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I'm Bearish OpenAI
- gnabgib 2y agoWhy wouldn't you just vouch author's submission? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40377634 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40377634
- toomuchtodo 2y agoSome users don’t have vouch capabilities.
- secstate 2y agoWhat is vouching?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- gnabgib 2y agohttps://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html#dead https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html#dead Dead posts aren't displayed by default, but you can see them all by turning on 'showdead' in your profile. If you see a [dead] post that shouldn't be dead, you can vouch for it. Click on its timestamp to go to its page, then click 'vouch' at the top. When enough users do this, the post is restored. There's a small karma threshold before vouch links appear.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- Atotalnoob 2y agoMan, substack is going for all the dark patterns. 2 full page ads to subscribe and 1 half page ad for substack itself.
- msoad 2y agoIt’s not just OpenAI. I think AI winter is coming much sooner than expected. Throwing more compute at the current solution is not yielding better results it seems. Reasoning will not be solved by a bigger LLM
- Davidzheng 2y agoTo quote Geoff Hinton "AI winter !!!!????"
- CamperBob2 2y agoWhat did he mean by that?
- bloppe 2y agohttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter It's been a pattern in AI research since the 70s. Sure, the current boom is unprecedented, but that doesn't mean there won't be a relative bust. AI winter doesn't mean chatgpt will disappear. It just means research funding may get significantly scaled back of the hundred billion dollar investments of today don't generate trillion dollar returns
- CamperBob2 2y agoI know. What did Hinton mean by his comment, though?
- tim333 2y agoAfter spending more time researching than I really should have done I found the quote. https://x.com/pmddomingos/status/1728628326968021100 https://x.com/pmddomingos/status/1728628326968021100 He was expressing doubt that there is an AI winter near. He's more of the: >Geoffrey Hinton, dubbed the 'Godfather of AI,' warns technology will be smarter than humans in five years" school of thought. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12610845/geoffrey-hinton-godfather-ai-warns-smarter-humans.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12610845/geo...
- __loam 2y agoI had this exact conversation with a friend of mine who was a lot more optimistic about the tech than I am and he agreed. Big tech is going to eat these guys and we're going to be left with some useful foundation models after we get over the trough of disappointment.
- sumedh 2y ago> Big tech is going to eat these guys Like what Apple did with Siri?
- xyst 2y agoThe bust of ai will be glorious. I just hope it’s the VCs are the one holding the bag instead of the tax payer or retail investor.
- ergocoder 2y agoMost AI companies are not building AGI. LLM already has tons of profitable utilities.
- dns_snek 2y agoHow much of it is actually going to be profitable and/or useful over the long term? 1%, 0.1%, 0.01%? There's definitely going to be a bust. AI hype is far beyond anything crypto has ever seen while the vast majority of it provides very little value.
- ergocoder 2y agoMost companies fail, AI or not. It's also hard to say since the numbers are not public. However, some companies do publish their margin. For example, Interior AI has 99% profit margins: https://twitter.com/levelsio/status/1773443837320380759 https://twitter.com/levelsio/status/1773443837320380759 -- and it is run by one person.
- sashank_1509 2y agoThis is such a bad analysis, I don’t even know where to start. Let me start with the strongest point that this article tries to make: 1. Big Tech will catch up to OpenAI, and yet one year after GPT-4 release, no one has caught up to OpenAI, in fact the only model that beat gpt4 on lmsys is gpt4o lol. This is on benchmarks, if you see in User Space, OpenAI is > 80% and now with gpt4o being released for free, (there’s no other model that comes even close that’s available for free) they will cement their lead even more. 2. Some weird argument about compute becoming prohibitively expensive. MSFT has already promised to build a 100 billion data center. If your bar for judging success is AGI then maybe, but with the compute we already have a useful AI that generals billions in annualized revenue for OpenAI. So I’m not sure why you’d think this won’t keep improving for at least the next decade. There are so many jobs that can be automated before we reach AGI 3. OpenAI lost cracked researchers. OpenAI lost people in the super alignment team, none of the top research leads who implemented GPT4 have left. Ilya arguably was just coasting for the past few years (he’s not credited with any specific contribution in gpt 4 or 3.5). The most capable people in OpenAI are still present at OpenAI so yeah not a great article
- visarga 2y ago> and yet one year after GPT-4 release, no one has caught up to OpenAI You're wrong, Claude 3 Opus beat OpenAI’s GPT-4 in Elo rating just a month ago. They since lost the top position, but they are at ELO 1246 compared to GPT-4 at 1250 and GPT-4o at 1287. They are bottlenecked at GPT-4 level with small variations. That's the issue. Why have they stopped advancing? The gap between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 is so much wider than that between GPT-4 and GPT-4o https://medium.com/@simeon.emanuilov/claude-and-gpt-4-top-leaderboard-in-elo-rating-benchmark-of-llms-dfebebae987c https://medium.com/@simeon.emanuilov/claude-and-gpt-4-top-le... The explanation is that we have exhausted the sources of high quality human text. All providers train on essentially the same corpus. Architecture variation doesn't matter. Data is king, and AI used up all the human data. My take on the path forward - it is easier to imitate than to innovate. LLMs up to now are mostly imitative. In order to become innovative they need to learn from things, not just from people. It's a social process, based on evolution of ideas. It's not unlike DNA and language, intelligence is social. It takes a village to raise a child, it takes a whole world to train an AGI. Humans also take 20 years of experience based training before becoming truly innovative at the edge of human knowledge.
- binkethy 2y agoEliminating creative jobs is not progress, by most people's standards. Its a beancounter fantasy, but causes us to question all roles further up the chain as well. Perhaps someone can make c-suite jobs obsolete instead? Perhaps computers can have sex for us as well, they may even perform better. At some point one has to confront the human mammal, society, and the planet that we are a lifeform on, that we are rapidly rendering uninhabitable for no reason other than boring ideology.
- pas 2y agoif it can "make GDP go up" then it is good. it's a political question how to distribute the economic surplus. it always was. similarly, it's up to us to a large degree where we spend our money. if there are going to be enough people to want non-AI art, then there will be a number of creative jobs.
- dvfjsdhgfv 2y ago> if there are going to be enough people to want non-AI art Well, maybe this will change one day, but now I don't know a single person who wants "AI art". After the initial hype with magic images created with Midjourney wore off, it's left what it is: boring, repetitive, a few similar looks, cheap. Just like Chinese plastic goods.
- jononor 2y agoNot so may people want "AI art" (branded as such). But a good chunk people use generative image model to "commission" works that they are interested in - but would be to expensive to get a human artist to do it. There are many niches/subcultures where this is popular, from anime to cyberpunk, to fantasy, computer games, role playing games, etc. It might be that there is general appeal to be found in images created with AI tool (by a human tool-wielder, the actual artist). But people want to buy art from human artists, have a back story - for there to be a "meaning" - a why. Some initial research: https://www.sciencenorway.no/art-artificial-intelligence/people-liked-ai-art-when-they-thought-it-was-made-by-humans/2337417 https://www.sciencenorway.no/art-artificial-intelligence/peo...
- smugma 2y agoI couldn’t read any more once I got to: “Chipotle, an $87B company that makes food that you can easily make in your house“ I’ve made carnitas; it takes about six hours.
- shepherdjerred 2y agoAs a single person, making Chipotle at home (which I've done) is both time consuming and inconvenient. Chipotle's menu has a _lot_ of fresh ingredients. You can't really prep any of it more than a few days ahead of time, with the exception of the proteins and maybe fajita veggies/pureed salsas which you can freeze. Everything else has to be fresh, and it would take at least an hour or two to prep + cook: the lettuce, cilantro lime rice, guac. Or, I can just go to Chipotle and pay $15 (unreasonable for many, but I've prioritized healthier eating) for a meal.
- renegade-otter 2y agoI was "trained" by Blue Apron and I do OK, but making Mexican food has been a pain in the ass and always a failure. The balance of flavors that you have to hit is just so... precise. It seems simple but it's a very hard cuisine, and I envy people for whom this kitchen is a breeze.
- dgellow 2y agoI’m myself not bearish, but I think seeing what companies do with the current OpenAI APIs is pretty disappointing. I found out today that Logi+, a software to manage your Logitech devices has a “prompt builder” and can help you write your emails?! Couldn’t they find something more interesting to do with something as powerful as GPT4? https://www.logitech.com/en-us/software/logi-ai-prompt-builder.html https://www.logitech.com/en-us/software/logi-ai-prompt-build... I wouldn’t be surprised if my bank and insurance applications implements exactly the same features. And all of this will be removed in a few months or years when they realized it’s a terrible, expensive idea. We will likely have a down to earth moment where companies who poorly invested in AI products will want to cut their losses.
- 1vuio0pswjnm7 2y agoImagine working toward a milestone that has no final, universally-accepted definition. How does one know when this milestone is reached. Then imagine that the people tasked with reaching the milestone are also the ones responsible for creating a test for whether it has been reached.
- rldjbpin 2y agothe ai reckoning being discussed is bound to happen imo when the current approaches plateau and leave the gen pop disappointed. in terms of openai vs real, open initiatives, there are two things in favour of the former: - the startup playbook of burning vc/investor funds till you make it - the use of human-enriched and/or private datasets, supported by the previous point i see a couple bottlenecks to current efforts in reaching the best results: - hardware/software architechture limitations - the levels of abstraction needed for training the largest models are sacrificing efficiency for achieving the newest targets. in an ideal world, all gpus in the pool would be fully utilized, and each underlying hardware used to its fullest. currently i'd wager we are only halfway there. software stack hegemony doesn't help here either. - model architecture approach vs goal - it is amazing how much can be achieved from vectorizing everything and predicting the next block in the sequence. however, it can only do so much from what we can see thus far. i don't have any answers to what can replace it, but i can at least assert that the current approach does not fully leverage the raw digital data that exists out there. while we ride this wave, i am glad money is being spent in research and tooling here, and i am bullish about people doing more with their devices going forward.