4 ms·

Why create a round trip space craft, when you can build and discard two one-way craft for twice the price? (At first I didn't think this could really work, unt

Why create a round trip space craft, when you can build and discard two one-way craft for twice the price? (At first I didn't think this could really work, until I realized the second craft could have been towed up by the first.) Incredible kudos to SpaceX, when you consider its comparable competitors repeatedly fumble (Boeing), move slow (Blue Origin), lost their edge (Russia), fidget spinner themselves out of relevance (ULA, Arianespace, Orbital Sciences), whiffed (Sea Launch), or very "successfully" build, launch and discard fortunes (er, flights) for the purpose of justifying those same flights (er, fortunes) (NASA). Kudos to China too for some prolonged and relatively rapid progress. It will be interesting to see how that progress continues given the "Coolish War" we are now in.

fredgrott 2y ago
only one problem with that narrative.... SpaceX has had the same exact cost overruns as Boeing.... Its a repeat of the space shuttle argument...which failed dramatically bigger in both costs and human deaths.
- schiffern 2y ago
  >the same exact cost overruns Tell me when SpaceX had to repeat an entire ISS test flight on their own dime because the first one was such a disaster? Boeing charged twice as much as SpaceX,[1] but at the time it was justified because Boeing was considered the "safe" option. How times change! [1] https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/boeing-warns-of-more-financial-losses-on-starliner-commercial-crew-program/ https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/boeing-warns-of-more-f...
- Nevermark 2y ago
  > SpaceX has had the same exact cost overruns as Boeing Numbers? Boeing's partially accounted for cost overruns are quite hard to read. Their meter needs a pause button. Anyway, the relevant issue is net cost. SpaceX is currently going deeply negative unbounded. I.e. net profitable for customer launches.
- glzone1 2y ago
  Except crew dragon is half the price and has flown repeatedly. SpaceX absolutely has had lots of test failures - they've probably blown up more rockets then many recent players - but their cadence is super quick, and their cost per item far far lower and they seem to be able to fix stuff.
  - Alupis 2y ago
    Do we actually know, as fact, that SpaceX is making a profit on these flights?
    - asadotzler 2y ago
      The current contract charges NASA about $280 million per Crew Dragon mission. The F9 costs SpaceX about $20 million to launch, so as long as refurbishing a Dragon costs less than $260 million dollars, yes, SpaceX is making a profit on these flights.
    - jtriangle 2y ago
      Somebody does, but it's a private company, so, private books, so the general public doesn't know. You can do some napkin math and guess that their flights for NASA are profitable, along with all the other commercial work they do. We don't know if SpaceX as a whole is profitable, but, I'd assume it's not given how heavily they're into R&D at this point. What is reasonably certain is that they likely will be profitable once they're not spending crazy amounts of money on development if their cost per kg is actually realized.
      - Alupis 2y ago
        Right, so the point was all this handwaviness about how bloated Boeing's costs are in this space are just wild guesses at what SpaceX's might be. For all anyone actually knows, Elon is willing to lose a ton per launch just to gain mindshare, kill the competition, and become the only game in town. You know, the Amazon playbook. For all anyone knows, the Boeing quotes are reasonable and SpaceX's are unsustainable. Nobody actually knows... yet so many are willing to confidently assert SpaceX is obviously cheaper. > What is reasonably certain is that they likely will be profitable once they're not spending crazy amounts of money on development This is a space race. The day when SpaceX no longer needs to spend "crazy amounts of money on development" may never actually come.
- DennisP 2y ago
  Since SpaceX is a private company, neither of us knows how much SpaceX spent internally on their fixed-price contract. What we do know is that NASA awarded contracts to both companies in 2010. Crew Dragon worked perfectly on their first crewed flight in 2020, and has taken astronauts to ISS half a dozen times. NASA paid SpaceX the originally agreed amount of $3.1 billion for six flights, and SpaceX seems happy to continue the arrangement. Boeing has spent $6.7 billion so far. https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/boeing-warns-of-more-financial-losses-on-starliner-commercial-crew-program/ https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/boeing-warns-of-more-f...
  - asadotzler 2y ago
    >Crew Dragon worked perfectly on their first crewed flight in 2020, and has taken astronauts to ISS half a dozen times. 9 times so far, and it'll be 10 times in about a month.
    - cruffle_duffle 2y ago
      …knock on wood…
  - TMWNN 2y ago
    >What we do know is that NASA awarded contracts to both companies in 2010. Crew Dragon worked perfectly on their first crewed flight in 2020, and has taken astronauts to ISS half a dozen times. More detail for others: SpaceX and Boeing each signed contracts as part of the Commercial Crew program for six operational manned missions. After SpaceX fulfilled its six, NASA awarded another contract for eight more. Meanwhile, in addition to Boeing being paid substantially much for its half of the program, the company received a $300 million special, uncontracted payment in 2016 (not disclosed until 2019) to further accelerate development. The current Starliner flight in abeyance at ISS is a pre-operational manned test mission (SpaceX's equivalent was done in May 2020). In other words, Boeing has not yet begun its six operational missions!
- Diederich 2y ago
  > SpaceX has had the same exact cost overruns as Boeing.... Why do you believe this is the case?
- asadotzler 2y ago
  No they have not. SpaceX received fixed price contracts at lower prices than Boeing's and then delivered on those contracts, ferrying 7 full crews and one test crew to and from ISS with an 8th full crew about to return and a 9th soon launching, all with no additional charges. Boeing has charged hundreds of millions above and beyond the fixed price contract and has yet to deliver and return astronauts from ISS on a single completed mission.
trust_bt_verify 2y ago
I don’t understand why those who praise space-x also take the time to bad mouth nasa. They are basically teammates here. Space-x has done some great things (kudos to Shotwell) but they did it on the shoulders of nasa and government funding, and that’s ok too.
- lumost 2y ago
  SpaceX's finances are also largely unknown, they could be burning more money than NASA on experimental flights.
  - 7e 2y ago
    This. Elon’s entire MO is to lose more money than competitors, then raise more in the markets. Rise, repeat, claim successes, when in reality competitors just aren’t willing to lose that much money bootstrapping. SpaceX is no different.
  - nopzor 2y ago
    while it’s true that spacex is a private company, it’s widely known that they are highly profitable. they have many institutional investors, and a long line of people that would love to be on their cap table.
    - basementcat 2y ago
      SpaceX has not yet turned an annual profit. They have recently denied their own shareholder employees access to company financial statements. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/08/27/despite-rare-profit-spacex-still-mostly-loses-cash/ https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/08/27/despite-rare-profi...
      - nopzor 2y ago
        the article you linked to is more than a year old, and does acknowledge that at the time spacex was flirting with profitability. do you contend that they are not currently “profitable”? also, many (maybe most?) privste companies deny employees who have options access to complete company financial statements.
orwin 2y ago
Kinda like current Arianespace current development though. Definitely would have put them in the 'move slow' category with Blue Origin. I think I like BO current tech better but Arianespace produce public, peer-reviewed research that other will be able to build on (right now it seems they're closing on non-hydrogen fuels)
nocoiner 2y ago
I assume your first paragraph was a direct tribute to H.R. Hadden’s first rule of government spending?
- a1o 2y ago
  Sorry for sending a reply to a different message, but I got imgpls Safari extension to work on Iphone. in settings, you need to go to Safari and there in extensions, in there beyond enabling imgpls there's also a menu at the bottom where it says "websites content and history" and you should find both imgur and reddit. Instead of ask, switch both to "allow". It will work then!

fredgrott 2y ago

only one problem with that narrative.... SpaceX has had the same exact cost overruns as Boeing.... Its a repeat of the space shuttle argument...which failed dramatically bigger in both costs and human deaths.

schiffern 2y ago
>the same exact cost overruns Tell me when SpaceX had to repeat an entire ISS test flight on their own dime because the first one was such a disaster? Boeing charged twice as much as SpaceX,[1] but at the time it was justified because Boeing was considered the "safe" option. How times change! [1] https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/boeing-warns-of-more-financial-losses-on-starliner-commercial-crew-program/ https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/boeing-warns-of-more-f...
Nevermark 2y ago
> SpaceX has had the same exact cost overruns as Boeing Numbers? Boeing's partially accounted for cost overruns are quite hard to read. Their meter needs a pause button. Anyway, the relevant issue is net cost. SpaceX is currently going deeply negative unbounded. I.e. net profitable for customer launches.
glzone1 2y ago
Except crew dragon is half the price and has flown repeatedly. SpaceX absolutely has had lots of test failures - they've probably blown up more rockets then many recent players - but their cadence is super quick, and their cost per item far far lower and they seem to be able to fix stuff.
- Alupis 2y ago
  Do we actually know, as fact, that SpaceX is making a profit on these flights?
  - asadotzler 2y ago
    The current contract charges NASA about $280 million per Crew Dragon mission. The F9 costs SpaceX about $20 million to launch, so as long as refurbishing a Dragon costs less than $260 million dollars, yes, SpaceX is making a profit on these flights.
  - jtriangle 2y ago
    Somebody does, but it's a private company, so, private books, so the general public doesn't know. You can do some napkin math and guess that their flights for NASA are profitable, along with all the other commercial work they do. We don't know if SpaceX as a whole is profitable, but, I'd assume it's not given how heavily they're into R&D at this point. What is reasonably certain is that they likely will be profitable once they're not spending crazy amounts of money on development if their cost per kg is actually realized.
    - Alupis 2y ago
      Right, so the point was all this handwaviness about how bloated Boeing's costs are in this space are just wild guesses at what SpaceX's might be. For all anyone actually knows, Elon is willing to lose a ton per launch just to gain mindshare, kill the competition, and become the only game in town. You know, the Amazon playbook. For all anyone knows, the Boeing quotes are reasonable and SpaceX's are unsustainable. Nobody actually knows... yet so many are willing to confidently assert SpaceX is obviously cheaper. > What is reasonably certain is that they likely will be profitable once they're not spending crazy amounts of money on development This is a space race. The day when SpaceX no longer needs to spend "crazy amounts of money on development" may never actually come.
DennisP 2y ago
Since SpaceX is a private company, neither of us knows how much SpaceX spent internally on their fixed-price contract. What we do know is that NASA awarded contracts to both companies in 2010. Crew Dragon worked perfectly on their first crewed flight in 2020, and has taken astronauts to ISS half a dozen times. NASA paid SpaceX the originally agreed amount of $3.1 billion for six flights, and SpaceX seems happy to continue the arrangement. Boeing has spent $6.7 billion so far. https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/boeing-warns-of-more-financial-losses-on-starliner-commercial-crew-program/ https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/boeing-warns-of-more-f...
- asadotzler 2y ago
  >Crew Dragon worked perfectly on their first crewed flight in 2020, and has taken astronauts to ISS half a dozen times. 9 times so far, and it'll be 10 times in about a month.
  - cruffle_duffle 2y ago
    …knock on wood…
- TMWNN 2y ago
  >What we do know is that NASA awarded contracts to both companies in 2010. Crew Dragon worked perfectly on their first crewed flight in 2020, and has taken astronauts to ISS half a dozen times. More detail for others: SpaceX and Boeing each signed contracts as part of the Commercial Crew program for six operational manned missions. After SpaceX fulfilled its six, NASA awarded another contract for eight more. Meanwhile, in addition to Boeing being paid substantially much for its half of the program, the company received a $300 million special, uncontracted payment in 2016 (not disclosed until 2019) to further accelerate development. The current Starliner flight in abeyance at ISS is a pre-operational manned test mission (SpaceX's equivalent was done in May 2020). In other words, Boeing has not yet begun its six operational missions!
Diederich 2y ago
> SpaceX has had the same exact cost overruns as Boeing.... Why do you believe this is the case?
asadotzler 2y ago
No they have not. SpaceX received fixed price contracts at lower prices than Boeing's and then delivered on those contracts, ferrying 7 full crews and one test crew to and from ISS with an 8th full crew about to return and a 9th soon launching, all with no additional charges. Boeing has charged hundreds of millions above and beyond the fixed price contract and has yet to deliver and return astronauts from ISS on a single completed mission.

trust_bt_verify 2y ago

I don’t understand why those who praise space-x also take the time to bad mouth nasa. They are basically teammates here. Space-x has done some great things (kudos to Shotwell) but they did it on the shoulders of nasa and government funding, and that’s ok too.

lumost 2y ago
SpaceX's finances are also largely unknown, they could be burning more money than NASA on experimental flights.
- 7e 2y ago
  This. Elon’s entire MO is to lose more money than competitors, then raise more in the markets. Rise, repeat, claim successes, when in reality competitors just aren’t willing to lose that much money bootstrapping. SpaceX is no different.
- nopzor 2y ago
  while it’s true that spacex is a private company, it’s widely known that they are highly profitable. they have many institutional investors, and a long line of people that would love to be on their cap table.
  - basementcat 2y ago
    SpaceX has not yet turned an annual profit. They have recently denied their own shareholder employees access to company financial statements. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/08/27/despite-rare-profit-spacex-still-mostly-loses-cash/ https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/08/27/despite-rare-profi...
    - nopzor 2y ago
      the article you linked to is more than a year old, and does acknowledge that at the time spacex was flirting with profitability. do you contend that they are not currently “profitable”? also, many (maybe most?) privste companies deny employees who have options access to complete company financial statements.

orwin 2y ago

Kinda like current Arianespace current development though. Definitely would have put them in the 'move slow' category with Blue Origin. I think I like BO current tech better but Arianespace produce public, peer-reviewed research that other will be able to build on (right now it seems they're closing on non-hydrogen fuels)

nocoiner 2y ago

I assume your first paragraph was a direct tribute to H.R. Hadden’s first rule of government spending?

a1o 2y ago
Sorry for sending a reply to a different message, but I got imgpls Safari extension to work on Iphone. in settings, you need to go to Safari and there in extensions, in there beyond enabling imgpls there's also a menu at the bottom where it says "websites content and history" and you should find both imgur and reddit. Instead of ask, switch both to "allow". It will work then!