6 ms·

That's pretty cheap. An unguided artillery shell is about $3000 each, plus the logistics of getting it there. Guided munition is in the 6 figure range. In thes

That's pretty cheap. An unguided artillery shell is about $3000 each, plus the logistics of getting it there. Guided munition is in the 6 figure range. In these drone attacks Ukraine seems to now routinely sacrifice multiple drones to take out one target. If it's just about cost, $1k per drone to make it more likely to succeed is a great deal.

dmix 2y ago
I remember reading that Ukraine loses about 3-4 drones for every successful hit. Higher in EW heavy regions. Beyond EW the losses are because they can't find targets within battery time (these are always 1 way drones regardless), they miss, they get shot down, etc. Eliminating EW loses of the other drones per target could make it worth it by itself.
- anovikov 2y ago
  If that was true, Russia would have been utterly defeated a long time ago. Ukraine uses about 4000 drones per day, even if a successful hit meant just 1 infantryman killed or incapacitated, Russians will be at the negotiation table, at least, because no way they can sustain 1000 people per day in irrecoverable losses.
  - theblobawakens 2y ago
    Russia's professional army plus reservists was about 2.1M before the war. Add 2-300K volunteers who signed up since to replace professional soldiers departing, out of patriotism or because pay was increased 3-4x. Even with all that, Russia still won't have drafted anybody in the pool of about 20M ex-conscripts who went through basic military service in their youth. They can absolutely sustain that and much more from a purely military point of view. Of course, if you involve public opinion in these matters, 1'000 a day is indeed a bit much for what is not a defensive war.
    - racional 2y ago
      10000 a day is indeed a bit much for what is not a defensive war. As is 10 percent of annual GDP.
    - some_random 2y ago
      Over the ~10 years of US involvement in Vietnam, the US had 58k dead and 150k hospitalized. In less than two and a half years of SMO, Russia has had probably around 315k casualties? 61k have been confirmed dead for sure. The other thing to consider is that sure Russia had 2.1M professional soldiers and reservists, but how many knew how to fly a Ka-50? How many were well trained tank gunners? How many were competent, experienced members of the NCO corps, or well trained and equipped paratroopers, or artillery officers? How many are left, and how many have to have their positions go empty or be filled by someone new without adequate experience?
    - fpoling 2y ago
      It appeared Russia cannot sustain the losses long term. The sign-up bonus for volunteers during the last year increased by factor of 10 from 2k USD to over 20K. Plus Russia has severe deficit of working force for anything that required non-trivial amount of training. They cannot afford a new mobilization wave for this reason.
  - lupusreal 2y ago
    > Ukraine uses about 4000 drones per day Use, or expend?
    - JoachimS 2y ago
      Mainly expend. Most of them, after release lives for minutes up to half an hour or so. Often they aren't even charged to full capacity.
      - anovikov 2y ago
        I think most electric drones can't stay in the air for half an hour. Why not charged to full capacity?
      - anovikov 2y ago
        Also... if it is true that drones live for less than 2 sorties on average, that makes their returnable use pointless because launching them one-off doubles the range as they don't need to store charge for return trip, don't you think? Also i assume, primary cells that are not rechargeable, can have higher capacity than rechargeable batteries.
        pbmonster 2y ago
        > Also i assume, primary cells that are not rechargeable, can have higher capacity than rechargeable batteries. Interesting, do you have more information on state of the art non-rechargeable batteries? I would assume they just use normal LiPo cells anyway and just charge them once, ideally at the factory. Cheap, light (compared to the warhead at least), can deliver enough current.
        mgc_mgc 2y ago
        Zinc-Air primary cells have about twice the energy density of Li-ion cells. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_battery_types https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_batte...
      - 2y ago
  - JoachimS 2y ago
    Russia is in fact loosing more than 1000 people per day. It has for many months. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-highest-monthly-losses-ukraine-casualties-1907093 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-highest-monthly-losses-ukrai... They also loose equipment at a staggering rate. From the start of the invasion 2022 until end of July, they have lost more than 570 000 soldiers, 8000 tanks and 16000 artillery systems. Oh and also 38 war ships and one submarine - against a country that didn't have a navy at the start of the invasion. Drones is ammunition and is used in air, land and sea.
    - CapricornNoble 2y ago
      [flagged]
      - genman 2y ago
        How much spreading Russian talking points pays these days?
        lawlessone 2y ago
        That's not all he's spreading.. edit: though largely it is.
        MC995 2y ago
        Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        lawlessone 2y ago
        It's going on this website whether people would like to admit it or not.
        genman 2y ago
        Why should I waste my valuable time to answer anything meaningful to an obvious propaganda comment? Such comments are what are degrading HN discussion.
  - narrator 2y ago
    "4000 drones per day" : The future is killer robots. Everywhere. I could see a sci-fi future where we visit some planet somewhere and when we land there are no living beings anywhere. Just killer robot factories pumping out more killer robots fighting an endless war with each other fully autonomously. That's another AGI super intelligence end state. You get two AGI super intelligences fighting a war against each other and they fight until the entire planet is turned into killer drones and explosives. A plausible form of paper clip maximizer.
moring 2y ago
What makes an artillery shell so expensive compared to a drone?
- kayodelycaon 2y ago
  Artillery shells are quite complicated. Aerodynamics, must land whee it’s supposed to. Not exploding when fired. Fuse needs to explode as designed. They are big chunks of metal that needs to be identically machined to tight tolerances and filled with explosives and a fuse. $3k is pretty cheap for custom work. Then you need to transport and store them. You can buy drones off the shelf made with cheap components.
  - sqeaky 2y ago
    So you're saying artillery shells would be cheaper if I could get them on Amazon Prime with free same day delivery?
    - klyrs 2y ago
      [x] this item is a gift [ ] gift wrap this item
    - mrguyorama 2y ago
      What you're actually asking is "Would artillery shells be cheaper if we could offshore all the actual work to cast, machine, and fill an artillery shell to China and then just ship the end result over by boat?" And the answer is yes, China makes their artillery shells cheaper. American labor is very expensive and American military manufacturers tend towards low volume nowadays, because they don't trust the government to commit to 1 million shells a year for two decades, because every time there's a changing of the guard in the whitehouse, plans get gutted seemingly as a "Fuck you" to anyone who worked with the previous admin. That being said, I'd like to see a citation for the $3k figure being thrown around. The number I've seen is more like $800
      - rcostin2k2 2y ago
imtringued 2y ago
The payload of a drone is nowhere near that of an artillery shell and even if it was, you're going to spend X+$1000+$3000 instead of just $3000, where x is the cost of the drone.
fennecbutt 2y ago
Not cheap just for the wire, consumer drones with autonomous functionality is better realistically. It's $80,000 for a switch blade drone, which can loiter for 40 minutes. Buying a consumer fixed wing drone with similar flight time costs <$1000.

dmix 2y ago

I remember reading that Ukraine loses about 3-4 drones for every successful hit. Higher in EW heavy regions. Beyond EW the losses are because they can't find targets within battery time (these are always 1 way drones regardless), they miss, they get shot down, etc. Eliminating EW loses of the other drones per target could make it worth it by itself.

anovikov 2y ago
If that was true, Russia would have been utterly defeated a long time ago. Ukraine uses about 4000 drones per day, even if a successful hit meant just 1 infantryman killed or incapacitated, Russians will be at the negotiation table, at least, because no way they can sustain 1000 people per day in irrecoverable losses.
- theblobawakens 2y ago
  Russia's professional army plus reservists was about 2.1M before the war. Add 2-300K volunteers who signed up since to replace professional soldiers departing, out of patriotism or because pay was increased 3-4x. Even with all that, Russia still won't have drafted anybody in the pool of about 20M ex-conscripts who went through basic military service in their youth. They can absolutely sustain that and much more from a purely military point of view. Of course, if you involve public opinion in these matters, 1'000 a day is indeed a bit much for what is not a defensive war.
  - racional 2y ago
    10000 a day is indeed a bit much for what is not a defensive war. As is 10 percent of annual GDP.
  - some_random 2y ago
    Over the ~10 years of US involvement in Vietnam, the US had 58k dead and 150k hospitalized. In less than two and a half years of SMO, Russia has had probably around 315k casualties? 61k have been confirmed dead for sure. The other thing to consider is that sure Russia had 2.1M professional soldiers and reservists, but how many knew how to fly a Ka-50? How many were well trained tank gunners? How many were competent, experienced members of the NCO corps, or well trained and equipped paratroopers, or artillery officers? How many are left, and how many have to have their positions go empty or be filled by someone new without adequate experience?
  - fpoling 2y ago
    It appeared Russia cannot sustain the losses long term. The sign-up bonus for volunteers during the last year increased by factor of 10 from 2k USD to over 20K. Plus Russia has severe deficit of working force for anything that required non-trivial amount of training. They cannot afford a new mobilization wave for this reason.
- lupusreal 2y ago
  > Ukraine uses about 4000 drones per day Use, or expend?
  - JoachimS 2y ago
    Mainly expend. Most of them, after release lives for minutes up to half an hour or so. Often they aren't even charged to full capacity.
    - anovikov 2y ago
      I think most electric drones can't stay in the air for half an hour. Why not charged to full capacity?
    - anovikov 2y ago
      Also... if it is true that drones live for less than 2 sorties on average, that makes their returnable use pointless because launching them one-off doubles the range as they don't need to store charge for return trip, don't you think? Also i assume, primary cells that are not rechargeable, can have higher capacity than rechargeable batteries.
      - pbmonster 2y ago
        > Also i assume, primary cells that are not rechargeable, can have higher capacity than rechargeable batteries. Interesting, do you have more information on state of the art non-rechargeable batteries? I would assume they just use normal LiPo cells anyway and just charge them once, ideally at the factory. Cheap, light (compared to the warhead at least), can deliver enough current.
        mgc_mgc 2y ago
        Zinc-Air primary cells have about twice the energy density of Li-ion cells. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_battery_types https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_batte...
    - 2y ago
- JoachimS 2y ago
  Russia is in fact loosing more than 1000 people per day. It has for many months. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-highest-monthly-losses-ukraine-casualties-1907093 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-highest-monthly-losses-ukrai... They also loose equipment at a staggering rate. From the start of the invasion 2022 until end of July, they have lost more than 570 000 soldiers, 8000 tanks and 16000 artillery systems. Oh and also 38 war ships and one submarine - against a country that didn't have a navy at the start of the invasion. Drones is ammunition and is used in air, land and sea.
  - CapricornNoble 2y ago
    [flagged]
    - genman 2y ago
      How much spreading Russian talking points pays these days?
      - lawlessone 2y ago
        That's not all he's spreading.. edit: though largely it is.
      - MC995 2y ago
        Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        lawlessone 2y ago
        It's going on this website whether people would like to admit it or not.
        genman 2y ago
        Why should I waste my valuable time to answer anything meaningful to an obvious propaganda comment? Such comments are what are degrading HN discussion.
- narrator 2y ago
  "4000 drones per day" : The future is killer robots. Everywhere. I could see a sci-fi future where we visit some planet somewhere and when we land there are no living beings anywhere. Just killer robot factories pumping out more killer robots fighting an endless war with each other fully autonomously. That's another AGI super intelligence end state. You get two AGI super intelligences fighting a war against each other and they fight until the entire planet is turned into killer drones and explosives. A plausible form of paper clip maximizer.

moring 2y ago

What makes an artillery shell so expensive compared to a drone?

kayodelycaon 2y ago
Artillery shells are quite complicated. Aerodynamics, must land whee it’s supposed to. Not exploding when fired. Fuse needs to explode as designed. They are big chunks of metal that needs to be identically machined to tight tolerances and filled with explosives and a fuse. $3k is pretty cheap for custom work. Then you need to transport and store them. You can buy drones off the shelf made with cheap components.
- sqeaky 2y ago
  So you're saying artillery shells would be cheaper if I could get them on Amazon Prime with free same day delivery?
  - klyrs 2y ago
    [x] this item is a gift [ ] gift wrap this item
  - mrguyorama 2y ago
    What you're actually asking is "Would artillery shells be cheaper if we could offshore all the actual work to cast, machine, and fill an artillery shell to China and then just ship the end result over by boat?" And the answer is yes, China makes their artillery shells cheaper. American labor is very expensive and American military manufacturers tend towards low volume nowadays, because they don't trust the government to commit to 1 million shells a year for two decades, because every time there's a changing of the guard in the whitehouse, plans get gutted seemingly as a "Fuck you" to anyone who worked with the previous admin. That being said, I'd like to see a citation for the $3k figure being thrown around. The number I've seen is more like $800
    - rcostin2k2 2y ago

imtringued 2y ago

The payload of a drone is nowhere near that of an artillery shell and even if it was, you're going to spend X+$1000+$3000 instead of just $3000, where x is the cost of the drone.

fennecbutt 2y ago

Not cheap just for the wire, consumer drones with autonomous functionality is better realistically. It's $80,000 for a switch blade drone, which can loiter for 40 minutes. Buying a consumer fixed wing drone with similar flight time costs <$1000.