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Does Astrology Work?
- razodactyl 2y agoTl;dr: the conclusion is exactly as expected.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- poulpy123 2y agono
- yoavm 2y ago"Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
- lukan 2y agoExcept that 3 actual studies about it, turned out to have a different result: "A 2016 study of a sample of academic journals (not news publications) that set out to test Betteridge's law and Hinchliffe's rule (see below) found that few titles were posed as questions and of those, few were yes/no questions and they were more often answered "yes" in the body of the article rather than "no".[12] A 2018 study of 2,585 articles in four academic journals in the field of ecology similarly found that very few titles were posed as questions at all, with 1.82 percent being wh-questions and 2.15 percent being yes/no questions. Of the yes/no questions, 44 percent were answered "yes", 34 percent "maybe", and only 22 percent were answered "no".[13] In 2015, a study of 26,000 articles from 13 news sites on the World Wide Web, conducted by a data scientist and published on his blog, found that the majority (54 percent) were yes/no questions, which divided into 20 percent "yes" answers, 17 percent "no" answers and 16 percent whose answers he could not determine."
- beardyw 2y agoYou should update Wikipedia!
- surgical_fire 2y ago"Can headlines that ends in a question mark be answered by the word no?" That would be a great headline.
- nurettin 2y agoIt works as an entertainment/grift industry.
- lukan 2y agoIt also gives some people a sense of safety (by the illusion of being able to make sense of events).
- bell-cot 2y agoYes - something which many people are desperate for. And astrology, generally, is far less harmful than most of the alternatives.
- lukan 2y agoNot sure about that. If people are convinced they are not getting along with another person because they are "lion" and then never do a real analysis of their communication failures, then I see a lot of harm for all the people around them, usually children.
- SwiftyBug 2y agoIf someone, even the ones who believe in astrology, believe it works that way, that's a problem with the person, not with astrology. Astrology doesn't state that x and y alone don't go well together. It points the struggles and harmonies between two sets of highly complex birth charts. Disclaimer: I don't believe in astrology, but I know a little about its ground rules.
- xenospn 2y agoAs does religion.
- beardyw 2y agoLet's call it art.
- Euphorbium 2y agoAstrology is just calendar. People born a certain time of the year have been exposed to similar conditions when developing, therefore have similar traits. Large scale epigenome analysis could quantify this, but there is no money in this research.
- minkles 2y agoI think that's working on a lot of assumptions. The null hypothesis would be that there are no trait differences between people born at different times of the year and that would need to be disproven. However it would be interesting to see if there are real manifestations of trait change from the bias of believing this.
- sshine 2y agoThat is such a Capricorn thing to say.
- xenospn 2y agoAugust is a completely different time of year in Singapore vs Newfoundland. There are no similarities.
- Euphorbium 2y agoI think different places have different local astrology traditions.
- satisfice 2y agoI am a Gemini. That means my purpose is to develop the technology of operating spacecraft in Earth orbit prior to the Apollo program.
- thunderbong 2y agoThe test given to the astrologers https://programs.clearerthinking.org/astrology_challenge.html https://programs.clearerthinking.org/astrology_challenge.htm...
- EPWN3D 2y agoNo.
- Mathnerd314 2y agotl;dr No, it doesn't work - statistically it's identical to random guessing.
- SkyBelow 2y agoIs it equal to random guessing (which isn't fully random) or closer to true randomness? If the latter, can we use it as a PRNG? "Now powered by Astrology" branding, for markets where it would increase sales.
- voidUpdate 2y agoCan we use spiritual randomness to power our AI products, to maximise marketing crap?
- pavlov 2y agoAstrological predictions on the blockchain seeding an AI model.
- WaffleIronMaker 2y agoKinda? It makes me think of Randonautica: > Randonautica (a portmanteau of "random" + "nautica") is an app launched on February 22, 2020 founded by Auburn Salcedo and Joshua Lengfelder. It randomly generates coordinates that enable the user to explore their local area and report on their findings. According to its creators, the app is "an attractor of strange things," letting one choose specific coordinates based on a certain theme. It gained controversy after a report of two teenagers coincidentally finding a corpse while using the app. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randonautica https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randonautica
- voidUpdate 2y agoThat sounds fun. Reminds me of GeoHashing (https://www.xkcd.com/426/ https://www.xkcd.com/426/)
- Cthulhu_ 2y ago
- staminade 2y agoMy personal astrological projection is that none of the astrologers who criticised the original study, designed the new survey, or participated in the experiment will accept the validity of its results.
- LoKSET 2y agoDupe: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41208252 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41208252
- LadyCailin 2y ago1, duh, 2, this won’t change anyone who believes in this’s mind, 3, neat study, it’s nice to have data for 1.
- AnonC 2y agoI’d be interested in the views of professional as well as hobby astrologers who are on HN.
- andrepd 2y agoWhy? Would you ask a snake oil salesman his views on the benefits of snake oil? :)
- Cthulhu_ 2y agoSure, that's the scientific method / debate; person A says snake oil does not work, person B says it does, let's have it out.
- giraffe_lady 2y agoA relevant historical fact here is that the reason the snake oil salesman is a fraud isn't because snake oil is ineffective, but that what he's selling isn't snake oil.
- Dylan16807 2y agoIf say it's both with snake oil. And we see both in the study. The charts can't predict anyone and the claim of even having a consistent system falls apart.
- gwervc 2y agoYes. My current girlfriend told me that her father forbade her to marry before a given age, because this was a recommandation of the astrologer who chose her current name. I met her at that current age. Another prediction was done 6 years before, that said she will meet an exceptional man by 2024 but also that she will have to go back in her country on that year. Since we met this year and she considers me an exceptional man, she believes I'm the guy of the prophecy. However, because the first part of the prediction is true, she's quite stressed about the second part. Based on those two data points, Taiwanese fortune tellers seems to be quite on point. I'll revise my judgement in the future based on if she had to go back or not (I'll follow her anyway).
- AndrewKemendo 2y agoIf astrology people understood science they wouldn’t be astrologists Glad we have something to point to finally as a reference
- CuriouslyC 2y agoThe problem is all the "scientific" fields that are nearly as high on the bullshit quotient as astrology that we stubbornly continue to defend.
- meroes 2y agoCan we pinpoint a specific decade this happened or is it a slow process? Because if we count CS as a science, I’m seeing it become just like the worst of the sciences in this regard. AI has really gotten me pessimistic. There’s so much borrowing from other subjects since there are now models for every subject and every grade level, which ultimately will become products for large corporations. Like maybe we should hire at least one full time linguist, mathematician, chemist, logician, etc to sit high in the chain behind each of the respective models. I’m seeing a lot of faux rigor because it’s moving lightning speed.
- CuriouslyC 2y agoI've only had an inside view of academia since the mid aughts, but it was already a well established issue then with departments trying to institute p-hacking controls and citation rings being a known thing. I think a big part of why it's exploding so hard is the scarcity of academic jobs combined with the big push to increase STEM PhD production leaving people to a cutthroat competition, where you have to either cheat or be absolutely brilliant to have a real shot at a tenured position.
- Dylan16807 2y agoWhich fields do you have in mind, other than... doctors, apparently?
- 2y ago
- Eumenes 2y agoLets do animal sacrifices next. Are the auguries true? We need a data driven approach to analyzing entrails.
- SkyBelow 2y agoCan't wait to see that IRB proposal. Do you think it would be able to pass at all? Maybe limit it to sacrificing invertebrates?
- Jean-Papoulos 2y agoFinally, a study about the accuracy of randomness.
- mihaic 2y agoThere's a famous study that found that hockey players are statistically more likely to be born in certain months, due to them being the biggest in their year-groups, which created a self-fulfilling cycles of attention from coaches. Reinterpreted, if you're an Aquarius, you're 50% more likely than an Aries to get into the NHL[1]. So, I guess I do sometimes believe in astrology, it's just very rarely better than random. [1] https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/birth-month-totals/nhl-players-career-stats.html https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/birth-month-totals/nhl-playe...
- Mathnerd314 2y agoArguably, birth date and astrology are only tangentially related. Iirc I looked into it and there was little empirical evidence for 12 groups, it is more like 4 groups spring/summer/fall/winter.
- oblio 2y agoI think it was a joke. The statistical factor is actually age: the older kids perform better because they're more grown up (physically bigger, mentally more developed). So if you set a cut off point at September, for example, kids born just after September: October, November, December, will be the biggest ones. For example for an age group covering up to 11 years old in September 2024, the kids that are 10 years and 9/10/11 months old (so born in October, November, December 2013) will statistically be the best players of their group.
- 101008 2y agoI know you are being ironic, but for those that don't, this is completely unrelated to Astrology and more to how we break kids/teens in age categories (sorry, I don't know the proper terms for this in English). Which, by the way, may be different from country to country due to terms/calendars, etc.
- tgv 2y agoIs that astrology or just the time of year? I.e., is the cause the position of a planet projected onto the plane perpendicular to your position at birth or some process with a strong 1/year frequency component?
- giraffe_lady 2y ago"Astrology is the mother of science" is a great quote and more or less historically accurate too. We should not be ashamed of the origins of science being in astrology and alchemy, they were important steps on the way.
- delichon 2y agoI'm afraid that several modern social "sciences" are not distinguished from astrology or alchemy by their epistemic rigor. Shame seems appropriate there.
- giraffe_lady 2y agoYes but sort of what I was getting at is that individual astrologers and alchemists accomplished impressive, and usefully true, feats despite the faultiness of their tools. And their tools were eventually refined into our tools, which are much more reliable though of course still not perfect. So who knows what we can get out of those easily disparaged modern sciences, or where they may eventually lead us. If those early pioneers had this view of their methods, had felt this sense of shame around them, where would we be?
- delichon 2y agoI would guess that shame has been a significant motivator in the evolution of astrology and alchemy into astronomy, chemistry and physics.
- giraffe_lady 2y agoSome of their personal writings are in the historical record so you don't have to guess really.
- _heimdall 2y agoThe comments here are extremely unhelpful. We get it, you think astrology is stupid and anyone that thinks it works is an idiot worth ostracizing. Now can we get on with comments actually diving deeper into the actual study in the OP?
- beardyw 2y agoIt's not exactly a HN topic is it?
- SteveNuts 2y ago> On-Topic: Anything that good hackers would find interesting. That includes more than hacking and startups. If you had to reduce it to a sentence, the answer might be: anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity. > Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, or celebrities, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic. I think this would fall under "anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity", even though most of us think it's bunk.
- beardyw 2y agoThanks for that. I will suggest that we modify it to: "anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity even though most of us think it's bunk." That will avoid a lot of problems!
- SteveNuts 2y agoThat seems like an ironically anti-scientific stance to take, not to mention a slippery slope to start moderating what people find interesting would introduce some serious bias.
- _heimdall 2y agoModerators would gave an extremely difficult task trying to sift through (a) what most of think is hunk and (b) the cases where most of us are actually wrong.
- i80and 2y agoObviously astrology does no better than random guessing, that's no surprise. But the fact that astrology had such low levels of agreement is a little interesting to me -- I guess I assumed there was some kind of underlying system to astrology, but I guess not! > Much to my surprise, astrologers had very low agreement with each other on the chart for each person. If astrologers picked charts at random, they would agree with each other 20% of the time. In our study, even the most experienced astrologers only agreed 28% of the time.
- swayvil 2y agoObviously disease is caused by a dwarf residing in the belly.
- shermantanktop 2y agoAn angry dwarf.
- woleium 2y agoKary Mullis (nobel laureate for discovering PCR, allowing DNA sequencing) disagrees in his book “dancing naked in the mindfield” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kary_Mullis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kary_Mullis
- christiangenco 2y agoI did a similar experiment with my sister a few years ago and got nearly identical results. We'd gotten into a discussion about how neither of us believe the explanation that astrology gives for how it works (that the position of the planets at the time of your birth influence your personality) but my sister thought a person's star sign might be a proxy for being born in a particular season which could reasonably affect someone's personality (ex: perhaps babies born in the winter share personality traits distinct from babies born in the summer). She also thought that given a list of people and descriptions of personality traits of star signs she could match them with better-than-chance accuracy. We made a list of ~10 people that she knew personally. I looked up their star signs and found a description of all 12 signs from an authoritative-looking astrology site. For each of the 10 people I gave her a choice of their actual star sign and two randomly picked star signs (determined and shuffled by an RNG). Random guessing would predict she'd have a 1/3rd chance of getting any individual person correct. She predicted she'd get ~7/10 correct. She got exactly 3/10.
- boesboes 2y agoNothing new or surprising was learned, the skeptics say 'see!' the 'believers' will disregard. And it's fine. Most people don't believe tarot cards are really some magical thing, it's just an interactive and creative way to get some random inspirational qoutes or text. It's either fitting and viewed a true, or not fitting and simply disregarded. I know it's all bs, but that doesn't mean it cannot be entertaining.
- rvnx 2y agoAnd if it is like placebo effect, it may actually work at some scale and may influence your choices. So, in that way it is real.
- crubier 2y agoWhat could go wrong with Astrology? "You will die of suicide this year".
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- jMyles 2y agoThe most insightful tarot draw I've had (out of maybe five in my life) was one where I forgot to shuffle a brand new pack of cards, so I got four of the same. I don't even recall which card it was, but it inspired careful examination of the archetype and how it fits with my life and decision-masking, lasting several days. Perhaps that's all magic really is.
- criddell 2y ago> Most people don't believe tarot cards are really some magical thing I think a lot of people have trouble with the idea that despite astrology not being accurate or grounded in science, it can still be useful for some of the people some of the time.
- TuringTest 2y ago
- tomek_ycomb 2y agoSo frame astrology type things as a randomization tool, that allows you to randomly navigate a set of questions and assessments to see how you're doing and feeling. Remember when we learned about how bone divination helped hunter gathers search random areas and not be stuck with the bias of hunting where you previously hunted too much? Kind of related. But, anyway, what I'm trying to say. I also feel like it's a snake oil scam and impossibly hard to avoid dishonesty at a random sample of astrologists. My random card reader really flipped my head around when they promised me my reading without knowing my question or answers. They asked me how I felt about my questions and some considerations I could take about the answer and outcome, based on my cards. They said it was a process to navigate your thoughts, not for future telling. And I was impressed enough at this reframing to want to try and convince a few other HN nerds to consider this point as well. Be upset about the scammers but don't miss the possibility there can be a nugget of value and process outside of what you're expecting. There tend to be reasons why people continue doing things across cultures and time (there's something they get value out of in it, usually)
- swayvil 2y agoAstrology is one of those techniques where the uninitiated ran away with the metaphors and turned it into a big LARP. Give it a thousand years and much of our science will look much the same.
- toss1 2y agoNice study! My conjecture on why astrology persists despite not working: it is the refinement of two very human traits, ambiguous statements and confirmation bias. Astrologers can leave just enough ambiguity in their statements so it seems definite but could be interpreted either way, and when actual events happen later on, confirmation bias (often accompanied with a desire to believe and be proven right) kicks in and "confirms" the result. Rinse, repeat, ad infinitum. To the degree it seems to provide a benefit by giving people the feeling that the chaotic world is explainable, perhaps it is a good thing, far less good than science and far better than flat-earth/Qanon style conspiracy theory worldviews. Science is a positive good, astrology somewhat harmless (aside from being wasteful & distracting from real science), and the flat-earth/Qanon conspiracy worldviews actively harmful. So, perhaps if astrology can be leveraged to pull people away from the conspiracy worldviews, it could be good? Although, if anything, the motion seems to be in the other direction.
- CuriouslyC 2y agoAstrology continues to exist because people like to have a cognitive frameworks that give them comfort and a feeling of control over the randomness in the world around them. That is why we still have religion, which is just as bullshit as astrology and way more toxic for society.
- aussieguy1234 2y agoRead up on cold reading and you'll find that it explains much of astrology, psychics, fortune tellers and others. Once you know the techniques you'll be able to recognise them pretty easily and you won't look at horoscopes the same way again (that is, if you ever believed them to begin with)
- muscomposter 2y agomy take is that astrology works because as kids growing up under the current offset between regular year and school years have a statistically similar experience given the time of the year they were born so I’m blaming the homogenity of school experience as a way to explain away the personality similarities between people sharing a “zodiac sign” i.e. born around the same time of the year but I do hope I got shadowbanned already
- CuriouslyC 2y agoAstrology works on people who really believe in astrology, because they internally reinforce behavior patterns to conform to their astrological predications. To be fair though, most doctors don't perform much better than these astrologers in my experience, and that's with billions of dollars in research, a quarter of a million dollar education and years of rigorous training. It turns out most people are incompetent and our science is worse than we think in a lot of cases.
- williamdclt 2y agoPerform better _at what_? I don’t think there’s a lot of overlap between what doctors and astrologers are trying to do
- soco 2y agoWorks at generating income for the astrologers, of course.
- CuriouslyC 2y agoDoctors are guessing with as much accuracy as astrologers. The difference is that when the doctor guesses right, the patient recovers and we praise the doctor as some sort of low grade messiah, and when an astrologer guesses right, we go "oh, lucky guess, cool."
- andrewla 2y ago> Astrology works Citation needed. Even agreement between the astrologers was low, which is a strong argument that it doesn't work even if you believe in it. That is, the patterns "predicted" by astrology simply do not exist; individuals cannot reliably reinforce their behavior based on expected behavior because there is no agreement on what the expected behavior is. > most doctors don't perform much better than these astrologers in my experience I mean, we've all had bad experiences with doctors, but this is comparing apples to wooden spheres painted red. I have had doctors successfully treat patients many times, including such things as prescribing antibiotics and succesfully delivering children.
- Ekaros 2y agoNow I want to run test if they are internally consistent. Give them all needed personal details and ask them to make prediction from that date to future. And then year later come back and ask them to do prediction from same point to future. Will these be the same or will they be different?
- freitzkriesler2 2y agoI'll admit, I have a fascination with Greco Roman antiquities and Hellenic /Roman astrology is one of them. To be able to enjoy the literature and culture of the era and the archetypes expressed, understanding how this all works helps a great deal. As such, I know a fair amount of astrology from a Greco Roman perspective and by extension all the way up to medieval astrology. Yeah plz I find it fascinating. With that said, the vast majority of western astrology is done using new age psychological nonsense that was literally made up by hippies during the 60s. It is completely divorced from the tradition that was developed and refined from the Chaldeans (aka Babylonians), Greeks, Arabs, and Europeans and as such doesn't make any sense against the system that was developed and refined over at least a thousand years. A good astrologer won't say with precision that X is going to happen (like you will meet the love of your life or pass the test), they'll give their predictions in archetypes and give a range of outcomes that fall under those archetypes. Take for example the meaning of the 9th house, the 9th house represents far away travel, religion, higher education, and publishing. These are all desperate subjects from one another and need to be considered in a predictoon against the backdrop of your life. Does it work? It's a bit like the weather, I can say this range of things under this archetype will happen on X date at X time. That's pretty much it. If you're interested in the subject, the best primer book I can recommend is the study office and fortune by Chris Brennan which can be found on Amazon in print and ebook format. It's written as a college level text with citations and will give you the historical background and practical foundations to understand the classical philosophy that underpins the basis of the tradition. Anywho, I expect a good roasting and some down d00ts for my interest in t is subject.
- Dylan16807 2y ago> A good astrologer won't say with precision that X is going to happen > Does it work? It's a bit like the weather, I can say this range of things under this archetype will happen on X date at X time. That's pretty much it. If it was like the weather, then it would predict the odds of specific things. Sitting on an archetype is like saying "it's summer" when you want to know if it's going to rain. > Anywho, I expect a good roasting and some down d00ts for my interest in t is subject. This line in particular deserves downvotes.
- jonwiseman 2y agoSo, yeah, but an interesting chunk of results: is the inter-rater agreement ACTUALLY random? (Not sure if this is formatted correctly, feel free to comment if you'd do these stats differently) from scipy.stats import binomtest # stats: {experience_level: (rate, num_in_group)} stats = { "lvl1": (20.5, 156), "lvl2": (22.2, 66), "lvl3": (23.3, 50), "lvl4": (21.2, 39), "lvl5": (20.8, 12), "lvl6": (28.3, 5), } for lvl, (rate, num) in stats.items(): num_tests = num * (num - 1) res = binomtest(int(rate * num_tests * 0.01), num_tests, 0.2, alternative="greater") # with multiple comparison correction with bonferroni print(f"{lvl}: p-value = {res.pvalue:.4f} {'*' if res.pvalue < 0.05 / 6 else ''}") print('* indicates p-value is < 0.05 after bonferroni correction') """ lvl1: p-value = 0.0276 lvl2: p-value = 0.0002 * lvl3: p-value = 0.0000 * lvl4: p-value = 0.1337 lvl5: p-value = 0.4826 lvl6: p-value = 0.3704 * indicates p-value is < 0.05 after bonferroni correction """ So maybe there's an internal consistency in how these people are trained, and maybe it's not completely dependent on skill level. This is assuming I read the https://www.clearerthinking.org/post/can-astrologers-use-astrological-charts-to-understand-people-s-character-and-lives-our-new-study-pu#:~:text=levels%20of%20experience.-,Note,-%3A%20For%20each%20astrological https://www.clearerthinking.org/post/can-astrologers-use-ast... part correctly.
- jonwiseman 2y agoErrata: this is probably not right, the pairwise trials aren't independent.
- hermannj314 2y agoI flip a coin during periods of indecisiveness and have built a silly lore around a God named Gamblor (yes, from the Simpsons) that punishes people that ask him to choose their fate through a coin toss and then don't follow through on his decree. As long as I am reasonable in what decisions I give to the altar of Gamblor, I find belief in him a net good for my life even though I realize no study would prove he has actual predictive abilities, it doesn't mean belief in him isn't a net positive. What's wrong with superstitions, belief in Santa Claus, or finding wisdom in the beauty of the stars? We are all just trying to get through life in a way that works for us.
- Ylpertnodi 2y agoGeorge Carlin: thou shalt keep thy god to thyself.
- andrewla 2y agoCareful here, Gamblor is a coyote spirit. It is as happy to jump you off a cliff as to have you choose the salad instead of the country fried steak. Of note on this subject is The Dice Man. [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dice_Man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dice_Man
- DamnInteresting 2y agoIn the mid-to-late 1800s, many prominent astronomers were pretty sure there was another planet inside the orbit of Mercury, because Mercury's orbit has a peculiar irregularity. They called this yet-to-be-properly-seen planet 'Vulcan', and it became a fixture in astrologers' horoscopes. In the early 20th century, Einstein came along with his Theory of General Relativity, and with these equations he demonstrated that the sun's gravity was bending spacetime in a way that perfectly accounted for Mercury's wobble. Vulcan was therefore found to be a myth, nonexistent.[1] Nevertheless, many astrologers still feature Vulcan in their horoscopes even today, over a century later.[2] The inclusion of an entirely fictional heavenly body seems to undermine any other conclusions drawn from planetary positions. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(hypothetical_planet) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(hypothetical_planet) 2: https://cosmicdeity.com/vulcan-astrology/ https://cosmicdeity.com/vulcan-astrology/
- zzo38computer 2y agoI think you are right. Sometimes fictitious planets are included in horoscopes, and this is one of the reasons why; some people continue to use it because some people included it in horoscopes in the past. There are others as well, such as the fictitious planets in the Hamburg astrology. I have also read that apparently some astrologers decided to exclude Pluto from horoscopes because the IAU no longer considers Pluto to be a planet. That isn't a valid reason; Pluto still has coordinates and therefore can still be plotted on a horoscope (fictitious planets (such as Vulcan) also have coordinates although in that case the coordinates are made up rather than being real coordinates). Sun and Moon are not considered planets by IAU but are included on a horoscope too. You might decide to remove Pluto in case you think there are too many planets in the horoscope, but what the IAU says is irrelevant to horoscopes. (The Earth is usually the centre of measurement of a horoscope (although sometimes the Sun is used instead, but this is less common), so it is implicitly included in a horoscope but cannot be one of the objects plotted on it (since the plotting uses angular coordinates, and the object at the centre obviously has no angular coordinates).)
- dredmorbius 2y agoThe story of Vulcan's hypothesized existence, and disproof by Einstein, was the title essay in a collection by Isaac Asimov, The Planet that Wasn't (1976): <https://thisweekatthelibrary.blogspot.com/2011/10/planet-that-wasnt.html https://thisweekatthelibrary.blogspot.com/2011/10/planet-tha...> <https://archive.org/details/planetthatwasnt0000asim https://archive.org/details/planetthatwasnt0000asim>
- usgroup 2y agoIt doesn't say where the 152 astrologers were sourced, does it? Or how they were qualified? Should astrology be a field with very many impostors, these results would not be unusual. Generally speaking I suspect it will be difficult to falsify astrology, but more importantly the onus is on the astrologer to prove their ability rather than for others to disprove it.
- tim333 2y ago"Does astrology work?" depends a bit on what you mean by "work". In terms of predicting the future, no. But probably most people do it to feel better about their lives. It may work from that point of view. You could compare it to finding a religion or seeing a shrink.
- dredmorbius 2y agoThere's a further means by which random selection methods can be useful (and the fact that the computing device you're reading this on all but certainly has a robust random-sequence generating capability speaks to this): random decisionmaking can avoid biases of rational or deterministic methods. There's a great essay discussing this posted a decade ago in Aeon, "How to choose? If you can’t choose wisely, choose randomly": <https://aeon.co/essays/if-you-can-t-choose-wisely-choose-randomly https://aeon.co/essays/if-you-can-t-choose-wisely-choose-ran...> Of course, if this is the true function of astrology, then random predictions would be working as designed. Though that's not what most people, astrology practitioners included, who take astrology seriously seem to believe.
- zzo38computer 2y agoAstrology is a method of divination that does not involve random selection. If you want to choose randomly, there are other methods of divination, that do involve random selection (e.g. cartomancy). Sometimes it does not matter that much if the method of divination involves random selection or not. And, sometimes it does not matter much if a pseudo random number generation is actually deterministic anyways. Sometimes these features are beneficial but sometimes not.
- dredmorbius 2y agoNot directly, true, but arguably indirectly. That is, any given astrological methodology has a fixed set of inputs (e.g., birth signs, ascribed qualities). Arbitrariness (I'm leaning away from "randomness") is introduced both by the subjects seeking an astronomical prediction, and by the application of signs, charts, and divinations by a given practitioner. If the results of TFA are to be believed, the results of this are randomness. Contrast with, say, the I Ching in which straws are used to create hexagrams which are then consulted from the I Ching itself, or Tarot in which cards are drawn (at random) and interpreted. I'm reminded of Suzanne Vega's song "Predictions", which is a compilation of divination methods: Let's tell the future Let's see how it's been done By numbers, by mirrors, by water By dots made at random on paper By salt, by dice By meal, by mice By dough of cakes By sacrificial fire By fountains, by fishes Writings in ashes Birds, herbs Smoke from the altar (etc.) <https://genius.com/Suzanne-vega-predictions-lyrics https://genius.com/Suzanne-vega-predictions-lyrics> <https://yewtu.be/watch?v=L7TklT11fA8 https://yewtu.be/watch?v=L7TklT11fA8> As to how astrology came to be associated with predictions, my suspicion (somewhat informed by reading though I can't find specific sources presently) is that astrology emerged from early astronomy which was principally associated with timekeeping and navigation, and could make predictions about regularly occurring events, such as the coming of floods on the Nile, or monsoon rains elsewhere, critical for early agricultural empires. A combination of factors probably made it useful for both astronomers/astrologers and rulers/priests to presume that other sorts of predictions could also be made: of military conquest, personal actions, and the like. The motives might have been comfort in making decisions, as a propaganda tool, or other tools of control. Belief in this may have been sincere (see the "Clever Hans" case), or hypocritical (practitioners / users were aware of the bogus nature but saw the pragmatic political use). Eventually the idea that the heavens influenced personal affairs on Earth came to be commonplace. Researching this response, I'm learning Ptolemy's Tetrabiblos is apparently the basis for much modern astrological divination practice. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetrabiblos https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetrabiblos>
- spacebacon 2y agoIf one knows enough of about sign systems it is totally possibly to discern a variety of generalized traits and behaviors. The correct study of complex meaning making is semiotics not astrology however semiotic analysis could be performed on astrology to dig deeper into its structure. https://github.com/space-bacon/Semiotic-Analysis-Tool https://github.com/space-bacon/Semiotic-Analysis-Tool
- prewett 2y agoIt must because their signs are all wrong because they didn't account for the precession of the earth's axis... /s https://www.livescience.com/4667-astrological-sign.html https://www.livescience.com/4667-astrological-sign.html
- zzo38computer 2y agoThis is a misunderstanding of astrology. Astrological signs are not the same as constellations, even though they are named the same as or similar than twelve of the thirteen constellations which cross the ecliptic. Astrological signs are measurement of ecliptic longitude, each one thirty degrees, starting with Aries. There are two intersection points between ecliptic and equator, so one of them will be called zero; specifically, it is the spring equinox in the north hemisphere. You will then usually specify the degrees past the sign, e.g. "0 Aries" is 0 degrees, and "3 Cancer" is 93 degrees. "Tropic of Cancer" and "Tropic of Capricorn" are not having to do with constellations; they have to do with the astrological signs of those names. When the ecliptic longitude of the Sun is at 0 Cancer then the Sun is over the Tropic of Cancer. (This assumes you are using the "tropical zodiac" which is based on the equinox of date. If you are using a "sidereal zodiac" with a specific ayanamsha (the word "ayanamsha" is a Sanskrit word denoting the amount of precession of equinoxes) then it is instead relative to a specific angle at a specific date.) So, their signs are not wrong, although you still cannot predict facts about people's lives and other stuff like most astrologers try to do, by the use of the astrological signs, and using the correct ones is no better than using the wrong ones. There are good arguments that can be made against astrology, but "the signs are all wrong" is not a valid one. Astrology does get the positions of objects correct as astronomy does, although to understand them you would have to understand the conventions in use, which are different than the conventions commonly used in modern astronomy. The dates commonly given for Sun signs in newspapers are approximately correct but are not exact. The exact dates (and times of day; not only the date) varies by year, and this is related to the reason why we have leap years.
- prewett 2y agoI'm not sure how the Tropics of Cancer/Capricorn got in this discussion, they are latitudes of the earth. I know nothing about astrology, but according to the article I posted your sign is the constellation the sun was "in" when you were born. I'm not clear how one would determine astronomically what sign the sun is in, given that the stars aren't visible when the sun is and it cross half the sky. Maybe it's the constellation just before sun up or just after sun down? Anyway, the earth's axis certainly precesses, so if you just take some ancient astrological information and apply it to modern dating, you're going to get the wrong sign.
- cdumler 2y agoMy wife likes astrology. I just put it as one of those quirks in people. This is especially curious because of just how intelligent she is. She has several degrees, including a PHD. Then, she pointed out something to me: something doesn't necessarily have to be true to have value. She uses astrology not in any predictive manor but as a qualitative evaluation. All of the signs have descriptions and ways to think about the character. For instance, Cancers tend to keep people out because the only thing that protects them from their soft, emotional insides is their shell. This makes them also tend to avoid direct conflict, which makes them move in sideways directions. However, if they interact, they don't have much more than claws, so they may pinch without knowing it. They also tend to find their place to bury and if kept happy will tend to stay where they are. If not, they tend to move on without creating a huge issue out it. I'm not going to suggest in any shape or form that A) all people born Cancers behave this way or B) planets have anything to do with causing this. What I am saying is: if you see someone acting with these traits, you can decide that maybe the reason why is because they're concerned about being hurt. I've learned to have a bit less judgement and a bit more grace in people now. Maybe people just have a difference view of priorities and not all motivations are spoken: * Aries - Brash, bold, and like taking the lead in situations. Also tend to be naïve and more morally black-and-white. * Taurus - Stubborn but reliable. Tend to value only what they find for themselves, ie "you can't lead a horse to water..". * Gemini - Appear as twins, because something is definitely _the best way_ until the next thing is _best way_. They're not flighty, just not that concerned with opportunity costs. * Cancer - Emotional and nurturing, doesn't want to be crushed. Tend stay where they are unless moved by discomfort, but won't tell you. * Leo - Confident, charismatic, and is concerned about accomplishments and family. Very loud more than anything else and can be pacified by stroking their mane. * Virgo - Detail-oriented and practical. Often perfectionists because they are comfortable with repeated process. Get uncomfortable unknowns, which makes them not want to complete projects. * Libra - Diplomatic and charming, value balance and harmony, but judge everything even if inappropriate. * Scorpio - Intense, passionate, but reserved. Often so reserved that people wonder if they are going to get stabbed when all the Scorpio is doing is being quiet on their rock in the sun and ignoring everyone. * Sagittarius - Adventurous and optimistic, they love exploring and new ideas. Shares stores and thoughts, often without considering if it is appropriate or not. * Capricorn - Ambitious and disciplined, focused on long-term goals, even if it is at the cost of ramming something through. Doesn't mean to be mean, but a challenge is hard to resist. * Aquarius - Independent and innovative, they march to the beat of their own drum. Big things can tank because "it seemed like a good idea at the time." * Pisces - Compassionate and dreamy, enjoys the ideas. Can be frustratingly non-concrete, but also have have spontaneously amazing insights. The one who points out "you know you could just..?" This is now stuff I think about before assigning malice to someone's actions or just brushing someone off who isn't thinking like me.
- rich_sasha 2y agoI find these studies a waste of time. If you disbelieve in astrology and believe in science, then this is or course what it will show you. If you believe in astrology, you probably also believe in some unfalsifiable statements about it and have reasons to not trust studies like this. It's like trying to convince flat earthers using General Relativity. If you believe the earth is round, you don't need GR, and if you don't, it doesn't help. So it goes back to what you believe, and the statistics is clever decoration.
- nh23423fefe 2y agoYou would only make this error if you think the purpose of scientific research is to change irrational minds. That hypothesis is wrong. Your finding isn't really grounded in anything reasonable.
- rich_sasha 2y agoThe purpose of scientific research is to establish novel facts. I'm saying this hinges on belief, both for scientists and for astrology believers, and thus cannot really establish any novel facts.
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- tzs 2y agoWhen I was a teen interested in amateur astronomy I actually considered learning astrology in order to learn how to calculate the positions of the planets. My thought was that material written for astronomers assumed a level of math and physics sophistication that I did not yet have, whereas material written for astrologers would be written for people who didn't an astronomer-level understanding of math and physics and thus take a more "blindly follow this algorithm" approach. This was in the mid '70s and I was not able to find anything in my county library that actually told how astrologers find planetary positions, so nothing ever came of it. I had a similar idea 20 years later when I took a break from programming to go to law school. Some thing in a couple of my tax law classes were unclear to me and I really wanted to see how they were actually applied. I went to the university bookstore and found the section with textbooks for the university's business school and bought the textbook for their taxes for accountants class. After reading the examples and explanations there I then found the corresponding material in my law texts much more approachable.