3 ms·

Dude, where's my self-driving car?

19 points by mfiguiere 3y ago

JR1427 3y ago
My pet theory is that people simply don't really want self-driving cars. Maybe we just like driving ourselves, even if by some definition it is "irrational"?
- peepee1982 3y ago
  Sure. I don't think it's irrational, either. But from time to time I really wish I could just take a nap and not have to pay attention on long trips.
  - JR1427 3y ago
    Yes, I think from time to time that would be nice. I don't have to drive long distances much, and if I do, it's usually for pleasure, not work, so I'm usually happy to be driving. For short distances I think I'd find it frustrating to not be the one driving. I get bored and fidgety as a passenger. (I like riding trains, though. I think being able to walk around makes me feel more comfortable about not being in control, as at least I can stand up when I want.)
- acdha 3y ago
  I think it’s irrational but from a different perspective: urban and suburban driving sucks - you’re paying a lot of money for a metal box you use to sit in traffic unable to do anything else, and do that for a fair fraction of your free time every day. Due to the 20th century decision to subsidize car travel at the expense of everything else, most people in at least North America don’t have a great alternative. That means there’s a HUGE market for the dream of having your own personal chauffeur because that means getting a non-trivial chunk of their waking hours back to play games, watch video, read, catch up on work, use social media, etc. I remember one of the researchers at Google mentioning testing a prototype on the trip out to Tahoe because not being awake meant you could do a ski trip over a normal two day weekend. That also means that a lot of people really want to be selling this product: millions of customers and they’re already used to paying thousands of dollars a year and taking out loans to get cool toys. That’s really going to skew judgement towards saying you’ll have it soon, even if you aren’t willing to cross the line into full Musk-level fraud.
  - nradov 3y ago
    There are already thousands of people who do ski trips from the SF Bay Area to Lake Tahoe over a normal two day weekend. It's kind of a grind due to heavy traffic and mountain road conditions but generally not too bad. And if you don't want to drive yourself then there are already scheduled charter buses that run every weekend.
    - acdha 3y ago
      The “kind of a grind” was the point: he valued being able to have a nice dinner, leave in the evening, and sleeping in the car to having to stressfully watch traffic. I think there are a LOT of people who’d pay for that.
      - eep_social 3y ago
        > have a nice dinner, leave in the evening, and sleeping Ah, like a train!
        acdha 3y ago
        Yes. A lot of this dream is wanting that convenience without having to share space with strangers.
        nradov 3y ago
        SF Bay Area residents can take an Amtrak train from Emeryville to Truckee. But the times aren't convenient for weekend ski trips, and it's a hassle to get from the train station to any ski resort. Only a real masochist would attempt that with children plus luggage. The ski buses are going to be a better option for most people who don't want to drive because they go direct to the resorts. https://shop.sportsbasement.com/collections/sports-basement-outdoors-ski-bus https://shop.sportsbasement.com/collections/sports-basement-...
- nradov 3y ago
  I don't particularly like driving myself and I really want a level 4+ autonomous car but like most consumers my wants are tempered by my limited budget. If I could get real self-driving as an option for about $3000 per year (amortized purchase price plus annual subscription) then I would take it, but if it's $10000 per year then forget it. For most people, driving just isn't a huge burden and they're already financially stretched just paying for regular cars that don't have a bunch of expensive sensors.
- illiac786 3y ago
  I would argue it's like home office before the pandemic: they just don't know they want it, but once it will be there — oh they'll know.
paxys 3y ago
What happened was that VCs and marketers took over the conversation and the researchers and engineers who were shouting from day 1 about how unrealistic all the "self driving cars by 2020" claims were were simply ignored by the general public. Even today I'd wager that >50% of the people actually working on the tech don't think level 5 autonomy is reachable in our lifetime.
- SpicyLemonZest 3y ago
  But what concretely do they mean when they think that? I haven't seen many people argue that some law of physics prohibits level 5 autonomy, or that there's some known plan which will take 100 years to execute. It seems to me that, when someone says level 5 autonomy isn't reachable in our lifetime, they're thinking something along the lines of "it's a really hard problem and I don't currently see a way to make progress".
plaidfuji 3y ago
I just bought a 2022 Kia Telluride and while taking it on our first long road trip, I discovered that it had full-on adaptive cruise control (embarrassed to admit I didn’t even know this while purchasing it). What this translates to is “make minor steering adjustments to stay in your lane, try to cruise at speed X but if there’s a car in front of you going slower, follow them at distance Y”. Intuitive steering wheel controls to adjust X and Y. As someone who has never driven a self-driving car, I was amazed. I thought this was something only in Teslas and high-end Mercedes. Now I’m discovering it’s basically becoming standard at a certain level of medium luxury. I do not need, nor do I want more than this. It enables me to take my eyes off the road for enough time to rest my eyes, stretch my back, feet, change the tunes, grab something from the back seat, then settle back in. This is world changing especially when driving at night - I would bet it close to doubles my tolerance for continuous driving. I’ll bet it’s great in stop and go traffic as well, if you don’t care about being cut off by a ton of people. Given my (pretty in-depth) level of understanding of current state of sensors, control algorithms and AI, this is an activity I trust a car manufacturer to reliably implement. I also like driving. I’ll check back in ten or so years to see how the whole self driving thing is coming along.
- AnotherGoodName 3y ago
  Wait until you realize Tesla is behind on self driving compared to the major manufacturers. I drove a Volvo rental that was a couple of years old that had level 3 self driving that vastly outperformed any Tesla self driving. And that wasn't even the latest tech from Volvo. Tesla are behind on self driving and they charge extra for it!
  - nradov 3y ago
    Volvo has never shipped level 3 autonomous driving. At most they are level 2. https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update The current market leader in terms of shipping products that are available for consumers to purchase is probably Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot. They are legitimately at level 3 and significantly ahead of Tesla in most (but not all) respects. https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a45326503/mercedes-benz-drive-pilot-review/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a45326503/mercedes-benz...
SpicyLemonZest 3y ago
I don't understand how you write this paragraph > Sure, there are some self-driving cars on the roads today. They’re in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Hamburg, and Beijing, among other cities. They’re operated by some of the biggest, most well-capitalized companies in the world. You can even ride in some of them. without immediately reconsidering the thesis.
- qarl 3y ago
  The cars work ONLY in areas which have been specifically mapped out, to the smallest detail. In that way, they're very much like a vehicle following a programmed track. A car that can drive in an unfamiliar situation like a human isn't possible yet.
  - SpicyLemonZest 3y ago
    It seems to me that going from "self-driving cars, what a wild idea" to "cars routinely drive themselves through city centers" in under a decade is a massive success story for the technology, even if they still have limitations that early boosters were hoping wouldn't be an issue. I'm not being coy here - I honestly do not understand how the author can look at the facts he's reported and believe that "the imminent arrival of safe, reliable self-driving technology" didn't happen.
    - qarl 3y ago
      It's because it was promised, a long time ago, and still has not arrived. If we hadn't been given the expectation of fully self driven cars, we wouldn't have come to expect it.
nortonham 3y ago
Dude, where's my efficient public transport?
8f2ab37a-ed6c 3y ago
Riding a Waymo is a delightful experience, zero complaints. It might be happening slower than expected, but it's happening.

19 points by mfiguiere 3y ago

My pet theory is that people simply don't really want self-driving cars. Maybe we just like driving ourselves, even if by some definition it is "irrational"?

peepee1982 3y ago
Sure. I don't think it's irrational, either. But from time to time I really wish I could just take a nap and not have to pay attention on long trips.
- JR1427 3y ago
  Yes, I think from time to time that would be nice. I don't have to drive long distances much, and if I do, it's usually for pleasure, not work, so I'm usually happy to be driving. For short distances I think I'd find it frustrating to not be the one driving. I get bored and fidgety as a passenger. (I like riding trains, though. I think being able to walk around makes me feel more comfortable about not being in control, as at least I can stand up when I want.)
acdha 3y ago
I think it’s irrational but from a different perspective: urban and suburban driving sucks - you’re paying a lot of money for a metal box you use to sit in traffic unable to do anything else, and do that for a fair fraction of your free time every day. Due to the 20th century decision to subsidize car travel at the expense of everything else, most people in at least North America don’t have a great alternative. That means there’s a HUGE market for the dream of having your own personal chauffeur because that means getting a non-trivial chunk of their waking hours back to play games, watch video, read, catch up on work, use social media, etc. I remember one of the researchers at Google mentioning testing a prototype on the trip out to Tahoe because not being awake meant you could do a ski trip over a normal two day weekend. That also means that a lot of people really want to be selling this product: millions of customers and they’re already used to paying thousands of dollars a year and taking out loans to get cool toys. That’s really going to skew judgement towards saying you’ll have it soon, even if you aren’t willing to cross the line into full Musk-level fraud.
- nradov 3y ago
  There are already thousands of people who do ski trips from the SF Bay Area to Lake Tahoe over a normal two day weekend. It's kind of a grind due to heavy traffic and mountain road conditions but generally not too bad. And if you don't want to drive yourself then there are already scheduled charter buses that run every weekend.
  - acdha 3y ago
    The “kind of a grind” was the point: he valued being able to have a nice dinner, leave in the evening, and sleeping in the car to having to stressfully watch traffic. I think there are a LOT of people who’d pay for that.
    - eep_social 3y ago
      > have a nice dinner, leave in the evening, and sleeping Ah, like a train!
      - acdha 3y ago
        Yes. A lot of this dream is wanting that convenience without having to share space with strangers.
      - nradov 3y ago
        SF Bay Area residents can take an Amtrak train from Emeryville to Truckee. But the times aren't convenient for weekend ski trips, and it's a hassle to get from the train station to any ski resort. Only a real masochist would attempt that with children plus luggage. The ski buses are going to be a better option for most people who don't want to drive because they go direct to the resorts. https://shop.sportsbasement.com/collections/sports-basement-outdoors-ski-bus https://shop.sportsbasement.com/collections/sports-basement-...
nradov 3y ago
I don't particularly like driving myself and I really want a level 4+ autonomous car but like most consumers my wants are tempered by my limited budget. If I could get real self-driving as an option for about $3000 per year (amortized purchase price plus annual subscription) then I would take it, but if it's $10000 per year then forget it. For most people, driving just isn't a huge burden and they're already financially stretched just paying for regular cars that don't have a bunch of expensive sensors.
illiac786 3y ago
I would argue it's like home office before the pandemic: they just don't know they want it, but once it will be there — oh they'll know.

paxys 3y ago

What happened was that VCs and marketers took over the conversation and the researchers and engineers who were shouting from day 1 about how unrealistic all the "self driving cars by 2020" claims were were simply ignored by the general public. Even today I'd wager that >50% of the people actually working on the tech don't think level 5 autonomy is reachable in our lifetime.

SpicyLemonZest 3y ago
But what concretely do they mean when they think that? I haven't seen many people argue that some law of physics prohibits level 5 autonomy, or that there's some known plan which will take 100 years to execute. It seems to me that, when someone says level 5 autonomy isn't reachable in our lifetime, they're thinking something along the lines of "it's a really hard problem and I don't currently see a way to make progress".

plaidfuji 3y ago

I just bought a 2022 Kia Telluride and while taking it on our first long road trip, I discovered that it had full-on adaptive cruise control (embarrassed to admit I didn’t even know this while purchasing it). What this translates to is “make minor steering adjustments to stay in your lane, try to cruise at speed X but if there’s a car in front of you going slower, follow them at distance Y”. Intuitive steering wheel controls to adjust X and Y. As someone who has never driven a self-driving car, I was amazed. I thought this was something only in Teslas and high-end Mercedes. Now I’m discovering it’s basically becoming standard at a certain level of medium luxury. I do not need, nor do I want more than this. It enables me to take my eyes off the road for enough time to rest my eyes, stretch my back, feet, change the tunes, grab something from the back seat, then settle back in. This is world changing especially when driving at night - I would bet it close to doubles my tolerance for continuous driving. I’ll bet it’s great in stop and go traffic as well, if you don’t care about being cut off by a ton of people. Given my (pretty in-depth) level of understanding of current state of sensors, control algorithms and AI, this is an activity I trust a car manufacturer to reliably implement. I also like driving. I’ll check back in ten or so years to see how the whole self driving thing is coming along.

AnotherGoodName 3y ago
Wait until you realize Tesla is behind on self driving compared to the major manufacturers. I drove a Volvo rental that was a couple of years old that had level 3 self driving that vastly outperformed any Tesla self driving. And that wasn't even the latest tech from Volvo. Tesla are behind on self driving and they charge extra for it!
- nradov 3y ago
  Volvo has never shipped level 3 autonomous driving. At most they are level 2. https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update The current market leader in terms of shipping products that are available for consumers to purchase is probably Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot. They are legitimately at level 3 and significantly ahead of Tesla in most (but not all) respects. https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a45326503/mercedes-benz-drive-pilot-review/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a45326503/mercedes-benz...

SpicyLemonZest 3y ago

I don't understand how you write this paragraph > Sure, there are some self-driving cars on the roads today. They’re in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Hamburg, and Beijing, among other cities. They’re operated by some of the biggest, most well-capitalized companies in the world. You can even ride in some of them. without immediately reconsidering the thesis.

qarl 3y ago
The cars work ONLY in areas which have been specifically mapped out, to the smallest detail. In that way, they're very much like a vehicle following a programmed track. A car that can drive in an unfamiliar situation like a human isn't possible yet.
- SpicyLemonZest 3y ago
  It seems to me that going from "self-driving cars, what a wild idea" to "cars routinely drive themselves through city centers" in under a decade is a massive success story for the technology, even if they still have limitations that early boosters were hoping wouldn't be an issue. I'm not being coy here - I honestly do not understand how the author can look at the facts he's reported and believe that "the imminent arrival of safe, reliable self-driving technology" didn't happen.
  - qarl 3y ago
    It's because it was promised, a long time ago, and still has not arrived. If we hadn't been given the expectation of fully self driven cars, we wouldn't have come to expect it.

nortonham 3y ago

Dude, where's my efficient public transport?

8f2ab37a-ed6c 3y ago

Riding a Waymo is a delightful experience, zero complaints. It might be happening slower than expected, but it's happening.