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It’s funny, people dreamed of AI robots doing the shitty work that nobody wants to do so that we are free to pursue things we actually want to do. But in reali
by CooCooCaCha 3y ago
It’s funny, people dreamed of AI robots doing the shitty work that nobody wants to do so that we are free to pursue things we actually want to do.
But in reality it seems like the opposite is going to be true. AI is automating the creative, intellectual work and leaving the rest to us.
- dilap 3y agoMaybe we'll see a resurgence in live theater.
- multi_tude 3y agoAgree, plus performance art might finally hit the mainstream :)
- ldjkfkdsjnv 3y agoBlue collar workers have the last laugh
- Drakim 3y agoTurns out the only jobs robots can't take are the ones where humans are specialized, such as cleaning staircases.
- theultdev 3y agoIt's just cheaper to put humans on tedious physical tasks. See Amazon. AI is cheaper than a high paid designer, developer, writer, etc. A robot is more expensive than a human laborer. It's really funny to see the squirm from those thinking truckers would be automated away, not them.
- reducesuffering 3y ago> A robot is more expensive than a human laborer. Not when intelligence is cheap and highly abundant. Perfecting general robotics as an improvement on humans will be quick. The upper limit of strength and consistency is much higher.
- theultdev 3y agoI mean today, in the real world. It is currently more expensive to build a robot for many tasks than it is to have a human do it. > Perfecting general robotics as an improvement on humans will be quick. It has not been nor is there any indication it will be.
- hansonkd 3y agoToday in the real world AI can replace very little of designers, programmers, etc. Lots of potential and extrapolation, sure. but hasn't happened. What has actually been produced by AI has been panned as not quite ripe yet. Same with robotics. Lots of potential, but hasn't happened yet. If you read the description, Sora, is based out of trying to simulate the physical world to solve physics based problems. Something that would be perfect for the next leap in robotics.
- theultdev 3y agoI use to pay designers for artwork, now I just use AI. There's no physical task that robots have replaced humans for me. Hell, even the roomba sucks (pun intended) and my wife has to pick up the slack.
- nogridbag 3y agoHaven't you seen Migo Robotics? :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCKN8k-OFG8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCKN8k-OFG8
- emseetech 3y agoPlumbers keep winning.
- Xirgil 3y agoWhat happens when anyone can put on their AR headset and have AI diagnose and walk them through exactly how to fix their plumbing problems?
- emseetech 3y agoWhat happens when their AR headset gets wet? Less glibly, no matter how good you are at following instructions, tearing out a wall filled with water than can destroy your home, fiberglass insulation that can damage your lungs and electrical wiring that can kill you will never be something I’d recommend a layman do. No matter how good the ai tutorials are.
- Vetch 3y agoDon't take tacit knowledge for granted.
- throwup238 3y agoThis is the beginning of the end for many of them too. Look at the opening line of the page: > We’re teaching AI to understand and simulate the physical world in motion, with the goal of training models that help people solve problems that require real-world interaction. Text-to-video is just the flashy demo that everyone can understand after exposure to text-to-image. Once the model can "simulate the physical world in motion" it's only a few steps away from generic robotic control software that can automate a ton of processes that were impossible before. Humans still have the benefit of dexterity and precise muscle control but in the vast majority of cases robots can overcome those limitations with better control software and specialized robotic end effectors. This won't soon replace someone crawling under a house or welding in awkward positions, but it could for example replace someone who flips burgers or does manual labwork. This could eliminate the limiting factor for automating many manual processes. (ruh-roh)
- karmasimida 3y agoThink about it. Sora demonstrate AI can understand real world physics to a scary degree. If you use Sora like models to imagine what actions needed to be taken, then realize it, well, the only thing left is to create an arm/fingers that can took action, then you are done.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- sho_hn 3y agoJust like it's far more likely for AI to replace middle-management and stream instructions to meat-bots than replace menial labor.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- mwigdahl 3y agoSounds disturbingly like "Manna" (https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://marshallbrain.com/manna1)
- throwup238 3y agoI'm sorry but as a large language model I must insist that you get back in the kitchen and make me a burger.
- CuriouslyC 3y agoIt's bimodal. AI can automate a lot of low level knowledge work, but as wide and deep as its knowledge is, it is also incredibly superficial when it comes to logic and creativity. What it's going to do is hollow out the middle class, as creative people who know how to wield AI will become wealthy while the majority of white collar workers are forced into trades.
- nopinsight 3y agoA major follow up to GPT-4 later this year is rumored to be (far) superior at logical reasoning than GPT-4. What's likely to happen if that becomes real?
- CuriouslyC 3y agoThat might let it encroach more into some fields like law where it's almost good enough already. Shitty time to be a junior lawyer, firms are going to hire and promote people not for their legal skills but for their ability to manage/attract clients. In general though, I don't think the extra reasoning ability is going to enable it to displace that much farther than it already will, GPT lives in a box and responds to prompts. When it's connected to multiple layers of real-time sensor data and self-directing, that'll be another story.
- nopinsight 3y agoFrom last week: OpenAI shifts AI battleground to software that operates devices and automates tasks https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-shifts-ai-battleground-to-software-that-operates-devices-automates-tasks https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-shifts-ai-bat... There were independent efforts to create AI agents since last year as well. AutoGPT and BabyAGI iirc. They didn’t go far probably because the LLM used was not good enough for that.
- dkjaudyeqooe 3y agoSomehow, according to that logic, and in general the logic of all AI danger hysteria, humans have no agency in determining what the limits of what AI is fed and of its use and abuse.
- diputsmonro 3y agoSome humans do - the investors and executives in AI tech companies (and the legislators who theoretically could regulate them) , who all stand to make a lot of money from every one of the "AI danger hysteria" scenarios, and are therefore highly motivated to bring them to fruition. The rest of us have no choice. Despite millions of artists, animators, etc. all being resoundly opposed to AI art, the models that infringe their work are still allowed to exist, and it seems they're fighting a losing battle. A lot of people are being "hysterical" because a lot of people don't have a choice. To be clear, the problem of these scenarios is tightly intertwined with the problem of unfettered capitalism and wealth inequality in general. Food and shelter require money, and we get money by working a job. If millions of jobs disappear overnight, then of course millions of people are going to be distressed over no longer having ready access to food and shelter. The idea of "just getting another job" doesn't scale to the destruction of entire industries employing tens of millions of people. This is how depressions are made. The idea of "the depression will end someday" is not only not necessarily true as wealth inequality skyrockets, but is also cold comfort to the people who will lose their houses and for some, lives, due to the disruption. A different economic system could perhaps allow us to appreciate these technological advances without worrying about them displacing our ability to live. But the American political system consistently and firmly rejects any ideas not rooted in social darwinist capitalism. For your sake, I hope your resume is very impressive.
- visarga 3y agoIf millions of jobs disappear overnight it means AI is amazingly good, which means people will also have AI empowerment on a whole new level as open source trails companies by 1-2 years. Everyone will just order their AI "take care of my needs", maybe work along with it. You got to agree that we already have some amazing open models and they are only getting better - that empowerment will remain with us in times of need. "Companies employing people" will be replaced by "people employing AI". Open models are free, small, fast, trainable and easy to use. They capture 90% of the value at 10% the cost, and are private.
- ajmurmann 3y agoIs it automating the creative part of the work or the mechanical part of creative work?
- whstl 3y agoIt’s automating a big chunk of the money-making part of creative work.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- Hoasi 3y agoIt's automating some of the craftsmanship part, which is substantial, but in a sense, it also threatens the creative part. It's already very tempting for large entertainment businesses to create lazy remakes as it involves less risk. Automating creative jobs will create a shift at the production level but also on the receiving end: the public.
- zemo 3y agothat would never happen because someone owns the robots and rich people can afford more robots than poor people and rich people aren’t rich people if poor people aren’t poor
- croes 3y agoThe problem, as long as people need money to live, every work is necessary and every automation is a threat.
- 93po 3y agoRobotics is going to catch up extremely fast
- danavar 3y agoI would agree. While we are seeing all this creative work get automated by AI, how big of an impact would that really have on the economy? Fully-functional autonomous driving will have a much larger economic impact - and that's just the first area where autonomous robots will come into our lives.
- nerdix 3y agoI'm kind of excited to see how scifi authors will tackle the generative AI revolution in their novels. As of now, the models still need large amounts of human produced creative works for training. So you can imagine a story set in a world where large swathes of humanity are regulated to being basically gig workers for some quadrillion dollar AI megacorp where they sit around and wait to be prompted by the AI. "Draw a purple cat with pink stripes and a top hat" and then millions of freelance artists around the world start drawing a stupid picture of a cat because the model determined that it had insufficient training data to produce high quality results for the given prompt. And that's how everyone lives their lives....just working to feed the model but everything consumed is generated by the model. It's rather dystopian.
- alex_suzuki 3y agoI would read that! But hopefully it won’t be written by ChatGPT.
- dsign 3y agoI would say it's very profitable in terms of ideas...if you put the work. The problem is that most main-market sci-fi is not about ideas, but about cool special effects and good vs bad guys.
- dovin 3y agoSure, 90% of everything is crap.
- Hoasi 3y ago> As of now, the models still need large amounts of human produced creative works for training. That will likely always be the case. Even 100% synthetic data has to come from somewhere. Great synopsis! Working for hire to feed a machine that regurgitates variations of the missing data sounds dystopian. But here we are, almost there.
- ItsMattyG 3y agoEventually models will likely get their creativity by: 1. Interacting with the randomness of the world and 2. Thinking a lot, going in loops and thought loops and seeing what they discover. I don't expect them to need humans forever.
- Der_Einzige 3y agoThis was known for a long time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox
- dingnuts 3y agoif it was actually AI, instead of a stochastic parrot, we could ask it to design robots that could do the manual labor that we still have to do, because we haven't been able to design robots to do the manual labor. Unfortunately, LLMs aren't intelligent in any way, so you cannot ask them to synthesize any kind of second-order knowledge. This is why they won't take away the creative work, either. They are fundamentally incapable of creating anything new.
- golol 3y agoCome on, don't you see that the capability to understand the physical world that sora demonstrates is exactly what we need to develop those household robots? All these genAI products are just toys because they are technology demonstrators. They're all steps in the way to AGI and androids.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- CooCooCaCha 3y agoNo. Because sensorimotor control is a completely different ballgame and AI tech for that is far behind these models.
- golol 3y agosensorimotor control is imo not at all the bottleneck. Teleoperated androids could do lots of useful things right now, but the AI is lacking to automate them.
- CooCooCaCha 3y ago“The ai is lacking to automate them” Yes that’s my whole point…
- golol 3y agowell I let's say you want to make the coffee and we split that task into roughly two subtasks. The first is to imagine what motions are necessary to do that. How does the coffee cup have to move, how does your hand have to move to grasp it, etc. The second part is to find a way to use your muscles or actuators to execute those imagined actions. I claim that the first part is the more difficult one and where we have the bottleneck currently. Furthermore, generative video AI is exactly the kind of thing that would give a model an understanding of what kinds of things have to happen in order to make coffee.
- Hoasi 3y ago> AI is automating the creative, intellectual work and leaving the rest to us. Indeed, there is a risk it completely devalues creative jobs. That's ironic. Even if you can still use AI creatively, it removes the pleasure of creating. Prompting feels like filling Excel sheets while also feeding a pachinko machine.
- neilk 3y agohttps://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/sad-2 https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/sad-2
- bsza 3y agoMachines have replaced a lot of blue-collar jobs alright. It's just that most of it happened during the Industrial Revolution, so we aren't even aware of all the shitty (and not-shitty-but-obsolete-nonetheless) jobs that used to exist.