and have 5 million on the road, I think it extremely likely they will have by far the biggest autonomous fleet.
ninetyninenine 2y ago
You're out of touch with reality. I'm not a fan of everything musk says but you're not clear about how ludicrous it is to catch a rocket with chopsticks. You're only going off your gut feeling from social media and popular opinion. This is the reality. Musk made bets that have a lower chance of success then winning the lottery. If even one of the bets succeeds it means he's smarter than normal. That being said, Musk has succeeded in way more than one bet.
- consteval 2y ago
  Right, and I'm not understanding how this means FSD doesn't currently suck. Because it does. I'm sure Musk is smart, or at least ambitious, but that doesn't mean your Tesla is gonna be able to drive itself.
  - ninetyninenine 2y ago
    I never said that. I said "let him go all in."
    - TulliusCicero 2y ago
      No one's stopping him. We're just pointing out that some of the bets are clearly stupid.
      - ninetyninenine 2y ago
        and I'm pointing out that this guy made stupid bets and succeeded on an inordinate amount of those stupid bets.
- TulliusCicero 2y ago
  > You're out of touch with reality. I'm not a fan of everything musk says but you're not clear about how ludicrous it is to catch a rocket with chopsticks. You're only going off your gut feeling from social media and popular opinion. Not sure what you're getting at here. I just praised SpaceX, but you're acting like I downplayed its success.

zimpenfish 2y ago

> So far he seems to be terribly wrong on self-driving. Don't forget the colonisation of Mars. He's even more wrong on that one.

bigfatkitten 2y ago
If he wants to make his 2026 Mars promise, he needs to be ready to go in the next month or so. I'm a bit sceptical.
vixen99 2y ago
On the other hand, if we shortly discover an asteroid on course to meet Earth within a concerning time frame or some other predictable disaster coming down the pike, they'll be a mass effort to take giant steps to ensure he and others are not wrong.
- zimpenfish 2y ago
  > some other predictable disaster coming down the pike I mean, we have one of those right now (that we've known about since at least the 1980s) and ... > they'll be a mass effort to take giant steps That isn't happening. And climate change is an easy thing to deal with compared with the colonisation of Mars.

chii 2y ago

musk's track record of bets is 4 out of 6[0] - a pretty good one. [0]: the successful bets: paypal, tesla, spacex, starlink. Failures: twitter, self-driving. To be determined: ai.

cmrdporcupine 2y ago
paypal was not his success. he didn't start it, he just got pulled into a merger, and he had to be forced out of the company before it could succeed.
- nailer 2y ago
  He started X and the merged company was called Paypal / X for a time.
  - red-iron-pine 2y ago
    and then he launched a bunch of dumbass initiatives, and Peter Thiel power-played him out, and ditched "X". his real victory was surviving long enough to make money from the merger and not get totally fleeced on the way out. and given the number of Russians using Starlink, I suspect it's a matter of time before his clearance is revoked and the US FedGov backs away further from SpaceX. wouldn't be surprised if there are ITAR violations there, too...
    - nailer 2y ago
      People can and will get their hands on technology and just as before Musk will continue to turn it off when they’re revealed. Are you alleging that Musk is conspiring to assist the Russians?

davedx 2y ago

They’re doing well in spite of Musk, not because of him. Shotwell is running that company not him.

sebstefan 2y ago
>CEO of Rocket Company named Gwynne Shotwell That's an entry on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aptronym https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aptronym if I've ever seen one
- carabiner 2y ago
  Lol everyone is thinking she's CEO when she's COO: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41807408 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41807408 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41230320 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41230320 also confuses the name/gender, Glenn vs. Gwynne https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39614912 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39614912 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38863528 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38863528
IshKebab 2y ago
Do you have any actual evidence of that, or is it something you like the idea of because it's difficult to accept that Musk is a real arsehole and total idiot about some things (e.g. steering wheels, divers), yet also a very successful engineer (yes) at other things (rockets, electric car platforms). This tweet directly contradicts you: https://x.com/lrocket/status/1845486565591798164 https://x.com/lrocket/status/1845486565591798164
- mavhc 2y ago
  There's a simple rule, if Musk founded the company and it does well then it doesn't matter that he founded the company. (SpaceX) However if Musk didn't found the company and it does well, then that's a very important thing. (Tesla)
  - ywvcbk 2y ago

grecy 2y ago

> So far he seems to be terribly wrong on self-driving. Like all breakthroughs, he will be terribly wrong right up to the point he isn’t (see the fail compilation video of failed Falcon9 landings) You only fail when you give up.

roca 2y ago
Nothing that happens in the future can negate the fact that he promised autonomous driving would available in Telsas by now (actually long before now), and it isn't. Tesla can never be the first to large-scale autonomous driving since Waymo is already delivering it. Sure, Tesla will probably deliver it eventually. Whether they can overtake Waymo's rollout is the open question.
- vardump 2y ago
  Waymo is hardly large scale.
  - roca 2y ago
    100,000 trips a week meets some reasonable definition of "large scale".
- grecy 2y ago
  > Nothing that happens in the future can negate the fact that he promised autonomous driving would available in Telsas by now (actually long before now), and it isn't. Absolutely, he is well known for setting extremely optimistic stretch goal timelines, and is almost always late. In virtually every case he is still years or decades before the competition, with autonomous driving being the biggest miss to date. He certainly does deliver though. Given that Tesla are currently making 2 million cars per year and have 5 million on the road, I think it extremely likely they will have by far the biggest autonomous fleet.

ninetyninenine 2y ago

You're out of touch with reality. I'm not a fan of everything musk says but you're not clear about how ludicrous it is to catch a rocket with chopsticks. You're only going off your gut feeling from social media and popular opinion. This is the reality. Musk made bets that have a lower chance of success then winning the lottery. If even one of the bets succeeds it means he's smarter than normal. That being said, Musk has succeeded in way more than one bet.

consteval 2y ago
Right, and I'm not understanding how this means FSD doesn't currently suck. Because it does. I'm sure Musk is smart, or at least ambitious, but that doesn't mean your Tesla is gonna be able to drive itself.
- ninetyninenine 2y ago
  I never said that. I said "let him go all in."
  - TulliusCicero 2y ago
    No one's stopping him. We're just pointing out that some of the bets are clearly stupid.
    - ninetyninenine 2y ago
      and I'm pointing out that this guy made stupid bets and succeeded on an inordinate amount of those stupid bets.
TulliusCicero 2y ago
> You're out of touch with reality. I'm not a fan of everything musk says but you're not clear about how ludicrous it is to catch a rocket with chopsticks. You're only going off your gut feeling from social media and popular opinion. Not sure what you're getting at here. I just praised SpaceX, but you're acting like I downplayed its success.