9 ms·

The EV evolution is going to take longer than we thought

44 points by rntn 2y ago

bearjaws 2y ago
I was hoping on this would be a deep dive on how energy delivery wouldn't be able to keep up with demand. I've been wondering how we could ever handle everyone plugging in a 1-10kwh charger at home every night for potentially hours. Think about charging a fleet of Rivian delivery vans... Not to mention the insane chargers required for semi-trucks.
- kwhitefoot 2y ago
  > how we could ever handle everyone plugging in a 1-10kwh charger at home every night for potentially hours. The UK National Grid has published several papers on the subject and their conclusion is that already planned expansion of both grids and generating capacity is more than sufficient. Here in Norway more than 20% of private cars, large numbers of buses, ferries, and heavy good vehicles are already electric and there has been no significant impact on the ability of the grid to supply the power. The big grocery distributor, Asko, in Oslo has three quarters of it's local vehicles electrified already and generates all the electricity they need with the 8 800 panels on the roof of the warehouse. They now have eighty Scania 45R electric heavy good vehicles with 450 kW (610 HP) continuous power, 624 kWh batteries, 44 tonne total weight. As William Gibson said: The future's here already. It's just unevenly distributed. See these web pages. They are in Norwegian but Google Translate does a good job. https://elbil.no/asko-drifter-transporten-via-oslos-storste-solcelleanlegg/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nyhetsbrev-1-0524#msdynttrid=A5dbjStpFWwrMDsYlm135COwt_gKkBq9HOeihwGIKEE https://elbil.no/asko-drifter-transporten-via-oslos-storste-... https://elbil.no/verdenspremiere-hos-asko-for-elektrisk-gigant-lastebil/ https://elbil.no/verdenspremiere-hos-asko-for-elektrisk-giga...
  - mytailorisrich 2y ago
    In the UK, production of electricity is not controlled by National Grid. They are basing their claim that everything will be fine on forecasts and targets, e.g. targets for offshore wind which were set by the government. Delivery is down to private companies in auctions. I don't know what the current situation is but the September 2023 auction notoriously attracted no bid. There is zero guarantee that any targets will be met as things stand.
- stavros 2y ago
  How do we handle everyone filling up their tanks every night now?
  - jazzyjackson 2y ago
    We move gasoline around by burning gasoline (well, diesel)
    - stavros 2y ago
      Right, but how do we handle everyone refueling every single night? The answer is we don't, because not everyone refuels at once, but bearjaws asked "how we could ever handle everyone plugging in a 1-10kwh charger at home every night for potentially hours", which is equally invalid.
      - Ferret7446 2y ago
        Gas is a lot more energy dense. Most people absolutely need to charge an EV every day because the range sucks. I'm a little incredulous you're asking this, because range has always been one of the top concerns for EVs.
        stavros 2y ago
        I forgot this is the US, where you probably drive for an hour to get to work. Over here, people don't drive more than 50km a day.
  - scott_w 2y ago
    It’s a different challenge. Batteries are simply less energy dense than petrol or diesel, so most people don’t need to fill up on a daily basis. If you want an answer to your question: look at what happens during fuel scarcity scares (like in the UK in 2020/2021ish). The answer is “we don’t.”
- locococo 2y ago
  It will take some time but we already managed to build infrastructure to have gas to fill up our cars wherever we go. I don't think this will be very difficult to do for electric cars.
  - Animats 2y ago
    Yes. If the solid-state battery people deliver, we get 9-minute charging. Then chargers can replace gas pumps on a one for one basis.
- jjtheblunt 2y ago
  Based on my 10 years of driving electric in the US, charging at home mostly, I want to note the following. Because many vehicles do _not_ drive far on most days, even charging on ubiquitous 120v wall sockets replenishes electricity spent on those normal days easily. Since 240v is common in the US, with no special requirements on pre-existing grid (everyone has stoves and dryers at 240v, for example) it's still easy to recharge after longer than normal driving days, overnight.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - bearjaws 2y ago
    FWIW I have owned a Tesla since 2017 and I charge at home from a standard wall outlet. Where I live most commutes are 25 miles a day, or almost an entire overnight to charge. That is 7 hours of charging, per day if you drive a Model Y. Regardless of your charging schedule, the power has to come from a local transformer and will be ADDITIONAL to the current load on the grid, you can wait 5 days but that just means more load for longer. Transformers are typically 450kwh to 900kwh, and the power company matches capacity to demand. This means adding another ~100kwh to your neighborhood in overnight charging not only adds to the power plant, but also all the infrastructure along the way, and most notably your transformer(s). That is why I am curious about a deep dive, if we really want to go all electric, what all has to be upgraded? What is a reasonable schedule for a local utility and how much are we going to pay. And then you add in the road trips and superchargers...
- dreamcompiler 2y ago
  Part of the answer is "PV is very cheap." Batteries less so, but daytime PV charging at workplaces and Tesla superchargers is a thing, and home charging at night with PV and a Powerwall (or equivalent) is too. This is not the whole story but it contributes to why the grid doom and gloom predictions are taking longer to come true.
xnx 2y ago
Article doesn't even mention 100% US tariffs on imports of Chinese vehicles.
- Animats 2y ago
  Right. US auto manufacturers are terrified of the popular US$25,000 electric cars from China. Those are reportedly good cars, too, comparable to Tesla's low-end model.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - nradov 2y ago
    Good by what definition? Would they meet IIHS Top Safety Pick criteria? https://www.iihs.org/ratings/about-our-tests https://www.iihs.org/ratings/about-our-tests
    - Animats 2y ago
      BYD Seal Euro NCAP crash test videos. 5 stars.[1] NCAP rates some Teslas higher, and some BMWs lower. So it's in the safety range for overpriced luxury cars. IIHS hasn't tested the BYD Seal yet, because it's not sold in the US. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jxOt6mL6FQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jxOt6mL6FQ
Animats 2y ago
This is too US-centric. Here's some data for other regions.[1] Worldwide, about 20% of new cars are electric. The EU and UK are above 20%. The US is only around 10%. China is at 40% and climbing rapidly. The advanced countries are going electric rapidly. So are countries willing to import large numbers of cars from China. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales
- SubiculumCode 2y ago
  I think it will change, but the fact is, the U.S.A. is so darn big, and so EV range is super important to Americans. This is also seen when comparing how much Amerians drive compared to Europeans. Americans drive about twice as many miles per capita annually than EU citizens [1], which is probably related to more distant commutes in the US.. [2], e.g. average commute in 2014 was 8.79 km in the U.S., but 5.03 km Germany, and 1.68 km in France. But also, The USA is big, and we are more likely to travel by car and further than those in other countries. This is all to say, that adoption in America will go up, but only as electric cars improve their range. [1] https://frontiergroup.org/resources/fact-file-americans-drive-most/ https://frontiergroup.org/resources/fact-file-americans-driv... [2] https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Transport/Commute/Distance https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Transport/Co...
  - kwhitefoot 2y ago
    If your commute is only 9 km each way then every EV now sold will do a a whole week or perhaps two of commuting plus shopping, etc., on a single charge. The 16 kmiles/year quoted by the Frontier Group is not really all that much. It's an average of only 70 km per day. I know several people personally who commute daily further than that here in Norway and I see plenty of people doing it in EVs. Again most current EVs can do at least four days of that on a single charge. Certainly my ancient 2015 Tesla S70D can and most newer cars have more range. The mean distance probably obscures a distribution which includes a minority that drives far more than the average, it would be interesting to know the median distance too. I've just returned to Norway from France in my Tesla. It was 2 700 km (almost 1 700 miles) and charging was not a problem.
SubiculumCode 2y ago
I love my Bolt EUV, and I don't even need a fast charger to maintain my daily commute. Its always sitting at a nice 150 miles in the tank (about 60% charge, to not stress the battery). Since I own the solar that came with my house, the charging is ultra cheap, if not effectively zero...I know that its practically paying that car payment for all the gasoline I'm not buying.
- efields 2y ago
  Tesla owner here going on 5 years. I barely scratched 45k miles recently. Battery still can do 300 miles if I want, but I also keep it around 65%. I easily save $1k/year on gas (the app has the estimates). I’ve put on new tires and that’s the only maintenance thus far. I’m bringing her in for body work out of vanity, but it’s not costing me more than $1k with Tesla insurance (ymmv); I’m guessing a body panel and a hood will be replaced. There are a million reasons to chose car x over y, but I don’t see any reason why I shouldn’t have this vehicle for at least another decade.
  - LtWorf 2y ago
    > Battery still can do 300 miles if I want Estimated 300 miles and actually doing 300 miles is not the same thing.
  - SubiculumCode 2y ago
    Nice! I was spending about $350 dollars per month in gas driving in our Honda Odyssey. I got the 2023 Bolt EUV with 17k miles $300/month which now is used for over 90% of our commutes. It feels like a new vehicle for free. I have a level 2 charger in a box that I need to install, but so far the 12 volt charger has pretty much kept up...but my wife and I tend to need to drive more after the kids start school, so we will see if I can just return that charger or not.
- alexose 2y ago
  I have a regular Bolt, and it's just the best car... so easy to drive, and efficient enough that miles are basically free. I'd never go back to an ICE car, even with all the issues around public charging.
dirtdobber 2y ago
I own a EV and I love it. But it was pretty expensive (60K+) and from what I've seen, the trade-in value for my car is effectively half of what I bought it for after just 1 year of ownership. I'm not complaining too much since I plan to keep this car until the wheels fall off anyways, but it does seem like the accelerated depreciation of EVs versus gasoline cars is a good reason not to buy at the moment. EDIT: I should clarify, my vehicle is a PHEV. I couldn't commit to giving up gasoline given the added convenience of being able to quickly fill up on gas for long road trips. That being said, I drive less than 10K miles a year and probably only use ~1 tank of gas every 2 months.
- lnsru 2y ago
  After calculating fuel vs. electricity costs and analyzing my driving patterns I got pure BEV. I have real 200 miles highway winter range and it’s ok for my trips. It’s very important to do some basic research and don’t trust 400 miles WLTP range advertising. I would call this advertising basically a scam. A road trip with one charging stop is no big deal.
  - dirtdobber 2y ago
    My car only gets 26 miles to the charge, which, believe it or not, is more than enough for my daily use (I live within 5 miles of my work). That being said, I'm not actually convinced that I'm saving money when I look at my electricity cost vs cost of gasoline. Still, the added convenience of just plugging in when I get home and hardly ever having to stop at a gas station is nice.
    - lnsru 2y ago
      Have electricity cost of <7€ now for 100 km. Petrol cost was close to 20€. Plus I save a lot on repairs. Previous car was old and I got tired of lying under it. I guess car choice and calculation behind it is very individual. I never wanted Tesla, but got best trade—in conditions there.
      - 2y ago
fpoling 2y ago
The article mentioned that plug-in hybrids slow down pure EV transition. But that is kind of expected. It is strictly cheaper to make a car that can drive on a battery 30 km and then switch to gasoline than a pure EV that can drive 500 km and it will be so for few more years.
- thescriptkiddie 2y ago
  Is it? Well comparing 30 km range to 500 km almost certainly, but what about comparing 30 km to 150 km? Plug-in hybrids basically have two complete drivetrains in one car, which adds a lot of additional complexity, weight, and cost. A large enough battery will still be more expensive, but as battery prices come down the crossover point gets pushed up. I predict that eventually both plug-in hybrids and traditional hybrids will make no economic sense, and there will only remain ICEs and full EVs.
  - jazzyjackson 2y ago
    The Toyota hybrid system is substantially less complex than a typical ICE. there are no belts, no clutch, no alternator, the ICE engine is a direct drive into a planetary gear set splitting power with the traction motor, with the power ratio modulated by a second smaller electric motor It's basically the best of both worlds, and not at all "two complete drivetrains"
    - thescriptkiddie 2y ago
      The Prius power split device is indeed very clever and I think that making a plug-in hybrid version of the Prius was a good idea. However at present the Prius Prime (44 mi range) sells for $33k, the regular (non- plug-in) Prius sells for $28k, and the Nissan Leaf (149 mi range) sells for $29k.
  - fpoling 2y ago
    I suspect that an electrical car with a range of just 150km using the latest battery technology is already cheaper to manufacture than ICE. But triple the capacity and the cost of extra drivetrain will be cheaper.
trhway 2y ago
The current 21700 batteries is something like 250Wh/kg (just shy of Tesla's 270Wh/kg or so) and cost (looking at AliExpress) $125/KWh retail. So a current Chinese car with 50-100KWh has 200-400Kg battery at the cost of $6000-12000 (and if that 100KWh battery with typical sustained 4C (ie. 400KW power), peak 10C, is paired with a 400-600KW electric engine under $15-20K - that is luxury/exotic car territory). Comparing to ICE drivetrain there is only one conclusion - the ICE is inevitably going to be pushed out of the mainstream into a niche player ( even Formula-1 is hybrid already). The US tariffs will delay that a bit, yet the writing is on the wall - nobody can go against such an economic paradigm shift.
- lnsru 2y ago
  Consumers are not rational. Range anxiety is a thing. And there are some mystical forces pushing weird news about electric vehicles constantly. Popular ones: you’ll freeze in your car in traffic jam in winter. No repair shop can work on electrical vehicles. They burn every other day. And so on.
  - trhway 2y ago
    >Consumers are not rational. Definitely, how could otherwise hundreds of millions be convinced to ride 15-25 gallon gasoline bombs :) It seems that there are already 100kwh+ batteries in the work for 500 miles range. My favorite though have been series hybrids, and I predicted here a decade ago that such hybrids with specially built/tuned engines will dominate the market as the best of both worlds. Seems I’ve been wrong about the wide market, still hope for the niches.
megaman821 2y ago
I think we have already reached an inflection point. The automakers may be able to protect their US auto share gas vehicles for years to come, but what do their finances look like when everywhere else goes electric? Can they service their debt in a market where the share of gas cars goes down every year from here on out?
jmclnx 2y ago
If in the US you want EV adoption, raise Gas Prices a lot, maybe double/triple them. Then you will see adoption. Subsidizes will never work, cost is the main d river. Fossil Fuel vehicles are still looked as cheaper and always will be until the cost hits the pocket book. Plus the cost of new EVs should be less than fossil fuel cars.
kkfx 2y ago
[flagged]

44 points by rntn 2y ago

I was hoping on this would be a deep dive on how energy delivery wouldn't be able to keep up with demand. I've been wondering how we could ever handle everyone plugging in a 1-10kwh charger at home every night for potentially hours. Think about charging a fleet of Rivian delivery vans... Not to mention the insane chargers required for semi-trucks.

kwhitefoot 2y ago
> how we could ever handle everyone plugging in a 1-10kwh charger at home every night for potentially hours. The UK National Grid has published several papers on the subject and their conclusion is that already planned expansion of both grids and generating capacity is more than sufficient. Here in Norway more than 20% of private cars, large numbers of buses, ferries, and heavy good vehicles are already electric and there has been no significant impact on the ability of the grid to supply the power. The big grocery distributor, Asko, in Oslo has three quarters of it's local vehicles electrified already and generates all the electricity they need with the 8 800 panels on the roof of the warehouse. They now have eighty Scania 45R electric heavy good vehicles with 450 kW (610 HP) continuous power, 624 kWh batteries, 44 tonne total weight. As William Gibson said: The future's here already. It's just unevenly distributed. See these web pages. They are in Norwegian but Google Translate does a good job. https://elbil.no/asko-drifter-transporten-via-oslos-storste-solcelleanlegg/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nyhetsbrev-1-0524#msdynttrid=A5dbjStpFWwrMDsYlm135COwt_gKkBq9HOeihwGIKEE https://elbil.no/asko-drifter-transporten-via-oslos-storste-... https://elbil.no/verdenspremiere-hos-asko-for-elektrisk-gigant-lastebil/ https://elbil.no/verdenspremiere-hos-asko-for-elektrisk-giga...
- mytailorisrich 2y ago
  In the UK, production of electricity is not controlled by National Grid. They are basing their claim that everything will be fine on forecasts and targets, e.g. targets for offshore wind which were set by the government. Delivery is down to private companies in auctions. I don't know what the current situation is but the September 2023 auction notoriously attracted no bid. There is zero guarantee that any targets will be met as things stand.
stavros 2y ago
How do we handle everyone filling up their tanks every night now?
- jazzyjackson 2y ago
  We move gasoline around by burning gasoline (well, diesel)
  - stavros 2y ago
    Right, but how do we handle everyone refueling every single night? The answer is we don't, because not everyone refuels at once, but bearjaws asked "how we could ever handle everyone plugging in a 1-10kwh charger at home every night for potentially hours", which is equally invalid.
    - Ferret7446 2y ago
      Gas is a lot more energy dense. Most people absolutely need to charge an EV every day because the range sucks. I'm a little incredulous you're asking this, because range has always been one of the top concerns for EVs.
      - stavros 2y ago
        I forgot this is the US, where you probably drive for an hour to get to work. Over here, people don't drive more than 50km a day.
- scott_w 2y ago
  It’s a different challenge. Batteries are simply less energy dense than petrol or diesel, so most people don’t need to fill up on a daily basis. If you want an answer to your question: look at what happens during fuel scarcity scares (like in the UK in 2020/2021ish). The answer is “we don’t.”
locococo 2y ago
It will take some time but we already managed to build infrastructure to have gas to fill up our cars wherever we go. I don't think this will be very difficult to do for electric cars.
- Animats 2y ago
  Yes. If the solid-state battery people deliver, we get 9-minute charging. Then chargers can replace gas pumps on a one for one basis.
jjtheblunt 2y ago
Based on my 10 years of driving electric in the US, charging at home mostly, I want to note the following. Because many vehicles do _not_ drive far on most days, even charging on ubiquitous 120v wall sockets replenishes electricity spent on those normal days easily. Since 240v is common in the US, with no special requirements on pre-existing grid (everyone has stoves and dryers at 240v, for example) it's still easy to recharge after longer than normal driving days, overnight.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- bearjaws 2y ago
  FWIW I have owned a Tesla since 2017 and I charge at home from a standard wall outlet. Where I live most commutes are 25 miles a day, or almost an entire overnight to charge. That is 7 hours of charging, per day if you drive a Model Y. Regardless of your charging schedule, the power has to come from a local transformer and will be ADDITIONAL to the current load on the grid, you can wait 5 days but that just means more load for longer. Transformers are typically 450kwh to 900kwh, and the power company matches capacity to demand. This means adding another ~100kwh to your neighborhood in overnight charging not only adds to the power plant, but also all the infrastructure along the way, and most notably your transformer(s). That is why I am curious about a deep dive, if we really want to go all electric, what all has to be upgraded? What is a reasonable schedule for a local utility and how much are we going to pay. And then you add in the road trips and superchargers...
dreamcompiler 2y ago
Part of the answer is "PV is very cheap." Batteries less so, but daytime PV charging at workplaces and Tesla superchargers is a thing, and home charging at night with PV and a Powerwall (or equivalent) is too. This is not the whole story but it contributes to why the grid doom and gloom predictions are taking longer to come true.

xnx 2y ago

Article doesn't even mention 100% US tariffs on imports of Chinese vehicles.

Animats 2y ago
Right. US auto manufacturers are terrified of the popular US$25,000 electric cars from China. Those are reportedly good cars, too, comparable to Tesla's low-end model.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- nradov 2y ago
  Good by what definition? Would they meet IIHS Top Safety Pick criteria? https://www.iihs.org/ratings/about-our-tests https://www.iihs.org/ratings/about-our-tests
  - Animats 2y ago
    BYD Seal Euro NCAP crash test videos. 5 stars.[1] NCAP rates some Teslas higher, and some BMWs lower. So it's in the safety range for overpriced luxury cars. IIHS hasn't tested the BYD Seal yet, because it's not sold in the US. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jxOt6mL6FQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jxOt6mL6FQ

Animats 2y ago

This is too US-centric. Here's some data for other regions.[1] Worldwide, about 20% of new cars are electric. The EU and UK are above 20%. The US is only around 10%. China is at 40% and climbing rapidly. The advanced countries are going electric rapidly. So are countries willing to import large numbers of cars from China. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales

SubiculumCode 2y ago
I think it will change, but the fact is, the U.S.A. is so darn big, and so EV range is super important to Americans. This is also seen when comparing how much Amerians drive compared to Europeans. Americans drive about twice as many miles per capita annually than EU citizens [1], which is probably related to more distant commutes in the US.. [2], e.g. average commute in 2014 was 8.79 km in the U.S., but 5.03 km Germany, and 1.68 km in France. But also, The USA is big, and we are more likely to travel by car and further than those in other countries. This is all to say, that adoption in America will go up, but only as electric cars improve their range. [1] https://frontiergroup.org/resources/fact-file-americans-drive-most/ https://frontiergroup.org/resources/fact-file-americans-driv... [2] https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Transport/Commute/Distance https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Transport/Co...
- kwhitefoot 2y ago
  If your commute is only 9 km each way then every EV now sold will do a a whole week or perhaps two of commuting plus shopping, etc., on a single charge. The 16 kmiles/year quoted by the Frontier Group is not really all that much. It's an average of only 70 km per day. I know several people personally who commute daily further than that here in Norway and I see plenty of people doing it in EVs. Again most current EVs can do at least four days of that on a single charge. Certainly my ancient 2015 Tesla S70D can and most newer cars have more range. The mean distance probably obscures a distribution which includes a minority that drives far more than the average, it would be interesting to know the median distance too. I've just returned to Norway from France in my Tesla. It was 2 700 km (almost 1 700 miles) and charging was not a problem.

SubiculumCode 2y ago

I love my Bolt EUV, and I don't even need a fast charger to maintain my daily commute. Its always sitting at a nice 150 miles in the tank (about 60% charge, to not stress the battery). Since I own the solar that came with my house, the charging is ultra cheap, if not effectively zero...I know that its practically paying that car payment for all the gasoline I'm not buying.

efields 2y ago
Tesla owner here going on 5 years. I barely scratched 45k miles recently. Battery still can do 300 miles if I want, but I also keep it around 65%. I easily save $1k/year on gas (the app has the estimates). I’ve put on new tires and that’s the only maintenance thus far. I’m bringing her in for body work out of vanity, but it’s not costing me more than $1k with Tesla insurance (ymmv); I’m guessing a body panel and a hood will be replaced. There are a million reasons to chose car x over y, but I don’t see any reason why I shouldn’t have this vehicle for at least another decade.
- LtWorf 2y ago
  > Battery still can do 300 miles if I want Estimated 300 miles and actually doing 300 miles is not the same thing.
- SubiculumCode 2y ago
  Nice! I was spending about $350 dollars per month in gas driving in our Honda Odyssey. I got the 2023 Bolt EUV with 17k miles $300/month which now is used for over 90% of our commutes. It feels like a new vehicle for free. I have a level 2 charger in a box that I need to install, but so far the 12 volt charger has pretty much kept up...but my wife and I tend to need to drive more after the kids start school, so we will see if I can just return that charger or not.
alexose 2y ago
I have a regular Bolt, and it's just the best car... so easy to drive, and efficient enough that miles are basically free. I'd never go back to an ICE car, even with all the issues around public charging.

dirtdobber 2y ago

I own a EV and I love it. But it was pretty expensive (60K+) and from what I've seen, the trade-in value for my car is effectively half of what I bought it for after just 1 year of ownership. I'm not complaining too much since I plan to keep this car until the wheels fall off anyways, but it does seem like the accelerated depreciation of EVs versus gasoline cars is a good reason not to buy at the moment. EDIT: I should clarify, my vehicle is a PHEV. I couldn't commit to giving up gasoline given the added convenience of being able to quickly fill up on gas for long road trips. That being said, I drive less than 10K miles a year and probably only use ~1 tank of gas every 2 months.

lnsru 2y ago
After calculating fuel vs. electricity costs and analyzing my driving patterns I got pure BEV. I have real 200 miles highway winter range and it’s ok for my trips. It’s very important to do some basic research and don’t trust 400 miles WLTP range advertising. I would call this advertising basically a scam. A road trip with one charging stop is no big deal.
- dirtdobber 2y ago
  My car only gets 26 miles to the charge, which, believe it or not, is more than enough for my daily use (I live within 5 miles of my work). That being said, I'm not actually convinced that I'm saving money when I look at my electricity cost vs cost of gasoline. Still, the added convenience of just plugging in when I get home and hardly ever having to stop at a gas station is nice.
  - lnsru 2y ago
    Have electricity cost of <7€ now for 100 km. Petrol cost was close to 20€. Plus I save a lot on repairs. Previous car was old and I got tired of lying under it. I guess car choice and calculation behind it is very individual. I never wanted Tesla, but got best trade—in conditions there.
    - 2y ago

fpoling 2y ago

The article mentioned that plug-in hybrids slow down pure EV transition. But that is kind of expected. It is strictly cheaper to make a car that can drive on a battery 30 km and then switch to gasoline than a pure EV that can drive 500 km and it will be so for few more years.

thescriptkiddie 2y ago
Is it? Well comparing 30 km range to 500 km almost certainly, but what about comparing 30 km to 150 km? Plug-in hybrids basically have two complete drivetrains in one car, which adds a lot of additional complexity, weight, and cost. A large enough battery will still be more expensive, but as battery prices come down the crossover point gets pushed up. I predict that eventually both plug-in hybrids and traditional hybrids will make no economic sense, and there will only remain ICEs and full EVs.
- jazzyjackson 2y ago
  The Toyota hybrid system is substantially less complex than a typical ICE. there are no belts, no clutch, no alternator, the ICE engine is a direct drive into a planetary gear set splitting power with the traction motor, with the power ratio modulated by a second smaller electric motor It's basically the best of both worlds, and not at all "two complete drivetrains"
  - thescriptkiddie 2y ago
    The Prius power split device is indeed very clever and I think that making a plug-in hybrid version of the Prius was a good idea. However at present the Prius Prime (44 mi range) sells for $33k, the regular (non- plug-in) Prius sells for $28k, and the Nissan Leaf (149 mi range) sells for $29k.
- fpoling 2y ago
  I suspect that an electrical car with a range of just 150km using the latest battery technology is already cheaper to manufacture than ICE. But triple the capacity and the cost of extra drivetrain will be cheaper.

trhway 2y ago

The current 21700 batteries is something like 250Wh/kg (just shy of Tesla's 270Wh/kg or so) and cost (looking at AliExpress) $125/KWh retail. So a current Chinese car with 50-100KWh has 200-400Kg battery at the cost of $6000-12000 (and if that 100KWh battery with typical sustained 4C (ie. 400KW power), peak 10C, is paired with a 400-600KW electric engine under $15-20K - that is luxury/exotic car territory). Comparing to ICE drivetrain there is only one conclusion - the ICE is inevitably going to be pushed out of the mainstream into a niche player ( even Formula-1 is hybrid already). The US tariffs will delay that a bit, yet the writing is on the wall - nobody can go against such an economic paradigm shift.

lnsru 2y ago
Consumers are not rational. Range anxiety is a thing. And there are some mystical forces pushing weird news about electric vehicles constantly. Popular ones: you’ll freeze in your car in traffic jam in winter. No repair shop can work on electrical vehicles. They burn every other day. And so on.
- trhway 2y ago
  >Consumers are not rational. Definitely, how could otherwise hundreds of millions be convinced to ride 15-25 gallon gasoline bombs :) It seems that there are already 100kwh+ batteries in the work for 500 miles range. My favorite though have been series hybrids, and I predicted here a decade ago that such hybrids with specially built/tuned engines will dominate the market as the best of both worlds. Seems I’ve been wrong about the wide market, still hope for the niches.

megaman821 2y ago

I think we have already reached an inflection point. The automakers may be able to protect their US auto share gas vehicles for years to come, but what do their finances look like when everywhere else goes electric? Can they service their debt in a market where the share of gas cars goes down every year from here on out?

jmclnx 2y ago

If in the US you want EV adoption, raise Gas Prices a lot, maybe double/triple them. Then you will see adoption. Subsidizes will never work, cost is the main d river. Fossil Fuel vehicles are still looked as cheaper and always will be until the cost hits the pocket book. Plus the cost of new EVs should be less than fossil fuel cars.

kkfx 2y ago

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